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GDT DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS: Packers vs Seattle Seahawks


squire12

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15 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

The Seahawks run a pretty even DT rotation between Jarran Reed, Poona Ford, and Quinton Jefferson. All three offer different skillsets, but all three are good run defenders for what they're asked to do. Reed is their typical guy who handles the most reps. He's the sort of typical NT build, 6'3-310ish guy who excells at anchoring down against double teams. Quinton Jefferson is a typical 5T build, 6'4 290, and moves really well laterally with a good enough anchor to win more than he losses. He brings a little bit of juice. Poona Ford is an UDFA guy who plays their 3T spot. He's really short at 5'11 but uses it well to play with leverage, and combines some nasty and good lateral quickness to be stickier than you would expect from a guy his size.

@AlexGreen#20

Awesome write up for today's game.  Looking for some expanded thoughts on Jefferson and Reed. 

Both are UFA  that I think would be nice targets for GB this offseason.

My personal belief is the IDL is going to be improved via FA, and the offense additions will come from the draft.

 Between Jefferson and Reed,  who do you think offers the better combo of value and pairing along side Clark?

I think Reed would pair better, but may be more expensive vs Jefferson,  and as such lean toward Jefferson based on potential cost.

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Just now, squire12 said:

@AlexGreen#20

Awesome write up for today's game.  Looking for some expanded thoughts on Jefferson and Reed. 

Both are UFA  that I think would be nice targets for GB this offseason.

My personal belief is the IDL is going to be improved via FA, and the offense additions will come from the draft.

 Between Jefferson and Reed,  who do you think offers the better combo of value and pairing along side Clark?

I think Reed would pair better, but may be more expensive vs Jefferson,  and as such lean toward Jefferson based on potential cost.

I think ultimately it's going to depend on what flavor of DL you want. Are you looking for 6'3 310lb 0/1T or are you looking for 6'4/5-295 3/5T type?

I think that question then is going to depend on what you're trying to do at ILB. Are we going to continue playing 3-3 with 3DL and 1 ILB or are we going to go back to the 2-4 with 2DL and 2 ILBs.

I almost always lean towards the pass rush, which would be Jefferson, and Jefferson is the longer body type which is often the tie breaker, but I have questions about Jefferson's pure anchor and I don't have questions about Reed's lateral movement. 

I also wonder how much of an upgrade Jefferson is over Lowry. I don't have any questions that Reed over Lancaster is a big upgrade in that role.

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Just now, chillparsi1 said:

Incredible write-up @AlexGreen#20, feels like I got to open a Christmas gift early.

One thing I am curious about: how do you feel about the LaFleur vs Carroll matchup (esp cause that’s offense vs defensive background).

Hard to say at the moment. 

Neither one is running the best unit on their own teams.

That Seahawks defense can't stop the run, can't rush the passer, and can't find a nickel back. They're damn lucky they're as good as they are at taking the ball away, because they sure as **** don't do anything else well. 

The Packer offense is going to have to make an interesting choice today. Are they going to play heavy with 2 TEs and pound Jones against a poor run defense or are they going to want to spread things out and take advantage of Ugo Amadi (who may or may not be the Seahawks nickel today). Given my choice I'd love to run a ton out of the spread, but I've kinda given up on that dream. I'm not sure there's a bad option for what we're trying to do here. 

In that essence I guess I lean towards LaFleur's offense, with the caveat that Rodgers has to execute. 

That isn't to say I think LaFleur is a better offensive mind than Carroll is a defensive mind. Carroll's just running low on talent at the premiums. Talent makes the difference in coaching 9 times out of ten. 

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Wow.  Wow.  I was about to leave all football behind until 6:40 PM CST and then I actually checked to make sure that was the time and apparently it’s 5:40 PM CST.  I almost missed an hour of the game.  Anyhoo, I’ll probably work on my house u til the game starts to kill some time.  Won’t actually turn the game on until 5:50 PM CST because the NFL 

THINKS IT IS A GOOD IDEA AND ONAY TO LIE TO ITS FANBASE BY SAYING A ****ING GAME STARTS AT A CERTAIN TIME ONLY TO SQUEEZE ANOTHER 5-7 MINUTES WORTH OF ADVERTISING OUT OF EVERY ****ING GAME BECAUSE THEY CANNOT UNDERSTAND BASIC SOCIETAL RULES OF STARTING SOMETHING WHEN YOU ****ING SAY YOU ARE GOING TO ****ING START THEM!

