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FrantikRam

Why don't MVPs win the Super Bowl?

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20 minutes ago, DannyB said:

I...don't think that's how odds work. First of all, there is a 100% chance that the MVP will be on a team.

There's a 1/16 chance that the MVP will be on a specific contending team

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23 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

There's a 1/16 chance that the MVP will be on a specific contending team

The MVP is on a playoff team (16 teams). Those 16 teams get put into a jar and one gets chosen randomly as the Super Bowl winner. That's a 1/16 chance.

Am I being effing stupid here? Is there something I'm not grasping here? I mean I needed the Monty Hall problem explained to me before I just knew the answer, so maybe I'm slow on the uptake, but I feel like you're factoring in one too many multiplications of 1/16th.

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18 minutes ago, DannyB said:
44 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

There's a 1/16 chance that the MVP will be on a specific contending team

The MVP is on a playoff team (12 teams). Those 12 teams get put into a jar and one gets chosen randomly as the Super Bowl winner. That's a 1/12 chance.

Am I being effing stupid here? Is there something I'm not grasping here? I mean I needed the Monty Hall problem explained to me before I just knew the answer, so maybe I'm slow on the uptake, but I feel like you're factoring in one too many multiplications of 1/12th.

Switch to the other goat. You'll improve your odds by 2/12ths.

Edited by incognito_man

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2 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Guys, there are 12 playoff teams.

Please delete your quote of me so I can edit my post and act like this never happened. I will even go back and erase this post.

12 duh. Alex got my brain all jumbled here.

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Oh, Alex said 16ish teams that are playoff CONTENDERS.

I think let's just go with the MVP is going to be on a team that makes the playoffs. 12 teams to pick from. I think that's fair.

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2 minutes ago, DannyB said:

Please delete your quote of me so I can edit my post and act like this never happened. I will even go back and erase this post.

12 duh. Alex got my brain all jumbled here.

I got u

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2 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I got u

Oh snap. But you forgot the second time, it still says 16! Now I just look like an IDIOT! I can't afford that on this message board.

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1 hour ago, 49erurtaza said:

If it's a QB with crazy #s usually is because there defense is terrible.

If your defense sucks, if you don't put up crazy numbers, you're screwed.

When Matt Ryan won the MVP in 2016, we had the 27th defense in NFL by points per game, and 26th by defensive DVOA. We gave up 30+ points in 6 games, in which we were 1-5. We had 9 games giving up 28 points or more. Fun fact, the Falcons that year were winless in games where they didn't score at least 33 points. That was an atrocious defense, so there's some validity to this idea. If Matt Ryan didn't have the ridiculous season he had, we were going to be 6-10/5-11. I think that 2016 Falcons defense might be the worst defense to ever play in the Super Bowl (2011 Giants might be worse? I don't remember).

Granted, that offense was also one of the most efficient offenses ever going by per drive stats (3.06 points per drive,  the 2007 Pats had 3.37 points per drive, for what it's worth, so it was in pretty elite company in terms of efficiency), but if your defense is bad, you've got to put up numbers or else you're in trouble. The Falcons offense was one of the best in NFL history and the team went 11-5. Usually all-time great offenses end up going 13-3 or better. Imagine if the offense was off by 1-2 points per game, that team goes 8-8 or even worse.

Edited by Hukos

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Because MVP's are based on stats. And stats are usually compiled against crappy teams

There aren't many crappy teams in the playoffs, the deeper you go

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1 minute ago, TheGame316 said:

Because MVP's are based on stats. And stats are usually compiled against crappy teams

There aren't many crappy teams in the playoffs, the deeper you go

But how would that specifically work against the player who put up the best stats against those crappy teams?

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2 minutes ago, DannyB said:

But how would that specifically work against the player who put up the best stats against those crappy teams?

Because he's not such hot ish when he has to play against good teams, that generally have competent defenses

How much did Peytons fancy dome stats help him when he had to go to Gillette in January?, as an example

Edited by TheGame316

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1 minute ago, TheGame316 said:

Because he's not such hot ish when he has to play against good teams, that generally have competent defenses

yes i get what you're saying, but why would he be at a specific disadvantage, in comparison to the other players who are also playing against competent defenses now that it's the postseason?

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1 minute ago, DannyB said:

yes i get what you're saying, but why would he be at a specific disadvantage, in comparison to the other players who are also playing against competent defenses now that it's the postseason?

Because it levels the playing field

If a guy got to clean up on stats (which makes guys the MVP more often than not) against lousy teams, It does not necessarily mean he is some all dominant unstoppable player when the competition increases in the playoffs

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1 minute ago, TheGame316 said:

Because it levels the playing field

If a guy got to clean up on stats (which makes guys the MVP more often than not) against lousy teams, It does not necessarily mean he is some all dominant unstoppable player when the competition increases in the playoffs

Okay. I'm going to try this again.

The poster's assertion was that winning the MVP somehow seems to ACTIVELY WORK AGAINST the player in question. Not that the playing field is level, not that once the MVP is in the playoffs, it's random. They're saying it seems to actually become a DISADVANTAGE, like a curse or a hex or when you run over an old gypsy grandma with your car and the granddaughter casts a revenge spell.

Every team being better at defense in the playoffs does NOT explain why this phenomena seems to happen. It would explain why things seem to level out more, or the MVP seems no more likely than every other -- let's face it -- QB, but it doesn't answer why the MVP seems to do WORSE than average, when they spent all season being BETTER than average.

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8 minutes ago, DannyB said:

Okay. I'm going to try this again.

The poster's assertion was that winning the MVP somehow seems to ACTIVELY WORK AGAINST the player in question. Not that the playing field is level, not that once the MVP is in the playoffs, it's random. They're saying it seems to actually become a DISADVANTAGE, like a curse or a hex or when you run over an old gypsy grandma with your car and the granddaughter casts a revenge spell.

Every team being better at defense in the playoffs does NOT explain why this phenomena seems to happen. It would explain why things seem to level out more, or the MVP seems no more likely than every other -- let's face it -- QB, but it doesn't answer why the MVP seems to do WORSE than average, when they spent all season being BETTER than average.

It doesn't work against them at all figuratively. It just gets noticed more when the "MVP" either plays poorly or gets bounced from the playoffs

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