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FrantikRam

Why don't MVPs win the Super Bowl?

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It happened periodically throughout league history, but has stopped abruptly. The last time it happened was Kurt Warner, 20 years ago. So why doesn't it happen anymore? Here's a list (which assumes Lamar Jackson will win the MVP this year).

2000 - Faulk***

2001 - Warner*/**

2002 - Gannon*

2003 - Manning**/McNair**

2004 - Manning**

2005 - Alexander*

2006 - Tomlinson**

2007 - Brady*

2008 - Manning***

2009 - Manning*

2010 - Brady***

2011 - Rodgers***

2012 - Peterson***

2013 - Manning*

2014 - Rodgers

2015 - Newton*

2016 - Ryan*/**

2017 - Brady*

2018 - Mahomes**

2019 - Jackson***

 

* - lost Super Bowl

** - lost to the Patriots

*** - did not win a playoff game

 

I started this list and happened upon some consistent things: losing the Super Bowl (9 times), losing to the Patriots (7 times), and not winning a playoff game (6 times) - the only one that doesn't fall into these groups is Rodgers in 2014 - they won a playoff game and then lost the NFCCG to Seattle. The staggering thing is that MVPs are 0-9 in the Super Bowl since the year 2000. At first glance this would appear to be a coincidence - these teams were all different - some completely dominant (2001 Rams, 2007 Patriots, 2011 Packers), some were wild card teams (2000 Rams, 2012 Vikings, 2003 Titans). But 0-9 seems like more than just a coincidence and more like a death sentence.

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Usually I think because MVPs generally play on very good offenses overall but also usually have favorable defensive schedules. Teams generally can't field talented offenses and defenses in the same year. So you have the mix of an offensive team usually without a great defense going up against tough defenses that they have not had to face often during the regular season. 

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Rarely any secrets during the playoffs. Teams rarely adjust what’s working, example why would the Ravens switch what got them to the #1 seed in the first place.

Titans exposed Jackson’s inability to win from the pocket and exploited his weakness. 

Teams who constantly adjust and find ways to get better will always prevail.

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51 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

Usually I think because MVPs generally play on very good offenses overall but also usually have favorable defensive schedules. Teams generally can't field talented offenses and defenses in the same year. So you have the mix of an offensive team usually without a great defense going up against tough defenses that they have not had to face often during the regular season. 

 

Interestingly, the Rams/Patriots played in the 2001 season in New England. Rams won 24-17. Rams were better on both sides of the ball, by a large margin - had a top 5 defense that year and the Patriots did not. I think it was similar for the 2007 Patriots. 2006 Chargers went 14-2, so not sure about their defense, but I think it was very good.

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Super Bowls are hard to get. Playoffs are a single game sample size - we don't have a 7 game series in the NFL. MVP's are no guarantee of winning a championship.

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Because having the best player doesn’t translate to having the best or most successful team. Really embodies how much of a team and coach oriented sport that football is.

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It's just a wacky coincidence. Kinda like the Madden curse or the super bowl loser missing the playoffs the following year curse. It's not really a thing, sports fans are just superstitious by nature. 

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1 hour ago, Bearerofnews said:

I just remembered Peyton has 5 MVPs. Legend!!!

Just a popularity contest though.  

First team All Pro selections mean a lot more.  

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3 hours ago, RamblinMan99 said:

Just a popularity contest though.  

First team All Pro selections mean a lot more.  

The first team All Pro selection QB or RB is pretty much always the MVP. 

I'm pretty sure it's even the same voters who vote for both awards. 

In fact, every time Peyton won the MVP he was also a first team All Pro selection. 

3m174g.jpg

 

Edited by Coffee & Contemplation

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Obviously this isn't the best way of looking at it, but think about it in this light. 

You've got 16ish teams that are playoff contenders. Let's be generous and assume that the MVP has to be on one of those 16 teams. There's a 1/16 possibility that a team will win the SB. There's a 1/16 possibility that the MVP will be on a team.

1/16 X 1/16 = 1/256 = 0.4% chance of the MVP being on the Super Bowl winner.

That's cutting it down to 16 teams. 

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If it's a QB with crazy #s usually is because there defense is terrible.

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35 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Obviously this isn't the best way of looking at it, but think about it in this light. 

You've got 16ish teams that are playoff contenders. Let's be generous and assume that the MVP has to be on one of those 16 teams. There's a 1/16 possibility that a team will win the SB. There's a 1/16 possibility that the MVP will be on a team.

1/16 X 1/16 = 1/256 = 0.4% chance of the MVP being on the Super Bowl winner.

That's cutting it down to 16 teams. 

I...don't think that's how odds work. First of all, there is a 100% chance that the MVP will be on a team.

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