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1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I think ultimately it's going to depend on what flavor of DL you want. Are you looking for 6'3 310lb 0/1T or are you looking for 6'4/5-295 3/5T type?

I think that question then is going to depend on what you're trying to do at ILB. Are we going to continue playing 3-3 with 3DL and 1 ILB or are we going to go back to the 2-4 with 2DL and 2 ILBs.

I almost always lean towards the pass rush, which would be Jefferson, and Jefferson is the longer body type which is often the tie breaker, but I have questions about Jefferson's pure anchor and I don't have questions about Reed's lateral movement. 

I also wonder how much of an upgrade Jefferson is over Lowry. I don't have any questions that Reed over Lancaster is a big upgrade in that role.

Based on the last 2 years, from a generating QB pressure, Jefferson wins for sure.  How much of that is due to situational aspects I am not sure.

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1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

From a matchup perspective:

Smith-Lowry-Clark-Lancaster-Smith vs. Fant-Jones-Hunt-Fluker-Ifedi: 

The latter group is something of a mash unit. Duane Brown, the preferred starter at LT appears unlikely to play, still recovering from knee surgery. His neighbor at LG, Mike Iupati has been downgraded to doubtful, so he shouldn't play either. George Fant (also listed as questionable with a groin injury) is a servicable backup at LT. If he can't play, Chad Wheeler will likely get the start at RT. Either Wheeler or a hobbled Fant should be potential matchup advantages for the Packers. Jamarco Jones is Iupati's sub at LG. Jones has been a very rough fill in for the Seahawks, which is to be expected when you get down to your seventh lineman.

Joey Hunt at Center is a servicable option for the Seahawks, the former 6th rounder is a little bit undersized and had an absolutely brutal outing against Fletcher Cox of the Eagles. He was repeatedly beat with both speed and power, and seemed entirely unprepared for any of the Eagles pressure packages. It's not going to get easier this week as he lines up against Kenny Clark on standard downs and is likely to draw Zadarius Smith in the pressure packages.

Fluker is the best player standing on this Seahawks line. That's not to say that he's good, but he's at least a capable NFL starter. He's a massive dude with some genuine drive skills, but he's also stiff, plays with poor leverage, and isn't always the quickest to pick up on the various stunting attacks teams like to deploy. He's going to get a lot of snaps lined up across from Lowry. On paper this is the Seahawks best matchup, trying to run right at Lowry's less than elite anchor. Hopefully Clark is in fighting shape and able to clean up some of the mess. 

Ifedi is a good athlete and a not great football player. He struggles getting hands on guys and doesn't have the anchor to lock things up when he manages. Both of these Tackles are greatly propped up by team's desire to not rush Russell Wilson overly aggressively. If the Packers have confidence in Martinez, Fackrell or one of the dime DBs to function in a spy role, Smith and Smith might really be able to get after these Tackle groups. Kyler Fackrell had a 3 sack game against this same Seahawks team last season. 

From the Packers perspective, the biggest question heading into the game is Kenny Clark's health. So far this year for the Packers, "Questionable" has just meant, likely to play. If Clark is a scratch or is even limited, this turns into an entirely different football game. That would turn the middle of the field into a tough wash for the Packers with Lancaster and Lowry manning the 2-man looks and Montravious Adams getting added for the 3-man sets the Packers like to run. They wouldn't be overmatched, but that would certainly kill a lot of the pressure up the middle that will be vital to both rushing the passer and preventing Wilson's scrambling. 

The Packers aren't an elite pass rushing team. They're 21st in pressure percentage and 15th in sacks, but they've shown new life in recent weeks with Zadarius Smith playing inside more and more. Hopefully Clark will be able to play, otherwise the pressure package that's likely to be run the most (Fackrell-Smith-Lowry-Smith) is going to lack serious teeth. Though there is a possibility that Rashan Gary could fill in for Lowry and open up an entirely OLB pressure package which would be an interesting show.

