How would you feel if Haskins isn’t the starter?

[turtle28]

Obviously Rivera has to have a talk with Dwayne and tell him the difference between college recruiting and the pros.

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[turtle28]

18 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

[naptownskinsfan]

On 3/18/2020 at 10:55 PM, HTTRDynasty said:

 

I've posted this in a few other places, so I'll post it here.  A veteran QB makes a lot of sense when you factor in that this is a new head coach, with another new offensive system for Haskins to learn.  Then, factor in that the situation surrounding Covid-19 likely means that OTA's mini camps and even training camps are likely to be truncated or called off all together, a veteran QB to push Haskins, if not start the year as QB, makes a lot of sense.  Newton likely costs too much money, same with Jameis Winston, but Joe Flacco is out there, and he's a perfect fit in the Coryell offense.  I also say that as someone who isn't a fan of Flacco at all, but on a one year deal, it makes sense for the Redskins to consider it. 

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[turtle28]

42 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

[HTTRDynasty]

 

 

Between free agency and the draft, there has been much ink dedicated to the idea that the Washington Redskins will look to either replace Dwayne Haskins or at least give him competition ahead of the 2020 NFL season. 

Head coach Ron Rivera has no ties to Haskins, who was drafted by the old regime, and this offseason has been an incredibly quarterback-rich environment with the draft still to come. Washington’s only move so far was to trade for Kyle Allen from the Carolina Panthers in a move that speaks simply to familiarity and contingency, not competition.

At No. 2 overall in the draft, the Redskins could take Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa in a move reminiscent of what the Arizona Cardinals did a season ago, but there’s another future to consider — what if they believe Dwayne Haskins can be good, and what if they believe they’re set at quarterback?

The rush to write off Haskins has been strange in an era where the slightest glimmer of upside at the position usually has teams clinging desperately to potential, often to the detriment of reality. 

It’s not that the move to draft Tua would be, in isolation, a bad one — until you are certain you have a viable starting quarterback, the data says you should keep swinging — it’s just that the difference in attitude that many seem to have toward Haskins compared to the other second-year quarterbacks is difficult to justify.

Kyler Murray showed enough last year to not only convince Cardinals fans that it was the right move to swap Josh Rosen, but also that he is the answer long-term. The New York Giants fans are doing victory laps because of Daniel Jones’ rookie year, and the Jacksonville Jaguars just traded away Nick Foles — a year after handing him a hefty contract — having been sold on the notion that Gardner Minshew is a better bet for the future. Even the Broncos feel they finally have an answer in the form of Drew Lock. 

Only Minshew had a higher PFF grade than Haskins last season, and the three first-rounders plus Minshew all had a grade between 64.2 and 70.3 overall.

Obviously, Haskins did it on fewer snaps, so that grade is inherently more fragile — he had around half the dropbacks that Minshew, Jones and Murray did as rookies — but it’s still curious that the reaction to the performances is so different.

WHY IS THIS THE CASE?

Name	PFF grade	Dropbacks	Big-time throws	Turnover-worthy plays	BTT%	TWP%
Gardner Minshew	70.3	556	18	19	3.6%	3.8%
Dwayne Haskins	67.6	245	8	5	3.7%	2.3%
Daniel Jones	65.7	527	20	31	4.1%	6.3%
Kyler Murray	64.2	620	23	18	4.0%	3.1%

Part of the explanation comes from the rough start Haskins had to his NFL career. He looked poor in training camp, and there were reports that he was struggling to learn the team’s plays, which had been the thing keeping him off the field until Case Keenum was concussed and the switch was forced upon the team.

While Daniel Jones had to fight past Eli Manning to start, Washington had little reason not to turn to Haskins as soon as he was able for it, but they had to be forced into the move. When Haskins did finally first see NFL action, it seemed to be justification for the reluctance to start him in the first place. In just 28 dropbacks across the first two games, he accounted for four of the seven interceptions he threw as a rookie.

At that point, Haskins was fighting the pervasive narrative and fighting an uphill battle to change the story. After his first game, the New York Giants’ Twitter account was calling out draft takes, but Haskins hit the ground with an ugly thump and needed to slowly reverse opinions. The other thing hurting him is that his overall box score numbers from the season look worse than the play-by-play analysis of his game.

