Divisional Round GDT - Vikings at 49ers

[Chrissooner49er]

9 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

Well, to be fair to Tannehill, he's an absolute stud. The guy has more playoff victories this decade than Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Garoppolo, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson combined. 

 Wha'chu talkin' bout, Willis!

[JIllg]

1 minute ago, Chrissooner49er said:

 Wha'chu talkin' bout, Willis!

To be fair, only four dudes have one of those wins this decade.

[Chrissooner49er]

Doh! I overlooked "this decade". Duh, this decade is only days old. Mea culpa.

[NcFinest9erFan]

 

[Forge]

23 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

 

I think a lot of people really wanted to see Cousins win a playoff game before they commit to the Vikings. Now that he has, I think people are very bullish on them. They definitely have a ton of talent. 

[vikingsrule]

The Vikes road struggles are certainly valid, the defense plays much better at home. But let’s not get too focused on the performance of the last month of the year. The Vikes didn’t have a healthy Cook, Mattison and Thielen, plus they rested starters against the Bears and still almost beat the Bears first team. The Green Bay game hurts but it was Monday night and for whatever reason Cousins is cursed on Monday night. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

9 minutes ago, vikingsrule said:

The Vikes road struggles are certainly valid, the defense plays much better at home. But let’s not get too focused on the performance of the last month of the year. The Vikes didn’t have a healthy Cook, Mattison and Thielen, plus they rested starters against the Bears and still almost beat the Bears first team. The Green Bay game hurts but it was Monday night and for whatever reason Cousins is cursed on Monday night. 

Yeah, different ball club with a healthy a Cook and Thielen. 

So Lynch kind of made it seem like Ford will be a go tomorrow. I don't think him getting the extra treatment after yesterday's practice was anything to be alarmed about. In fact, I bet he's been getting treatment after practice all week, but yesterday was the only time he was set to address the media. 

Looks like the weather should be fine tomorrow, though there are 16 MPH winds which could make things a bit tricky. 

[rudyZ]

Let the media make us underdogs. Just imagine how pumped Sherman must be right now, seeing everyone disrespect what we've done this year once again. I'm predicting Sherm will have an INT and will either force or recover a fumble. Just because the vikes have become the sexy pick.

[rudyZ]

And Breida will have a 50+ yard run.

And Jimmy will have a pedestrian stat line, which will prompt everyone to go back to what they were saying early in the year. Until he proves himself in the Superbowl and goes off for a huge game. All of this because the media don't believe in us.

[NcFinest9erFan]

8 minutes ago, rudyZ said:

And Breida will have a 50+ yard run.

And Jimmy will have a pedestrian stat line, which will prompt everyone to go back to what they were saying early in the year. Until he proves himself in the Superbowl and goes off for a huge game. All of this because the media don't believe in us.

First play Breida will be in and magic will happen...

[NcFinest9erFan]

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports Adam Thielen is expected to wear protective padding on his injured ankle in Saturday's Divisional Round game against the 49ers.

Thielen was absent from Thursday's practice and isn't expected to do much ahead of Saturday's 4:35 PM ET kickoff after getting cleated on Wednesday. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported earlier Friday that the Vikings aren't sure how Thielen's ankle will "hold up" after receiving stitches. Thielen should suit up for Saturday's win-or-go-home Divisional Round contest, though how effective he'll be playing at less than 100 percent is up for debate.

[JIllg]

1 hour ago, vikingsrule said:

The Vikes road struggles are certainly valid, the defense plays much better at home. But let’s not get too focused on the performance of the last month of the year. The Vikes didn’t have a healthy Cook, Mattison and Thielen, plus they rested starters against the Bears and still almost beat the Bears first team. The Green Bay game hurts but it was Monday night and for whatever reason Cousins is cursed on Monday night. 

All fair points. Another fair point is that the 49ers pass defense with Kwon Alexander and especially Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt available was on pace to be the greatest of all time (sans possibly this year's Patriots, who were on a similar unbelievable roll at the time). Not really good. Not the best in the NFL this season. The greatest of all time.

They were absurdly good. They basically eliminated Green Bay's offense and eliminated the Rams after the first drive. They annihilated Baker Mayfield and turned Russell Wilson mortal and then some in the first matchup. That game was lost due to difficulty breaking their man coverage without Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders; if the offense has a weakness it is this problem dealing with tight man coverage but that weakness is close to being alleviated with all of Deebo, Kittle, and Sanders available (the Falcons still gave us a lot of problems with heavy man looks in that game).  The defense gave Lamar Jackson his worst passing game outside of maybe the Bills and that was with just Tartt available of the three. Tartt's loss was immediately felt, with the Saints murdering his replacement Marcell Harris for the majority of the following game.  If all three are available to a reasonable extent, I do not think that the Vikings have a reasonable shot at winning, even at full strength. That hypothetical 49ers team with the first half's defense and the second half's offense would have been the best team in the NFL. 

