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The Oscars

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On 1/13/2020 at 11:46 AM, animaltested said:

Ford Vs Ferrari getting a BP nom but nothing else is awful. No business being there, especially over the The Farewell. They do this every year, awarding a tentpole, legacy picture with huge names attached that nobody saw or enjoyed that much a nom. The Academy's whole makeover is pure lip service at this point. Its still old dudes who only watch major productions voting for the same films every year. 

For the Actor Categories, Im pulling for Driver and Pitt... I guess. Not really strong crop IMO. Also, where is Dafoe from Lighthouse? Would have been nice to have him instead of the walking corpses clogging up the Supporting category. Like seriously, Hopkins and Pryce were fine, but nothing about the Two Popes was spectacular. DeNero and Pesci are literally playing the same dudes they have their entire career. 

I thought Ford v Ferrari was one of the better films this year. I get what you're saying but I think that logic applies more to the actors who you said were playing the same people they have always portrayed.

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21 hours ago, DoleINGout said:

I thought Ford v Ferrari was one of the better films this year. I get what you're saying but I think that logic applies more to the actors who you said were playing the same people they have always portrayed.

Same, I can't believe it didn't pull in the box office numbers, it was a great movie. I guess racing movies aren't "in".

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Are all 4 acting awards locks? Like I don’t think I’ve seen all 4 sweep basically everything that matters and all be huge betting favourites like this. 

Which category is most likely to have an upset if any? 

I’m still seeing Once upon a time in Hollywood as the betting “favourite” to win best pic. Why is that? It seems to me like 1917 should have that honour. Parasite is like +360 and a somewhat distant third. The odds suggest it’s basically a two movie race with Hollywood being a slight favourite while Parasite would be the only other movie to possibly pull an upset and win without it being fan absolute shock. 

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Olivia Coleman beating out Glenn Close was a surprise last year but I feel there were some indicators to suggest that where as I’ve seen no indication of let’s say ScarJo beating our Zellweger. 

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I'm a tad surprised that Joaquin is sweeping in all the lead up. Thought Driver might split it somewhere. 

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14 hours ago, kyle21121 said:

Are all 4 acting awards locks? Like I don’t think I’ve seen all 4 sweep basically everything that matters and all be huge betting favourites like this. 

I think Joaquin and Pitt are locks, mostly because the Academy seems to be obsessed with Joker (or atleast the idea of it, so they look more hip than when they did this with Green Book last year) and the Supporting category isnt all that strong, as I think Pesci is the only one that could challenge, but he wil split with Paccino.

And Dern is also likely a lock, but the surprising nom for Scarlett gives me pause. I would say Robbie had a shot if she had been nominated for the correct film.

But I think Best Actress is more open than many are drawing it up to be. Im sorry, Zellweger is not deserving, but for some reason months ago evey pundit just all agreed that she shouold get it, and no one else is really running. I dont think there is any other specific nominee that shouold be running away with it, but I could see this is where the Academy gives Marriage Story some shine, but she could also split the vote with herself in Supporting. Honestly, this should be the closest race if people were being honest with themselves, and not just checking the box everyone is telling them to.

14 hours ago, kyle21121 said:

I’m still seeing Once upon a time in Hollywood as the betting “favourite” to win best pic. Why is that? It seems to me like 1917 should have that honour. Parasite is like +360 and a somewhat distant third.

1917 was such a film achievement, but I dont know if it was the best picture. Yes, many times those "gimmick" films (and that is not a derogatory moniker here, its just a fact) win, but I think preferential balloting is going to hurt it, and really help Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Wouldnt be upset in the least if Parasite were to win, but as far as we have come in the past few years with Roma and Parasite even being nominated, Im not sure we are quite there yet. I think Marriage Story and The Irishman being Netflix movies still have a stigma to them for alot of voters (which they need to get over) and i dont think that Jojo, Little Women or FvF were ever real contenders. Its just this fascination they seem to have with Joker that i would be worried about

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Its just this fascination they seem to have with Joker that i would be worried about

They have a fascination with the Joker because its a tremendous movie. If your judging movies on how long you thought about them after a watch, which is a great way to judge how a movie has affected you, than there isnt a single film that comes close to Joker IMO. Parasite would be a distant second. 

I know the above isnt the end all of how a movie is picked, its supposed to be the top-to-bottom production of said movie (In which case, Once Upon a Time is the clear cut favorite). But there was something contemplative and nearly esoteric about Joker that really makes it a special film IMO. 

Then again, what do I know lol

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59 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

They have a fascination with the Joker because its a tremendous movie.