He had just seven touchdowns to seven picks, but he actually had fewer turnover-worthy plays than interceptions. Typically, those numbers work in reverse (defenders drop a lot of would-be picks, so the number of interceptions is usually lower than the number of plays that should have been turnovers). Daniel Jones, for example, had 31 turnover-worthy plays compared to just 12 interceptions. Murray had six more, and Minshew had 12 more. Haskins, in fact, was the only rookie passer to end up with more turnovers than turnover-worthy plays, and that skews the narrative.

 

Haskins actually had by far the lowest turnover-worthy play rate (2.3%) of any of those rookie passers. But of course, mistakes are only one part of the story. Avoiding mistakes but rarely making any big plays on the other side consigns a passer to life as a “game manager,” which in today’s league might as well be synonymous with “career backup.” 

Haskins was definitely too conservative at the start of his playing time, and overall, he ended the year with just seven touchdowns and eight big-time throws, but what’s interesting was how he opened up as the season wore on. Indeed, while it had been Terry McLaurin that had been looking like a star all year despite the quarterback play, suddenly he couldn’t haul in a couple of Haskins’ best throws.

Take this play as an example. McLaurin wins on his release one-on-one at the line of scrimmage. This is a green light for any quarterback to put the ball in the air and give his receiver a chance to make the play, and Haskins does exactly that and throws an accurate deep pass to his top receiver. 

While McLaurin had been bailing out his quarterbacks all season long, on this occasion, he lets the ball sail right through his hands, giving Haskins an incompletion on the stat sheet where he should have had a big play. This isn’t to criticize McLaurin outside of this one play but instead serves as a reminder that the quality of the supporting cast is only ever a general guideline when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks. As much as McLaurin helped Haskins on the season, he hurt him on this particular play, and that’s why only the PFF grades can paint an accurate picture.

Overall, all of the rookies actually had remarkably similar big-time throw rates, and while Haskins (3.7%) was marginally behind Jones (4.1%) and Murray (4.0%), it was a far closer thing than just looking at the raw number of touchdowns — a number influenced by receivers, defenders, etc. — would have you believe, thanks to plays precisely like the one above.

Haskins didn’t have the best accuracy numbers from the group (fourth in adjusted completion rate, second to last in advanced ball-location charting accuracy), but he also had the highest average depth of target of the group (9.1 yards) and only Terry McLaurin when it came to reliable receiving options. 

From Week 13 onward, Haskins had an overall PFF grade of 78.0, six points higher than any other rookie (Jones at 72.2). This is a sample size of just 120 dropbacks, so from a statistical standpoint, it is a very unsound way of predicting anything, but it’s a notable data point given the context of uncertainty about Haskins’ ability.

There also seems to be the notion that Haskins just wasn’t that good a prospect to begin with, and so obviously a quarterback like Tua represents an obvious upgrade. I’m not so sure about that. Haskins has arm talent for days, and while there were issues with him as a prospect, talent is clearly there in abundance.

ARM TALENT

When you watch his tape, his arm talent jumps off the page. When he sees the play and lets fly, he has the ability to fit the ball into tight windows, and/or even deliver exceptionally accurate passes with touch. His arm even allows him to be a little late on throws, which happened more than once this season, and it buys him a little breathing room while the game slows down for him in a way some other young passers (Minshew) can’t rely on. 

Take a look at this shot to Chris Thompson against Carolina. The Panthers’ coverage bails into quarters, and the flat has linebacker Shaq Thompsonoccupying it, so Haskins is being faced with a closing window to fit in his pass from the far hash mark.

This is a big-boy NFL throw, the kind they try and simulate in the pre-draft process, because not every quarterback has the arm to get this pass in there. Haskins has it there with room to spare, and this was a feature of his high-end plays this season. He has the kind of arm to make special throws, and the sort of plays that would ordinarily excite fans and analysts alike, but for some reason, they aren’t being talked about nearly enough.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The bottom line is that none of the rookies really did enough to remove all doubt that they will be the future of their franchise for years to come. They all did good things and bad things, and while Haskins certainly did less of both due to his relative lack of playing time, it’s worth noting that when you look at the data points on a per-snap basis, he compares well to the others.

Washington has plenty of holes to fill on their roster, and if Tagovailoa medically checks out and is very much in play at No. 2 overall, they would likely be far better served to trade back and assemble draft picks to build around Haskins than they would be drafting his direct competition. 

