Time To Heal (Or How I Learned to Stop Crying and Look Forward to the 2020 Season and Love the Future)

[TheOnlyThing]

3 minutes ago, Leader said:

He's #2 in total tackles. He's gonna get play from some other teams. He might not be Mr. Dynamic "Sideline 2 Sideline" Guy - but in a different system? Somebody's gonna value those tackles plus since 2017 (when he played in 13 games) - he's been on the field for 48 straight games. 

Top tackler who's never injured (or misses games?). 

I'm sure you are correct that some team is going to value Martinez because of the tackles he makes.

For example, Preston Brown led the NFL in tackles in 2017 and the Bengals then signed him to a free agent deal.

[Toddfather]

1 hour ago, Leader said:

He's #2 in total tackles. He's gonna get play from some other teams. He might not be Mr. Dynamic "Sideline 2 Sideline" Guy - but in a different system? Somebody's gonna value those tackles plus since 2017 (when he played in 13 games) - he's been on the field for 48 straight games. 

Top tackler who's never injured (or misses games?). 

[Billy86]

My big long rambling post about my thoughts after last night, and after this season:

 

We got walloped yesterday, it was atrocious and brutal to watch... and it was also expected, to be honest. But despite that, I think this season was a big success and if you had asked me in August how I would feel about getting to the Conference game without Rogers re-entering God mode, I don't think I quite would have believed you to be honest. At no point in the last 7-8 years, if not more, would we be able to pull of even an 8-8 season with Rogers playing at the level he did this season, so I think we have a lot to work with.

Last year if you asked where our holes were, the answer was "almost everywhere" - this year, we turned several into strengths (OLB, DB starters, OL to an extent and running game) and perhaps just as importantly, we have some clear and well-defined weaknesses to work on going into the offseason in the areas where this did not materialise:

 

WEAKNESS 1: Pass catchers
To be clear, I am not really down at all about the fact that we didn't make this a premium last year. We may have dropped the ball (hiyoooooo!!!) in not making a move during the season which could have put us over the top but this time last year we had more holes than Swiss cheese. But in the offseason, we identified our needs, attacked many of them aggressively, and in the Smiths and Amos we saw huge payoff which should sustain for the next 3-5 years. We had potentials at WR (MVS, ESB, J'Mon), and while they may not have really panned out, the guys we had at OLB, S, etc a year ago were not potentials. In the draft, both Savage and Jenkins have more than justified not going for a WR/TE there already, and while the same cannot immediately be said for Gary, he was always going to be a long term project and the Smiths have severely limited the time he has seen to develop so far. Our very next pick was for Sternberger, who just happened to miss most of the year injured.

I also think that a massively underrated area that (possibly) hamstrung us this year were said injuries to Sternberger and ESB. This year (and last) were largely experimental - J'Mon and Sheppard showed they are not NFL players, Tonyan showed he is really just a ST/depth guy, and MVS seems to have shown that while he is liable to make several 50 yard, momentum-changing catches in a year... that's really all he offers to the offense, with very little sign of actually being a legit NFL WR (as opposed to a trick player, which he essentially is). ESB came on quite a bit for me over last season, and looked really smooth, even Jordy-like in terms of cut backs and some sideline grabs on occasion. Would he have been an automatic success? Of course not, but I think he could have comfortably had Lazard-level play, quite possibly more, and I am still holding out some hope for him in this sense for next year.

But let's look at the positives... Davante is as good as any/almost any no.1 receiver there is, full stop. Lazard may not quite be a number 2, but came out of nowhere to be a really good guy to have on our roster and I for one feel good seeing him lined up on a 3rd and 7 play with his physicality, plus he facilitates the run game. A lot of people think Kumerow is gone, but I can see him at least fighting for a roster spot next year and think he adds a lot to the team also... AS A SPECIAL TEAMER / #5-6 WR! I can't stress that enough, but at that level, his mix of size, intelligence and experience makes him very useful against dime backs and backups, while he also offers ap lus blocker and someone more than willing in ST. If we get the right guy opposite Adams, I actually quite like having Lazard/MVS/Kumerow/St. Brown 'down the depth chart'.
But the fact is, we need another WR, and badly. We could go for a 'premium' guy on a bit of a prove it deal like an AJ Green, but the pickings really do seem slim there this year, which is why I hope we look for one in the top two rounds. Outside of Green, Cooper and Sanders, our best bet might be drafting early and looking for a value signing that can be easily cut if things don't work out, e.g. Josh Gordon, Jermaine Kearse, Deymarius Thomas, etc.

