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WindyCity

The 2020 Free Agency Rumblings Thread

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5 hours ago, WindyCity said:

That isn't impressive.

That just is not as pathetic as the teams previous history. Except those teams actually won a couple playoff games.

Hey, you asked :)

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There may be nothing to it, but I saw that David Njoku might be on the trade block. I would assume if he is, Cleveland will have plenty of suitors, but if the Bears could get him for a 4th this year and a 3rd next year let's say (that's what I think he's worth), would anyone do that?

Edited by The_Romen

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15 minutes ago, The_Romen said:

There may be nothing to it, but I saw that David Njoku might be on the trade block. I would assume if he is, Cleveland will have plenty of suitors, but if the Bears could get him for a 4th this year and a 3rd next year let's say (that's what I think he's worth), would anyone do that?

Don't know.

Hard question...

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1 hour ago, The_Romen said:

There may be nothing to it, but I saw that David Njoku might be on the trade block. I would assume if he is, Cleveland will have plenty of suitors, but if the Bears could get him for a 4th this year and a 3rd next year let's say (that's what I think he's worth), would anyone do that?

He has been injured and not consistently productive.

But he is talented and cheap.

4th this year or a 3rd next year would be what we could offer.

Maybe 2(50) for Njoku and 3(74)

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2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

He has been injured and not consistently productive.

But he is talented and cheap.

4th this year or a 3rd next year would be what we could offer.

Maybe 2(50) for Njoku and 3(74)

I am exploring a new mock with us trading for Njoku with us giving our presumed 4 which is gonna be like 4-41 and swapping our 2nd 5 for Cleveland’s 6 (about 25 spots down). 

Njoku is exactly what we are looking for in a flex TE - he’s got legit speed to stretch the seam and he’s a red zone threat. He’s also gonna be just 24 this year. Trading for him we’d only take on a $1.763M for 2020, and his 2021 option which I assume we’d pick up would only be about $6M or so (final # not yet known). That 2020 price is like 25% of what we’re paying if we go after Hooper or Henry. 

Plus, the trade nets us a legit guy without impacting the comp pick formula which means we could very well recoup what we trade for him in 2021 draft capital. I’m not worried about his health - he broke a wrist but is fully healthy now.

If this deal is available to us I’m all over it. I’d be open to an OJ Howard deal too for all the same reasons. Both have as much or more upside than any of the TEs in this class and we’d be getting them without buying their transition-to-the-league years. 

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10 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I am exploring a new mock with us trading for Njoku with us giving our presumed 4 which is gonna be like 4-41 and swapping our 2nd 5 for Cleveland’s 6 (about 25 spots down). 

Njoku is exactly what we are looking for in a flex TE - he’s got legit speed to stretch the seam and he’s a red zone threat. He’s also gonna be just 24 this year. Trading for him we’d only take on a $1.763M for 2020, and his 2021 option which I assume we’d pick up would only be about $6M or so (final # not yet known). That 2020 price is like 25% of what we’re paying if we go after Hooper or Henry. 

Plus, the trade nets us a legit guy without impacting the comp pick formula which means we could very well recoup what we trade for him in 2021 draft capital. I’m not worried about his health - he broke a wrist but is fully healthy now.

If this deal is available to us I’m all over it. I’d be open to an OJ Howard deal too for all the same reasons. Both have as much or more upside than any of the TEs in this class and we’d be getting them without buying their transition-to-the-league years. 

Howard has been more consistently productive. I expect he would cost more in trade and has less cheap seasons.

I would value Njoku as a late 3. However the Browns wanted to work that value. 4 and change. Pick swap. Higher future pick with some conditions.

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9 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Howard has been more consistently productive. I expect he would cost more in trade and has less cheap seasons.

I would value Njoku as a late 3. However the Browns wanted to work that value. 4 and change. Pick swap. Higher future pick with some conditions.

Their financial cost to us would be almost identical. Howard’s cap hit to us would only be about $250k higher in 2020, and both being 1st rounders taken between picks 11 and 32 their 5th year option prices are exactly the same. 

As to their production I’d agree that Howard has been more consistent (due mostly to Njoku’s injury last year) but he’s also been flat in terms of his output across 3 years. Njoku took a clear step forward from year 1 to 2 before a season 3 essentially lost to injury. Howard has definitely been used as more a deep threat than Njoku. I don’t see either having significantly more value than the other personally, and both would be good fits for what we are seeking. 

I’m thinking Howard may be a little more likely to be on the block since Tampa already has another serviceable TE on the roster in Brate and since Arians has already been more open about his frustrations with Howard, but that’s just a gut feeling. Both would be coming from offenses already set with 2 pro bowl WR on the outside which may make them more expendable to their respective clubs. There are only so many targets to go around. 

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1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

Their financial cost to us would be almost identical. Howard’s cap hit to us would only be about $250k higher in 2020, and both being 1st rounders taken between picks 11 and 32 their 5th year option prices are exactly the same. 

As to their production I’d agree that Howard has been more consistent (due mostly to Njoku’s injury last year) but he’s also been flat in terms of his output across 3 years. Njoku took a clear step forward from year 1 to 2 before a season 3 essentially lost to injury. Howard has definitely been used as more a deep threat than Njoku. I don’t see either having significantly more value than the other personally, and both would be good fits for what we are seeking. 