But it may very well be the case that one or all are limited. If Ford can't go, the pass rush loses a lot of potency. We generally only rush four and doubling Buckner or Armistead and chipping Bosa mostly keeps things at bay. If Tartt can't play a full allotment of snaps, then the secondary has a definable weak point that can be exploited. If Kwon can't play very many snaps, then Azeez Al-Shaair will be playing quite a bit against your 2TE and fullback looks and he is a significant downgrade from Kwon. I think all are likely to be at least limited from their best by rust and injury restriction. It's going to be close - playaction bootlegs give this 49ers team trouble because of the defensive rules mandated by our wide-9 scheme and the Vikings will hit a few of them and maybe more. They will also be able to run the ball reasonably well. But as good as the Vikings defense is, it can't play man against our wide receivers to any real extent. And that's the best way to slow down Jimmy G. His use of eye faints, anticipation, and timing just carves up zone coverage. He's going to get his, even while getting sacked four or five times. It's going to be fun. I'm looking forward to watching it with all of the members of this board.

[gopherwrestler]

3 minutes ago, JIllg said:

. It's going to be close - playaction bootlegs give this 49ers team trouble because of the defensive rules mandated by our wide-9 scheme and the Vikings will hit a few of them and maybe more. They will also be able to run the ball reasonably well. But as good as the Vikings defense is, it can't play man against our wide receivers to any real extent. And that's the best way to slow down Jimmy G. His use of eye faints, anticipation, and timing just carves up zone coverage. He's going to get his, even while getting sacked four or five times. It's going to be fun. I'm looking forward to watching it with all of the members of this board.

Honestly, you basically listed I think what most people, that are Vikings fans, believe we can have a shot to win this game. Reviewing things, it looks like teams with the most success passing the ball, came along the lines of the play action. Kirk is at his best went he is able to boot out. 
 

The defensive situation will be the confusing part of it. It’s a constant battle of switching between man and zone coverages for us, but with Alexander, Hughes, and Kearse not playing, last week we had to basically switch to playing a lot more zone but there still was a fair amount of 1 vs 1 man coverage while battling Thomas and their receivers.

 

should be an interesting game!

[clarkfn2284]

I originally picked the Niners to win 31-17 and I still see it that way. I don't see a situation where the Vikings consistently move the ball against this defense, which is what they will need to do. They will get the small underneath stuff just based off of the coverages that Saleh's defensive scheme utilizes, but that isn't going to be enough to keep up. This offense puts points on the board. They have only been held to under 21 points 3 times this season and one of those was the Washington mud bowl with another being the Baltimore game in a monsoon. Even in today's NFL, if you can put up 21 points you give yourself a legit shot at winning, especially when you have a good defense.

As was shared earlier, the Vikings D is at it's worst against 21 personnel and the Niners run more 21 personnel than anyone. This game will come down to how the Vikings offense operates against the Niners defense. I could see the game remaining close through the first half. May be a 14-10, but after adjustments it should be a wrap.

[Forge]

31 minutes ago, clarkfn2284 said:

I originally picked the Niners to win 31-17 and I still see it that way. I don't see a situation where the Vikings consistently move the ball against this defense, which is what they will need to do. They will get the small underneath stuff just based off of the coverages that Saleh's defensive scheme utilizes, but that isn't going to be enough to keep up. This offense puts points on the board. They have only been held to under 21 points 3 times this season and one of those was the Washington mud bowl with another being the Baltimore game in a monsoon. Even in today's NFL, if you can put up 21 points you give yourself a legit shot at winning, especially when you have a good defense.

As was shared earlier, the Vikings D is at it's worst against 21 personnel and the Niners run more 21 personnel than anyone. This game will come down to how the Vikings offense operates against the Niners defense. I could see the game remaining close through the first half. May be a 14-10, but after adjustments it should be a wrap.

If it's the same stat I'm thinking of, its a very limited sample size. It's only 36 carries all season against 21 personnel. I'm not going to put a ton of emphasis on that as it could easily be skewed by two long runs. 

Defense has to come to play. We have been very beatable on defense lately, and this Minnesota offense is good. If we to play defensively like we have been, they should be able to move the ball well enough to win, especially given it could be a little bit more of a chore for our offense to move the ball. I'll be curious to see how Zimmer plays it - he schemed the Saints game around what Atlanta did to the Saints in their win...an Atlanta team that also gave us more fits on the back end of the season than any other team in terms of stopping the niner offense. I'll be curious if they run out more zone along with some exotic pass rushes on the interior of the line.