Jump to content

Want To Win A Super Bowl? Don't Pay Your QB.


MacReady

Recommended Posts

2019 - under 10% of the cap.  (Niners under 10%, Chiefs under 5%)
2018 - Patriots 12.21%
2017 - Eagles .91%
2016 - 8.62
2015 - 11.66
2014 - 10.64
2013 - .56
2012 - 6.6
2011 - 11.7
2010 - (Uncapped year)
2009 - 8.3
2008 - 6.8
2007 - 9.2
2006 - 10.4
2005 - 4.9
2004 - 6.3
2003 - 4.4
2002 - 9.6
2001 - .47
2000 - 1.6
1999 - 1.3
1998 - 5.0
1997 - 5.2
1996 - 10.2
1995 - 6.7
1994 - 13.1

1994, Steve Young with the highest cap percentage to EVER win the Super Bowl.  It just so happened the Niners cheated the salary cap that year and actually faced punishment for it. 

Why do people still think that once you get a QB you have to hold onto them when every single year you've got either Brady (who literally takes less than he's worth) or some QB on a rookie contract or some Nick Foles type to win a Super Bowl? 
 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I feel like the only relevant data is from the past 10-15 years, but this is something I've been pondering for awhile. I have a similar theory, but I feel like any real hard conclusions that could be considered a blueprint to success have to wait until we're well clear of the Patriots dynasty. I feel like having the best modern coach ever and the GOAT QB willing to perpetually play at a reasonable contract throw the data off HARD.

However, I think there may be something to this.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, JustAnotherFan said:

Wait? Are you suggesting that KC would be better off not paying Mahomes and letting him walk?

Lol, yeah.  Of course not.  I'm suggesting they trade him.  Can you imagine what you would get if you traded Mahomes right now? 

I'm fully prepared for a veritable avalanche of hate for this opinion, but the Rams paid Goff, the Eagles paid Wentz, the Packers paid Rodgers, the Seahawks paid Wilson, the Steelers paid Roethlisberger...

How many times will a team pay their QB?

Up to 2007 it made sense.  Now?  It doesn't.  Quarterbacks are busting at a lesser and lesser rate.  Hell, the BROWNS have a franchise QB right now.  The BILLS have a franchise QB.  The RAVENS have a franchise QB. 

This is no longer pre-2007 where finding a franchise QB is impossible. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Wait? Are you suggesting that KC would be better off not paying Mahomes and letting him walk?

Hahahaha! No, don't be ridiculous!

You bow down to him and beg and plead for him to play for like $10 million per year.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Classic said:

This has be more of correlation than a causation. Plenty of teams with high paid QBs come close and it comes down to coaching. Your telling me bad QB with a low cap hit should beat out the good QB with high cap hit?

 

Jimmy Garroppolo just beat Aaron Rodgers by attempting less than a dozen passes when Rodgers had his best Championship game of his career.  If you pay your QB less, you can pay the rest of your team more. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Classic said:

This has be more of correlation than a causation.

It's not.  It doesn't happen for the past 30 years if it's more correlation.  NBA teams can work when they pay 2, 3 players all the cap.  The NFL cannot.  You cannot win when you pay 1/53rd of your team 13% of the salary cap.

 

Edited by Outpost31
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its easy to cherry pick data with little context and act like it proves something, when in reality, it doesn't.

If not for said QBs, most of those teams on that list wouldnt have ever made it to the SB in the first place.

How about we look at teams success rates when they dont have a decent QB?     

People can bag on Garroppolo not throwing much all they want....without him, they wouldnt be SB team.   Plain and simple.

Patriots wouldnt have 6 SBs without Brady.    They just got lucky that Tom married an uber rich model and he was willing to take less.

You can still build good teams around highly paid QBs.    Do you have to sacrifice some things?  Sure, but the alternative is not any better.

Id rather have Patrick Mahomes with less talent around the roster than say, Ryan Fitzpatrick and a lot more overall talent.

Bottom line, its hard to make it to the SB, regardless of who the QB is.   Its alot harder to make it WITHOUT one, and thats not even debatable.   

QB contracts are just getting out of hand, IMO.  Thats the biggest issue.  

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Lol, yeah.  Of course not.  I'm suggesting they trade him.  Can you imagine what you would get if you traded Mahomes right now? 

I'm fully prepared for a veritable avalanche of hate for this opinion, but the Rams paid Goff, the Eagles paid Wentz, the Packers paid Rodgers, the Seahawks paid Wilson, the Steelers paid Roethlisberger...

How many times will a team pay their QB?

Up to 2007 it made sense.  Now?  It doesn't.  Quarterbacks are busting at a lesser and lesser rate.  Hell, the BROWNS have a franchise QB right now.  The BILLS have a franchise QB.  The RAVENS have a franchise QB. 

This is no longer pre-2007 where finding a franchise QB is impossible. 

Yeah, KC would get a lot in return for Mahomes right now but none of them are guaranteed to work out. It's no secret that QB's are the most important player on the team and finding those good enough to take you the SB are super hard to find, and if you find them....you keep them. 

I think draft picks often get overrated at times and this is one of those cases, imo.

I'll give you Goff, Wentz, and Wilson (since they were all obviously drafted since the rookie cap) but I don't think it's really fair to use Rodgers, Ben, and other QB's who came into the league prior to 2011. And lets not forgt, it's hard to win in this league and all of them have had success and without them they wouldn't have.

I see where you're getting at here and there may be something to it. But I also think we may need some more time to really find out if it's worth blowing up an entire team and starting over with a rookie QB to build around for 4 years (5th year option). We haven't really had enough data yet. I know Pace is trying it right now with the Bears and so far it's not looking too good.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...