I’m thinking Howard may be a little more likely to be on the block since Tampa already has another serviceable TE on the roster in Brate and since Arians has already been more open about his frustrations with Howard, but that’s just a gut feeling. Both would be coming from offenses already set with 2 pro bowl WR on the outside which may make them more expendable to their respective clubs. There are only so many targets to go around. 

On that note, why should I be excited if the Bears did deal for Howard? Arians doesn't like him. He didn't produce much pre-Arians. He doesn't put up gaudy stats despite those good receivers. If he doesn't produce in Tampa, why would he here? I'd rather have Njoku, although I wouldn't be thrilled with trading 43 or 50 for him.

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16 hours ago, WindyCity said:

He has been injured and not consistently productive.

But he is talented and cheap.

4th this year or a 3rd next year would be what we could offer.

Maybe 2(50) for Njoku and 3(74)

I would absolutely do this trade but it would depend on how FA shakes out.  If they can sign a decent TE without having to give up any draft picks then even better.

I'm just trying to understand why Browns would want to give up on Njoku  already after firing the inept Freddy Kitchens.  If I'm the Browns then I'd be willing to see how Njouku does in Stefanski's offense before trading him away for peanuts.

It's more likely Howard gets dealt IMO.

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1 hour ago, beardown3231 said:

On that note, why should I be excited if the Bears did deal for Howard? Arians doesn't like him. He didn't produce much pre-Arians. He doesn't put up gaudy stats despite those good receivers. If he doesn't produce in Tampa, why would he here? I'd rather have Njoku, although I wouldn't be thrilled with trading 43 or 50 for him.

The biggest impediment to Howard’s production appears to be usage, at least based on a quick look at the stats. 

Yards/Target

Howard: 10.4

Njoku: 6.7

Ertz: 7.5

Kelce: 9.0

Kittle: 9.6

 

Catch percentage (catches/targets)

Howard: 67.1%

Njoku: 58.9%

Ertz: 68.6%

Kelce: 70.9%

Kittle: 70.6%
 

I think the lessened volume of targets to Howard is making the yards/target somewhat misleading for Howard (and maybe Njoku too) but when he’s been targeted he’s been really effective. A more appropriate analysis (the kind Pace has the resources and time to do) would better tell the story why he’s targeted so infrequently given his absurd efficiency when the ball comes his way (Is he just not getting open that often? Is he just frequently the 3rd or 4th option due to play design? How much is driven by game situation? Does his QB have radar lock elsewhere? etc.). The catch % is there with the top TE in the game and makes me think Howard isn’t just running seam routes, and if he is then he is criminally underutilized.

Howard averages 47 targets a season through 3 years. He’d double that volume here if not more so in a Kelce/Ertz role. With 94 targets at his career catch rate and even 85% of his career rate of efficiency per target he’s looking at 63 catches and 831 yards, so if a film review finds he’s open frequently and not getting the ball then by all means we should be looking to acquire Howard ASAP. At $1.9M for 2020 and approximately $6M for 2020 before a 2nd deal would be necessary that is an extraordinary value worthy of a significant draft pick. If the film even remotely matches the stats I’d trade 2-50 to TB for Howard and a later pick in return in the blink of an eye. There’s not a rookie TE we can draft this year that gives us that kind of 2020 impact. It’s not a move without risk by any stretch but the plan is to win in 2020, and this would be a bold move in that direction. It’d be a move for what Nagy wants for his offense and what Mitch needs to bolster his chances for success. Pace has drawn clear lines his entire tenure as GM that he will not shy away from bold moves to get potential impact players  with all-world athletic upside. With no 1st round pick again this year this kind of move may be the biggest swing he can take short of a wholesale remake at QB. 

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Howard is used as more of a downfield target than guys like Kittle and Kelce who often get the ball in space and accumulate RAC yards. He's used more often as an extra blocker because Tampa likes to push the ball downfield. He also shares targets with a pretty deep receiver group. He's a good candidate for a rebound if he can find an increased role outside of Tampa.

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In 2018 Burton had more RECEPTIONS than Howard has ever had TARGETS. He has been criminally under-utilized to me. But he is also a more proven player than Burton was prior to Chicago signing him IMO. He improves the run game and the passing game, he'd be the 3rd option here at worst and with Montgomery not showing a ton as a receiving RB he might be the safety net here as well. 

 

Shaheen is a bust, Burton is frail and healing like a 60-year-old (he's closer to a WR than traditional TE anyway), and we have at-best depth guys currently there. Holtz and Howard could be a good physical duo in 2 TE sets, or with Holtz as a FB. I think Montgomery and Cohen will thank Pace for making a move like that. 

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OT DJ Humphries re-signs with Cardinals for 3/45, 30 guaranteed

The tackle market is crazy. Even more reason to draft one in a deep class.

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50 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

Is it possible that if Howard was really good, he'd be getting more targets?

He has always been on a stacked offense, which lowers his targets.

Arians has never really featured a TE.

But I agree that there is something off about his usage and targets considering what he produces per catch.

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