Draft General (News, Media Mocks, Big Boards, Rumors)

[iknowcool]

22 hours ago, CWood21 said:

And then 10 days later, Carolina effectively takes themselves out of the QB market with the Sam Darnold trade.  So either Carolina had a QB3 who they LOVED, but are now going to miss out on OR they legitimately like Darnold better.  Seems to me the former is the more likely possibility.

Eh, it's difficult to say.  Nobody really knows who the Panthers want or like.  Let's not forget that they were close to trading away the #8 overall pick for Stafford - I think the only thing they were focused on was moving on from Teddy.

The move for Sam Darnold likely has more to do with how they see the Deshaun Watson situation playing out, and that is, regardless of what happens in the courts, he's going to get suspended this year and won't be available for a trade until 2022.  

While I really did want us to draft a QB, Panthers really haven't at any point strongly been linked to anyone (the Mac Jones commotion was only because Rhule coached the Senior Bowl and praised him publicly).  We inquired about Darnold months ago.  We wanted Stafford.  We were all-in on Watson.  I think the Panthers all along have been comfortable with sitting at #8 all along and seeing how the board falls.  We'll see what happens though.  Even as a fan I feel like nobody truly knows what they are doing.  There haven't been any leaks about the direction we're headed in.  Someone did say we love Justin Fields, and IMO just from a skill-set standpoint he's always made way more sense for this offense than Mac Jones did.  But we really haven't been linked to any one player.  And we did give away our 2022 2nd, not our 2021 2nd, so that could be a sign that while we don't want to rely on a QB falling to #8, we won't pass on him if he does.

EDIT - Apparently the Panthers did inquire about the #3 overall pick but felt the Dolphins were asking for far too much.  

Edited April 9, 2021 by iknowcool

[Forge]

14 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

Someone did say we love Justin Fields, and IMO just from a skill-set standpoint he's always made way more sense for this offense than Mac Jones did

It was Jourdan Rodrique. The report was that Carolina "loved" Fields, "liked" Mac. 

It's all just noise. That's why I'm not putting much stock in anything that happens or anything that is being said at the current point in time and one of the reasons that the Darnold trade means nothing to me.  IF things are the same with a week to go before the draft, or after Fields' pro day, its likely something that needs to be re-evaluated. 

[CWood21]

18 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

Eh, it's difficult to say.  Nobody really knows who the Panthers want or like.  Let's not forget that they were close to trading away the #8 overall pick for Stafford - I think the only thing they were focused on was moving on from Teddy.

The move for Sam Darnold likely has more to do with how they see the Deshaun Watson situation playing out, and that is, regardless of what happens in the courts, he's going to get suspended this year and won't be available for a trade until 2022.  

There's a stark difference between giving up the farm for an unproven QB on a rookie deal and giving up a hefty price for an established QB.  Some teams are philosophically opposed to giving up the farm for someone who hasn't proven a thing.  And as you mentioned, Carolina reportedly discussed moving up, but the price was prohibitive.  Again, either the Panthers didn't value QB3 as highly as they did (which seems unlikely given the fact that they explored moving up) or they felt that Darnold plus their FRP and SRP this year were more valuable than the rookie QB who they likely would need to use their SRP this year to move up to get.  If your choice is Darnold, #8, and your SRP or a rookie QB, which one is likely going to be the better solution?  If you believe in Darnold, the answer is pretty clearly the first option.

21 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

While I really did want us to draft a QB, Panthers really haven't at any point strongly been linked to anyone (the Mac Jones commotion was only because Rhule coached the Senior Bowl and praised him publicly).  We inquired about Darnold months ago.  We wanted Stafford.  We were all-in on Watson.  I think the Panthers all along have been comfortable with sitting at #8 all along and seeing how the board falls.  We'll see what happens though.  Even as a fan I feel like nobody truly knows what they are doing.  There haven't been any leaks about the direction we're headed in.  Someone did say we love Justin Fields, and IMO just from a skill-set standpoint he's always made way more sense for this offense than Mac Jones did.  But we really haven't been linked to any one player.  And we did give away our 2022 2nd, not our 2021 2nd, so that could be a sign that while we don't want to rely on a QB falling to #8, we won't pass on him if he does.

