ragingraider Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 This draft features guys like Brandon Aiyuk and Tyler Johnson who aren't gonna be 1st rounders, but our excellent WR1 prospects. There are definitely guys like Lavinska and Higgins who are late 1st early second round prospects. Justin Jefferson is probably a second round guy. There are more options, given the depth at WR the value might not be there to take a WR at the top of the first round. I happen to believe Carr has a throwing it deep problem. So, would Ruggs really be the best fit with Carr's skill set? Perhaps Laviska and his ability to run after the catch would mesh with Carr better. Laviska can run go routes, but he is a great bubble screen guy. Aiyuk and Tyler run all the inside stuff. Did Ruggs benefit from being surrounded by 1st round talent and never being doubled? IDK. It's possible that he was hamstrung by his surroundings as there weren't enough balls to go around. It is worth remembering though that he was the 3rd most productive receiver on the Crimson Tide. Cee Dee Lamb is more impressive to me as he was the main man on the Sooners, and everyone knew it. He still performed, and he had a new QB who wasn't thought of as a prolific passer. I see a lot of Ruggs talk. He is a great prospect, and I'm sure his 40 time will be wonderful. But, he hasn't been that productive. A WR1 should be your go to guy. Ruggs has never been the go to guy. Below are some top prospects and there production. Ruggs has never broken 50 catches or 800 yards in a season. He is not used as a runner or returner very often. Ruggs has never had a 1,000 yard season and has had 40 or so catches in each of the last two years. He had 11 TD's in 2018, but that number fell to 7 TD's this past year with 1 TD rushing. He surprisingly doesn't have much in terms of rushing yards which you might think, given his great speed, would have been part of the way he was used. It wasn't. 19 TD's over the last two seasons. Ceedee lamb has gone well over a thousand yards each of the last two seasons with 60 plus receptions and twice the number of TD's as Ruggs (14) this year. All while getting the lion's share of the attention from opposing defenses. 25 TD's over the last two years. Jerry Jeudy went over a thousand yards for the last two seasons and caught over 70 passes this past season. He also has significantly more TD's than Ruggs. 24 td's over the past two seasons Tee Higgins went over a thousand yards this season and came very close in 2018. He has nearly 60 catches in each of the past two seasons and has scored 25 TD's over the past two years. Brandon Aiyuk went over a thousand yards with over 60 catches this year. He also was a special teams stand out with 1 TD and a 97 yard return. He had 8 receiving TD's this season, which was his first as a focal point of the offense. The last two seasons he has 12 TD's combined. Tyler Johnson has over a thousand yards the past two seasons. He has over 80 catches this last year and over 70 in 2018. He scored 13 TD's this season. 25TD's over the last two years. Lavinska Shenault went over a thousand yards in 2018 with over 80 receptions. He had 6 receiving TD's and added 5 on the ground. He battled injury in 2019, but still caught 56 balls and added 6Td's combined. 17 TD's over last two seasons. He had nearly 300 yards rushing over the past two seasons with a nearly 7 yard average. Justin Jefferson has over 100 catches this season! over 1,400 yards! and 18 TD's! Clearly a standout season, he had over 50 catches in 2018 with 6 TD's and 875 yards which was his first as a starter. 24 TD's over the last two seasons. Jalen Reagor went over a thousand yards in 2018 with over 70 receptions. Scored 9 TD's receiving and 2 TD's rushing. 2019 caught just over 40 passes for 5TD's and 2TD's as a punt returner. 18 TD's over the last two seasons. Michael Pittman Jr. had over a 100 catches in 2019! Over 1000 yards, and 11 receiving TD's. A significant increase from 2018 when he had just over 40 catches with 6 TD's. 17 TD's over the last two seasons. Based on stats and productivity over the past two seasons the WR ranking would look like this- Tyler Johnson Jerry Jeudy Ceedee Lamb Tee Higgins Justin Jefferson Michael Pittman Jr. Laviska Shenault Jalen Reagor Henry Ruggs Brandon Aiyuk (Brandon had more receptions and yards but I gave it to Ruggs for tds's.) If you did this just for last season, Ruggs would be just above Reagor, but below everyone else. Perhaps, it makes sense to look at a Tyler Johnson in round 2 as our WR1 if Lamb or Jeudy is gone. I don't think Ruggs is their equal as a prospect. His main selling point is speed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfrey13 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I think you are missing skill translation. Stats are a good measure of there ability to use their physical traits but should not e the only comparison just as the combine should not be the only comparison. You also have trajectory and individual circumstances. Some payers may have just started getting comfortable with their bodies. You have to remember that some of them have late growth spurts or have just taken longer to develop athletically after growing into their bodies. Some of these guys are still teenagers. Some may have had lesser stats because they finally became the #1 option this year or in Ruggs case he was not even the #1 this year and some games was the #3 option. In Jefferson's case his numbers are huge but he was also playing with an NFL ready #1 choice in this years draft. I prefer to watch games and trust my eyes over everything else but never ignore everything else. That is also why NFL decision makers will watch tape before the combine and go back and watch the tape again after the combine. Tyler Johnson could end up being the best WR in this class but his physical traits are probably signs he will not be a #1 and will be a possession WR. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Love Lamb and Jeudy but the height/weight ratio does worry me at the next level. Ruggs has a better ratio and looks to have a solid build then add the speed. Ruggs is 19 while the other two are 12. If we draft Defense 12/19 then I want two WR's at 80/81 but all the value might have been taken so a trade up is probably needed. Every Fanspeak I've done passing a WR in the first has not made me feel confident with the talent later as much as a developmental guy. Rookie WR's usually don't stud out their rookie season. 