Soko Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Calvert28 said: What do these stats prove again? You missed what I was talking about in my post, whether we were down 1 point, or 50 they are not indicative of what garbage time meaning. These stats that you are using im curious if you are even looking up the situational stats of some of the other RB's. Which BTW are quite similar that their averages including the amount of TD's they get seem to go up with the 15+ point margin. Not sure how this ONLY applies to Zeke. I never said it only applies to Zeke or that other backs wouldn’t have similarish splits. But it’s also a fact that Zeke has better efficiency and better production (at least this past season) the further the game is out of reach. (They’re not similar btw, see below). Quote Well of course I would think a team like the Pats would have an easier time getting ready to play a contender during the regular season when they were able to have an easier time dealing with the Dolphins or Bills and such when they were contending for Top 5 draft picks in years past. A) This has been debunked and I’ve posted it a half dozen times now. AFCE has been middle-to-upper of the pack if you exclude NE and each of the division’s best teams in the same span. Same with WC appearances compared to most divisions. Same with W/L vs other divisions. B) Playing bad opponents doesn’t “get you ready” for the good teams. You don’t learn anything about yourself without adversity. Quote I already admitted he had a down year this year. But you can also go through and find games for any number of these guys and find where they failed to reach the 100 yd game. Its rare for any back to have that type of production so consistently. Yeah, but you said his production was there vs NE/GB/BUF. It wasn’t, and it wasn’t vs the other playoff teams except for the first run vs Philly. Quote Garbage time again is when one team has a massive advantage over another as I said before. Generally this means towards the end of the games when that point differential is evident, that is the most common place for garbage time. And yet nearly 57% of Zeke's carries came in the first half. With 850 of yards of his rushing yards accounting for that. Only 507 of the yards came in the 2nd half with a near 160 yards coming within the last 2 minutes of each half. So how can the guy pad so much of his stats in Garbage Time when the bulk of it comes when there is no clear indication of who the winner will be? I mean, that’s your opinion of garbage time. If you’re down by 50 at half, I (and I assume others) would call that garbage time. If however you get it to within a possession or two come the end of the game, it changes. It doesn’t have to be *GARBAGE TIME* and no going back. The stats I posted do not have that standard and are strictly counted off of whatever the score is at the time the rushes occurred. What they showed was that Zeke produced more when the games were further out of reach. Quote If any the fact that he has has more yards in the first half as opposed to the 2nd and yet his highest averages of production comes from those 15+ margins (much like every other back in the league) leads me to believe that when they were down, they went away from the running. Sticking to pass to try and cover lost ground more quickly which actually is what happened during that really bad stretch in the middle of the season. You’d be wrong in that assumption, Zeke had more carries while the Cowboys were behind (128) vs when the Cowboys were ahead (109). He also managed to get 3.9 YPC while behind, 3.9 YPC while tied, and 5.6 YPC while ahead (5.1 YPC during a one score lead, 7.3 YPC in a two+ score game). And I wouldn’t say “much like every other back in the league”, either. Zeke’s 3.3 YPC in close games (0-7 point margin) is significantly behind Henry’s (5.1), McCaffrey’s (4.8), Chubb’s (4.6), and Cook’s (4.3). And those are just the only ones I checked. Zeke’s splits, apparently, are not the norm for the other elite/great backs in the league this year. Quote I mean you bring up these stats and yet you clearly ignore others that tell a whole different story about the situation. I brought up the stats because they were relevant to what you were saying. Edited January 11, 2020 by Yin-Yang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calvert28 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: I never said it only applies to Zeke or that other backs wouldn’t have similarish splits. But it’s also a fact that Zeke has better efficiency and better production (at least this past season) the further the game is out of reach. That is not showing when he is getting those yards. Whether it is actually in garbage time or when the game is close. My point was to simply point that out. 4 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: (They’re not similar btw, see below). A) This has been debunked and I’ve posted it a half dozen times now. AFCE has been middle-to-upper of the pack if you exclude NE and each