But the reocurring theme of this offseason was that the Panthers weren't going into the 2021 season with Teddy Bridgewater as their QB for anything other than as a stopgap.  Them exploring trades for Matthew Stafford and Deshaun Watson doesn't mean they weren't in on the young QBs.  Teams are going to explore all their options.  They might have a preference, but there's more to it then which QB they like the most.  Watson was the best QB of the bunch, but he's also the most expensive of the bunch.  San Francisco made the aggressive move up to ensure they got their QBOTF.  The Darnold trade reeked of "we don't want to be stuck with Bridgewater".  And you don't trade a SRP for a QB and then take another one at 8.  I don't care what the owner or GM says, they're not taking a QB at 8.

[iknowcool]

12 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

And you don't trade a SRP for a QB and then take another one at 8.  I don't care what the owner or GM says, they're not taking a QB at 8.

You also don't draft a QB in the top 10 only to draft another one the next year, but the Cardinals did it.  How would this be all that much different?  

I get what you are saying.  But we just don't know what the teams/Panthers want to do.  Panthers could still easily draft a QB at #8 if someone falls.  You are saying they did this move so they can take a non-QB at #8, but they could have also done this move as an insurance policy in case the guy they truly want doesn't fall to them (since nobody has a good feel on what the 49ers want to do), and didn't want to risk waiting until after the draft. 

But if the Panthers were willing to move up to #3 to take, say, Fields, then I strongly doubt they would pass on him if he fell to #8.  LIS it is just as likely the Darnold trade was an insurance policy as much as anything else, to ensure we wouldn't need to go into 2021 with Bridgewater as the penciled in starter.  Now the Panthers can try and trade him before the draft.

Edited April 9, 2021 by iknowcool

[MikeT14]

3 hours ago, paul-mac said:

I remember reading a bunch of mocks that had people trading up to the back end of the first for Kyle Lauletta!

Remember when Ryan Nassib was gonna go #8 overall?

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

You also don't draft a QB in the top 10 only to draft another one the next year, but the Cardinals did it.  How would this be all that much different?  

Not sure using Arizona as an example is analogous since first off Arizona was picking 1st overall after taking Rosen.  And secondly, are we sure the Cardinals would have taken Kyler Murray if they didn't hire Kliff Kingsbury as HC? 

3 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

I get what you are saying.  But we just don't know what the teams/Panthers want to do.  Panthers could still easily draft a QB at #8 if someone falls.  You are saying they did this move so they can take a non-QB at #8, but they could have also done this move as an insurance policy in case the guy they truly want doesn't fall to them (since nobody has a good feel on what the 49ers want to do), and didn't want to risk waiting until after the draft. 

That's an incredible waste of resources if the Panthers select another QB at 8.  And the only way the Panthers take a QB at 8 is if they have someone fall to them that they weren't anticipating.  And that seems unlikely at best.  You don't trade a SRP for an insurance policy.  Not to mention, that's a post-draft deal that you make not a pre-draft deal.  Darnold effectively takes the Panthers out of the QB market.

 

[iknowcool]

27 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

That's an incredible waste of resources if the Panthers select another QB at 8. 

So if the QB the Panthers take at #8 turns out to be a franchise QB, are you going to in 2024 be thinking, "damn, Panthers really could have used that 2nd round pick they sent to the Jets"?  Maybe if we were talking about another position, you would be right.  But QB is by far the most valuable position in football.  If a guy you think can be a franchise QB falls to you at 8, then you take him, end of story.    

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And the only way the Panthers take a QB at 8 is if they have someone fall to them that they weren't anticipating. 

... which is what I am saying (what other scenario would there be for taking a QB at #8?).  Hence you can't say decisively what the Panthers are going to do because nobody has any clue what is about to go down.  If the Panthers were willing to trade up to #3 overall for Justin Fields, then I am sure they would strongly consider taking him at #8 if he falls to us.  A 2nd round pick in 2022 is not going to prohibit the Panthers from doing that if they think Fields can be the guy.  They could sit him for a year and hope Darnold plays well enough that they can get their picks back next year.

Again though, not saying that is how it will play out.  But you can't pencil the Panthers in for something when nobody knows what it is exactly they are thinking.  

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Not to mention, that's a post-draft deal that you make not a pre-draft deal.

You are assuming the Jets would have been willing to wait until after the draft to make a deal.  In all likelihood Darnold was never going to be on the team come draft day.  So yes you make the pre-draft deal if you don't want to risk missing out on both a 2021 rookie QB and Darnold.  This way you have assured yourself at least one of them.  

And again, it is another reason why the 2nd and 4th round picks were for 2022, not 2021.  If anything that tells me the Panthers are still leaving the table open to drafting a QB at #8.