800 yards is what I'd expect and then an increase every season after. We need two rookies so Ruggs and a bigger 'stat' guy in the 3rd would be ideal to me. Trading down a bunch and getting 2 of the other guys you mention in the 2nd wouldn't be a problem either. Lots of depth at WR and lots of ammo so lots of possibilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oakdb36 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I'm hoping for Tee Higgins at 19 but i think he ends up going higher. Probably depends how fast he runs at the combine and/or if he goes off tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bitty 2.0 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 It has to be Lavinska Shenault. It’s not that the other WRs aren’t great he just fits our system and QB better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrOaktown_56 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 52 minutes ago, Bitty 2.0 said: It has to be Lavinska Shenault. It’s not that the other WRs aren’t great he just fits our system and QB better. I think all these 1st round receivers have yac ability though. Shenault is nice but raw. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geezy Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 9 hours ago, oakdb36 said: I'm hoping for Tee Higgins at 19 but i think he ends up going higher. Probably depends how fast he runs at the combine and/or if he goes off tonight. If he runs 4.4 he can creep into top 3 WR, this class is ridiculous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragingraider Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 15 hours ago, drfrey13 said: I think you are missing skill translation. Stats are a good measure of there ability to use their physical traits but should not e the only comparison just as the combine should not be the only comparison. You also have trajectory and individual circumstances. Some payers may have just started getting comfortable with their bodies. You have to remember that some of them have late growth spurts or have just taken longer to develop athletically after growing into their bodies. Some of these guys are still teenagers. Some may have had lesser stats because they finally became the #1 option this year or in Ruggs case he was not even the #1 this year and some games was the #3 option. In Jefferson's case his numbers are huge but he was also playing with an NFL ready #1 choice in this years draft. I prefer to watch games and trust my eyes over everything else but never ignore everything else. That is also why NFL decision makers will watch tape before the combine and go back and watch the tape again after the combine. Tyler Johnson could end up being the best WR in this class but his physical traits are probably signs he will not be a #1 and will be a possession WR. I think you make good points, but Lamarr Chase also had a monster year opposite Jefferson. Tua isn't chopped liver so Ruggs has had a top QB throwing the ball as opposed to other on the list. I agree that skills translate and develop. A players college career isn't always totally predictive of NFL success. But, based on what we have seen, why expect Ruggs to be a guy he hasn't been. His speed is not enough for me. I want to see more from him to take him in the first over guys who have out produced him in college and shown a more consistent product on tape. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragingraider Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 My option would be defense 12 and trade back with 19 and get an extra pick in the second with a later first so we could get a Tyler Johnson and starting corner or Murray if he is available. Brandon Aiyuk is very smooth. His tape is nice. Tyler is nice, he is so WR1. Jeudy and Lamb are WR1 without question. Shenault is a wildcard to me. I have heard him as a percy harvin, but i can also see him being a cordrelle patterson. Reagor is tyreek Hill on the upside, but he might be a bust. pittman is probably too slow to be effective as a WR1. Jefferson is similarly solid, but not a gamechanger. Ruggs has upside no doubt, but he could be Darius Heyward Bey. But, I'm good with trading the farm for Burrow as well. I have a man crush. Why wait for TL when Burrow is here now, and we have the draft capital to potentially make it happen? Lets go. He is a glowing god of QB yummyness! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfrey13 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 31 minutes ago, ragingraider said: I think you make good points, but Lamarr Chase also had a monster year opposite Jefferson. Tua isn't chopped liver so Ruggs has had a top QB throwing the ball as opposed to other on the list. I agree that skills translate and develop. A players college career isn't always totally predictive of NFL success. But, based on what we have seen, why expect Ruggs to be a guy he hasn't been. His speed is not enough for me. I want to see more from him to take him in the first over guys who have out produced him in college and shown a more consistent product on tape. Just about any WR in the first couple rounds if expectations are met are talented enough to produce for us. To me it comes down to value. I like a lot of players in this years draft but not all players at our current picks. The guys we will most likely be able to get at 12 I would like at 19 and the ones available at 19 I would want to get in the late 1st/early 2nd. I feel the same way about Murray at 19. As it stands right now I do not see us getting a lot of value out of our draft positions. I fell like we will be drafting at the beginning of different tiers. I would like to see some maneuvering from Mayock to maximize our potential talent. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolni Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 17 hours ago, oakdb36 said: I'm hoping for Tee Higgins at 19 but i think he ends up going higher. Probably depends how fast he runs at the combine and/or if he goes off tonight. Higgins at 19 after Simmons at 12 you say? Clemson Raiders baby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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