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Karnage84

6 Round Draft

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1 minute ago, davisblack said:

I really like the players you drafted, but that trade seems pretty unrealistic. I can't see Miami giving up all that to move up two spots.

The Lions are already up 700 points in terms of draft pick value even without the 2021 2nd and Rosen.

Great draft overall though.

The 2021 2nd might be overkill. If we use the trade value chart we're looking at #5 - 1700 pts + #26 - 700 pts + #39 - 510 pts for a total of 2910 pts in exchange for #3 - 2200 points. This includes a 30% QB premium. Maybe #56 instead of #39 would be better in terms of proper value. It winds up being about 24% which seems to be closer to what the premium has been in the past. 

Even if we go that route, I don't know if the position stuff would change too much. Rashard Lawrence is available in this spot as is Ben Bredeson (OG). 

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44 minutes ago, davisblack said:

I really like the players you drafted, but that trade seems pretty unrealistic. I can't see Miami giving up all that to move up two spots.

The Lions are already up 700 points in terms of draft pick value even without the 2021 2nd and Rosen.

Great draft overall though.

Teams will give up what is required to get their QBOTF if they really think he is their guy. 

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I agree with davisblack as I don't see Miami giving up all of that to move up two spots, but I love the defensive focus of the draft. I've been screaming for it for years.

I also don't see Lemieux dropping down that far but crazier things have happened.

 

Love it!!

Edited by Louis Friend

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That trade down is very unrealistic IMO. Best you could get is Miami's 1st,2nd, and 3rd rd picks. Rather go DT Derrick Brown over Okudah at #5

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1 hour ago, BZski said:

That trade down is very unrealistic IMO. Best you could get is Miami's 1st,2nd, and 3rd rd picks. Rather go DT Derrick Brown over Okudah at #5

I disagree with both points.  Look what the Jets gave to get Darnold.  Really the only recent example in that range of the draft. Teams will do it, especially if we have other offers from SD, Carolina, Jax....  I think this scenario is a little overkill, but there will be a premium to move up into the top 3. 

and I think there are better DTs later in the draft than CBS.  I’d take Okudah all day over Brown.  I actually like Gallimore better for our D than Brown. 

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9 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I disagree with both points.  Look what the Jets gave to get Darnold.  Really the only recent example in that range of the draft. Teams will do it, especially if we have other offers from SD, Carolina, Jax....  I think this scenario is a little overkill, but there will be a premium to move up into the top 3. 

and I think there are better DTs later in the draft than CBS.  I’d take Okudah all day over Brown.  I actually like Gallimore better for our D than Brown. 

Agree to disagree. Doubt Miami gives up anything close to that and Brown is superior prospect to Okudah for our defense IMO. A CB has to be special to go top 5 and I don't see special with Okudah, I just see good. BQ and MP need impact players Year 1 and traditionally rookie CBs take longer to develop and rarely make a huge impact year 1.

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On 1/17/2020 at 3:55 PM, davisblack said:

I really like the players you drafted, but that trade seems pretty unrealistic. I can't see Miami giving up all that to move up two spots.

The Lions are already up 700 points in terms of draft pick value even without the 2021 2nd and Rosen.

Great draft overall though.

Generally you are correct, but to get a QB teams give up way too much. Miami wants Tua and they can't afford to wait until 5 to get him. This makes some sense and some might say why not trade with Washington? Because of a guy named Chase Young. Washington can't trade down and get their guy. If they do Young falls to the Lions. 

At 5 the Lions could get Okudah, Brown or the T of their choosing between the kid from Georgia or Iowa. 

This would be brilliant and the Lions are sitting in the ideal spot to rob somebody wanting Tua. 

Finally, I think the difference between Tua and Hebert is pretty significant. 

Edited by Golfman

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There is a QB premium that is going to be involved in these types of trade downs. This might be a BIT rich but changing #39 to #56? and losing the 2021 2nd probably does the trick on a more realistic basis. If I'm the Lions, I don't accept just the two 2nd rounders which is what some draft analysts have suggested could be the cost. 

To TL's point, a move down to #6 or #7 is also not out of the question depending on how aggressive those teams want to be on Herbert. I don't know if it's realistic to count on a double trade down but it's not totally out of the question either. 

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I like this mock, I was actually making a mock and had us trading with Miami and getting Rosen. I like the picks also .  Helps us this yr and in the future

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14 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

If I'm the Lions, I don't accept just the two 2nd rounders which is what some draft analysts have suggested could be the cost. 

If the trade is with Miami then why not? If they're happy with either Brown or Okudah, one if not both of them would be guaranteed to be there at 5. So it's just free draft picks at that point essentially. Obviously I want them to get as much as possible for the pick, but if the clocks ticking and that's the only offer, I say pull the trigger.

Honestly I would take just one 2nd from Miami if it was the only offer. It seems like a no brainer to me, unless they are targeting one specific player that they think the Giants would take.

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6 hours ago, davisblack said:

If the trade is with Miami then why not? If they're happy with either Brown or Okudah, one if not both of them would be guaranteed to be there at 5. So it's just free draft picks at that point essentially. Obviously I want them to get as much as possible for the pick, but if the clocks ticking and that's the only offer, I say pull the trigger.