As for TE, I am happy to have Lewis back with the caveat that he is essentially a line man who will do well to hit 10 catches or 100 yards all season and Sternberger will of course be in the mix. After that, I think Tonyan will be lucky to be on the roster and will likely be replaced - in a perfect world, I would love to see a Hunter Henry or Austin Hooper in his place, e.g. a legit NFL TE who should be our starter if Sternberger is not ready to step up.

Ideally, I would like to see our pass catching options look a bit like this next year (using Hooper as a fill in on TE, it doesn'ty 100% need to be him):
No 1 option. Adams
No 2-4 options: Hooper (TE), Lazard + FA or Rookie WR (pref taken top 2 rounds)
No. 5-7 options: budget FA WR, Sternberger, ESB (latter two with potential to move up quite fast)
No., 8-9 options: MVS (more for speed), Kumerow (more for reliability).
No. 10: Marcedes (if here, it will be for blocking)

7 WRs, 3 TEs... quite possible we throw another TE in there, my guess being a mid-late round guy and more of a blocker, if so. I have not mentioned Graham because he a 100% goner. Also of course Ervin, Jones and Williams catching passes out of the backfield.

 
WEAKNESS 2: (Lack of) Offensive identity, and Plans B & C
One big thing we lacked this year was an offensive identity. For years under McCarthy, we were identified as a team that could slice through the opposition with the West Coast offense using precision timing and accuracy, and then could crack you over the top for 50 yards at any given time - we were utterly surgical, though that obviously died off near the end. On the flip side, we were also identified as a team that would rarely run over the opposition, and that could be bullied off the field through sheer physicality. McCarthy never really even seemed interested in coming up with an answer for this, and it was a huge part of his downfall.

Obviously that had disintegrated away well before this year, and while we have established the run game far more effectively (if the numbers don't seem to bare it out, it is because McCarthy ran quite a bit on the first drives of games/halves, then neglected it almost entirely thereafter, while we now are liable to run it quite a bit on any given drive), it otherwise still every bit the issue now that it was in August.

I do have some hopes that the lack of pass catchers outside of Davante is a big reason for our lack of a true identity this year, and if we had a second guy also needing a lot of attention it would fix things up quite a bit in this regard, and could also see guys like MVS (speed), Irvin (slippery) or Lazard (big, strong and angry) be utilised in a more specialised way which could really get the most out of them on a value-per-snap basis (e.g. less snaps, but far more production per snap). An upgrade on Vitale could also help a lot here, and last night is a prime example of why - Kittle and Juszczyk were like travelling linemen at times, shooting out wide or 5-15 yards diagnolly up the field to completely erase anyone we had to stop runners or pass catchers. Last night was obviously down the running, but the 49ers having the shortest pass completion percentage distance and largest YAC per catch in the league is not a coincidence and is far, far from being solely down to scheme - they have an epic sense of identity, what they want to do, and precisely how they plan to do it and who to have on the field to achieve this (not unlike the Falcons in Shanahan's last year there), which is something I hope we are working tirelessly on throughout the postseason.

I can even forgive our lack of this somewhat, because there was so, so much rebuilding to do all over after the last 2-3 years that it almost made sense for LaFleur and co to really key in on all other aspects and hope with Rogers, the passing game would take care of itself. But we have made such strides in so many facets that, to be this is the number one area to focus on across the entire team in the offseason... after/along with the run defense.

