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Outpost31

Time To Heal (Or How I Learned to Stop Crying and Look Forward to the 2020 Season and Love the Future)

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54 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I mean, on average you'd expect a SB win once every 12 appearances, so 2 wins in 19 appearance is above average.

Every team will struggle against a stacked team. Hopefully that stacked team is us next year.

exactly. especially in the salary-cap era. GB was quite possibly a Bostick brainfart away from having 3 SB's. do fans really need to swing the narrative so wildly on such a small of turn of chance? it all just has the feel of a bunch of children lashing out because they subconsciously feel they are special and have some sort of birthright for the team [they had arbitrarily chose to root for] to experience greater than average success. 

I don't care who your QB is. It's unreasonable to expect your team to win out many times over a *31-team field*. Invariably every year, 2 or 3 new teams will stumble into a strong peaking window in their growth cycle with some strong draft picks (often aided by being high in the draft order). They'll also have hit on some FA's, who were gained from freed up cap space granted by the periodic expiration of existing team contracts. Since that team is early in their 'window', many core players will be on rookie contracts, allowing the team to be stronger. And those 2 or 3 teams combine with the 2-3 strong newcomer teams from the previous couple years who are still in their window. That's not even counting the stalwarts like the NE's and NOR's. So altogether you have at least 6-8 strong competitors. Then luck will determine the rest, whether it's injuries or a lucky bounce here or there. A ton has to go right.  

 

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4 hours ago, PackGymRat said:

Except history is against you.

Go look at how many times Packers made the playoffs since 2000. 

Answer: 13 Times

How many Super Bowls wins: 1

How many times since 1993? 19 times

How many Super Bowls? 2 Wins (3 appearances).

This team will continue to struggle against stacked teams in the playoffs. AR will continue to choke. And whoever our D coordinator is will continue to give up records for the history books.

There is something about these elite teams that causes our offense and defense to forget how to play football completely. Until you fix that it won’t matter who you field or sign.

I think other people commented on averages (should win 1 in 12). 
 

I will add not all playoff appearances are equal. To win the Super Bowl you typically need to be really good at both sides of the ball or super elite on one side/capable at another,  which we haven’t been. Looking at our teams that have made the playoffs, we’ve had 1 1 seed this century (2011). We’ve had mostly good not great teams entering the tournament. Our only favored nfc title game we lost was 07 vs the Giants at home. We were 7+ point underdogs against atl and SF (something similar vs Seattle as well). We’ve been in the mix, but haven’t had super Bowl teams.

 

 

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8 hours ago, deltarich87 said:

Poach Arik Armstead and Emmanuel Sanders from SF this offseason. Then sign a TE(haven't looked at UFA yet) and draft a WR with their 1st or 2nd rd pick. ILB is trickier, but not paying Blake Martinez is a good start

 

Super Bowl

Austin Hooper

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I think that my main reason for optimism is the perceived improvement in team morale and buy-in from the players.  From Rodgers on down I feel like this team gelled unlike previous seasons.  Last year at this time I don't think anyone would have predicted a Green Bay/San Francisco NFCCG.  Hard to say what next year will bring, but I feel like Green Bay will be in the post season again next year.   

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10 hours ago, ReadyToThump said:

Bold take: Rodgers retires this off-season and we're forced to draft a QB this year. 

Yeah, we're gonna find his replacement picking #29 this spring.   :/  I doubt AR is retiring.

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10 hours ago, fistfullofbeer said:

I am not too worried about next season. This team easily overachieved this year. If they can improve the ILB position and the WR position, we are going to be significantly better next year. My only real concern is Rodgers taking a step back.

With better WRs Rodgers should still be good enough.  His biggest problem is not always taking what the defense gives him.  We also shouldn't have receivers running 3 yard routes on 3rd and 8 against good tackling teams like SF.

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10 hours ago, KFP7 said:

Rodgers isn't retiring.  I don't think there is anyone in the league that wants a super bowl more than he wants his second.  

And we really are not that far off either.

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8 hours ago, DWhitehurst said:

The challenge is drafting at the bottom of each round, I don't see Gute being able to adequately shore up all the needs in just this one coming offseason. This draft's depth seems to me to be at WR, CB, RB. It is scarce for TE, ILB, DL, OT. Ok, there are some mid round ILB 's, but are they gonna be any better than Martinez? So hopefully in free agency they can address at least one of these scarcer positions. In the draft, I'd pick a couple WR's early, say between rounds 1 & 4. I think the Packers have a better shot at improving the offense than the defense, just given how this Draft's positional depth lines up. (Granted, even here, this is assuming the rookie WR's pick things up very quickly, which is far from a given.) I think this Defense will continue to suck against the run next season. Hope I'm wrong. 

Well, at least we know Gute isn't afraid of addressing needs via FA.  Perhaps there he can fix some of our needs that won't be there in the draft.  Happily one area we really need help in is WR which appears this year is a deep class for that position.

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21 minutes ago, Pugger said:

Yeah, we're gonna find his replacement picking #29 this spring.   :/  I doubt AR is retiring.

Just throwing the idea out there, and how bold of you to assume we'll trade up to pick #29 from #30 to draft a QB. :P

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1 minute ago, ReadyToThump said:

Just throwing the idea out there, and how bold of you to assume we'll trade up to pick #29 from #30 to draft a QB. :P

lol  I was assuming we'd be 29 and not 30. 

This is the thing.  Unless we stink for a few years to enable us to draft near the top of the draft or another QB like Rodgers falls like he did in 2005 it isn't going to be easy to find his replacement any time soon so we better try to go all in the next couple of years while we can by surrounding our veteran QB with a better supporting cast than we have presently.