of the division’s best teams in the same span. Same with WC appearances compared to most divisions. Same with W/L vs other divisions. Since when? At best they have been middle to upper of the pack, but I think I could count those times on one hand for all 3 teams when they have been a playoff caliber team with the record to prove it. They have been picking near or in the Top 10 far mroe then they have been picking in the 20's. 4 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: B) Playing bad opponents doesn’t “get you ready” for the good teams. You don’t learn anything about yourself without adversity. No but it does help keep you fresher when you aren't playing against elite teams week in and week out. Sure adversity is a great teacher, and it can also rob you of your health and best players on the team if done too much. Pats have been very fortunate in that regard. But I digress, I was not sitting there claiming that the Pats should be knocked. But shouldn't. 4 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: Yeah, but you said his production was there vs NE/GB/BUF. It wasn’t, and it wasn’t vs the other playoff teams except for the first run vs Philly. I said Dallas had production against them. 4 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: I mean, that’s your opinion of garbage time. If you’re down by 50 at half, I (and I assume others) would call that garbage time. If however you get it to within a possession or two come the end of the game, it changes. It doesn’t have to be *GARBAGE TIME* and no going back. The stats I posted do not have that standard and are strictly counted off of whatever the score is at the time the rushes occurred. What they showed was that Zeke produced more when the games were further out of reach. Again when are those stats produced, you still never answered that. I gave a basic time of when they were and it is a strong one considering there was an entire half of football yet to play and that's where the bulk of his stats were. 4 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: You’d be wrong in that assumption, Zeke had more carries while the Cowboys were behind (128) vs when the Cowboys were ahead (109). He also managed to get 3.9 YPC while behind, 3.9 YPC while tied, and 5.6 YPC while ahead (5.1 YPC during a one score lead, 7.3 YPC in a two+ score game). No I am really not. The bulk of the carries have come in the first half when the Cowboys were still trailing opponents going into the half. That does not mean they were coming towards the end of the game in which the carries he got were far less. 4 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: And I wouldn’t say “much like every other back in the league”, either. Zeke’s 3.3 YPC in close games (0-7 point margin) is significantly behind Henry’s (5.1), McCaffrey’s (4.8), Chubb’s (4.6), and Cook’s (4.3). And those are just the only ones I checked. Zeke’s splits, apparently, are not the norm for the other elite/great backs in the league this year. I brought up the stats because they were relevant to what you were saying. Again when does that 0-7 margin come into play? During the 3rd when they are down 14? Was there only a 7 point margin throughout the 4 quarters? Those margin's do nothing to show when any of these carries are taking place or the situation of how they are taking place? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 32 minutes ago, Calvert28 said: That is not showing when he is getting those yards. Whether it is actually in garbage time or when the game is close. My point was to simply point that out. It is exactly showing that his production is down when the game is close. I think you’re confused on how that stat is tracked. Quote I said Dallas had production against them. Gotcha, Dallas as a whole (was short vs NE and below average vs Buffalo, still, but besides the point). Quote Again when are those stats produced, you still never answered that. I gave a basic time of when they were and it is a strong one considering there was an entire half of football yet to play and that's where the bulk of his stats were. They’re produced whenever the point margins are within those point margins... Quote No I am really not. The bulk of the carries have come in the first half when the Cowboys were still trailing opponents going into the half. That does not mean they were coming towards the end of the game in which the carries he got were far less. “Leads me to believe that when the Cowboys are behind, they go away from running the ball” Zeke has more carries while behind than with a lead. Quote Again when does that 0-7 margin come into play? During the 3rd when they are down 14? Was there only a 7 point margin throughout the 4 quarters? Those margin's do nothing to show when any of these carries are taking place or the situation of how they are taking place? Let me clear it up because I’m not sure where the confusion is. Game starts off 0-0. Any rush attempts at this point will count for (0-7) margin. Team A scores a TD and score