Honestly I would take just one 2nd from Miami if it was the only offer. It seems like a no brainer to me, unless they are targeting one specific player that they think the Giants would take.

There's a couple things. 1) You don't start negotiating saying "we'll take anything". 2) There is the risk that they could lose their preferred player to the Giants 3) This is a unique situation where a premier level QB is available for a team that (arguably) doesn't need him and there are 2+ teams with picks in the top 10 that are in need of a QB. Miami needs to find their guy and they've had an eye on Tua for a long time; Los Angeles is moving into a new stadium and their former franchise QB is now a FA; Carolina has a brand new HC with a QB that is a big question mark and a starter that is likely better suited as a back-up. 

There is a market for sure. It will just depend on two things: How good is Tua's workout/injury check up? How good/bad is Herbert's workout/interviews?

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54 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

There's a couple things. 1) You don't start negotiating saying "we'll take anything". 2) There is the risk that they could lose their preferred player to the Giants 3) This is a unique situation where a premier level QB is available for a team that (arguably) doesn't need him and there are 2+ teams with picks in the top 10 that are in need of a QB. Miami needs to find their guy and they've had an eye on Tua for a long time; Los Angeles is moving into a new stadium and their former franchise QB is now a FA; Carolina has a brand new HC with a QB that is a big question mark and a starter that is likely better suited as a back-up. 

There is a market for sure. It will just depend on two things: How good is Tua's workout/injury check up? How good/bad is Herbert's workout/interviews?

I don't think he is saying lets start out saying give us anything and we move down to 5.  If as you say Herbert tests well, and Tua isn't as good as hoped, then there may be less interest from both teams.  At that point you take what you can get if, as DB said, you like two or more players equally.  I would like to get more, but there is a very real chance we don't.  

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8 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I don't think he is saying lets start out saying give us anything and we move down to 5.  If as you say Herbert tests well, and Tua isn't as good as hoped, then there may be less interest from both teams.  At that point you take what you can get if, as DB said, you like two or more players equally.  I would like to get more, but there is a very real chance we don't.  

Anything is possible. Although, if Herbert tests well and Tua doesn't then it just means that there's only really one other guy that's likely to be selected top 10 and that would boost up the value of the pick. Worst case scenario for us is that Tua, Herbert and Love all test through the roof and/or Panthers decide to keep Cam. 

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On 1/17/2020 at 11:45 AM, Karnage84 said:

#5, #26, #39, 2021 2nd + Josh Rosen*

First off, I don't think Miami is that desperate for Tua.  I think they're content putting their core around the QB position, and then look to grab their QBOTF next year.  As far as the trade, we have a pretty similar comparison when the Jets traded up for Sam Darnold.  The Jets traded the 6th overall pick (~1600), 37th overall pick (~530), 49th overall pick (~410), and a '19 SRP to move up to the 3rd overall pick (~2200).  That's an extra late SRP in value without taking into consideration the future pick value.  In this scenario, the Lions receive the 5th overall pick (~1700), 26th overall pick (~700), 39th overall pick (~510), and a future SRP.  That's roughly an extra late FRP worth of value without including their FRP.  I don't think the Lions are getting that much.  Either include a 3rd round pick going back to Miami or change that second FRP to the Dolphins OTHER SRP.

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1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

First off, I don't think Miami is that desperate for Tua.  I think they're content putting their core around the QB position, and then look to grab their QBOTF next year.  As far as the trade, we have a pretty similar comparison when the Jets traded up for Sam Darnold.  The Jets traded the 6th overall pick (~1600), 37th overall pick (~530), 49th overall pick (~410), and a '19 SRP to move up to the 3rd overall pick (~2200).  That's an extra late SRP in value without taking into consideration the future pick value.  In this scenario, the Lions receive the 5th overall pick (~1700), 26th overall pick (~700), 39th overall pick (~510), and a future SRP.  That's roughly an extra late FRP worth of value without including their FRP.  I don't think the Lions are getting that much.  Either include a 3rd round pick going back to Miami or change that second FRP to the Dolphins OTHER SRP.

I have addressed this earlier. We can drop the 2021 2nd and exchange #39 for #56? (whatever their lower 2nd rounder is) to balance things out. I'm not going to redo the mock for now as it doesn't drastically change things. I'll probably use this as a basis for a more indepth off-season and adjust that then. You have to account for all elements of a trade, which would include the future SRP in the example with the Jets. Future picks tend to be valued at the next round below (2nd = 3rd; 3rd = 4th, etc.). QB premium tends to be in the 20% range. 

I do disagree on Miami's position with Tua. Flores is in his second season as the Miami coach. He doesn't have a ton of time to demonstrate that the team is on the right track. Selecting a rookie QB does help in adding a little extra time. Instead of the 3 year window maybe he's given 4 years. What we're talking about as compensation to move up to #3 is peanuts given what kind of draft capital they have in pocket for 2020 and 2021. 

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