Your #1 FA Target

[Heinz D.]

Tom Brady?

C'mon guys. We have to do this at some point...

[WindyCity]

Drew Brees could hit the market.

 

I would gladly sign whatever QB NO does not want to keep.

[AZBearsFan]

3 hours ago, WindyCity said:

Drew Brees could hit the market.

 

I would gladly sign whatever QB NO does not want to keep.

I could see NO doing whatever they can to keep both. Bridgewater clearly functions well there with Payton and he’s only 27, but... Brees is still a better player.

Even if Bridgewater leaves NO I can’t see him coming here without either a guarantee of a starting role in 2020 (which he won’t get) or a better situation than the one he’ll inherit in NO a year or two from now if he continues to be patient as what would probably be the highest paid backup in the league (which we can’t offer). 

[AZBearsFan]

Of the FA QBs I think Mariota makes the most sense but a guy who intrigues me in that role but is currently under contract for 2020 is Tyrod Taylor. 

As disappointing as this season was for Mitch I think the plan is still going to be for him to start in 2020. Pace tied his career to his success in 2017 and because of that he’s not going to (IMO) undermine what hope he still holds out for Mitch to become what he has the potential to be by taking a 2nd rounder this year nor is he bringing in a guy who is going to beat him out in camp. Taylor is a guy who IMO can run the Nagy offense but also a guy who has shown capable of accepting the back seat to the young and developing passer when called on to do so. He’d give us a significantly better chance to win as a starter than Daniel has who can run the full playbook and still provide a veteran presence for the room. 

Many are going to want the full measure change at QB. I think what we’re going to get is a full measure investment in what’s around him. If Mitch ultimately fails it’s going to be because he wasn’t good enough, not because Pace didn’t give him the tools to succeed. I think we’re going to add a big speed WR most likely in the draft to replace Gabriel who isn’t 5’6” and a top FA TE. I also want to see us draft another RB with speed so Nagy can stop trying to force Cohen into being more than the gadget/scat back that he is. 

My top FA target personally is Hunter Henry. I know the injury history but he’s DYNAMIC. He’s exactly what Nagy wants in his TEs. My fallback to Henry is Ebron over Hooper personally. I’ve always liked what he brings to the table, and I think with Hooper being the cleanest of the top TE FA he’s going to have the most troubling price tag for us. 

[JAF-N72EX]

So most agree that QB, TE, and OL are the biggest needs?

Realistically, there aren't a lot of players in free agency who have the sort of talent to take this team to the next level, and there are even fewer free agents that the Bears afford.

The best-case scenario is potential depth players, situational players, or veteran stopgaps.

Tight-End:
Pace already has $12.8M invested at the TE position--currently the 4th highest in the NFL. Nagy already has two tight ends to build his scheme around (Burton/Draft pick), and since there are only so many balls to go around, it would make no sense for either of them to go out and get a high-end player unless they plan on either releasing/trading Burton or don't plan on drafting a TE at all --(which I have a hard time seeing them do beings that this class looks kind of deep at the TE postion).

Nor could I ever see a high-end TE agreeing to put himself in this type of position, because targets mean catches, catches mean yards/TD's, and catches/yards/TD's equal more money!

The negotiation meeting would go something like this: "Hey, we'd like to sign you but our scheme is also being built around our potential 2nd round pick and Burton as well. Is that okay?". *Player's agent*: "I think we'll go in another direction".

Best case we can hope for at TE is a low-end vet, or maybe a blocking TE who will only come in on short-yardage or goal-line situations, and they also need to be able to play ST's as well, and I don't see anyone on this list who fit the bill. No option is ideal.

