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Divisional Round: Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers


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21 hours ago, sloppyjoefeed said:

Seahawks. The Packers are not your traditional 13-3 team. They have a ton of holes.

I wouldn't say they have a "ton of holes", but you're right in saying that they are not your traditional 13 win team, as they are one of the worst 13 win teams of all-time.

--Since the league went to 16 game seasons in '78, there have been 50 different teams with a 13-3 record and the Packers have the worst point differential of all of them with 63--with the '99 Titans coming in second at 68, and the next closest to them being the '99 Colts with 90.

As it says here, https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019 , the Packers were closer to a 10 win team who has got by with a lot of luck and help from the refs.

--Their estimated wins are 9.9 vs their 13 wins, which means they overachieved....by a lot. And this showed in games as well.

That's a 3.1 difference from the actual amount of wins. Their 3.1 difference is tied for the 17th highest difference of any playoff team since 1989 (along with the '16 Raiders and the Lions in '91.

That said though,  it wouldn't surprise me if they pull out the win against a beaten-up team (luck again) with the refs on their side again at home.

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1 hour ago, JustAnotherFan said:

I wouldn't say they have a "ton of holes", but you're right in saying that they are not your traditional 13 win team, as they are one of the worst 13 win teams of all-time.

--Since the league went to 16 game seasons in '78, there have been 50 different teams with a 13-3 record and the Packers have the worst point differential of all of them with 63--with the '99 Titans coming in second at 68, and the next closest to them being the '99 Colts with 90.

As it says here, https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019 , the Packers were closer to a 10 win team who has got by with a lot of luck and help from the refs.

--Their estimated wins are 9.9 vs their 13 wins, which means they overachieved....by a lot. And this showed in games as well.

That's a 3.1 difference from the actual amount of wins. Their 3.1 difference is tied for the 17th highest difference of any playoff team since 1989 (along with the '16 Raiders and the Lions in '91.

That said though,  it wouldn't surprise me if they pull out the win against a beaten-up team (luck again) with the refs on their side again at home.

No argument about your take on the Packers and how they oveachieved, altohugh the same can be said for the Seahawks. Of course I doubt they're the worst 11-5 team of all time because the sample is so much bigger, but like the Packers they have overachieved. Their estimated wins are 8.2 vs 11. Not far off from the Packers drop. Are both of these teams excellent at closing games? Lucky? Probably a bit of both, and I will be shocked if Sunday's matchup is anything but a close game decided on the final possession.

 

Packers 23

Seahakws 20

Edited by RandyMossIsBoss
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8 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

No argument about your take on the Packers and how they oveachieved, altohugh the same can be said for the Seahawks. Of course I doubt they're the worst 11-5 team of all time because the sample is so much bigger, but like the Packers they have overachieved. Their estimated wins are 8.2 vs 11. Not far off from the Packers drop. Are both of these teams excellent at closing games? Lucky? Probably a bit of both, and I will be shocked if Sunday's matchup is anything but a close game decided on the final possession.

 

Packers 23

Seahakws 20

Yes both these teams are like long lost brothers, overachieved on the season and have much better records than they should 

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3 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

I wouldn't say they have a "ton of holes", but you're right in saying that they are not your traditional 13 win team, as they are one of the worst 13 win teams of all-time.

--Since the league went to 16 game seasons in '78, there have been 50 different teams with a 13-3 record and the Packers have the worst point differential of all of them with 63--with the '99 Titans coming in second at 68, and the next closest to them being the '99 Colts with 90.

As it says here, https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019 , the Packers were closer to a 10 win team who has got by with a lot of luck and help from the refs.

--Their estimated wins are 9.9 vs their 13 wins, which means they overachieved....by a lot. And this showed in games as well.

That's a 3.1 difference from the actual amount of wins. Their 3.1 difference is tied for the 17th highest difference of any playoff team since 1989 (along with the '16 Raiders and the Lions in '91.

That said though,  it wouldn't surprise me if they pull out the win against a beaten-up team (luck again) with the refs on their side again at home.

Which is all well and good, except that the Seahawks have a point differential of +7.

The Sehawks estimated wins are 8.2 and they ended up with 11, a disparity almost as bad. Plus they're way more injured.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/2019.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/2019.htm

There's a ton of ground to talk about the Packers being overrated as a 13-3 team and potentially susceptible to upsets based on the analytics component of things, but that's not against the Seahawks who the analytics are just as shaky on if not more. 

 

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19 hours ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

No argument about your take on the Packers and how they oveachieved, altohugh the same can be said for the Seahawks.

I agree that the Seahawks were a mixed bag this year-- in large part because of their defense. However, they also had one of the highest amounts of significant injuries and played a tough schedule including 8 games against teams with 9 wins or more (3 away games), another 3 games against 7-8 win teams, and 5 different playoff teams.

This also aligns with FO's schedule since they also played the 2nd hardest schedule in the league this year in DVOA (+4.8) -- which is tied for the 22nd most difficult among all 370 playoff teams since '89.

Any team going 11-5 with a runner-up for MVP at QB while playing a schedule like that along with all the injuries is not exactly crazy thinking either.

The Packers schedule ranked 17th in the league this year (-0.8), and middle of the pack among all playoff teams (167th).

The Packers finished with a +7.7% in total DVOA which is the 2nd lowest DVOA of any 13-3 team only ahead of only the '99 Colts(+4.4%), and the 100th worst of any playoff team since 1989. 

19 hours ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Of course I doubt they're the worst 11-5 team of all time because the sample is so much bigger,

Third worst in PD actually. 
Bottom 5: 
'03 CAR: +21 
'14 ARI: +11 
'19 SEA: +7 
'04 ATL: +3 
'12 IND: -30

The avg point differential among all playoff teams with 11 wins from 1989-2018 (79 teams) is 87 (-80 dif). Med avg is 89 (-82 dif).
The avg point differential among all playoff teams with 13 wins from 1989-2018 (45 teams) is 153 (-90 dif). Med avg is 144 (-81 dif).

The avg total DVOA among all playoff teams with 11 wins is +15.2%. The Seahawks finished with a +13.8% (45TH)

19 hours ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Their estimated wins are 8.2 vs 11. Not far off from the Packers drop.

Seahawks estimated wins are 10.9, not 8.2, which is far from the Packers +3.1. 

19 hours ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Are both of these teams excellent at closing games?

Seattle's DVOA in close games (which is measured by all plays in the second half or overtime with the score within 8 points) was 3rd best in the league with a 27.6% rating behind DAL and TEN--44.5% and 29.0%, respectively. GB was ranked 15th with 3.2%. 

Anyhow, I was only commenting on how the Packers are one of the worst 13 win teams of all-time who got very lucky this year and not how they compare to the Seahawks.

Besides, for the most part, I'm of the opinion that how well a team performs in the regular season has little bearing on how they will do in the post-season. As coaches and players always say....the playoffs are a new season.

Edited by JustAnotherFan
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17 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Which is all well and good, except that the Seahawks have a point differential of +7.

The Sehawks estimated wins are 8.2 and they ended up with 11, a disparity almost as bad. Plus they're way more injured.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/2019.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/2019.htm

There's a ton of ground to talk about the Packers being overrated as a 13-3 team and potentially susceptible to upsets based on the analytics component of things, but that's not against the Seahawks who the analytics are just as shaky on if not more. 

 

You're looking at PFR's metric, I was referring to FO'S.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#estimated_wins

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019

I gave no opinion on the Seahawks or how this game will play out because none of that has anything to do with the main point that the Packers are one of the worst 13 win teams in history.

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