And it should be stressed that this job cannot be underestimated, because not only do we need to fix it... we also need to develop a plan B, and a plan C. Under McCarthy if you punched us straight in the mouth and did it effectively, our offense often seemed to assume the foetal position. Under LaFleur, we seemed tougher physically but perhaps weaker mentally for this happening. This is part scheme, and part talent, which is why 'opening up' guys like Irvin, Lazard, MVS etc with another high calbire pass catcher or two is so important. We need a situation where (Chris Collinsworth voice) "when you've Adams locked down with your best two guys, all of a sudden [new pass catcher] is open, and when you switch some guys across to him you're leaving the middle open for [Hooper? New TE]. But even when you manage that, you know Rogers is gonna find Aaron Jones sneaking out of the backfield, or Lazard hulking over a 5'9 DB, or can audible MVS into a go route against an OLB that can't hope to keep up, or even Irvin/[New FB/whoever]... or they'll just move it into a run on the line, and pick up 7+ free yards and control the clock some more". We are in an era where the less orthodox the better at times if it can catch defenses off guard (former Packer Taysom Hill vs MIN being one of the wilder examples), and we need to have some of that. I have a hunch we will see that utilised in more crossing-and-bunching similar to what SF run a tonne of and KC have really mastered in the Mahomes era, but really anything will do.

More than drops, more than lack of separation, more than missed targets or anything else, that is what we lacked all season. I rarely, if ever, went into a game knowing what our road to scoring points would be - e.g. taking advantage of a slower secondary, exploiting softness over the middle, keying in on that backup OLB/DE who struggles against the run, etc etc. Instead, week after week I just had a sense of us trying to get past the yellow marker and into FG range however we could, and then trying to get it into the endzone in whatever way we could.

TLDR: We need more wrinkles, basically. Wrinkles and pass catchers.

 

WEAKNESS 3: Run Defense
This goes without saying. I love that we can now defend the pass. I love that 3rd and 5 makes me excited that we look ready to get a stop, after a decade of 3rd-and-15 being to my mind, little more than a 25-30% chance of actually stopping the first down. I love that we can physically impose ourselves on teams at times, and I love that we have guys like Kenny and Zadarius who has that semi-psychotic edge on the handful of plays that really, really count in a game.

But we need to fix up our run defense, and in a very bad way. I was not a fan of our getting rid of Daniels and even thought despite the injuries that we should have brought Mo Wilkerson back (assuming he was willing to sign for like 3.5mn or less), and I think we paid dearly for not doing so. A year ago, I was a little giddy about those two + Clark, with the likes of Lowry and Lancaster as backups. Lowry and Lancaster this year, proved they are backups - and good ones that I like at that - but they should never have been so high up the depth chart. Kenny is for my money the best NT in the league, but we need to put some real 'big nasties' in there with him. Because defensive linemen can often take a year to two to develop (see: Kenny), this is actually perhaps the number one position I would like to see us attack aggressively in FA if we are spending big anywhere, and getting someone "ready to go on day one".

I also think ILB plays into this, though I also think people dump on Blake a little too much. I like him, and think he is very good at what he does - but what he does is not what a Bobby Wagner or previously a Luke Kuechly does, which is covering more or less everything. And asking him to do these duties, is ask ing for a bad time. Blake is at his best when he is given a bit of a freedom to blitz the QB or follow the ball, but covering on the back end is not his thing. Pettine really likes amiguity in his defensive formations, and if that means Blake goes this offseason due to not being as multi-faceted, then so be it, but another team will be picking themselves up a very good player.

Assuming we resign Martinez for the right price, then we really need to find a guy who can do what we hoped Burks could (he's shown so little that I wouldn't even be guaranteeing him a roster spot next year). A high draft pick might be the best option if we are spending money on Blake, though I think Joe Schobert (FA) is really underrated at the position, that Cory Littleton could also be a great fit, and to be honest while I've not seen a tonne of him, Correa over at TEN really impressed me over their playoff games.

That said, Pettine is somewhat on the bubble now. I think the good outweighs the bad by a fair distance, and last year he had the massive caveat that he was basically playing with square pegs in lots of round holes and a lack of talent. There was a small bit of that this year, but not much, and I think next season if we do not see a huge improvement on the run defense, it will likely be time to say goodbye. But I don't agree with firing him this year, it's easy to forget but the defense is what got us where we are first and foremost, and kept us in several games that we both won and lost.