List of potential free-agent TE's

Realistically
Nick O'Leary
MyCole Pruitt
Blake Bell
Charles Clay
Seth DeValve

Others
Ben Watson = He's 40.
Marcedes Lewis = He's old and he sucks.
Tyler Eifert = Would be intrigued if the low price was right, but too many injuries are a big concern and still doesn't really fill a need.
Daniel Brown = We tried this once, remember?
Hunter Henry = Too expensive for us and he is not worth the money.
Austin Hooper = WAAYY Too expensive. Higbee just got an extension for 15M in GD money and another 4 in SB and that's wasn't even in the open market. 
Nick Vannett = He isn't going anywhere because they spent a 5th on him, and he wants to play with Ben next year.

-----------------------------

QB: TLDR version: I feel like Pace believes in Mitch so much that he is willing to live and die with him and so the best that we can expect is a Teddy type QB at this point in free agency--god I hope not. 

Pace pretty much put his job on the line when he ultimately went all-in with Mitch, and I'm not talking about trading up for him either. I'm talking about going all-out to try and build a TEAM around him with hopes of him becoming the QB that he had envisioned in the first place. 

That said, whether or not Pace/Nagy is going into the draft with the idea of using an early 2-3 rnd pick on a QB is anyone's guess at this point but I personally don't think it's going to happen for reasons above. (Even though I think they should)

Kind of unrelated side note, I still have a (bad) gut feeling that either Cam or Winston will be on our roster at some point (in the same way I predicted Peppers) and I hope to hell I'm dead wrong.  

Anyhow, here some of the potential FA's.

List of potential free-agent QBs

Ryan Tannehill - No! Don't believe the hype.
Tom Brady - LOL! He's not going anywhere while Belichick is still there.
Philip Rivers - He would cost too much in the open market.
Teddy Bridgewater - No! Don't believe the hype.
Dak Prescott - He's not a QB would put us over the top. Besides, he's not going anywhere. 
Case Keenum - Backup.
Cam Newton - Fits the (perceived) Nagy's offensive philosophy and can be good at times but his injuries have caught up to him. He would be a slightly better Mitch at this point at a higher cost.
Jameis Winston - This is my amused face: (blank). 
AJ McCarron - Haha...yeah right.
Marcus Mariota - Most logical choice. He can be a good QB but needs to be surrounded by enough talent to mask his flaws.
Matt Moore - Chase Daniel >>>Matt Moore.....enough said.
Mike Glennon - We tried this, remember?
Eli Manning - Will probably go down as the most overrated HOF QB of all time.
Josh McCown - We tried this, remember?
Sean Mannion - I haven't watched enough about him to comment.
Brett Hundley - Former multiple draft pick QB per GB fans....yeah, no. 
Blake Bortles - I would give Glennon another chance before him.
Geno Smith - I would give Bortles a chance before him.

----------------------

OL: RG is an obvious hole with Long's situation that needs to be addressed. Whitehair is still one of the best CENTERS, NOT "guards" in the NFL (talking to you Helfrich, even though you helped him with is botched snap issues). Daniels is a 2nd round pick who had a solid year in '18 and 1 down year in '19 while learning a new offense at a different position at the NFL level--give him a chance, he's earned it, IMO. Leno isn't going anywhere. His contract all but guarantees that he will be a Bear for at least two more seasons. People are too hard on Massie. But since everyone so inclined to replace him, who are the better potential options out of these guys that we can afford?

List of potential free-agent QBs
J'Marcus Webb - I've laughed at him so much over the years that I don't even know how to respond anymore.
Marshall Newhouse - We don't need a stopgap at tackle, especially at his price.
George Fant - 3 years coming from what is essentially a (terrible) plug and play system and has not yet even had 16 full season games under his belt??? No.
Kelvin Beachum - Would not be game-changing but would the move be worth at for the cost? I don't think so. At all. 
Greg Robinson - Bust
Anthony Castonzo - Not going anywhere and If this were 2-3 years ago.
Jason Peters - Not going anywhere and If this were 2-3 years ago.
Donald Penn - If this were 2-3 years ago.
DJ Humphries - Bust.
Andrew Whitworth - Not going anywhere and If this were 2-3 years ago.
Brent Qvale - Don't know enough about him to comment
Ben Ijalana - Yeah right.
John Wetzel - We could a swing but not him. I still remember when he got beat by freaking Bostic when replacing (forgot his name). 
Josh Wells - Don't know enough about him to comment

[RJ_11]

42 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said:

 

Kind of unrelated side note, I still have a (bad) gut feeling that either Cam or Winston will be on our roster at some point (in the same way I predicted Peppers) and I hope to hell I'm dead wrong.  