Clowney-Reed-Ford-Green vs. Bakhtiari-Jenkins-Linsley-Turner-Bulaga

Jadeveon Clowney (despite a 3 sack season) is still a stud. His 30 QB pressures (per PFR) had him frequently in opponent's backfield. His length is something that has given the Packers Tackles issues with from other rushers. In addition, he's a tough nut to crack in the run game. His length and strength make him extremely difficult to reach in the Packers zone attack. They will likely be better off looking to other side where Rasheem Green has proven to be a relative non-entity as a pass rusher and will be a much easier mark to run wide against.

The Seahawks run a pretty even DT rotation between Jarran Reed, Poona Ford, and Quinton Jefferson. All three offer different skillsets, but all three are good run defenders for what they're asked to do. Reed is their typical guy who handles the most reps. He's the sort of typical NT build, 6'3-310ish guy who excells at anchoring down against double teams. Quinton Jefferson is a typical 5T build, 6'4 290, and moves really well laterally with a good enough anchor to win more than he losses. He brings a little bit of juice. Poona Ford is an UDFA guy who plays their 3T spot. He's really short at 5'11 but uses it well to play with leverage, and combines some nasty and good lateral quickness to be stickier than you would expect from a guy his size.

Realistically, even with Clowney's contribution, this Seahawks team has been completely unable to put together a pass rush. They're 31st in sacks. They're 28th in pressure percentage. Meanwhile, the Packers Offensive Line has continued to play very well. Bookended by Bakhtiari and Bulaga, the pass protection has been tremendous. The two Tackles have combined for an incredible 6 sacks on the year. Bakhtiari's been a fair contributor in the run game, whereas Bulaga is arguably having the best season of his career. 

Elgton Jenkins has had a pretty darn good year even before taking into account that he's a rookie. If you're willing to put some communication errors early in the year onto Corey Linsley and not the rookie, it's possible to conclude that Jenkins hasn't allowed a sack this season. He's had too many penalties and his pressure rate hasn't been tremendous, but he's been a fighter and not having a single rep where he was whipped cleanly enough to allow a clear sack is impressive. He's also been a strong run defender. His strength and athleticism is on display often, he just needs to get more confident in his reads and what steps he should be taking.

Linsley has been solid as ever. He's been dependable in pass protection and has really started to blossom in the run game under LaFleur. He doesn't have the pure drive skills or the length of the truly elite Centers, but he attacks angles extremely well and has a really nice first step for sealing off defenders. He and Jenkins have started to develop good chemistry with more reps this year.

Billy Turner is the weakest spot on this group, which isn't a cut at all. He's a league average Guard. He's got a really nice anchor and is a naturally good athlete, but he plays upright in a way that you don't usually see out of an athlete of his caliber. It messes up his ability to react and pick up stunters and other guys pushing to shoot gaps that he's not expecting. It's hard to move laterally when playing upright which is why he doesn't show well at Tackle. He's a strong contributor in the run game though. He, Bulaga, and Lewis form a great pair to run behind in short yardage situations. 

+++

Jaire Alexander-Kevin King-Tramon Williams-Adrian Amos-Darnell Savage-Blake Martinez vs. Tyler Lockett-DK Metcalf-David Moore-Jacob Hollister-Travis Homer

Pettine has taken the reins off the defensive backs that he dropped on them after struggles against the Chiefs and Chargers respectively. The return of some man to man coverage was a welcome late season addition the last three weeks of the year against the division opponents. If there was ever a time to match receivers, this game against the Seahawks would be it. Jaire Alexander matches up very well with Tyler Lockett's quick-twitch explosiveness and shiftiness and doesn't need to worry about any potential size mismatch. Alternatively, DK Metcalf's size and vertical may be too much for the shorter Alexander. 

Kevin King offers the opposite skillset. King's length and longspeed offer an ideal matchup against Metcalf (if he can hold his ground at the line) but Lockett's shiftiness may present difficulties. That doesn't mean that Pettine will choose to shadow receivers. He rarely did so this year, and he's still a zone coverage coordinator at heart, but there are options available to the Packers in the secondary if they need to make the adjustment. 

Alexander has allowed a coverage line of: 16 Starts/110 Targets/59 completions/812 yards/4 TDs/2 INTs/82.1 Passer Rating

King has allowed a coverage line of: 14 Starts (15 games)/85 targets/50 completions/864 yards/4 TDs/5 INTs/84.6 Passer Rating

Williams has allowed a coverage line of: 7 Starts (16 games)/57 Targets/33 Completions/363 yards/2TDs/2INTs/73.9 Passer Rating

After the top two guys, the Seahawks become much less intimidating. David Moore started off as the Seahawks 5th receiver on the year but injuries have hit the group hard on depth and what was a platoon has shifted into just Moore. His best two games of the year have been 2 catch performances for 65 and 57 yards. 

