The Smart Organization/Ideal Scenario Offseason (Mock)

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

On December 18, 2019, Martha Firestone Ford released a statement to www.detroitlions.com titled "Open letter to Lions fans". Contained within are numerous statements of context for the 2019 season, as well as support for the Quinn/Patricia regime. In this mock, only one paragraph is changed, changes in bold:

"We also believe that the most successful teams in our league have a long-term plan, stability in leadership and exhibit patience to follow their plan. To that end, we are committed to Coach Patricia. To be clear, our expectation is for GM Quinn and Coach Patricia to do whatever it takes to build this team into a perennial winner. We have no specific expectations for the 2020 season, as we expect them to continue to make the decisions that will turn this team into a Super Bowl champion."

With the long term commitment from Martha Firestone Ford, Quinn and Patricia enter the 2020 off-season in an ideal position to develop this team for the future, not just for 2020. (As my last mock was focused on short term, this mock is my preferred outcome.) 

Off-season/Free Agency

Task #1: Trade Darius Slay ($13.4M 2020 cap hit, holdout risk)

I said it before: I'm a huge fan of Big Play Slay, and I'd much rather keep him. I still think that, with his contract demands, risk of holding out, present trade value and dislike for the regime, now is the time to move him elsewhere. (I believe he's worth a 1st round pick, but his contract demands and holdout history diminish that value.)

*** The Detroit Lions trade Darius Slay to the Atlanta Falcons for a 2020 2nd Round Pick (#47) and Devonta Freeman, RB ($9.5M 2020 cap hit). ***

I'll keep this move. They like Freeman (his time in Atlanta seems to be coming to an end), and he seems to be a good compliment to Kerryon Johnson. He should help this offense quite a bit. Bo Scarbrough remains on the roster as the #3 RB.

Task #2: Re-sign Taylor Decker (short term, $6M per) and Graham Glasgow (long term, $7M per)

Kept from the prior mock. That summary: In my opinion, it's imperative that we lock Glasgow down with a quality 5 year contract. Graham has been nothing short of an effective, hard-working and versatile commodity since arriving in Detroit in 2016, and he finally receives a contract that reflects his value to the team. Decker has had far more ups and downs during his time in Detroit, but the team does not want to enter 2020 with three holes to fill up front. He signs a short term deal, which frees up cap from the 5th year option, and leaves him eager to prove that he's deserving of higher tier OT money.

Task #3: Release Rick Wagner ($6.1M cap savings)

Kept from the prior mock. I think this is a foregone conclusion. That summary: Although a decent player, it's clear that Wagner never lived up to the girthy contract he signed in 2017. The Lions make a statement thanking him for his years of hard work before sending him off. Tyrell Crosby ($731k 2020 cap hit) slides over to RT.

Task #4: Sign Jack Conklin, OT (five year, $50M contract)

The contract matches the length and overall value of the extension signed by La'el Collins. A slight overpay, it gives this franchise a strong, young offensive line for years to come.

Task #5: Sign Vic Beasley, DE (two year, $12M contract with incentives)

Another FA overpay, it gives Patricia a player capable of generating pressure. Beasley chooses the Lions due to the likelihood that he'll be able to step in right away and contribute.

Task #6: Sign Logan Ryan, CB (three year, $27M contract, front-loaded)

I don't love this one. Ryan is essentially handed a starting job in Detroit, and Patricia loves his ability to create pressure. (Another Patriot link for good measure.) Although expensive, it's significantly cheaper than Slay, and is structured to allow the Lions to move on after two years.

Task #7: Re-sign Danny Amendola (one year, $4.25M)

I expect this to happen. Not really groundbreaking.

Other re-signings of note: A'Shawn Robinson, Rashaan Melvin, Sam Martin, Logan Thomas, Mike Ford, and, of course, Don Freakin' Muhlbach. (If Damon Harrison retires, the team would likely sign a mid-tier DT.)

2020 NFL Draft

Pick 1.3: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

If we're taking the best approach for this franchise moving forward, Tua should be the pick. (This is assuming Young is taken 2nd overall.) I'm a huge fan of Stafford, and this pick is not a knock on his ability: his age (32 at the start of 2020 season) and back concerns justify grabbing our next franchise QB. It's a perfect scenario for Tua, as he'll have plenty of time to fully recover and learn from a great NFL QB. I'd expect Tua to be ready to take over somewhere around 2022.

Pick 2.3: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

This is an incredibly deep WR class, and Jefferson (assuming the best WR available at this point) manages to slip out of the first round. Marvin Jones, although still productive, may not be on the roster past 2020, and this decision allows Stafford/Tua to keep a great WR duo with $9M of Marvin Jones cap relief in 2021.