TLDR: I'm not so sure how much of this is system, I think this really has to do with personnel and talent at DE/DT/ILB (barring of course Kenny, and to an extent Blake). Along with pass catchers, this is undoubtedly where the bigger FA money and/or higher draft picks need to go.

WEAKNESS 4: Secondary depth
This falls way behind the others above, but is probably the next most important since we have quite a few JAGs there. King is occasionally liable to give up a big play but I like him, Savage I really like, and both Amos and especially Jaire I love. After them, Sullivan and Greene will likely be back next year, but after that it is a free for all. I think a mid rounder, late rounder, and possibly a value FA signing or two could do us a lot of good here.

WEAKNESS 5: Offensive line depth.
I don't put this as high as some, though a Bulaga replacement for 2021 would definitely be a help and we should be keeping an eye for a real high value pick like Jenkins this year if we can get them. Turner is just OK, the other 4 starters are solid to great, I really liked Patrick's play this year as a backup, the depth don't strike me as huge liabilities once Veldheer came in, but someone to replace him in 2020 and Bulaga beyond would definitely be nice.

To me, that is a major step up on last year. We don't know how it will shake out, and last year when we were all excited about OLBs we wound up slightly underwhelmed by the combo we got and price we paid in the Smith Bros, so there is every chance we see similar. But as a real off-the-cuff, names-on-a-napkin type of approach to what I would like to see this off-season, it would be:

 

QB/RB: All fine here, maybe if a real gem falls late in either spot then go for it I suppose.
WR: One in the top two rounds, plus another low cost 'prove it' type of deal on a proven, decent player. A premium WR plus a mid round guy wouldn't be bad either.
TE: One of the bigger name FAs, ideally to compete with Sternberger if he continues to come on. A mid/late round guy more focused on blocking wouldn't hurt either (and would be needed if we don't resign Lewis).
OL: Look for good value at RT to eventually replace Bulaga/fill swing tackle ASAP, but it's not as high as ILB, D-Line or pass catcher. As always with the lines, keep an eye on beefing up the depth late in FA and late in the draft regardless.
DL: Hit this big and look to get a serious impact player in FA, as well as a budget FA signing and/or mid-late round rookie with size and aggression. On the flip side, trading up in the first for a premium DLineman who can make a big impact as a rookie, along with a cheaper FA 'big body' signing would also work for me, but I just don't see us taking that approach.
ILB: Either resign Martinez for a good price, or get a better system fit in his place. If we do both, then a mid/late round should be fine. If we only do one, then we need to be moving this up with WR & DL to a top draft priority, to the point that I again wouldn't mind drafting up for 'the right guy'.
OLB: Like QB/RB, if a real gem lands late then go for it but there is no pressing need.
DB: Flesh out the depth considerably, mostly through bargain signings or good system fits late in the draft. It is a need, it might even require a few new players, but it does not require to be treated with the same premium as it has in years past (or as other positions this year).

[FAH1223]

17 hours ago, Norm said:

It's just that easy guys! Get 3 of the top 25 pass catchers in the NFL. 

I get you guys, but how the hell are we supposed to do that? You can hope you have the draft of a lifetime but they still take time and AR gets older every year too

Well, we have one top catcher

 

Just need competent WRs who can separate off the snap quickly... so we need guys who can run. Enough with these big plodding WRs. 

[{Family Ghost}]

2 minutes ago, FAH1223 said:

Well, we have one top catcher

 

Just need competent WRs who can separate off the snap quickly... so we need guys who can run. Enough with these big plodding WRs. 

Speed kills and we have very little of it compared to the top teams in the league.

[TheOnlyThing]

3 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Speed kills and we have very little of it compared to the top teams in the league.

In 2019, Pack lacked speed at RB2, WR2, WR3, WR4 (assuming MVS was WR5), TE1, TE2, ILB1, and ILB2.

Looking forward to the Pack adding speed at least 4 of these 8 positions.

[Pugger]

5 hours ago, Scoremore said:

Yep.  Plug the middle but need LB's that can get to the edge.  We have neither.

I think the Smith "brothers" would disagree.

[Norm]

21 minutes ago, FAH1223 said:

Well, we have one top catcher

 

Just need competent WRs who can separate off the snap quickly... so we need guys who can run. Enough with these big plodding WRs. 

