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soflbillsfan

My ideal offseason before the draft

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3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Green isn't leaving. If we can't reach a long term deal before the deadline, he will be franchise tagged. Also, no way he signs for that little money. Julio Jones just signed a 3-year, $66 million dollar contract extension. Green isn't settling in Buffalo for half of that.

It's very unlikely Dalton will settle for a back up role. He's much more likely to sign to a team where he at least has a chance to earn the starting role. And like Green, that's far too little money for him to be taking.

Just my two cents, from a Bengals fan.

What is the point of keeping at end of prime AJ Green while semi-rebuilding with a rookie QB and weak OL?

This makes 0 sense from every angle

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3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Green isn't leaving. If we can't reach a long term deal before the deadline, he will be franchise tagged. Also, no way he signs for that little money. Julio Jones just signed a 3-year, $66 million dollar contract extension. Green isn't settling in Buffalo for half of that.

It's very unlikely Dalton will settle for a back up role. He's much more likely to sign to a team where he at least has a chance to earn the starting role. And like Green, that's far too little money for him to be taking.

Just my two cents, from a Bengals fan.

Yea well Julio has been healthy and was 29 when he signed his deal. Meanwhile Aj Green hasnt had a full season in 3 years and he will be 32 years old when the season starts so you cannot compare the two. 2 things why would he stay on a team that is rebuilding and in no way competing in 2020 season? Why would an organization pay him to stay when they are rebuilding and getting younger? Also new coaching staff that came in last year may not have an interest in keeping him. So for that price tag of 3 years 33 mil is realistic. The bengals have other needs over paying an older wr that has yet to prove he can stay healthy.

As for Dalton, you have Winston Brees brady bridgewater all free agents and seeking new contracts that will be better then dalton short term. Then you got guys like Mariota and Flacco that will be available as well. He may find a team willing to compete for starter but his role these days are designated to back up at best a bridge qb.

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22 minutes ago, BillsGuy82 said:

What is the point of keeping at end of prime AJ Green while semi-rebuilding with a rookie QB and weak OL?

This makes 0 sense from every angle

Not really, there are reasons to keep him. First of all, we have the money to spend. Secondly, he's expressed the wish to stay loyal to the team that drafted him, and the team has expressed every intention to resign him. And lastly, keeping Green means giving Burrow a legitimate #1 weapon in an offense that needs one; he will be a key element in developing him as an NFL passer, regardless of his age or the direction of the franchise.

Like I said, the team will tag him if they can't come to an agreement on numbers.

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14 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

Yea well Julio has been healthy and was 29 when he signed his deal. Meanwhile Aj Green hasnt had a full season in 3 years and he will be 32 years old when the season starts so you cannot compare the two.

He's still not going to take half the money Julio made. Julio is the bar AJ and his agent will reference in negotiations.

14 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

things why would he stay on a team that is rebuilding and in no way competing in 2020 season? Why would an organization pay him to stay when they are rebuilding and getting younger? 

See the @BillsGuy82 post above.

15 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

Also new coaching staff that came in last year may not have an interest in keeping him.

Not true. They have expressed to wish to resign him. AJ wants to retire a Bengal if the money is right. He'll be tagged without an agreement in place. We aren't letting him go for nothing.

16 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

So for that price tag of 3 years 33 mil is realistic.

I really don't think so. He's not going to sign for that little. Not only would Cincinnati gladly pay that price, but I can't imagine AJ leaving Cincinnati for less money when he's explicitly stated he wants to retire a Bengal. If he's going to leave Cincinnati, it will be because the money isn't what he wants. Meaning he'll sign elsewhere for more, not less.

21 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

As for Dalton, you have Winston Brees brady bridgewater all free agents and seeking new contracts that will be better then dalton short term. Then you got guys like Mariota and Flacco that will be available as well. He may find a team willing to compete for starter but his role these days are designated to back up at best a bridge qb.

Like I said, I find it hard to imagine he takes a permanent back up job in Buffalo; especially on a two-year deal. I think there's a better chance he lands in unsettled QB destinations like Chicago, Indianapolis, Carolina, or LAC. The price isn't right either. You're underrating his market. If Brissett can sign for $15 million annually, so can Andy. He's a better QB than Bridgewater. 

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16 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Not really, there are reasons to keep him. First of all, we have the money to spend. Secondly, he's expressed the wish to stay loyal to the team that drafted him, and the team has expressed every intention to resign him. And lastly, keeping Green means giving Burrow a legitimate #1 weapon in an offense that needs one; he will be a key element in developing him as an NFL passer, regardless of his age or the direction of the franchise.

Like I said, the team will tag him if they can't come to an agreement on numbers.

If he wants to stay in Cincy thats different but other than that you rarely see a older WR get paid before entering 1 or 2 rebuild years.. Especially with injury concerns and a new regime. I'll be shocked if he stays in Cincy or accepts a franchise tag with all his injury concerns lately but it's not out of realm of possibility

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37 minutes ago, BillsGuy82 said:

If he wants to stay in Cincy thats different but other than that you rarely see a older WR get paid before entering 1 or 2 rebuild years.. Especially with injury concerns and a new regime. I'll be shocked if he stays in Cincy or accepts a franchise tag with all his injury concerns lately but it's not out of realm of possibility

Cincinnati just operates differently. We don't really see it as a rebuild. If we did, we would have offloaded guys like Atkins and Green at the deadline. The way we see it, we've got enough pieces in place to remain competitive with good QB play. AJ still has a ton of value if he can remain healthy. His play hasn't dropped off at all. In fact, he looked at his peak in 2018 before the injuries hit.