is 7-0. Any rush attempts still count towards (0-7). Now Team A scores again and the score is 14-0. Now the point margin is 14, so rush attempts will fall under the (8-14) margin. Now let’s say Team B comes back and scores, making it 14-7. Attempts fall back into (0-7 category). So it’s fluid. No designated time and end score doesn’t matter. Henry, Cook, McCaffrey, Chubb - they all rush more efficiently than Zeke does in close games, margin 0-7. Zeke’s low 3.3 YPC there definitely is not the norm for the better running backs in the league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calvert28 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: It is exactly showing that his production is down when the game is close. I think you’re confused on how that stat is tracked. No not "when" it only shows what games "end". They are totaling up the carries in the games that have a 15+ margin. It is not the same thing. You can go through and calculate them yourself for any prospect. Its the truth. This has nothing to do with in game splits, the info is misleading. 11 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: Gotcha, Dallas as a whole (was short vs NE and below average vs Buffalo, still, but besides the point). They’re produced whenever the point margins are within those point margins... No, I think its a fairly good point on my part in what im trying to show. This was the first year that Dak truly became the focul point of the offense. And while his passing numbers flourished, Zeke's production did not take much of a hit and this is despite the claims that he was fat. 11 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: “Leads me to believe that when the Cowboys are behind, they go away from running the ball” Zeke has more carries while behind than with a lead. I've watched nearly all the games this season. They were rarely ahead at all this season, most of the time playing catchup aside from the first 3 games and I think the Eagles and Rams game this season where they kept a steady lead. 11 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: Let me clear it up because I’m not sure where the confusion is. Game starts off 0-0. Any rush attempts at this point will count for (0-7) margin. Team A scores a TD and score is 7-0. Any rush attempts still count towards (0-7). Now Team A scores again and the score is 14-0. Now the point margin is 14, so rush attempts will fall under the (8-14) margin. Now let’s say Team B comes back and scores, making it 14-7. Attempts fall back into (0-7 category). I understand what you as saying. I am just saying that is not the way it's being calculated on the NFL.com website. You can simple add up the total carries of each game whether you are looking at the 0-7, 8-14 margins as well, they are the same. It is coming from the games alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raves Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Nope it's Alvin Kamara... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 25 minutes ago, Calvert28 said: No not "when" it only shows what games "end". They are totaling up the carries in the games that have a 15+ margin. It is not the same thing. I see, let me re-phrase under the point margin category since I’ve been messing up: Up 1-8: 302 yards, 5.1 YPC Up 9-16: 161 yards, 7.1 YPC Tied: 249 yards, 3.9 YPC Behind 1-8: 288 yards, 3.6 YPC Behind 9-16: 165 yards, 4.7 YPC Still shows a lack of efficiency in close games. 25 minutes ago, Calvert28 said: No, I think its a fairly good point on my part in what im trying to show. This was the first year that Dak truly became the focul point of the offense. And while his passing numbers flourished, Zeke's production did not take much of a hit and this is despite the claims that he was fat. ??? You said they went away from running the ball. Zeke’s got more attempts behind than ahead. And his production dips 5.6 YPC to 3.9 YPC. 25 minutes ago, Calvert28 said: I've watched nearly all the games this season. They were rarely ahead at all this season, most of the time playing catchup aside from the first 3 games and I think the Eagles and Rams game this season where they kept a steady lead. They were ranked 16th in time spent leading. “Rarely ahead at all” is a complete overreach. 25 minutes ago, Calvert28 said: I understand what you as saying. I am just saying that is not the way it's being calculated on the NFL.com website. You can simple add up the total carries of each game whether you are looking at the 0-7, 8-14 margins as well, they are the same. It is coming from the games alone. I was reading the wrong stat before, my bad. Amended above. Zeke takes a dip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calvert28 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Yin-Yang said: I see, let me re-phrase under the point margin category since I’ve been messing up: Up 1-8: 302 yards, 5.1 YPC Up 9-16: 161 yards, 7.1 YPC Tied: 249 yards, 3.9 YPC Behind 1-8: 288 yards, 3.6 YPC Behind 9-16: 165 yards, 4.7 YPC Still shows a lack