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WC: BUF@HOU


Manny/Patrick

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2 hours ago, -Hope- said:

this is fun. here's hoping we have a real dogfight for the division next year and the trash talk gets even nastier. punches are thrown. families are splintered.

It's been a while since we had one of these, it seems...that was actually fun, I haven't had a good argument here in...well, actually I got into it with a Saints fan in News this past week, so that's par for the course.

 

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Honestly, it's pretty simple IMO:

-When HOU has the ball, is Will Fuller playing?  If he is, it adds complexity to covering the pass game.  When he's not there, it's so much easier to take Nuk Hopkins to a background level (you can't wipe him off the board completely).    The HOU OL is still a mess, even with Tunsil, so having as many weapons for Watson to deploy is critical.  With a lead, they can then rely on Carlos Hyde more.

-When BUF has the ball, does the good Josh Allen, or the wild Josh Allen show up?   We've seen mostly the good version the 2H of the season, but Dr. Jekyll does show his face at times.    The other key-factor - Devin Singletary.  He adds such an element of danger to their run-based O.   John Brown, Cole Beasley and a late-surging Dawson Knox are the weapons to track for HOU, who really do get help if their entire CB corps returns.

-The kickers are interesting, in that BUF's Hauschka is automatic inside 45, but a prayer from longer.   Fairbairn has been wildly inconsistent.

As great as Watson is, BUF seems to be the more balanced team, and their pass rush & cover D is a horrible matchup for HOU if Fuller can't go.

I'm calling a straight 24-17 upset for BUF if Fuller isn't playing.  If Fuller is playing, I'm calling for a 27-24 type game...unclear who it is ATM.   

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If there's anyone that can hang with Hop it's White. Add on to it that Houston is a completely different offense when they don't have Fuller (who's doubtful)...I don't see how they're gonna move the ball consistently, especially when Buffalo also boasts a top 10 rushing defense to counter Houston's 9th ranked rushing attack. Watson's gonna have to pull some magic against a top 3 defense.

As for Buffalo's offense vs Houston's defense, I think Josh Allen can make enough plays against a bad secondary. Watt I believe is returning from a torn pec and even though he's an all-time player idk how effective he can be 2 months removed from it.

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The Texans have a point differential of -7 at home this year.

  • They were absolutely humiliated by the Broncos at home in Drew Lock's 2nd career start. (38-3 at one point)
  • They put up 10 points against Carolina at home in Kyle Allen's 3rd career start.
  • They put up 13 against the Jags at home (but Minshew helped his team to win better than other rookies to a whole 12 points in his 1st career start)

BOB cancels any possible home field advantage.

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