Haskins showed plenty of flashes of why he was a first-round pick, and while his transition to the NFL may have been bumpier than that of some of his peers, he had only started in college for a relatively short period of time and is still early on in his development as a quarterback.

While everybody else is eager to imagine a future where he has competition for his job or a camp battle with Tagovailoa on his hands, I’m far more intrigued by imagining a future where the team gives him more than one reliable receiver to target, and we get to see him with another year of development under his belt. 

 

[turtle28]

2 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

 

Between free agency and the draft, there has been much ink dedicated to the idea that the Washington Redskins will look to either replace Dwayne Haskins or at least give him competition ahead of the 2020 NFL season. 

Head coach Ron Rivera has no ties to Haskins, who was drafted by the old regime, and this offseason has been an incredibly quarterback-rich environment with the draft still to come. Washington’s only move so far was to trade for Kyle Allen from the Carolina Panthers in a move that speaks simply to familiarity and contingency, not competition.

At No. 2 overall in the draft, the Redskins could take Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa in a move reminiscent of what the Arizona Cardinals did a season ago, but there’s another future to consider — what if they believe Dwayne Haskins can be good, and what if they believe they’re set at quarterback?

The rush to write off Haskins has been strange in an era where the slightest glimmer of upside at the position usually has teams clinging desperately to potential, often to the detriment of reality. 

It’s not that the move to draft Tua would be, in isolation, a bad one — until you are certain you have a viable starting quarterback, the data says you should keep swinging — it’s just that the difference in attitude that many seem to have toward Haskins compared to the other second-year quarterbacks is difficult to justify.

Kyler Murray showed enough last year to not only convince Cardinals fans that it was the right move to swap Josh Rosen, but also that he is the answer long-term. The New York Giants fans are doing victory laps because of Daniel Jones’ rookie year, and the Jacksonville Jaguars just traded away Nick Foles — a year after handing him a hefty contract — having been sold on the notion that Gardner Minshew is a better bet for the future. Even the Broncos feel they finally have an answer in the form of Drew Lock. 

Only Minshew had a higher PFF grade than Haskins last season, and the three first-rounders plus Minshew all had a grade between 64.2 and 70.3 overall.

Obviously, Haskins did it on fewer snaps, so that grade is inherently more fragile — he had around half the dropbacks that Minshew, Jones and Murray did as rookies — but it’s still curious that the reaction to the performances is so different.

WHY IS THIS THE CASE?

Name	PFF grade	Dropbacks	Big-time throws	Turnover-worthy plays	BTT%	TWP%
Gardner Minshew	70.3	556	18	19	3.6%	3.8%
Dwayne Haskins	67.6	245	8	5	3.7%	2.3%
Daniel Jones	65.7	527	20	31	4.1%	6.3%
Kyler Murray	64.2	620	23	18	4.0%	3.1%

Part of the explanation comes from the rough start Haskins had to his NFL career. He looked poor in training camp, and there were reports that he was struggling to learn the team’s plays, which had been the thing keeping him off the field until Case Keenum was concussed and the switch was forced upon the team.

While Daniel Jones had to fight past Eli Manning to start, Washington had little reason not to turn to Haskins as soon as he was able for it, but they had to be forced into the move. When Haskins did finally first see NFL action, it seemed to be justification for the reluctance to start him in the first place. In just 28 dropbacks across the first two games, he accounted for four of the seven interceptions he threw as a rookie.

At that point, Haskins was fighting the pervasive narrative and fighting an uphill battle to change the story. After his first game, the New York Giants’ Twitter account was calling out draft takes, but Haskins hit the ground with an ugly thump and needed to slowly reverse opinions. The other thing hurting him is that his overall box score numbers from the season look worse than the play-by-play analysis of his game.

He had just seven touchdowns to seven picks, but he actually had fewer turnover-worthy plays than interceptions. Typically, those numbers work in reverse (defenders drop a lot of would-be picks, so the number of interceptions is usually lower than the number of plays that should have been turnovers). Daniel Jones, for example, had 31 turnover-worthy plays compared to just 12 interceptions. Murray had six more, and Minshew had 12 more. Haskins, in fact, was the only rookie passer to end up with more turnovers than turnover-worthy plays, and that skews the narrative.