 

Good post @JustAnotherFan. Handed you a football but please let it be known that you deserved that football for all of the post except this bit  Cam potentially being available scares the hell out of me.

One QB not on your list, Andy Dalton? Thoughts on him? That's one I really wouldn't be surprised with if he's a Bear in 2020.

[RJ_11]

Just now, RJ_11 said:

Good post @JustAnotherFan. Handed you a football but please let it be known that you deserved that football for all of the post except this bit  Cam potentially being available scares the hell out of me.

One QB not on your list, Andy Dalton? Thoughts on him? That's one I really wouldn't be surprised with if he's a Bear in 2020.

Side note: I agree with your thoughts on the TE position, no way we're investing more heavy money there. I'd LOVE Henry or Hooper, but we can't afford them. I think the team still trusts a healthy Burton. He wasn't healthy for the entirety of 2019 so I kind of throw that season out. I'm still holding out hope that the surgery he's having sorts his issues out and he can be good again in 2020.

That said, I think we've seen the last of Shaheen. I think a cheap vet is signed or we draft a TE to replace him.

[JAF-N72EX]

37 minutes ago, RJ_11 said:

Good post @JustAnotherFan. Handed you a football but please let it be known that you deserved that football for all of the post except this bit  Cam potentially being available scares the hell out of me.

Scares m too man, but I wouldn't rule it out at all anywhere from now until week 6 of 2021.

But again, I really hope I'm wrong.

38 minutes ago, RJ_11 said:

One QB not on your list, Andy Dalton? Thoughts on him? That's one I really wouldn't be surprised with if he's a Bear in 2020.

Good mention. I forgot about him. 

No thanks. He's easily confused by defenses (we have already that in mitch). He doesn't have the mobility to fit in Nagy's (perceived) offense. He's a precision passer who only gets by with targets having a large catch radius and has an arm strength that is only getting worse as time goes on despite his relatively young age. All of these traits are a bad fit for an offense with targets who already struggle to create separation and gain yards after catch or contact. IMO.  

I thought it was stupid when the Bengals gave him a 100M extension then, and think it was even more stupid now. But hey....someone like a Hue Jackson type might be willing to give him a huge deal.

41 minutes ago, RJ_11 said:

Side note: I agree with your thoughts on the TE position, no way we're investing more heavy money there. I'd LOVE Henry or Hooper, but we can't afford them. I think the team still trusts a healthy Burton. He wasn't healthy for the entirety of 2019 so I kind of throw that season out. I'm still holding out hope that the surgery he's having sorts his issues out and he can be good again in 2020.

That said, I think we've seen the last of Shaheen. I think a cheap vet is signed or we draft a TE to replace him.

Same here. I think the staff trusts Burton enough to keep him and I don't think he goes anywhere. Shaheen MIGHT stay on the team only because of his rookie contract (doesn't cost anything since he's below the top-51) but I doubt he sees any significant snaps. Especially with Holtz showing at least more promise than him. Sowell is prob all but gone at this point. No reason to keep him around as he offers nothing that we don't already have.

[dll2000]

@JustAnotherFan

Quote

So most agree that QB, TE, and OL are the biggest needs?

We are just 9 offensive starters away.

[Heinz D.]

12 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Pace already has $12.8M invested at the TE position--currently the 4th highest in the NFL. Nagy already has two tight ends to build his scheme around (Burton/Draft pick), and since there are only so many balls to go around, it would make no sense for either of them to go out and get a high-end player unless they plan on either releasing/trading Burton or don't plan on drafting a TE at all --(which I have a hard time seeing them do beings that this class looks kind of deep at the TE postion).

