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Bobby816

2019/2020 Offseason

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1 hour ago, jetskid007 said:

Feels like a direct shot at the Jets/Bell

Don't let it fool you. The niners and shanny still threw big money at McKinnon, tried to get Bell, and then signed Coleman to a somewhat reasonable deal. So they've been throwing money at the position as well. Why? I have no idea. I've been yelling for the last two years about it in the 49er thread lol. 

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9 minutes ago, Forge said:

Don't let it fool you. The niners and shanny still threw big money at McKinnon, tried to get Bell, and then signed Coleman to a somewhat reasonable deal. So they've been throwing money at the position as well. Why? I have no idea. I've been yelling for the last two years about it in the 49er thread lol. 

No I know, I meant it more so in the sense that as it has applied to us, the new regime wanted to go cheaper at RB and use the resources invested in Bell elsewhere, whereas Maccagnan/ownership were linked to Bell early in the 2018 season. 

Bell's gift is his patience, but as we saw this year, it's not a great fit for a zone blocking OL lacking talent, unlike the Steelers, who had a lot of man-zone combos and asked their talented OL to hold their first level blocks longer when running zone plays, something that's far more difficult than it sounds. Jets asked Bell to hit the hole as designed to try to help the efficiency of the offense, but it just isn't his way; it's like trying to tell a lefty to bat righty. 

As far as SF - the way they built there roster has definitely intrigued me. They've been lucky in that they've made up for every high profile "bust" with a player who has far exceeded expectations, i.e. Mostert for McKinnon (they apparently offered Bell a 1 year, $12m contract too), Tomlinson/Garland for Richburg/Garnett, Warner for Foster... got lucky in a lot of circumstances, but also comes back to good coaching. 

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On 1/18/2020 at 9:58 AM, jetskid007 said:

A better idea? Wait until 48 or 68 to take one of the 366489 other receiver prospects in the deepest receiver class ever, or use maybe a 4th or 5th to jump up a few spots in round 2 instead of mortgaging an additional top 70 pick to move up 20 spots. 

Just because the media has overlooked guys and the mock drafts are telling a different story doesn’t mean the second wave of receiver prospects aren’t as good as the aforementioned. The talent gap between a guy like Shenault to Aiyuk or even DPJ is not as big as you’d think; In fact, I’d put money on Shenault being available in round 2 this year. 

Not saying this is your position, but if you were to take the stance of “the Jets haven’t drafted good receivers in rounds 2 or 3 over the past 10 years, so I’d rather one in R1” that would be a fallacy. It’s no more likely that we’d take the right receiver just because they have a “Round 1” attached to their name than it is we’d take the right on in rounds 2, 3, and it’s an entirely different regime. 

Respect the thinking outside of the box, but just think you’re way too hellbent on drafting a receiver in round 1 just because of the pedigree that comes with being a 1st round pick. There will be receivers at 48 that are just as good as receivers at 28; this year, more than others, will be about teams personal preferences regarding flavor, so great WR prospects will fall in round 2- just as they did last year 

Jeudy and Lamb are in a tier of their own. Julio/AJGreen level tier.

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9 hours ago, DowNY said:

Jeudy and Lamb are in a tier of their own. Julio/AJGreen level tier.

I see them a tier below that, which is still fantastic, but point being the gap between them and the 10th receiver in the class is not even close to the gap you’ll see at other positions. 

Either way, what I’m driving is Factor 1: from a grade perspective, I don’t think they are consensus top 10 players in this class. I see them being between 8-14 in a vacuum. Factor 2: from a roster building/resource allocation perspective, investing heavy draft resources at WR isn’t necessary to develop a top tier passing attack... we’ve seen it time and time again. Factor 3: this is the deepest WR class ever. Ever. There are so many dynamic receivers in this draft it’s unreal. There will be guys that go in R3 that will be stars, possibly multiple. You can almost be sure that you’re getting a starting caliber player in round 2. They haven’t been in the spotlight, but as the draft nears you’ll hear more and more about how there are up to 10 WRs with legit 1st round grades, and there will be even more with day 2 grades. There should be a plethora of WRs with rookie starting caliber potential all the way through day 3 of the draft. 

On the flip side, there’s a narrative out there that this class is deep with OL, but I don’t see that at all. There are 4-5 truly dynamic blockers in this class, after that it’s very generic; you’ll be able to find a few plug-and-play starters in day 2/3, but not Quenton Nelson-level guys that you can build your OL around regardless of position. Guys that make the entire OL better. Becton, Thomas, Wills, Wirfs all have those dominant/dynamic traits regardless if they’re playing LT, G, or RT... not easy to gauge because there is no traditional stat to measure by, but those guys can open up you’re offense so much more than a WR can.

Obviously every player comes with a risk and some of these guys may not pan out, but I have 2 of those OL rated in a higher tier and the other 2 in the same tier as Lamb/Jeudy.
 

For me, Thomas and Becton have the higher bust potential but may also have the higher upside; really comes down to Thomas’s ability to refine his mechanics/how he responds to coaching and Becton’s ability to stay in shape- this year he lost 20 lbs and not coincidentally you saw a player with much cleaner/lighter footwork and a nimble player in pass sets. Wills and Wirfs will be rock solid starters in the NFL and have the athletic potential to be consensus top 25 lineman in the league year in and year out. Feel really good about them both as 10 year tackles on the right or left. 

 

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I hadn't thought of that, will be interesting to see if it effects how teams spend

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3 hours ago, NJC33 said:

I hadn't thought of that, will be interesting to see if it effects how teams spend

I'd think teams will go back to using up the majority of their cap room, but they may not necessarily do so by dishing out guaranteed dollars. Instead, they'll bloat the base salaries and decrease the prorated bonuses. 

The carryover provision was such an interesting one that really helped some teams, but i don't think enough teams took advantage. Instead, cheap owners just kicked the can down the road and only spent "cash" when they had to (see 2017-2019 Raiders). 

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