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11 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

At the start of this year, I told y'all we would be better than we all thought we would be, but that we would not win the Super Bowl.  It's impossible to win a Super Bowl when you pay your QB over 13% of the cap.  We were paying Rodgers over 14% of the cap. 

We made serious strides on defense.  I think Pettine should go, but that's a different discussion.  Next year, we will have Savage and Gary in their second years, the Smiths and Amos in the second year of the system and definite additions to the defense.  Everybody who matters is under contract. 

Aaron Rodgers is set to make less than 11% of the cap next year thanks to some of his cap hit being converted into a signing bonus this year.  That's huge.

I've said for a very long time that this year is not our year, but next year is. 

Deep run into the playoffs (got that experience for our young players).
Experience for LaFleur.
Strong cap health. 

Next year we are winning it all.  There is no doubt in my mind.  Get ready for it because it starts in September and ends a year and two weeks from now with our fifth Super Bowl win. 

Yep. I think most of us always knew winning it this year was a real long shot and that we're a year away. I have confidence MLF and Gutey will take GB from a good team to a great team next season.

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We went to the NFCCG with a rookie head coach! Do we have flaws? For sure, but we're right there guys. It won't be easy, this conference is really tough but I trust Brian Gutekunst and Matt LaFleur to get us here again

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I agree with @Outpost31 Next year should be the better year.  Maybe the record isn't as pretty, but it should be better.  Second year with the HC.

It is a slippery slope, though.  We won a lot of close games.  I don't think we ever ran a play with a lead against the Lions in two games.  And in one of them they didn't have Stafford.

GB needs to re-load.  And...we have money.  We can't plug all holes, but we can plug plenty.

I have no doubt we will get it done.

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6 hours ago, TransientTexan said:

exactly. especially in the salary-cap era. GB was quite possibly a Bostick brainfart away from having 3 SB's. do fans really need to swing the narrative so wildly on such a small of turn of chance? it all just has the feel of a bunch of children lashing out because they subconsciously feel they are special and have some sort of birthright for the team [they had arbitrarily chose to root for] to experience greater than average success. 

I don't care who your QB is. It's unreasonable to expect your team to win out many times over a *31-team field*. Invariably every year, 2 or 3 new teams will stumble into a strong peaking window in their growth cycle with some strong draft picks (often aided by being high in the draft order). They'll also have hit on some FA's, who were gained from freed up cap space granted by the periodic expiration of existing team contracts. Since that team is early in their 'window', many core players will be on rookie contracts, allowing the team to be stronger. And those 2 or 3 teams combine with the 2-3 strong newcomer teams from the previous couple years who are still in their window. That's not even counting the stalwarts like the NE's and NOR's. So altogether you have at least 6-8 strong competitors. Then luck will determine the rest, whether it's injuries or a lucky bounce here or there. A ton has to go right.  

 

this, combined with what I feel is the most overlooked aspect in the entire NFL: maintaining success is FRIGGIN HARD.

Everything is stacked against it. NE is an outlier. It's relatively much, much, MUCH easier (as you indicated) to GET good, than to stay good. Building a juggernaut often requires being terrible for awhile before hand, and then installing a winning leadership team to capitalize on the acquired capital.

GB needs the high capital from 2018 and 2019 drafts and 2019 FA to take the next step(s) in the next couple years to benefit from this. Unfortunately, 2018 is looking...pretty bad right now. GB badly needs at least one of Burks, MVS or ESB to be a serviceable starter at minimum. 2019 looks more promising, but need Gary and Savage to take significant 2nd year jumps and Jenkins to continue to progress. Contributions from Keke and/or Sternberger could help offset 2018 misses. Also need another hit in 2020 free agency most likely.

So, need 4-5 2nd and 3rd year players to ascend significantly and another vet or two to contribute in 2020 with minimal regression elsewhere to be a "juggernaut" IMO.

 

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I'm really pleased with how this season turned out, although some of the close games probably took some years off my life! Anyhow the Pack way over exceeded expectations! And the needle is pointing UP! This offseason should bring to near completion the rebuilding process. Here IMHO are the next steps.

The past offseason was mostly dedicated to getting the guys Pettine needed to run his defense. That job isn't quite done yet, but we took a huge step. This offseason should be dedicated to getting the guys MFL needs to run his offense (and finishing the defensive rebuild).

What's left to do, specifically? The advantage of going up against a complete team like SF is it provides a good measure of strengths and weaknesses. But I think most of us already knew what they were: (1) lack of quality WRs, (2) lack of quality IDL, and (3) lack of quality ILBs. 

The glaring hole on offense is the WR position. Fortunately, the draft is supposed to be stacked at WR. I like picking position groups that are the strength of the draft, because you get high value from the picks. So, drafting at #30, the best value that low will probably be a WR. I would be for using #1 and #3 for WRs. Our WR group is that weak. Only Adams and Lazard have any use going forward. The rest are all meh. Which WRs the Packers take in the draft will be informative about MFL's vision of the offense. But they will have to smart, quick studies to click with Rodgers. No one with a single digit Wonderlik score need apply. (Note: I know many posters are concerned about TE too, but I have great optimism that Sternberger will emerge next year.)

As for IDL, if a team can win a Super Bowl with players named Tyler Lancaster and Dean Lowery, the Super Bowl would be a crowded place. This area desperately needs improvement, since our only legit player is Clark. Since, it takes a while for big men not named Bosa to get up to speed at the pro level, this should be the #1 target in FA. 

ILB may turn out to be the hardest fix, but, if the DL can be upgraded enough to keep our ILBs clean, we might be able to scrape by. Not sure what to do about Martinez. I guess that depends on cost to resign, and who else is available. Taking some shots in the draft is a must.

There's Gute's to-do list. Go for it, Gute! See you all in the Super Bowl next year!

 

Edited by Mr. Fussnputz

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