Pick 2.15: Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford

I wasn't aiming to draft a CB with the pick acquired from Slay, yet here we are. Adebo appears to have the size that Quinn/Patricia prefer at the position and the upside to develop into a very good NFL CB. The position clearly isn't a strength, but Adebo and Oruwarlye provide plenty of upside.

Pick 3.3: Ben Bredeson, OG, Michigan

The Lions return to the offensive side of the ball with their third round pick. Bredeson joins Ragnow and Glasgow on the offensive line, giving this team a strong interior with tons of upside. This offensive line may be the best line we've had in a long time. (Admittedly, this isn't saying much.)

Picks in rounds 4-7: BPA, with an emphasis on a developmental rush DE, OLB, DT and S.

2020 Depth Chart

WR: Kenny Golladay, Chris Lacy
TE: Logan Thomas
LT: Taylor Decker
LG: Ben Bredeson, Oday Aboushi
C: Frank Ragnow, Beau Benzschawel
RG: Graham Glasgow
RT: Jack Conklin, Tyrell Crosby
TE: T.J. Hockenson, Jesse James
SWR: Danny Amendola
WR: Marvin Jones, Justin Jefferson 
QB: Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa
RB: Devonta Freeman, Kerryon Johnson, Bo Scarbrough

DE: Trey Flowers, Austin Bryant
DT: Damon Harrison Sr, Da'Shawn Hand
DT: A'Shawn Robinson, John Atkins, *Rookie*
DE: Vic Beasley, Romeo Okwara, *Rookie*
OLB: Devon Kennard, Christian Jones
MLB: Jahlani Tavai, Steve Longa
OLB: Jarrad Davis, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, *Rookie*
CB: Rashaan Melvin, Amani Oruwarlye
CB: Logan Ryan, Justin Coleman, Paulson Adebo
SS: Will Harris, Tavon Wilson
FS: Tracy Walker, *Rookie*

K: Matt Prater
P: Sam Martin
LS: Don F' Muhlbach
KR/PR: Jamal Agnew

I don't expect Beasley to make a huge impact, and I could see the lack of pressure continue to hold this team back. That being said, the roster is able to compete throughout the year and finishes in the 7-9 win range. With Tua waiting in the wings, a great offensive line, borderline elite offensive weapons and young players on defense, the future of this franchise is incredibly bright.

Edited January 8, 2020 by TL-TwoWinsAway

[Sandman9]

Smart owner is the problem with this strategy. Win now? Or else fire the coach and GM? What a joke. 

[LionArkie]

I like the overall strategy.  I like upgrading the OT position and think that is the biggest priority for the offense.  I like pick 2.15 and 3.3.  I agree a QB would build long term success and this would be the year to do it, I just don't know if I like any of the options in the draft for the top 10 picks.

For me, Tua scares the hell out of me. I have no reason other than a gut feeling he isn't going to cut it.  I think most Alabama QB's benefit from those Alabama teams and don't end up panning out.  They look a lot better than what they are, but that's my pessimistic side.
Do you think Decker is a quality LT to propel this team forward?  I kind of like to think of him being moved to RT in lieu of the Conklin signing where I think he would be very good.
I don't like WR in rd 2.  I would really like the interior on both sides to be shored up/built to be dominant.  I would prefer bpa at any D position for both picks.

All and all I don't hate it.  I'd just be a nervous nelly with those two offensive picks.

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

11 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

I like the overall strategy.  I like upgrading the OT position and think that is the biggest priority for the offense.  I like pick 2.15 and 3.3.  I agree a QB would build long term success and this would be the year to do it, I just don't know if I like any of the options in the draft for the top 10 picks.

For me, Tua scares the hell out of me. I have no reason other than a gut feeling he isn't going to cut it.  I think most Alabama QB's benefit from those Alabama teams and don't end up panning out.  They look a lot better than what they are, but that's my pessimistic side.
Do you think Decker is a quality LT to propel this team forward?  I kind of like to think of him being moved to RT in lieu of the Conklin signing where I think he would be very good.
I don't like WR in rd 2.  I would really like the interior on both sides to be shored up/built to be dominant.  I would prefer bpa at any D position for both picks.

All and all I don't hate it.  I'd just be a nervous nelly with those two offensive picks.

I see it completely. I do think it's somewhat of a risky approach. If Tua pans out, some feel that he's a franchise-changing player.

One thing to note: Conklin essentially becomes the blindsided OT with Tua at QB, which was part of my desire to lock him up. I think you're right: it benefits Decker as well.

[flyguy1609]

I don’t mind the slay trade(although think he should say)  I’m kinda talking myself out of wanting anything to do with tua(not his fault) I know qb play was brutal last yr without stafford and we have to also plan for when he retires but I think jalan hurts/ Jake Fromm could be “Andy dalton/ Goff” types of qbs. You can get them later in the draft trade down from 3 get future assets to help the team in the long run. 