Confused as to why they wouldn't release Burton. The guy has turned out to be a complete bust. 

12 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

That said, whether or not Pace/Nagy is going into the draft with the idea of using an early 2-3 rnd pick on a QB is anyone's guess at this point but I personally don't think it's going to happen for reasons above. (Even though I think they should)

If they're truly that attached to Mitch (and I'm not saying you're wrong in your assessment)--then they'll both be fired after the 2020 season anyway, the team is then scrambled, and all of our careful consideration into solving the mess that is the Bears is wasted time. 

[AZBearsFan]

11 hours ago, RJ_11 said:

Side note: I agree with your thoughts on the TE position, no way we're investing more heavy money there. I'd LOVE Henry or Hooper, but we can't afford them. I think the team still trusts a healthy Burton. He wasn't healthy for the entirety of 2019 so I kind of throw that season out. I'm still holding out hope that the surgery he's having sorts his issues out and he can be good again in 2020.

That said, I think we've seen the last of Shaheen. I think a cheap vet is signed or we draft a TE to replace him.

I don’t think that the current investment in TE is preclusive to us spending on another top FA there at all, for several reasons: 

1- Burton can be cut for $1.75M in dead cap after 2020 ($7.1M cap savings).

2- Unless we pay starter money to a FA QB (unlikely) we will still be paying well under the league average at QB for 2020.

3- We are paying NOTHING at RB in salary. Right now we have 3 rostered RBs reasonably likely to make the 2020 roster (DM, Cohen and Nall). 2 of them are on non-first round rookie contracts and the other on a UDFA contract. 

4- Outside of ARob, who IMO is going to land a huge extension this offseason that will significantly reduce his 2020 cap hit, after we presumably cut Gabriel we are paying NOTHING at WR either. Miller, Ridley and Wims are all on non-first round rookie deals (NOTE: I lump Patterson’s salary in with our ST budget, where we are paying a rookie salary to our kicker and less than $2M to O’Donnell).

5- We once again don’t have to pay a first round pick salary in 2020. 

[AZBearsFan]

2 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Confused as to why they wouldn't release Burton. The guy has turned out to be a complete bust. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/trey-burton-14668/

$8.5M cap hit if he’s on the team. $7.5M cap hit if he’s not. 

There’s just so little savings to moving on. When healthy he’s a good-not-great player. 54/569/6 in 2018 is certainly a player with value. Our offense was noticeably worse when he was out or limited in the 2018 playoff and 2019 season. It’s really the reason I expect us to target anyone and everyone we can who can fill that role in FA. If Burton is healthy too and we can Philly or Baltimore this thing with 2 completely legitimate receiving TEs then that’s a GREAT problem for us to have. 

[Heinz D.]

2 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

$8.5M cap hit if he’s on the team. $7.5M cap hit if he’s not. 

Didn't realize the cap hit was that big. Or read it and forgot. Whichever. 

Wow. That's a puzzler, then. I actually do like the crew Pace assembled on the fly. Maybe we can keep hold of that. Holtz, Horstead, Braunecker...

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

9 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Didn't realize the cap hit was that big. Or read it and forgot. Whichever. 

Wow. That's a puzzler, then. I actually do like the crew Pace assembled on the fly. Maybe we can keep hold of that. Holtz, Horstead, Braunecker...

Yeah,  the money is sunk, so unless they are desperate for the roster spot it makes more sense ot keep him around and hope he gets back to 2018 form, which was pretty good. 

[G08]

5 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

Yeah,  the money is sunk, so unless they are desperate for the roster spot it makes more sense ot keep him around and hope he gets back to 2018 form, which was pretty good. 

It's why I am okay with over-paying for Henry or Hooper and then drafting a TE high on day two. Let the rookie serve as insurance to Burton and eventually take over his job in 2021.

Tough to get instant production out of a rookie TE, especially in this offense.