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TL-TwoWinsAway

The Quinn Drafts - 2016-2018

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I've read lots of negativity towards Quinn over the past few weeks, with it criticism towards his draft hits and misses. Looking back, I think there's a discussion to be had whether his draft decisions were actually poor choices. (It's clearly too early to look at the 2019 draft, so only drafts 2016-2018 are listed.)

I think it's also important to view the picks in a reasonable way. If one expects all 7th round picks to hit, they're going to feel that nearly all NFL GMs are awful, as this rarely happens. In my opinion, a pick is not a bust if it at least reaches the following standard: Top 10 picks - good players; 1st and 2nd round picks - solid starters; 3rd round picks - developing into starters/contributors; 4th round picks - on roster/contributors; 5th round picks - on roster; 6th and 7th round picks - cannot bust. (Bold: reaches this standard.)

2016 NFL Draft

1 (16) - Taylor Decker

2 (46) - A'Shawn Robinson

3 (95) - Graham Glasgow

4 (111) - Miles Killebrew

5 (151) - Joe Dahl

5 (169) - Antwione Williams

6 (191) - Jake Rudock

6 (202) - Anthony Zettel

6 (210) - Jimmy Landes

7 (236) - Dwayne Washington

2017 NFL Draft

1 (21) - Jarrad Davis

2 (53) - Teez Tabor

3 (96) - Kenny Golladay

4 (124) - Jalen Reeves-Maybin

4 (127) - Michael Roberts

5 (165) - Jamal Agnew

6 (205) - Jeremiah Ledbetter

6 (215) - Brad Kaaya

7 (250) - Pat O'Connor

2018 NFL Draft

1 (20) - Frank Ragnow

2 (43) - Kerryon Johnson

3 (82) - Tracy Walker

4 (114) - Da'Shawn Hand

5 (153) - Tyrell Crosby

7 (237) - Nick Bawden

Now, I imagine that my standard for "busting" will be a point of discussion, and that's fine, but Quinn's number of busts is actually pretty low: Teez Tabor is the poster boy for busting (and players like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Alvin Kamara and Cooper Kupp were taken closely after) and Michael Roberts was an unfortunate miss. Other than that, and as far as the draft, where has Quinn gone wrong?

Edited by TL-TwoWinsAway

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I dont agree with the standards you set.

Top 10 pick should be a great player and 1st to 2nd rounders should be good.

I dont think Quinn has been bad but I do think Davis has been a bust this far, and Decker has been rather meh.

Kerryon cant stay healthy so it's fair to question that pick as well since I believe there were durability concerns when we took him.

I agree with everything else.

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Eh. I don't think a decent starting 2nd round pick is a bust. If you land a starter in the 2nd, I feel that it's not a waste of a pick.

I don't agree about Davis, and I think it's a good example of this. If he were taken in the top 10, it would be a disappointing pick (and a bust), but, at 21, I think he's narrowly above that bust mark.

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While I agree that his drafting hasn't been horrible, my issue is not so much who he has drafted but who was also available and positional value when draft selections were made. I'd probably grade Quinn as a solid drafter, and I do think he has a vision for what types of players (off field guys as well) he's trying to build around. But I do think he's deserving of criticism as long as there is reasoning behind the criticism.

Edited by Louis Friend
grammar

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4 minutes ago, Louis Friend said:

While I agree that his drafting hasn't been horrible, my issue is not so much who he has drafted but who was also available and positional value when draft selections were made. I'd probably grade Quinn as a solid drafter, and I do think he has a vision for what types of players (off field guys as well) he's trying to build around. But I do think he's deserving of criticism as long as thee is reasoning behind the criticism.

Absolutely. I agree; I have nothing against criticism. I've just heard so much negativity lately. Looking over the drafts, I didn't see it.

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19 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Eh. I don't think a decent starting 2nd round pick is a bust. If you land a starter in the 2nd, I feel that it's not a waste of a pick.

I don't agree about Davis, and I think it's a good example of this. If he were taken in the top 10, it would be a disappointing pick (and a bust), but, at 21, I think he's narrowly above that bust mark.

Theres an awfully big grey area between good and bust. You dont think so??

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Just now, detroitroar said:

Theres an awfully big grey area between good and bust. You dont think so??

I'd say the area between "good" and "bust" is pretty big.