Similar to Moore, Hollister wasn't intended to be carrying these reps. None of Nick Vannett, Luke Willson, or Hollister really showed much to separate from the group. He's not a very good blocker. He's not a good receiver. He's in place there as a matter of necessity.

Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny were arguably the most exciting 1-2 punch at RB in the league. And then they got hurt. Enter Travis Homer who is again embodying next-man-upism. He's a decent enough player to operate as a backup role, but he should never have been thrust into the starting role that he has due to injury. The acquisition of Marshawn Lynch was supposed to remedy that somewhat, but that's purely a band-aid. Homer's 11 carries for 12 yards against the Eagles can't have been encouraging. Lynch adding 7 yards on 6 carries to combine for 19 yards on 17 carries has to be encouraging for a Packer defense that hasn't always been the stoutest against the run.

How the Packers are going to utilize their safeties will be much of the story of the game. They'll spend a fair amount of time in the two deep coverage to protect against the two good Seattle WRs vertically. But that leaves Martinez as the only second level defender, which has to be scary if you're worried about Wilson making things happen with his legs. Amos may be dropped into the box as a means of adding some more speed into the secondary. How often who is playing where will tell what Pettine's priority will be in this game.

Neither Hollister nor Homer should scare the Packers enough that they feel they can't ask Martinez to play a little bit of man coverage out of the backfield when and if it becomes necessary. How that will be utilized in accounting for Wilson will be something to watch.

+++

Shaquill Griffin-Trey Flowers-Quandre Diggs-Bradley McDougald-Bobby Wagner-KJ Wright-Cody Barton vs. Davante Adams-Allen Lazard-Marcedes Lewis-Jimmy Graham-Aaron Jones

The Packers are going to try and run the ball. They feel like they have an advantage in the trenches and they're going to want to get Aaron Jones involved early. The Seahawks are 28th in the league in yards per attempt allowed rushing, and Jones has been the lifeblood of the Packers offense in a lot of ways. His 16 rushing TDs have helped to boost an otherwise middling offense, especially in the redzone. 

Griffin and Flowers are two good CBs. They're long and they run pretty darn well. While neither is likely a matchup that the Seahawks will feel good about matched up with Davante Adams, they're at least not likely to be freaking out about it. Over 29 starts they've allowed 1267 yards which is a pretty darn good showing. 

Shaquill Griffin: 14 Starts/77 Targets/44 Completions/559 yards/4 TDs/0INTs/97.3 Rating

Trey Flowers: 15 Starts/101 Targets/61 Completions/708 yards/1 TD/3 INTs/72.5 Rating

Quandre Diggs has been a tremendous mid-season addition for them. He's been everything he was in Detroit and more as both a coverage and a run support safety. 

Bradley McDougald is a decent enough safety on the back end for the Seahawks. He's a far cry from what Kam Chancellor was back when Chancellor was the guy in Seattle, but he won't kill you. 

Bobby Wagner is obviously one of the best ILBs in the league and has been so again this season. 

KJ Wright continues to be the Lance Briggs to Wagner's Urlacher.

Much in the way that the Packers rotate heavy who the 5th skill player will be (Lewis, Allison, MVS, Kumerow, Tonyan, etc.) so do the Seahawks with their 7th guy. Against the Eagles, Barton got the nod. He fills in nicely as the 3rd linebacker in a 4-3 against teams like the Packers and Eagles who run a lot of 2 TE sets. 

Things get very scary for the Seahawks after the top two CBs however. They don't really have a 5th DB that they like to roll out and utilize. If the Packers can utilize one of Allison/MVS/Kumerow to put a 3rd DB on the field for the Seahawks, I'm not sure even Seattle knows what they're going to do. 

+++

Aaron Rodgers vs. Russell Wilson

I'm not doing this comparison. QBs don't play against each other. 

Don't play like **** Aaron. You've got the better roster. No excuse to not win this. 

Thank you for putting this together it was a good read with some nice straight forward information.

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