Edited April 9, 2021 by iknowcool

[CWood21]

37 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

So if the QB the Panthers take at #8 turns out to be a franchise QB, are you going to in 2024 be thinking, "damn, Panthers really could have used that 2nd round pick they sent to the Jets"?  Maybe if we were talking about another position, you would be right.  But QB is by far the most valuable position in football.  If a guy you think can be a franchise QB falls to you at 8, then you take him, end of story.   

Yes.  That's another pick they could have used to put a better core together around that QB they took at 8.  You don't give up a semi-premium asset for a player unless you're sold on him.  It's the equivalent of taking Justin Fields (or whatever QB is your choice here) at 8 and then immediately turning around selecting Kyle Trask at 39.   It's a waste of limited resources.  Remember when Washington was largely panned for taking 2 QBs with their first three picks?

39 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

... which is what I am saying (what other scenario would there be for taking a QB at #8?).  Hence you can't say decisively what the Panthers are going to do because nobody has any clue what is about to go down.  If the Panthers were willing to trade up to #3 overall for Justin Fields, then I am sure they would strongly consider taking him at #8 if he falls to us.  A 2nd round pick in 2022 is not going to prohibit the Panthers from doing that if they think Fields can be the guy.  They could sit him for a year and hope Darnold plays well enough that they can get their picks back next year.

Again though, not saying that is how it will play out.  But you can't pencil the Panthers in for something when nobody knows what it is exactly they are thinking.  

Again...why make the Darnold trade if there's still a chance that a QB falls?  But let's play out that hypothetical, what happens to Darnold in that sense?  You just traded a SRP for essentially a stop-gap.  That's an awful use of resources.  You're basically hoping that your best case scenario happens in that Darnold recoups all his value with one year less on his rookie contract.  That's not likely to happen.

40 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

You are assuming the Jets would have been willing to wait until after the draft to make a deal.  In all likelihood Darnold was never going to be on the team come draft day.  So yes you make the pre-draft deal if you don't want to risk missing out on both a 2021 rookie QB and Darnold.  This way you have assured yourself at least one of them.  

And again, it is another reason why the 2nd and 4th round picks were for 2022, not 2021.  If anything that tells me the Panthers are still leaving the table open to drafting a QB at #8.

There's no reason to suggest that the Jets had a similar offer on the table.  I believe most everyone reported that Carolina was effectively their only suitor.  So unless the Jets were willing to accept a "lesser" offer, it stands to reason that the Jets would hold onto Darnold until after the first round unfolds.  There's enough QB-needy teams and not enough QBs in the draft.  Might not get the package they got from Carolina, but have to figure teams like Chicago, WFT, or New Orleans would have interest.

[iknowcool]

33 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Remember when Washington was largely panned for taking 2 QBs with their first three picks?

Is this really your argument for why they should pass on a QB at #8?

Sure, they were panned, but it worked out for them.  Griffin flamed out but as a result of having Cousins, they got 3 years of very good QB play (not only that but the most consistent QB that franchise has had since the early 90s).  They just chose not to pay him what he wanted.  If anything that is example of why maybe you don't just hedge your bets on one QB.

Regardless, none of what you are saying has anything to do with my initial point.  Regardless of our opinion on if it would be a waste of resources or not, all I'm saying is you can't definitely take the Panthers out of the QB market.  Nobody knows what they are going to do.  And there are countless examples over the years of teams spending picks on QBs when they probably didn't need to.  Packers with Love and Brohm, Patriots with Jimmy G and Brissett, people laughed at the Eagles for taking Hurts last year, so on and so forth.  Again yes maybe you disagree that it isn't a good allocation of your resources but my point is it hasn't stopped teams from doing it in the past and it won't stop the Panthers from doing it now if they love Fields and he falls to #8.  That was the main thing I was commenting on and disagreeing with you on - you are trying to pencil the Panthers in to a situation where nobody really knows how anything is going to go down.  They absolutely, 100% could still draft a QB at #8.  You might not be a fan of it if it happens, but it doesn't mean it should be ruled out as a possibility.

Edited April 9, 2021 by iknowcool

[iknowcool]

Another example: Dolphins traded a 2nd round pick for Josh Rosen, drafted Tua the next year.  

 

Again a team is not going to pass on a QB they love in the first round just because they traded away a 2nd round pick for an unproven QB.  At the end of the day you want a franchise QB.  Nobody gives a crap that the Dolphins wasted the pick they spent on Rosen by drafting Tua.  If Darnold sucks, then the Panthers have Fields.  And if Darnold is good, they can trade him or trade Fields.

