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How often does a great defense translate into a championship?


Hukos

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Take what you will from this.

The last 60 teams to appear in the Super Bowl had a total average of -7.5 in defensive DVOA with an average ranking of 10th in the league (10.3) and a total average of +14.5% in offensive DVOA with an average ranking of 7th in the league (7.1). 

The last 30 Super Bowl winners had an average of -10.0% in defense DVOA and ranked 9th on average (8.7) during the regular season, while the last 30 teams to lose in the SB had an average of -5.0% in defense DVOA and ranked 12th on average (11.9).

Similarly, these teams had an average of +13.6% in offensive DVOA and ranked 8th (7.5) on average during the regular season.

---18 of the last 30 SB winners ranked top 10 in defensive DVOA.  15 of which were top-5 and 12 of them were top-3.
---21 of the last 30 SB winners ranked top 10 in offensive DVOA.  15 of which were top-5 and 13 of them were top-3.

Conversely, there have only been two SB winners that ranked in the bottom-10 in defensive DVOA (the '98 Broncos and '06 Colts), and there have been 4 teams that ranked in the bottom-10 in offensive DVOA.

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This is total team DVOA, which measures how efficient a team is overall in all 3 phases (Off, Def, ST).

The last 60 teams to appear in the SB had a total avg of +23.6% and an average ranking of 5 (4.8).

--53 of them ranked in the top-10. These are the other 7 teams: '00 Giants (11th), '01 Patriots (11th),  '93 Bills (12th), '11 Giants (12th), '03 Panthers (16th), '07 Giants (14th), and '08 Cardinals (21st).

--40 of them ranked in the top-5 and 27 ranked in the top-3. 

The avg total DVOA among SB winners is 25.9% with an avg ranking of 4 (4.0), and the losers avg is 21.3% with an avg ranking of 6 (5.6).

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SB matchups
--The team that ranked higher in Total DVOA has a 19-11 record.
--The team that ranked higher in offense DVOA has a 13-17 record.
--The team that ranked higher in defense DVOA has an 18-12 record.

--There have been 20 times in which the SB winner ranked higher in offense DVOA than their opponents defensive DVOA. Plus 1 split ( '08 Cards/Pitt).
--There have been 10 times in which the SB winner ranked higher in defense DVOA than their opponents offensive DVOA. Plus 3 splits ( '91, '99, '13)

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**Worth noting, since 2006 the league has been favoring the offensive side of the ball more and more each year and none of these numbers reflect any of this.

The 4 teams left in the Playoffs

Total DVOA
KC: +30.2% (2nd)
SF:  +27.9% (5th)
TN: +13.8% (8th)
GB: +8.6% (9th)

Offense DVOA
KC:  +22.7% (3rd)
TN: +12.9% (6th)
SF: +7.2% (7th)
GB: +6.5% (8th)

Defense DVOA
SF: -19.8% (2nd)
KC: -3.4% (14th)
GB: -1.1% (15th)
TN: -1.0%(16th)

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