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When to pick the next QB?


WindyCity

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@RunningVaccs  @Tyty

 

Through 29 regular season games in this offensive scheme:

Trubisky: 64.7% / 6361 yards / 41 TDs / 22 INTs / 6.7 YPA / 88.7 rating

Wentz: 61.51% / 7078 yards / 49 TDs / 21 INTs / 6.76 YPA / 88.8 rating

Smith: 62.57% / 6267 yards / 41 TDs / 13 INTs / 6.76 YPA / 91.3 rating

Foles: 61.74% / 7050 yards / 47 TDs / 17 INTs / 7.66 YPA / 94.8 rating 

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6 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

Even if the stats lined up,  you'd be hard pressed to have watched all of the Bears' games and saying Trubisky is playing at the level of a Wentz or good-year Smith.  Foles is really hard to evaluate for me, as he's turned having an outlier game into a career somehow. 

He has been inconsistent. Alex Smith didn't take off in this offense until year 5. Wentz didn't take off in this offense until years 2-3, and then regressed in year 4.

 

I'm not saying this is what is going to happen, but if you look historically at how QBs develop in this scheme, it takes 3 years to learn and 5 years to master.

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6 minutes ago, G08 said:

He has been inconsistent. Alex Smith didn't take off in this offense until year 5. Wentz didn't take off in this offense until years 2-3, and then regressed in year 4.

 

I'm not saying this is what is going to happen, but if you look historically at how QBs develop in this scheme, it takes 3 years to learn and 5 years to master.

I've used the same argument, so totally understand your point of view.  What has soured me on Trubisky is not the stats, but how he gets there. Specifically the really limited processing, the accuracy and decision making.  Obviously all NFL offenses require those, but I think the Reid/Nagy concepts do more than most. When I've watched the games I often find myself thinking that Trubisky just might not be that smart. 

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8 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

I've used the same argument, so totally understand your point of view.  What has soured me on Trubisky is not the stats, but how he gets there. Specifically the really limited processing, the accuracy and decision making.  Obviously all NFL offenses require those, but I think the Reid/Nagy concepts do more than most. When I've watched the games I often find myself thinking that Trubisky just might not be that smart. 

This jumped out at me because I have thought the same thing, and it's not only when I watch him play the game.

Nagy wants him to master reading coverages so I have to think the kid will be balls-deep in tape all off-season long and hopefully his coaching staff will provide him with more cut-ups of more defenses so he can learn how to quickly decipher pre-snap disguises / post-snap late rotations.

Chase Daniel said on Waddle and Silvy that the biggest thing, mechanically, that Trubisky is going to work on this off-season is his feet. I sincerely hope he works with Tom House on his overall mechanics, but at this point I think if he cleans up the former he won't have to worry as much about the latter. We'll see!

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39 minutes ago, G08 said:

@RunningVaccs  @Tyty

 

Through 29 regular season games in this offensive scheme:

Trubisky: 64.7% / 6361 yards / 41 TDs / 22 INTs / 6.7 YPA / 88.7 rating

Wentz: 61.51% / 7078 yards / 49 TDs / 21 INTs / 6.76 YPA / 88.8 rating

Smith: 62.57% / 6267 yards / 41 TDs / 13 INTs / 6.76 YPA / 91.3 rating

Foles: 61.74% / 7050 yards / 47 TDs / 17 INTs / 7.66 YPA / 94.8 rating 

Yet I keep wondering if those other 3 had two monster games to inflate those numbers how Trubisky had. Truly, I don't know if they did or didn't. If you remove the 2018 Tampa Bay game and the 2019 Washington game, it looks bleak.

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1 minute ago, beardown3231 said:

Yet I keep wondering if those other 3 had two monster games to inflate those numbers how Trubisky had. Truly, I don't know if they did or didn't. If you remove the 2018 Tampa Bay game and the 2019 Washington game, it looks bleak.

That's fair but I try to stay away from "if you take this away // if the WR caught that ball // if the DB hung onto the INT" situations. Over the course of 29 games, those things should balance out. Regardless, at the end of the day the production was there.

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1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

I think Gordon goes 2-3.

He is just steadily climbing like Jimmy G did.

Idk, he might but I think they'd be over-valuing him. I saw a lot more pro potential in Jimmy than Gordon. He seems like a more typical spread system player.

With Mahomes I saw a lot of pro throws, deep outs, anticipating and throwing guys open, hitting between zones and in small windows, etc. Gordon I see a lot more half field reads and schemed open throws that generate a ton of YAC.  He seems way more of the system player than the guy to carry a team to me. 

He may go earlier though, it just takes one team to love his game. 

 

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1 hour ago, G08 said:

@RunningVaccs  @Tyty

 

Through 29 regular season games in this offensive scheme:

Trubisky: 64.7% / 6361 yards / 41 TDs / 22 INTs / 6.7 YPA / 88.7 rating

Wentz: 61.51% / 7078 yards / 49 TDs / 21 INTs / 6.76 YPA / 88.8 rating

Smith: 62.57% / 6267 yards / 41 TDs / 13 INTs / 6.76 YPA / 91.3 rating

Foles: 61.74% / 7050 yards / 47 TDs / 17 INTs / 7.66 YPA / 94.8 rating 

You may a strong statistical argument, however, my gut and eyes tell me he is inconsistent. He may end up getting better and if we retain him, I expect him to have a bounce back year next year. I just don't think he will ever be the guy to lead us to consistent playoff success. 

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2 minutes ago, Nads786 said:

You may a strong statistical argument, however, my gut and eyes tell me he is inconsistent. He may end up getting better and if we retain him, I expect him to have a bounce back year next year. I just don't think he will ever be the guy to lead us to consistent playoff success. 

My hope for him is that he drills down his footwork until it's second nature (sounds like this is what he will be doing in the off-season) and, like Nagy requested, becomes a master at reading coverages. 

However it happens, I just want to see him play the 2020 season like the offense is second nature and he's reacting to the defense instead of slowing himself down and over-thinking everything. Be prepared, hell be over-prepared, go out there and just play. Let the chips fall where they may.

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1 minute ago, Nads786 said:

 I just don't think he will ever be the guy to lead us to consistent playoff success. 

This is not a lesson we really needed, but the Bears right now are a perfect example of why it's better to get the QB right instead of landing a historic defense and hoping the offense can keep up.  Our defense has given us a small window that's already half closed, while teams with great QB play are going to be in contention for the better part of a decade. I'm sick of it.  I would be totally onboard with gutting this team and tanking in 2020 and not letting up until we're sure we've got a QB.  Even after that, keep drafting project QBs to keep strong in the position.  Then get your Mack.  Of course, I say this in January. Come September it's "please please win this game!"

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