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Wildcard Round: VIKINGS (10-6) at Saints (13-3)


swede700

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here's a GREAT video breakdown by brett kollman on michael thomas:

 

if you don't have ~12 minutes to watch the whole thing, then the gist is that beyond thomas' individual ability (polished route runner, great ball skills, strong, etc.), the chemistry between brees and thomas and brees' ball placement make them an unstoppable connection. i highly recommend at least watching the breakdown of the play at 4:47.

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8 hours ago, swede700 said:

Outside of a miracle, it doesn't appear that Mackensie is going to be able to play, which means Hughes will have to move into the slot.  That sucks.  

While that sucks (I'm still of the opinion Mack was their best CB in coverage this season), more pressing is that Eric Kendricks got in a limited practice and is trending towards playing Sunday. I'm assuming Barr will be good to go after the stinger he suffered against GB.

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TIme to get rid of the Elvis sig.  The King got us into the playoffs, but a "bye week" loss to 'da Bears meant it was time to change things up, get back to my normal theme, and get a new sig that would lead us on our run through the next 4 game winning streak!  SKOL!  :)

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3 hours ago, Uncle Buck said:

TIme to get rid of the Elvis sig.  The King got us into the playoffs, but a "bye week" loss to 'da Bears meant it was time to change things up, get back to my normal theme, and get a new sig that would lead us on our run through the next 4 game winning streak!  SKOL!  :)

I take it those don't show up on mobile

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6 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

I take it those don't show up on mobile

They don't show up for me either, but I think I found a setting the first day I was on this board and disabled them. Maybe there is a similar setting for mobile to enable/disable. I personally found the signatures to be annoying, but I had to set one once after losing a sig line bet. I hope I don't still have that sig line. I think it said something about @SteelKing728 being a far superior evaluator of talent than me owing to the nature of the bet he won that related to what we expected out of some player.

Iirc, the terms of the bet only involved me having to display that sig for some period of time but that does not mean that SteelKing is not still a superior evaluator.

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I'm starting to actually believe the Vikings have a real shot to win this game. I have not watched the film, but according to Alex Boone's film review what New Orleans struggles with is outside zone runs and play action off that. Their corners struggle to set the edge and be physcial against RBs, especially toss plays out of bunch sets. Then the safeties and corners get very aggressive off play action and allow deep completions.

Also New Orleans is actually average overall against the run, while they allow the 4th lowest rush YPG on defense, that's more a function of teams abandoning gameplans of running the ball. They had the 2nd fewest rush attempts against them (behind only Baltimore). They do allow 4.2 YPC (Vikings allow 4.3), so the Vikings should be able to run their usual offense, with Cook and Mattison back.

The opponent who had the most success on the ground was the 49ers, where Kyle Shanahan didn't get cute and abandon the run but rather stuck to their gameplan and offensive scheme and rolled up 162 yards on the ground on just 24 carries (6.3 carries).

Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport are also out, and Eli Apple is trending towards not playing for them. However, the Vikings did fail to take advantage of the Bears Akiem Hicks being out in week 4, so I'm not sure how large this looms on this game.

I think there are two big keys to this game: The Vikings need to keep this game within 7 points at all times, so they can run their normal offense. I would even lean towards choosing to receive the ball if the Vikings win the toss, to settle Cousins in and establish a lead if possible. They also need to win the turnover battle, which is my only area of real concern. The Saints have done a fantastic job of limiting turnovers this season, with only 6 fumbles (2 lost) and 6 total interceptions (only 4 of which Bress threw). The Vikings have also done a good job limiting turnovers, Kirk only had 6 interceptions on the season, but the team did fumble 30 times on the season, they only lost 12, however, which is... fortunate to say the least. (Fun note: Cousins was not mostly to blame here, he fumbled 10 times, losing 3. Cook fumbled 4 times, but only lost one. Diggs was the worst, in my humble opinion, fumbling 4 times, but losing 3.)

If I haven't convinced you this game should at least be close, here is an in depth betting look at the game and you can see how even this matchup is.

I also haven't mentioned that the Saints are a far worse home team than a road team this season (7-1 on the road vs 6-2 at home). Vegas rates them as 2.9 points above average at home this season, as opposed to 12.0 points above average on the road.

The Vikings also have an advantage in the red zone, scoring a TD on 60.7% of red zone trips, while the Saints give up a TD 59.6% of the time. The Saints score TDs on about 59.7% of red zone trips, but the Vikings have a far superior red zone defense, giving up a TD on 43.75% of red zone opportunities.

Edited by Nozizaki
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37 minutes ago, Nozizaki said:

Their corners struggle to set the edge and be physcial against RBs, especially toss plays out of bunch sets. Then the safeties and corners get very aggressive off play action and allow deep completions.

 

Not really a huge secret to this either. Lattimore is a solid tackler, but he focus’s in on the receiver. He will make that tackle, but it might be for a chunk gain. 

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Just now, VikeManDan said:

Does anyone know why the Divisional Round doesn't follow the Wild Card format in that both AFC/NFC games are on the same days? Some teams will be disadvantaged in terms of rest (Vikings if they win will be in that boat.).

Because they don't care.  It was more about the Bye teams than the Wildcard winners, as they didn't want to have the 49ers and Packers on the same day.

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51 minutes ago, gopherwrestler said:

Either way to win this game, we are realistically going to have to put up around 34 points (ish) barring how well our defense plays. With a healthy offense, we can do it, but it will be a battle. 

I'll add to this in that we'll need to possess the ball for 29+ minutes. We're 1-6 when having a TOP of under 29 minutes (25:54, 24:33, 28:12, 20:15, 22:28, 22:20) We beat Denver, miraculously with 23:17 TOP. I mean look at how skewed some of those games are, 4 out of 6 losses, we didn't even have the ball for 25 minutes. 

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