of efficiency in close games. I fail to see how? Even using those stats the numbers total and otherwise are very consistent aside from the averages. Zeke has always been used as a bell cow to push the markers and has not often been used in a dual threat package where the goal is to put the back into open space. He has done what the game plan required and looking at all the other bell cows over the years he has been incredibly efficient. There is a reason why his averages have not been Jamaal Charles or Chris Johnson in comparison. Quote ??? You said they went away from running the ball. Zeke’s got more attempts behind than ahead. And his production dips 5.6 YPC to 3.9 YPC. Opponent's were usually the first to score on us. Again often times we were playing catch up the entire game. Quote They were ranked 16th in time spent leading. “Rarely ahead at all” is a complete overreach. Something about this isn't adding up. The Cowboys ranked 24th in number of drives (175) and had an average TOP of 29 minutes per game, with an average possession affording them 2:42 minutes of game time. They were easily in the Top 5 of most successful offenses in terms of scoring ranked at No.4 at around 45% chance of scoring per drive. Further more they have trailed 16 times this season with opponents having scored in opening possession 9 times out of the 16 game stretch. 5 of them the Cowboys managed to come back and win when they have scored first. How is it that a team can be 16 in time leading when trailing so many times during the season? Considering their drives are some of the longest time eaters in the NFL? I can only guess that when they lead in some of those blow outs, they did so from the very start of the game without letting the other teams like the Dolphins, Giants, Redskins, Eagles and such not even a chance to even tie which inflated that stat. I need to look it up,. Edited January 12, 2020 by Calvert28 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
43M Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 He is certainly up there. THE best? I dont think there is an unequivocal best RB right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 24 minutes ago, Calvert28 said: I fail to see how? Even using those stats the numbers total and otherwise are very consistent aside from the averages. Zeke has always been used as a bell cow to push the markers and has not often been used in a dual threat package where the goal is to put the back into open space. He has done what the game plan required and looking at all the other bell cows over the years he has been incredibly efficient. There is a reason why his averages have not been Jamaal Charles or Chris Johnson in comparison. We’re moving goal posts now. I came in to reiterate that Zeke’s production was down when the game was close and came more easily when the game was out of reach. Whether or not that’s what the Cowboys wanted (seems kind of dumb to want your RB to have less yards in close games) is irrelevant. Derrick Henry is a bell cow that has better splits. Cook is a bell cow with better splits. McCaffrey has better splits. Chubb’s were pretty similar, fwiw. Quote Opponent's were usually the first to score on us. Again often times we were playing catch up the entire game. Something about this isn't adding up. The Cowboys ranked 24th in number of drives (175) and had an average TOP of 29 minutes per game, with an average possession affording them 2:42 minutes of game time. They were easily in the Top 5 of most successful offenses in terms of scoring ranked at No.4 at around 45% chance of scoring per drive. Further more they have trailed 16 times this season with opponents having scored in opening possession 9 times out of the 16 game stretch. 5 of them the Cowboys managed to come back and win when they have scored first. How is it that a team can be 16 in time leading when trailing so many times during the season? Considering their drives are some of the longest time eaters in the NFL? I can only guess that when they lead in some of those blow outs, they did so from the very start of the game without letting the other teams like the Dolphins, Giants, Redskins, Eagles and such not even a chance to even tie which inflated that stat. I need to look it up,. If you find a better one, you can share. Here is football outsiders, where I was looking: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/pacestats/2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMossIsBoss Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Barkley DERRICK HENRY Zeke McCaffrey Chubb Kamara Dalvin Carson Mixon Aaron Jones Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ttitansfan4life Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 12 hours ago, RandyMossIsBoss said: Barkley DERRICK HENRY Zeke McCaffrey Chubb Kamara Dalvin Carson Mixon Aaron Jones Not sure who this Derrick Henry guy is. Are you referring to King Henry? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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