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On 1/17/2020 at 9:08 AM, BillsGuy82 said:

If he wants to stay in Cincy thats different but other than that you rarely see a older WR get paid before entering 1 or 2 rebuild years.. Especially with injury concerns and a new regime. I'll be shocked if he stays in Cincy or accepts a franchise tag with all his injury concerns lately but it's not out of realm of possibility

 

On 1/17/2020 at 11:05 AM, SmittyBacall said:

Cincinnati just operates differently. We don't really see it as a rebuild. If we did, we would have offloaded guys like Atkins and Green at the deadline. The way we see it, we've got enough pieces in place to remain competitive with good QB play. AJ still has a ton of value if he can remain healthy. His play hasn't dropped off at all. In fact, he looked at his peak in 2018 before the injuries hit.

I agree with the bolded. I do see a team with really poor depth overall, but the starters are largely there, especially on offense. Coincidently, the last time I messed around with Football Mogol, I was handling the Bengals and, looking at that game now, the stats are still loaded. I made just 3 changes on offense: brought in Michael Floyd as a FA WR#3, reassigned TE Cethan Carter to an H-back position to provide some actual blocking from the backfield for Mixon, and set the alignment to show run 10% more than pass. I averaged 28.1 ppg after the simulated season. Floyd was a huge surprise hauling in 49/615/2, but much of that production probably occurred while Green was injured. No WR exceeded 960 yds on the season and Dalton and Mixon stayed healthy all year. Mixon was a monster in this situation, combining for just under 2100 total yards with 20 rushing td's plus 5 more through the air! Geezus!

I'm not a fan of the Bengals' D, especially the linebacking corps, where I don't know any system that would find value in that collection of misfits. The DL wasn't complete either IMO, so I switched Atkins to a DE and went with a 3-4. The resulting NT combination of Billings/Tupou was quite weak. I made 4 trades bringing in other teams' 2nd and 3rd string LBers and a S to improve speed and coverage abilities. No big names, just also-rans, who unfortunately all struggled somewhat with tackling. Had to be done though because the LBers' coverage ability and most of their speed was noticeably substandard. Just for fun - and almost as an alternative to a 3-3 Stack - I paired this front with a slightly modified Tampa 2 coverage...something generally regarded as a faux pas. (I did retain LBers Vigil, Pratt, and Evans, but only Pratt started, though he was my drop back MLB-type in the Tampa 2!)  The main modification was to add a Crossfire Blitz with the ILB's. The Sim didn't use that defensive play near as often as I would have on 3rd and longs...too bad. Anyway, end of season stats showed why the pairing isn't used as a base D: gave up an average of 126 ypg on the ground and 282 through the air and only got 17 sacks for the whole D! Still this turned out to be a D that bent...SIGNIFICANTLY, but didn't break as much as one would think. Finished the season with a 10-6 record and won the AFC North! LOL. Lost in the wildcard game to Baltimore...24-21.

OK, so that was just a sim and I got insanely lucky that neither Mixon nor Dalton got injured, but imagine what would have happened if I had not utilized that funky defensive combination with the Tampa 2? Realistically, I would have pressured the QB more and and gotten off the field after 3rd down more. In short, there's no need to press the tank/rebuild button here. I'd target a QB, resign Eifert, add a S and a CB, and revamp/start revamping that LBer corp during the upcoming off-season. Overall depth will take at least a couple years to upgrade. Their Cap situation is pretty much average for the NFL and will get as good as ours after the 2020 season. With the Steelers needing QB help and teams figuring out the Ravens, they have the potential to be competitive quite soon, I'd imagine.

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I think it's a rebuild they have Mixon leading a decent stable of RB's, but not much after on offense, poor OL and a defense that lacks skill and depth.

Getting Burrow is a great step but they won't be competing for 3-4 years in what I expect to be a tough division over that time 

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I’d also like to add some speed to our offense. Exciting off season, and next year is going to be the first year this millennium that we are going to have expectations. We are going to be expected to win the division, and win playoff games. It’s about to get real in Buffalo. 

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To go along with expectations, we also have a tough schedule. We play 3/4 conference championship game teams. Two of which are on the road, and also home games against Seattle, both LA teams, and the Steelers. Looking as of now i would expect wins against 

NYJ X2

MIA X2

@LV Raiders

@ Cardinals 

@Broncos

 

Meh, after typing it out, might not be as bad as i thought. We will see how things play out at QB with the Pats, Chargers, and Steelers. Only team I’m looking at thinking we are for sure dogs in is against KC.

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34 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

To go along with expectations, we also have a tough schedule. We play 3/4 conference championship game teams. Two of which are on the road, and also home games against Seattle, both LA teams, and the Steelers. Looking as of now i would expect wins against 

NYJ X2

MIA X2

@LV Raiders

@ Cardinals 

@Broncos

 

Meh, after typing it out, might not be as bad as i thought. We will see how things play out at QB with the Pats, Chargers, and Steelers. Only team I’m looking at thinking we are for sure dogs in is against KC.

Pats are beatable.. Their time time is coming. KC, SF, Seattle will be tough games

Our defense will keep us in any game, our progression will be determined with how much Josh Allen develops.

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