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Super Bowl LIV: 49ers vs Chiefs


onejayhawk

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1 hour ago, Kirill said:

I can't wait to beat the snot out of the 49ers. People are acting like we're going up against the 85 Bears. Give me a break.

My thoughts exactly I think its because KC is a smaller city and people act like its a HS team from a small town vs a large town for some reason.

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2 hours ago, valkrei said:

My thoughts exactly I think its because KC is a smaller city and people act like its a HS team from a small town vs a large town for some reason.

I don't get it. After last season the popular narrative was "Chiefs get an average defense, they'll win the superbowl" but this season we've been perpetually underrated for some reason. You're probably right about the large market bias. The way I see it, they're better at just THREE position groups, and we take the rest.

QB: Chiefs
RB: 49ers
WR: Chiefs
TE: Chiefs
OL: Chiefs

DL: 49ers
LB: 49ers
DB: Chiefs

K: Chiefs
P: Chiefs
KR/PR: Chiefs

More balanced team my ***.

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I've been thinking about this for a while now, obviously. I think this game is back and forth and a nail biter but Mahomes and co. get the ball back with 3 minutes left down 35-31 and he shows the world what he's made of in the big moment.

38-31 Chiefs. Mahomes MVP.

I'm riding that without the help of Fat Dracula and I feel confident.

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10 hours ago, Kirill said:

I don't get it. After last season the popular narrative was "Chiefs get an average defense, they'll win the superbowl" but this season we've been perpetually underrated for some reason. You're probably right about the large market bias. The way I see it, they're better at just THREE position groups, and we take the rest.

QB: Chiefs
RB: 49ers
WR: Chiefs
TE: Chiefs
OL: Chiefs

DL: 49ers
LB: 49ers
DB: Chiefs

K: Chiefs
P: Chiefs
KR/PR: Chiefs

More balanced team my ***.

You would get arguments about several of those. I would call TE and DB a push and give them an edge on the OL. Still, we dominate ST, probably rank about even on bench strength and the Chiefs narrowly win turnover differential. There is an issue that not all the positions are equal weight. Still, the Chiefs have a clear edge on paper, they have the better QB and a better tested team. It's a no-brainer outside biases.

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12 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

You would get arguments about several of those. I would call TE and DB a push and give them an edge on the OL. Still, we dominate ST, probably rank about even on bench strength and the Chiefs narrowly win turnover differential. There is an issue that not all the positions are equal weight. Still, the Chiefs have a clear edge on paper, they have the better QB and a better tested team. It's a no-brainer outside biases.

TE is not  a push.

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Not a big deal until Sunday (lol), but i'm most worried about our Oline protecting Mahomes. SF  has a stout front 7. LT Fisher is avg., Wisniewski has been quite decent but is 30yr. old and a mid-season sub. and Reiter is a 7th.rd. pick at C. This is going to be a problem keeping SF out of our backfield.

And it's another reason why KC needs to draft OL beef in April.

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55 minutes ago, valkrei said:

TE is not  a push.

If it's not, you have to give the edge to Kittle for superior blocking. Kelce and Kittle are both great receiving threats. Kelce may be better after the catch which is why I said push.

In other news, here' an article looking back on the Mahomes pick in 2017.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/super-bowl-2020-revisiting-the-draft-day-trade-for-patrick-mahomes-and-how-the-chiefs-big-gamble-paid-off/

J

 

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I found this stat interesting: The best QB in a SB game doesn't always win. In fact it's just the opposite according to Bill Barnwell, ESPN.

Quote

 

Would you believe that the team with the better quarterback in the Super Bowl actually has a losing record? I went back to Super Bowl I and measured each starting quarterback's adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) during the regular season, and the passer with the better AY/A of the two has won just 20 of the 53 Super Bowls, which is just below 38%. (Adjusted yards per attempt is a better version of passer rating, with touchdowns and interceptions weighted more appropriately.)

Amazingly, the inferior quarterback by AY/A has won each of the past nine Super Bowl matchups. The last quarterback to win a Super Bowl as the superior passer was Drew Brees over Peyton Manning in 2009. The ensuing nine-year run includes paper mismatches such as Joe Flacco vs. Colin Kaepernick, the last embers of Peyton Manning vs. Cam Newton, and Nick Foles vs. Tom Brady, and I mentioned the biggest quarterback mismatches in Super Bowl history as part of my preview.

Garoppolo vs. Mahomes isn't really a mismatch by AY/A. Mahomes averaged 8.9 AY/A this season, while Garoppolo was at 8.3 AY/A in his first full season starting for Shanahan. Garoppolo's AY/A is 92.5% of Mahomes' mark, which is the 14th-closest figure of the 53 Super Bowl matchups. The biggest mismatch was Eli Manning vs. Tom Brady in 2007, and you know how that went.

With a sample of just 53 championship games, we can't really draw many conclusions into why we see this trend. I certainly don't believe teams lose because their quarterback in the Super Bowl is good. At the very least, though, we can say that having the better quarterback on the biggest stage hasn't been enough to single-handedly swing games in their teams' direction.

 

 

Edited by mayanfootball
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1 hour ago, onejayhawk said:

If it's not, you have to give the edge to Kittle for superior blocking. Kelce and Kittle are both great receiving threats. Kelce may be better after the catch which is why I said push.

In other news, here' an article looking back on the Mahomes pick in 2017.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/super-bowl-2020-revisiting-the-draft-day-trade-for-patrick-mahomes-and-how-the-chiefs-big-gamble-paid-off/

J

 

no way bro... Kel tek stats overshadow blocking.

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2 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

If it's not, you have to give the edge to Kittle for superior blocking. Kelce and Kittle are both great receiving threats. Kelce may be better after the catch which is why I said push.

In other news, here' an article looking back on the Mahomes pick in 2017.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/super-bowl-2020-revisiting-the-draft-day-trade-for-patrick-mahomes-and-how-the-chiefs-big-gamble-paid-off/

J

 

I think you need to look at speed in the equation, which I never see anyone do. In this offense, it is a huge bonus. The speed in which Kelce hits his spots to make catches has to cancel out Kittle's ability to block in the grand scheme of things. If the idea is that his blocking creates 8 yard runs, Kelce's ability to get to a spot and catch the ball in 1.5-2 seconds is just as valuable.

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On 1/30/2020 at 6:33 PM, Habbsawce said:

I've been thinking about this for a while now, obviously. I think this game is back and forth and a nail biter but Mahomes and co. get the ball back with 3 minutes left down 35-31 and he shows the world what he's made of in the big moment.

38-31 Chiefs. Mahomes MVP.

I'm riding that without the help of Fat Dracula and I feel confident.

Redo the math. KC would win 38-35

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I'm super nervous about the game. Never felt anything near that and that's probably how it should be. I'm happy that both teams are as healthy as possible, so may the best team win it all and hopefully it will be us. That's a once in a lifetime chance.

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