Never going to argue "against" speed. We all want that. I just think it's more difficult to acquire it, especially ones who can build trust in the route running with Rodgers as well. I bitched about our ILB and WR group to start the year too. But there's only so much we can do, we obviously need DL help too. I guess I was hoping AR would be seasoned enough by now to find a way to make it work with lesser bodies. 

Kinda seems like that might have been the orgs sentiment too. 

Edited January 20, 2020 by Norm

[Scoremore]

22 minutes ago, Pugger said:

I think the Smith "brothers" would disagree.

ILB's  should have clarified that.  

[TheOnlyThing]

1 hour ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Speed kills and we have very little of it compared to the top teams in the league.

Here is Packer beat writer Ryan Wood opining on "Speed gap was the biggest difference between 49ers and Packers."

https://21133.mc.tritondigital.com/OMNY_PACKERSCOVERAGE_PODCAST_P/media-session/02106c9b-e54e-4722-ab91-3709a6020185/d/clips/4b5f9d6d-9214-48cb-8455-a73200038129/815878c9-1cc7-407d-8b25-a92b0087c750/89261296-5c66-467a-960d-ab480173606f/audio/direct/t1579559544/Wood_Speed_gap_was_the_biggest_difference_between_49ers_and_Packers.mp3?t=1579559544&in_playlist=fa821510-ef5f-407d-9094-a92b0087c750&utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=fa821510-ef5f-407d-9094-a92b0087c750

[MacReady]

Lol at this speed kills stuff.  It’s mildly relevant.  They out coached us.  It’s as simple as that.  Speed shouldn’t matter when all you do is run the ****ing ball.  It’s a stupid excuse just like injuries were a stupid excuse the year Kaepernick shredded us.  
 

You can say it had an impact and you’re right, but to act like it was THE reason is stupid.  You don’t break rushing records and have the lowest pass attempts to win a playoff game in the past 60 years because your team is fast.  
 

Pettine needs to be fired what thread am I in?

[Mr Bad Example]

20 hours ago, fistfullofbeer said:

I am not too worried about next season. This team easily overachieved this year. If they can improve the ILB position and the WR position, we are going to be significantly better next year. My only real concern is Rodgers taking a step back.

If you look at the Pythagorean wins (just under 10) and their record in 1 score games (6-1) they most likely will regress in those categories, but they could still improve as a team and be 11-5/12-4. 

[Uffdaswede]

https://www.copyright.gov/

http://www.isbn.org/

Good read! It just needs a catchier opening like “Call me Ishmael” or “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times”.

Really good thoughts though. I am similarly worried about the future of this team and find it way more easy to catalog its weaknesses than its strengths.

 I am very puzzled about Rodgers in particular. I see open receivers. Either I don’t understand why they are really NOT open or he is playing some kind of 3D chess while the defense smashes our faces with a checker board. 

4 hours ago, Billy86 said:

My big long rambling post about my thoughts after last night, and after this season:

 

We got walloped yesterday, it was atrocious and brutal to watch... and it was also expected, to be honest. But despite that, I think this season was a big success and if you had asked me in August how I would feel about getting to the Conference game without Rogers re-entering God mode, I don't think I quite would have believed you to be honest. At no point in the last 7-8 years, if not more, would we be able to pull of even an 8-8 season with Rogers playing at the level he did this season, so I think we have a lot to work with.

Last year if you asked where our holes were, the answer was "almost everywhere" - this year, we turned several into strengths (OLB, DB starters, OL to an extent and running game) and perhaps just as importantly, we have some clear and well-defined weaknesses to work on going into the offseason in the areas where this did not materialise:

 

WEAKNESS 1: Pass catchers

[EDIT: See OP for nest 25,000 words]
 

 

[MacReady]

@Uffdaswede, why did you link to copyright.gov?  Am I missing something?

[Uffdaswede]

1 hour ago, Outpost31 said:

@Uffdaswede, why did you link to copyright.gov?  Am I missing something?

Just tweaking Billy for his Brobdingnagian post.

It’s possible he may want to protect his intellectual property after all that effort.