[Sllim Pickens]

The biggest problem I have with this is the D is pretty much unchanged.  I know the initial concept was long term with Tua but there has to be some additions to the front 7 on D IMO.  As you said, Beasley likely won't have a huge impact.  We need pressure, we need LBs that can cover, we need interior lineman with Daniels and Snacks likely gone.  I would be real sad if we go into next year with the same D.  I'd swap out both 2nd rounders for front 7 players.  I feel we can find a solid WR in reds 4-7 and another CB with upside there as well.  If you draft something like Terrell Lewis and Neville Gallimore with those seconds, this team could compete now with that O line and upgraded D.  

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

6 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

The biggest problem I have with this is the D is pretty much unchanged.  I know the initial concept was long term with Tua but there has to be some additions to the front 7 on D IMO.  As you said, Beasley likely won't have a huge impact.  We need pressure, we need LBs that can cover, we need interior lineman with Daniels and Snacks likely gone.  I would be real sad if we go into next year with the same D.  I'd swap out both 2nd rounders for front 7 players.  I feel we can find a solid WR in reds 4-7 and another CB with upside there as well.  If you draft something like Terrell Lewis and Neville Gallimore with those seconds, this team could compete now with that O line and upgraded D.  

I can see it. From a short term perspective, adding pieces to the defense would be nice. Long term, landing a 1st round WR to give us a seamless transition to the post-Marvin Jones era is huge for the future of this team. When Tua is ready to take over, Golladay is in his prime and Jefferson is a stud, with that offensive line and Hockenson at TE. This offense would be elite for years to come, with a few years of early draft picks to spend on the defensive side of the ball.

[Sllim Pickens]

49 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

I can see it. From a short term perspective, adding pieces to the defense would be nice. Long term, landing a 1st round WR to give us a seamless transition to the post-Marvin Jones era is huge for the future of this team. When Tua is ready to take over, Golladay is in his prime and Jefferson is a stud, with that offensive line and Hockenson at TE. This offense would be elite for years to come, with a few years of early draft picks to spend on the defensive side of the ball.

I still just don’t think the offense is the problem. I want to upgrade the right side of the line but that’s about it on offense right now.  I know there is a long term thought process here but similar to my thoughts in the fantasy mock thread, why waste a year?  We can find a replacement for Marvin when he is officially gone.  Until then, Amendola, Hall, and maybe a late round pick will be more than sufficient.  Then grab a WR in the first next year when we are picking later in the first.  

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

1 minute ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I still just don’t think the offense is the problem. I want to upgrade the right side of the line but that’s about it on offense right now.  I know there is a long term thought process here but similar to my thoughts in the fantasy mock thread, why waste a year?  We can find a replacement for Marvin when he is officially gone.  Until then, Amendola, Hall, and maybe a late round pick will be more than sufficient.  Then grab a WR in the first next year when we are picking later in the first.  

I mean, I really don't disagree. The defense is absolutely the greater concern, and we could likely find a quality WR next year. In this instance, with the depth and quality at WR, we can essentially land a 1st round WR in the 2nd round. Not having any sort of difficulty transitioning to post-Marvin, and building a dominant offense for Tua to take over, was the goal.

(I do think it's interesting: when I took an edge rusher in the late 1st round in my other mock, some (not you) argued that their impact in year 1 would be minimal, as they need time to develop. Now, I didn't make decisions in this mock based on that feedback, but it's interesting how opinions differ.)

[LionArkie]

21 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

(I do think it's interesting: when I took an edge rusher in the late 1st round in my other mock, some (not you) argued that their impact in year 1 would be minimal, as they need time to develop. Now, I didn't make decisions in this mock based on that feedback, but it's interesting how opinions differ.)

I'm one who thinks in most situations a DE would have minimal impact in year 1.  I also, believe a WR will also have little impact in year 1.  Once again, in most cases, there are always exceptions.  I think there are very few positions that have immediate year 1 impact for the entirety of the season.  So for a long term plan, I would value a QB as the ultimate position for long term success, followed by either LT, or DE, then interior on both sides, then middle defense, db, wr, TE, Rb. This would be my order for building a team long term and especially positions in the first round.  This is why I have issues with first round TE.  Unless you are set at the other positions, or the TE is so much more talented than anything else out there, you go with the other positions.  Obviously, if you have a once in a generation athlete at a position such as rb, then you go for it.  So, I think a short term plan will have to work more through FA than the draft.  I believe you use the draft for long term and FA for short term.

But really, you addressed the qb, the Tackels in FA, and prepared for moving on with Marvin Jones.  It's hard to argue with, I just prefer first 3 rounds to be interior OL or defensive front 7 like sllim said.  For me, its just a matter of preference. Overall, the team you built is better than what it was last year.

Edited January 9, 2020 by LionArkie