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2020 Baltimore Ravens Offseason Tracker

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5 hours ago, wackywabbit said:

At this point, I feel pretty sure Judon is going to be a Raven for 2020 at least. Doesn't seem like we are even sniffing around Clowney, like us fans thought we might. 

Especially with the abbreviated offseason putting more emphasis on continuity, I don't see us deciding to trade him for a mid-round pick in our current stage of contention.

I wouldn’t use the short terms results as justification for this idea though.

Not saying he won’t, but using the tag on a 3rd tier rusher was never going to be an immediate fit. We have to find a team willing to part with a 4th round pick or above (as we likely would’ve gotten a comp 4th for him if he weren’t resigned). Though obviously getting a 2nd/3rd would be most ideal.

Anyways all of that will likely have resistance. Even if we could get a 4th for Judon right now, at this moment, perhaps as we move closer to the draft the desperation could increase the offer to a 3rd. Perhaps another team then swoops in at the last second and the bidding pushes the value up to a 2nd. I think it’s still too much time to go for me to believe he will be back.

That said with CV19 being a thing the team could perhaps change strategies. A lot harder to win a championship with too many new faces and very little training camp. Therefore Judon COULD make more sense to our situation than he did 2-3 months ago. 

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Getting stuck with Judon is the price we have to pay for our history of FA/Comp dominance. The Football Gods are aiming to humble EDC early it seems.

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Completely fine bringing the rest of the band from last year back together and infusing talent from the draft at this point. We were solid last year and we’ve obviously improved up front. 

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Posted (edited)

I wouldn’t read too much into a deal not happening just yet. No reason to settle just to get things done. Guys like Clowney and YN finding homes would increase scarcity and the draft is still some time away. 

Edited by sp6488

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10 minutes ago, BareYourTeeth said:

 

Great value. 

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-PFF's summation of our work thus far this offseason (Pre Jimmy Smith deal)

(As always, -FWIW)

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Additions/players brought back:

EDGE Calais Campbell (via trade)

EDGE Matthew Judon (franchise tag)

Matt Skura (original-round tender)

DI Michael Brockers (signed for three years, $30 million, $21 million guaranteed)

Losses:

DI Michael Pierce

CB Jimmy Smith

Tony Jefferson (cut)

CB Brandon Carr

TE Hayden Hurst (via trade)

DI Chris Wormley (via trade)

The fact that Baltimore traded only a fifth-round pick for the second-most valuable defensive lineman over the past four seasons in Calais Campbell is pretty remarkable. Yes, he’s going to turn 34 years old before the season starts, but the man is a game-wrecker compared to his counterparts. Campbell has produced a PFF overall grade that has ranked sixth or better among all defensive linemen in each of the past four seasons. He has plenty of gas in the tank.

Michael Brockers has been a solid run defender throughout his career but a pretty subpar pass-rusher playing alongside the league’s most dominant interior defensive lineman in Aaron Donald. In his eight-year career, Brockers has never cracked the top 40 in pass-rush grade. As for tagging Matthew Judon, it’s a good move if the Ravens trade him away. Judon had a career year like Dante Fowler Jr. above but saw most of his production handed to him, as he owned the highest rate of cleanup/unblocked pressures.

FREE AGENCY GRADE: AVERAGE

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As for tagging Matthew Judon, it’s a good move if the Ravens trade him away. Judon had a career year like Dante Fowler Jr. above but saw most of his production handed to him, as he owned the highest rate of cleanup/unblocked pressures.

While I understand this critique, I have to ask, who is/are the players who really propped up our pass rush and allowed him to see so many cleanup/unblocked looks? I don't think there's anyone else along the defensive front that can be pointed to as a game wrecker who was demanding doubles or attention, or pushing the pocket for him to clean things up. Either Wink's scheme is absolutely incredible at scheming pressure (a good omen for next season), we have some guys that are flying way under the radar in terms of impact, or Judon is being overly penalized in some of these critiques. I think it's mostly (1) with caveat that our secondary allows Wink to maintain an elevated blitz rate mixed in with a dash of (3). Similar to the widely-shared win rate-double team rate scatter plot, I think it's a factor to consider, but not one that should invalidate his success entirely.

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Posted (edited)

Yea, I kind of feel like the nerd football community has now made Judon pretty darn underrated now. Everyone keeps throwing that one pass rush/double team graph that keeps getting thrown around. It's an interesting graph, but it's presented in a way that overstates percentage differences. It's not the end all, be all. Let's see a year from now if Za'Darius Smith is once again THAT much better than Matt Judon like he was in 2019.

Edited by wackywabbit

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1 hour ago, sp6488 said:

While I understand this critique, I have to ask, who is/are the players who really propped up our pass rush and allowed him to see so many cleanup/unblocked looks? I don't think there's anyone else along the defensive front that can be pointed to as a game wrecker who was demanding doubles or attention, or pushing the pocket for him to clean things up. Either Wink's scheme is absolutely incredible at scheming pressure (a good omen for next season), we have some guys that are flying way under the radar in terms of impact, or Judon is being overly penalized in some of these critiques. I think it's mostly (1) with caveat that our secondary allows Wink to maintain an elevated blitz rate mixed in with a dash of (3). Similar to the widely-shared win rate-double team rate scatter plot, I think it's a factor to consider, but not one that should invalidate his success entirely.