 

Haskins actually had by far the lowest turnover-worthy play rate (2.3%) of any of those rookie passers. But of course, mistakes are only one part of the story. Avoiding mistakes but rarely making any big plays on the other side consigns a passer to life as a “game manager,” which in today’s league might as well be synonymous with “career backup.” 

Haskins was definitely too conservative at the start of his playing time, and overall, he ended the year with just seven touchdowns and eight big-time throws, but what’s interesting was how he opened up as the season wore on. Indeed, while it had been Terry McLaurin that had been looking like a star all year despite the quarterback play, suddenly he couldn’t haul in a couple of Haskins’ best throws.

Take this play as an example. McLaurin wins on his release one-on-one at the line of scrimmage. This is a green light for any quarterback to put the ball in the air and give his receiver a chance to make the play, and Haskins does exactly that and throws an accurate deep pass to his top receiver. 

While McLaurin had been bailing out his quarterbacks all season long, on this occasion, he lets the ball sail right through his hands, giving Haskins an incompletion on the stat sheet where he should have had a big play. This isn’t to criticize McLaurin outside of this one play but instead serves as a reminder that the quality of the supporting cast is only ever a general guideline when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks. As much as McLaurin helped Haskins on the season, he hurt him on this particular play, and that’s why only the PFF grades can paint an accurate picture.

Overall, all of the rookies actually had remarkably similar big-time throw rates, and while Haskins (3.7%) was marginally behind Jones (4.1%) and Murray (4.0%), it was a far closer thing than just looking at the raw number of touchdowns — a number influenced by receivers, defenders, etc. — would have you believe, thanks to plays precisely like the one above.

Haskins didn’t have the best accuracy numbers from the group (fourth in adjusted completion rate, second to last in advanced ball-location charting accuracy), but he also had the highest average depth of target of the group (9.1 yards) and only Terry McLaurin when it came to reliable receiving options. 

From Week 13 onward, Haskins had an overall PFF grade of 78.0, six points higher than any other rookie (Jones at 72.2). This is a sample size of just 120 dropbacks, so from a statistical standpoint, it is a very unsound way of predicting anything, but it’s a notable data point given the context of uncertainty about Haskins’ ability.

There also seems to be the notion that Haskins just wasn’t that good a prospect to begin with, and so obviously a quarterback like Tua represents an obvious upgrade. I’m not so sure about that. Haskins has arm talent for days, and while there were issues with him as a prospect, talent is clearly there in abundance.

ARM TALENT

When you watch his tape, his arm talent jumps off the page. When he sees the play and lets fly, he has the ability to fit the ball into tight windows, and/or even deliver exceptionally accurate passes with touch. His arm even allows him to be a little late on throws, which happened more than once this season, and it buys him a little breathing room while the game slows down for him in a way some other young passers (Minshew) can’t rely on. 

Take a look at this shot to Chris Thompson against Carolina. The Panthers’ coverage bails into quarters, and the flat has linebacker Shaq Thompsonoccupying it, so Haskins is being faced with a closing window to fit in his pass from the far hash mark.

This is a big-boy NFL throw, the kind they try and simulate in the pre-draft process, because not every quarterback has the arm to get this pass in there. Haskins has it there with room to spare, and this was a feature of his high-end plays this season. He has the kind of arm to make special throws, and the sort of plays that would ordinarily excite fans and analysts alike, but for some reason, they aren’t being talked about nearly enough.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The bottom line is that none of the rookies really did enough to remove all doubt that they will be the future of their franchise for years to come. They all did good things and bad things, and while Haskins certainly did less of both due to his relative lack of playing time, it’s worth noting that when you look at the data points on a per-snap basis, he compares well to the others.

Washington has plenty of holes to fill on their roster, and if Tagovailoa medically checks out and is very much in play at No. 2 overall, they would likely be far better served to trade back and assemble draft picks to build around Haskins than they would be drafting his direct competition. 

Haskins showed plenty of flashes of why he was a first-round pick, and while his transition to the NFL may have been bumpier than that of some of his peers, he had only started in college for a relatively short period of time and is still early on in his development as a quarterback.

While everybody else is eager to imagine a future where he has competition for his job or a camp battle with Tagovailoa on his hands, I’m far more intrigued by imagining a future where the team gives him more than one reliable receiver to target, and we get to see him with another year of development under his belt. 