Either way you are acting like the Panthers are in some unique situation.  It would not be out of the ordinary in the least if they take a QB at #8.  This isn't 2008.  Teams will do whatever it takes to ensure they have a franchise QB.  You can't risk not having one nowadays, and unless you have a proven, young, healthy established starter, teams will be willing to use draft picks on one.  It is the reason why the Packers took advantage of Jordan Love falling to them, even though there really wasn't any reason to think Rodgers didn't have 2-3 great years left.  You want to have that guy when you need to have that guy.  

Edited April 9, 2021 by iknowcool

[goldfishwars]

 

[Teen Girl Squad]

3 hours ago, iknowcool said:

Another example: Dolphins traded a 2nd round pick for Josh Rosen, drafted Tua the next year.  

 

Again a team is not going to pass on a QB they love in the first round just because they traded away a 2nd round pick for an unproven QB.  At the end of the day you want a franchise QB.  Nobody gives a crap that the Dolphins wasted the pick they spent on Rosen by drafting Tua.  If Darnold sucks, then the Panthers have Fields.  And if Darnold is good, they can trade him or trade Fields.

Either way you are acting like the Panthers are in some unique situation.  It would not be out of the ordinary in the least if they take a QB at #8.  This isn't 2008.  Teams will do whatever it takes to ensure they have a franchise QB.  You can't risk not having one nowadays, and unless you have a proven, young, healthy established starter, teams will be willing to use draft picks on one.  It is the reason why the Packers took advantage of Jordan Love falling to them, even though there really wasn't any reason to think Rodgers didn't have 2-3 great years left.  You want to have that guy when you need to have that guy.  

Agreed. Especially if you are in Carolina's position. More dice rolls until you find the one is a good strategy in my book, even if I didn't like Darnold bet/overpay. If nothing else, this trade is likely cheaper than simply moving up for a QB and like Detroit, doesn't force their hand this year. If someone they like falls, then you can have real competition. If not, you are in line to get a good prospect to build around Darnold/your next dice roll.

[CWood21]

21 hours ago, iknowcool said:

Is this really your argument for why they should pass on a QB at #8?

Sure, they were panned, but it worked out for them.  Griffin flamed out but as a result of having Cousins, they got 3 years of very good QB play (not only that but the most consistent QB that franchise has had since the early 90s).  They just chose not to pay him what he wanted.  If anything that is example of why maybe you don't just hedge your bets on one QB.

It worked out because Kirk Cousins turned out to be halfway decent.  But if RG3 was able to keep up his career after his rookie season, the Kirk Cousins pick would have been a wasted asset.  So you're telling me that the Kirk Cousins pick would have been a good pick IF RG3 had succeeded?

21 hours ago, iknowcool said:

Regardless, none of what you are saying has anything to do with my initial point.  Regardless of our opinion on if it would be a waste of resources or not, all I'm saying is you can't definitely take the Panthers out of the QB market.  Nobody knows what they are going to do.  And there are countless examples over the years of teams spending picks on QBs when they probably didn't need to.  Packers with Love and Brohm, Patriots with Jimmy G and Brissett, people laughed at the Eagles for taking Hurts last year, so on and so forth.  Again yes maybe you disagree that it isn't a good allocation of your resources but my point is it hasn't stopped teams from doing it in the past and it won't stop the Panthers from doing it now if they love Fields and he falls to #8.  That was the main thing I was commenting on and disagreeing with you on - you are trying to pencil the Panthers in to a situation where nobody really knows how anything is going to go down.  They absolutely, 100% could still draft a QB at #8.  You might not be a fan of it if it happens, but it doesn't mean it should be ruled out as a possibility.

Except each of your comparisons happened in different years.  You take QB when the value is there, but you don't go out of your way to revamp your QB room.  It'd be the equivalent of the Panthers taking their QB at 8 and then taking someone like Kyle Trask at 39.

 

21 hours ago, iknowcool said:

Another example: Dolphins traded a 2nd round pick for Josh Rosen, drafted Tua the next year.  

Again, not a similar comparison.  The Dolphins traded a SRP for Josh Rosen, had him in their locker room for a FULL year, and then took Tua.  They knew Rosen sucked.  Not to mention, I think the majority of people felt that it was bad value for Miami.  Either way, the Dolphins knew what they had in Rosen after that year, which is why they went to Tua.

[KingOfNewYork]

I’m now convinced a QB will fall to Carolina at 8. Who that QB is and will they take him is the question.

[Forge]

3 hours ago, KingOfNewYork said:

I’m now convinced a QB will fall to Carolina at 8. Who that QB is and will they take him is the question.

I'm actually not sure that two aren't there.