Definitely think its a majority of the great secondary options allotting the time and then its the scheme and then its Judon. Judon is a good finisher and no can take that away from him. But outside of a game where he plays against Marcus Mariota, I can’t really point to a game where he really takes over and demolishes the competition. He’s not a bad rusher at all. But I feel his role would be better filled by another option, perhaps Bowser. While Judon is no where near as bad as Tony Jefferson was, I feel like there’s a little bit of... we could upgrade this guy with this shiny toy we have (Chuck Clark in that scenario and Tyus Bowser in this scenario).

If we keep Judon, especially given the likely shortened offseason developmental opportunities, I won’t be upset. However if all things were created equal, I definitely would choose to move on from him and would feel better about our edge position with a rookie Zack Baun or Yetur Gross Matos than I do with Judon; for the future as well as the immediate edge impact.

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Wink's scheme is both confusing and overwhelming. Offensive lineman have trouble accounting for and recognizing the attack. Which can net us free rushers at a higher clip than other defenses. No one is commanding special attention. And from there our Elite DBs supply our front plenty of coverage pressure/Sack opportunities.

I don't think it's an unfair critique of Judon, so much as it's just a realistic look into how he produces as defensive weapon. The issue isn't whether or not he brings value to a defense, he does. Judon is a really smart defender with the burst to quickly diagnose and wreck plays. That's valuable. The problem is the price tag that comes with such a specialized and narrow skill set. How he produces the majority of the time is as a free rusher, coming unblocked, or matched up against TEs and completely outclassed Tackles(Brandon Parker). Those opportunities don't present themselves anywhere near enough to justify a price tag close to what he wants. 

The tape backs up these 'data' criticisms of Judon. You see a player routinely stuck on blocks, struggling to set the edge, operating as decoy more than an asset in coverage, and he has some gas tank issues as well. Judon was a great return on a 5th Round pick, and he does hold value. It just doesn't make sense for us to pay him.

15 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

Let's see a year from now if Za'Darius Smith is once again THAT much better than Matt Judon like he was in 2019.

ZDS was a lot better in 2018 too....

He was always a more nuanced, consistent, and versatile rusher. Better against the run too. 

Also ZDS is a player that's consistently improved/progressed technically. Judon is largely the same exact rusher he was a Rookie. He's a speed rusher with limited bend and/or counter moves. Pretty one note. 

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1 hour ago, diamondbull424 said:

Definitely think its a majority of the great secondary options allotting the time and then its the scheme and then its Judon. Judon is a good finisher and no can take that away from him. But outside of a game where he plays against Marcus Mariota, I can’t really point to a game where he really takes over and demolishes the competition. He’s not a bad rusher at all. But I feel his role would be better filled by another option, perhaps Bowser. While Judon is no where near as bad as Tony Jefferson was, I feel like there’s a little bit of... we could upgrade this guy with this shiny toy we have (Chuck Clark in that scenario and Tyus Bowser in this scenario).

If we keep Judon, especially given the likely shortened offseason developmental opportunities, I won’t be upset. However if all things were created equal, I definitely would choose to move on from him and would feel better about our edge position with a rookie Zack Baun or Yetur Gross Matos than I do with Judon; for the future as well as the immediate edge impact.

While there's definitely value in moving him for a premium pick (let's say high day 2), there's also potential benefits to having Judon AND a rookie. Given that he's on the tag, I don't believe the team will neglect the position just because Judon is on the squad. Also, while his cap number is definitely an "overpay" for this year, it has the benefit of not being a long-term commitment, which is not nothin' at this point. 

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11 hours ago, sp6488 said:

While there's definitely value in moving him for a premium pick (let's say high day 2), there's also potential benefits to having Judon AND a rookie. Given that he's on the tag, I don't believe the team will neglect the position just because Judon is on the squad. Also, while his cap number is definitely an "overpay" for this year, it has the benefit of not being a long-term commitment, which is not nothin' at this point. 

That’s just the thing, while I think it will be true for this season now... it’s only because the lost time new players will likely receive. But the way I see it a veteran like Judon is just going to stockblock playing time away from the rookie because he’s so entrenched. Now said play will he left competing for scraps with Ferguson and Bowser.

Conversely I think all things equal (normal offseason expected), I think Bowser would upgrade Judon’s pass rushing centric role, while Baun would be a legit pass rushing threat while YGM would be a better edge setter than any player we have and in his scenario he would replace Judon with similar pass rush ability with superior edge setting.

But alas things won’t be equal and said rookies will likely be struggling to get down the playbook and preferred techniques in such a short time. That said, it’ll likely be a similar offseason to what Jimmy and Torrey Smith experienced given that 2011 lockout. So the good thing is Harbaugh having experiences something SOMEWHAT similar, he should have a plan in place with making sure our new crop of rookies get up to speed as quickly as possible. Only thing is apparently Wink’s system is more complicated than what we were running back then if all the notions about how difficult it is a defense to pickup are to be believed. Targeting a specialized player and really just introducing them to that aspect while slowing building onto their expectations will be key.

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