I am not saying Joker isnt a good movie, I quite enjoyed it, I even agree that it should be nominated for best picture this year. But the praise these nominations give make it seem like it is one of the greatest films of All Time, and that would just not be true. 11 nominations? Just dont think it deserved all of those. But the fact that we have so much bunched at the top (Joker, Once Upon a Time, 1917, The Irishmen) show me that the Academy has just turned into a follow the leader. No one is thinking for themselves, and they gravitated to this heavily styled, King of Comedy/Taxi Driver/Scorsese cosplay film that they can pretend is also a "Super Hero" film (even though other than the name that was likely forced onto Phillips by the studio and like 2 scenes that dont really fit with the rest of the movie there is nothing Super Hero or even really Comic Book about it), and tout to the masses as "were hip, were cool". I mean they might as well just put up the Buscemi "how do you do fellow kids" clip if Joker wins more than 2 or 3 awards

Im glad you connected with Joker, that it made you think, thats what good movies do, but not everyone had your reaction, infact many had the complete opposite. I fall somewhere in the middle, but that type of massive split, and so heavily on either side, is hardto say this is easily the best of the year. But to say nothing else came close to that? Maybe not the same emotion, maybe not the same thoughts, but Parasite, Marriage Story, Little Women, OUATIH, The Farewell, Us and even Uncut Gems, Knives Out and Hustlers all impact you emotionally in their own ways. Joker is not alone in that, and I could easily argue not even one of the 3 or 4 best at doing it. 

This kind of maneuver, along with the predictability of them falling over themselves for 1917, The Irishmen and OUATIH makes it look more like a stunt to make everyone watch the show, and an attempt to seem like they are changing, when they are clearly stuck in their ways.

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Tin foil hat for a second, but one thing overlooked about 1917 is that is the only British movie in the race. The perception of British academy voters is them being very nationalistic, so you can assume that most of the British voting block will throw their lot in with that film. 

Also, its one of those movies (Like Green Book, Kings Speech, the Artist, Argo, Shape of Water) that's going to be 2nd to 4th on everyone's list. Parasite and JoJo will be left off a lot of lists (assuming most of the old farts wont watch them), Irishmen and Marriage Story could get split a lot (top and bottom) due to Netflix bias. Leaves Joker, FvF, LW and 1917 as the middling's (a great spot to be in). Joker seems to be a love it, hate it movie, so you can probably scratch that one off. The Academy is mostly dudes, so LW wont get much consideration. Plus, older votes might hold previous versions in much higher regard.

Using this method, its seems like its going to come down to FvF, & 1917, with 1917 getting the British bump.

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1 hour ago, animaltested said:

Using this method, its seems like its going to come down to FvF, & 1917, with 1917 getting the British bump.

A) you completely left the front runner out of your equation

B) FvF isnt a legitimate contender

 

Again, Preferential Balloting will likely help Once Upon a Time in Hollywood more than it will 1917. Because OUATIH will be Top 3 in just about every ballot. While some will have 1917 at the top, more will have it in the 3-6 range than they would with Hollywood

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7 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

A) you completely left the front runner out of your equation

B) FvF isnt a legitimate contender

 

Again, Preferential Balloting will likely help Once Upon a Time in Hollywood more than it will 1917. Because OUATIH will be Top 3 in just about every ballot. While some will have 1917 at the top, more will have it in the 3-6 range than they would with Hollywood

I did completely forget Hollywood. Still don't think its the favorite, and might not even be a middling. Seems like the Academy pegs Tarentino as the screenwriter, but nothing beyond that. Maybe it changes this year since the movie is a love letter to the golden age of Hollywood. I shouldn't ignore that theme TBH.

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Awards are this Sunday, so Ill bump this with my picks:

Best Picture:

My Guess : 1917

My Choice: Parasite

 

Best Director

My Guess : Sam Mendes

My Choice: Bong Joon-Ho

 

Best Actor

My Guess : Joaquin Phoenix

My Choice : Adam Driver

 

Best Actress

My Guess : Renee Zellwiger

My Choice : Scarlett Johansson

 

Best Supporting Actor

My Guess : Brad Pitt

My Choice : Brad Pitt

 

Best Supporting Actress

My Guess : Laura Dern

My Choice : Florence Pugh

 

Best Original Screenplay

My Guess : Once Upon a Time In Hollywood

My Choice : Parasite

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Guess : JoJo Rabbit

My Pick : JoJo Rabbit

 

 

Edited by animaltested

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Never underestimate Hollywood's ability to fall in love with a story about Hollywood.    I'd be surprised if Hollywood didn't go for OUATIH.

Parasite is a shoo-in for best Foreign film, so at least it won't get shut out, when I think it's been the most innovative, thought-provoking and just well-made movie around this year.   I'd be happy if it won for Best Original Screenplay, even if it's a total longshot for Movie I think a case can be made for screenplay that can ovecome the Hollywood momentum.   In the same vein, I suspect Phoenix getting the nod for his performance in Joker will likely be enough for voters to move away from there in Best Picture.   Just my hunches there...

Edited by Broncofan

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