deltarich87 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Erasing a 24 point deficit in one quarter. Crazy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 HOU's gone from "We got this" to "Holy **** whats happening?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thrILL! Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Such a weird rule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 yeah, this went from enjoyable to ****ty pretty quick. I'm going to take a nap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golfman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, deltarich87 said: Erasing a 24 point deficit in one quarter. Crazy Yes, but momentum is not a thing according to the 'analytics' experts on here! O'Brien should be fired for that fake punt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Golfman said: Yes, but momentum is not a thing according to the 'analytics' experts on here! O'Brien should be fired for that fake punt. Think about how much momentum the Chiefs had to overcome to stop a 24-0 skid. Edited January 12, 2020 by AlexGreen#20 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TransientTexan Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 3 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said: And it was still absolutely the right call to go. The other problem with the whole go-for-it-every-time idea is that it sometimes assumes the statistical percentages happen in a vacuum. 4th downs have the current success rate *under the current use-cases and percentages of use*. It’s baked in. You can’t just assume the percentages will be stay the same once you change the use-cases. It’s like someone that thinks you should run a jet sweep more often just because it currently averages a certain high amount of yards, while failing to take into account that the surprise factor and other factors are what give it the high yardage. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golfman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Think about how much momentum the Chiefs had to overcome to stop a 24-0 skid. Yeah and a fake punt gone array and a quick score and the fans were going wild. It switched immediately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, Golfman said: Yeah and a fake punt gone array and a quick score and the fans were going wild. It switched immediately. If momentum can switch immediately, it's probably a sign that momentum is grossly overhyped. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golfman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, TransientTexan said: The other problem with the whole go-for-it-every-time idea is that it sometimes assumes the statistical percentages happen in a vacuum. 4th downs have the current success rate *under the current use-cases and percentages of use*. It’s baked in. You can’t just assume the percentages will be stay the same once you change the use-cases. It’s like someone that thinks you should run a jet sweep more often just because it currently averages a certain high amount of yards, while failing to take into account that the surprise factor and other factors are what give it the high yardage. Yeah, but you are never going to get these analytics folks to admit that. BTW, your response was affirmed by the fact they missed and got rolled yesterday! Edited January 12, 2020 by Golfman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golfman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said: If momentum can switch immediately, it's probably a sign that momentum is grossly overhyped. What is more likely is you've never been in a situation where it was either going for you or against you. Sometimes it takes one ray of light to change everyone's attitude. What is over hyped is a cookie cutter approach to analytics as the end all be all. It was proven yesterday in Baltimore that common sense has to play a roll too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, TransientTexan said: The other problem with the whole go-for-it-every-time idea is that it sometimes assumes the statistical percentages happen in a vacuum. 4th downs have the current success rate *under the current use-cases and percentages of use*. It’s baked in. You can’t just assume the percentages will be stay the same once you change the use-cases. It’s like someone that thinks you should run a jet sweep more often just because it currently averages a certain high amount of yards, while failing to take into account that the surprise factor and other factors are what give it the high yardage. Again, no one is saying go-for-it-everytime. But even 2 point conversions are about a 50% conversion rate. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that 4th and 2 would have any worse conversion odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 This has gone from KC literally being on the ropes to HOU feeling they're on the ropes now....and its only a 4pt game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Golfman said: What is more likely is you've never been in a situation where it was either going for you or against you. Sometimes it takes one ray of light to change everyone's attitude. What is over hyped is a cookie cutter approach to analytics as the end all be all. It was proven yesterday in Baltimore that common sense has to play a roll too. 1. No. I've definitely played sports before. Why does every attempt to refute analytics start with this ridiculous old-***-man response of "Well you've never played sports in your life, so you wouldn't even know." That's not how this works. This might blow your mind, but people can know two things. 2. Nothing was proven in Baltimore regarding analytics. The fact that you somehow think Baltimore failing to convert 4th and 1s somehow "proves" anything about the merits of going for it on 4th and 1, is ample evidence that you know a **** less about analytics than I know about playing football. Even after going 0/2 on 4th and 1 last night, the Ravens finished the year 8/10 on 4th and 1. They made the right choice. It just didn't work out. Have we proven that it was stupid for the Packers to go for it on 4th and 1 against the Lions? Edited January 12, 2020 by AlexGreen#20 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just taking a quick poll here. You've all now watched a good amount of other good teams play football as typically happens in the playoffs. We've seen some other QBs play. Anybody still think Rodgers is an elite QB? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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