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I think Davis has played because of where he was drafted, and already used a 2nd round pick to upgrade him just two years later.  I would think at best he would find a back up job elsewhere in the league and likely will be out of the league in a couple years.  He is graded as one of the worst starting LBs every year.  
 

Decker has been solid, but we are questioning wether we should renew his contract after his rookie deal.  That’s a bust IMO as a 1st round pick should be good enough to know you want them back. He is a solid player, I was ok with the pick at the time but it hasn’t worked out.  
 

The 2017 draft as a whole you were very generous with.  Golladay is great, but that’s really the only decent pick.  I get that Agnew has been a decent returner but returner value is so little right now.  The rest of that draft is out of the league.  
 

2018 was a solid draft.  I like the Kerryon pick at the time and still see the reason for the pick but looks like the injuries should have been a bigger concern.  
 

last years draft I know you didn’t include, but I don’t feel good about that either.  I think TJ will be ok but again, positional value wasn’t there.  The rest looked lost other than Oruwarye looked promising down the stretch.  Will have to give them time but I won’t hold my breath. 

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3 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

I'd say the area between "good" and "bust" is pretty big.

 

3 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

I'd say the area between "good" and "bust" is pretty big.

So what in the world was the point of your first paragraph?

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I think Quinn is a solid drafter.  I think Decker pick is an interesting one.  He's ok at LT, but probably a better RT.  If we had a solid LT, I think his value becomes much better.  I just don't ever know if Quinn will take a big swing at someone, or if he'll also always play it safe.  Furthermore, I don't know if taking a big swing is worth it in the long run.  You'll probably get burnt more than you win.

Edited by LionArkie

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Also, I'm not sure where I am on Kerryon Johnson.  I'd agree, when healthy he's a good pick.  However, he was known to have injury history when drafted.  Does that make him a good pick up?  I think that could be debatable either way. He reminds me a little bit of the jhavid best draft pick.

I don't know who I would have picked in the second that I'd rather have looking back on the draft.  At the time, I probably would have preferred Guice, but he's been injured too.  He didn't have the history of injuries though. So, admittedly, Quinn would have done better than me.

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I’m not certain there’s an effective way to measure Quinn’s drafts.

The players being on the roster isn’t an effective measure in my view.

Certainly it’s easier to draft players to a roster when competence is low.

The Lions Win Loss record can’t be ignored when assessing his drafts.

They've failed to draft the right players to effectively satisfy the stated objective of running the ball.

I find it hard to give Quinn much credit. His drafting has taken the Lions from 9 wins to three wins. Obviously there are other factors but I won’t overlook results when assessing his drafts.

The amount of players you have indicated as good picks doesn’t mesh with on field results. You indicated 22/25 players as good picks.

That evaluation simply doesn’t mesh with the wins achieved by the franchise especially given the Lions regression.
 

 

 

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15 hours ago, Nnivolcm said:

Have you used this scale on other GMs? How do they compare?

I've already used it on one roster. By all means, give it a shot with another and we can compare.

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3 hours ago, diehardlionfan said:

I’m not certain there’s an effective way to measure Quinn’s drafts.

The players being on the roster isn’t an effective measure in my view.

Certainly it’s easier to draft players to a roster when competence is low.

The Lions Win Loss record can’t be ignored when assessing his drafts.

They've failed to draft the right players to effectively satisfy the stated objective of running the ball.

I find it hard to give Quinn much credit. His drafting has taken the Lions from 9 wins to three wins. Obviously there are other factors but I won’t overlook results when assessing his drafts.

The amount of players you have indicated as good picks doesn’t mesh with on field results. You indicated 22/25 players as good picks.

That evaluation simply doesn’t mesh with the wins achieved by the franchise especially given the Lions regression.

I don't quite feel that wins are a direct result of draft success. As we saw in 2019, one injury can take a team from competitive to the third worst team in the NFL. At the same time, every team that competes for a Super Bowl doesn't necessarily have A+ drafts during the previous few years. It's possible (even probable) that their roster is/was strong absent those drafts.

We only won three games in 2019, yet we all know that Golladay is a very good player, and a great pick in round 3. Winning a bunch of games wouldn't suddenly make Teez Tabor a decent pick.

I feel that we can (and should) evaluate players based on their own play and not on the team's success.

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