 

I can't like this post/article enough! And beyond Terry's few drops or slight misses on balls he should have caught the last 6 games Haskins started, let's not forget that Sprinkle also dropped several chain moving catches in games and our beloved Steven Sims also dropped a few balls, one that would have been a huge catch in one game that hit him right in the hands and would’ve gotten them in the red zone in one of their last home games.

I don't know how many drops Haskins had in his starts but I’d guess it was at least a handful the second half of the year - heck Sprinkle may have had a handful of drops himself - and a handful of drops from Terry & Steven Sims combined.

[turtle28]

 

[Skins212689]

16 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

I can't like this post/article enough! And beyond Terry's few drops or slight misses on balls he should have caught the last 6 games Haskins started, let's not forget that Sprinkle also dropped several chain moving catches in games and our beloved Steven Sims also dropped a few balls, one that would have been a huge catch in one game that hit him right in the hands and would’ve gotten them in the red zone in one of their last home games.

I don't know how many drops Haskins had in his starts but I’d guess it was at least a handful the second half of the year - heck Sprinkle may have had a handful of drops himself - and a handful of drops from Terry & Steven Sims combined.

So to these points this is why you cant just say adding Chase Young will gurantee we aren't in position next year to draft Lawrence. Yet this here tells you Haskins weapons still are young and have areas to develop in their game along with him. 

Not saying @turtle28 you are calling for a replacement. Just feeding off your post so other's can understand how other's play a part in Haskins development as well. He needs a upgraded supporting cast and for these guys to continue to get better after 1 year in the NFL before you say he needs to be replaced. 

I'm fine drafting Young but just make sure Your expectation when it comes to Wins are correct if that's the route they take. Adding Young and Fuller as your major Offseason acquisitions doesn't take this team from 3 to 10 wins more like 3 to 6 at most so be prepared people. 

[turtle28]

9 minutes ago, Skins212689 said:

So to these points this is why you cant just say adding Chase Young will gurantee we aren't in position next year to draft Lawrence. Yet this here tells you Haskins weapons still are young and have areas to develop in their game along with him. 

Not saying @turtle28 you are calling for a replacement. Just feeding off your post so other's can understand how other's play a part in Haskins development as well. He needs a upgraded supporting cast and for these guys to continue to get better after 1 year in the NFL before you say he needs to be replaced. 

I'm fine drafting Young but just make sure Your expectation when it comes to Wins are correct if that's the route they take. Adding Young and Fuller as your major Offseason acquisitions doesn't take this team from 3 to 10 wins more like 3 to 6 at most so be prepared people. 

I've been clear on all of this. I'm not engaging in 100 questions for turtle from you which seems to happen every evening and on the same topics.

[Skins212689]

48 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

I've been clear on all of this. I'm not engaging in 100 questions for turtle from you which seems to happen every evening and on the same topics.

I cleary said I'm just adding to your post. If that's a problem please let me know. 

[Skinsin2013]

[naptownskinsfan]

So Allen is serious competition for Haskins, at least according to DeAngelo Hall.  The same DeAngelo Hall who said the Redskins wouldn't fire Bruce Allen and that Trent Williams would be returning in short order.  So take it with a huge grain of salt 

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/redskins/deangelo-hall-unsure-dwayne-haskins-can-be-redskins-starting-qb

[e16bball]

DeAngelo Hall is an idiot. This is the problem with sports talk nowadays — literally 10 seconds of serious thought or some basic knowledge about Haskins’s background would have clued him in to the fact that his take is trash, but he just wanted to shoot from the hip and go with his gut. Give me a brain over the hip and the gut any day. 

Dwayne Haskins had a direct competition with Joe Burrow — the new golden boy of the NFL before he’s even in the NFL — and forced him to transfer out to find some other program that wanted to start him. But yeah, I’m sure he’s incapable of handling competing for a job. I’m sure he won’t respond if challenged. I’m sure he’s quaking in his boots at trying to beat out Kyle Allen, because they traded a 5th round pick for Allen. They traded a 1st round pick for Haskins, you numb nut. 

He didn’t even make the one point that would have held even a drop of water, which is that Allen already generally knows Turner’s system and everyone is going to be way behind the 8 ball in learning and installing due to COVID.