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TCMD 2020 GB Packer WAR ROOM


squire12

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2 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Lacy learned all that just fine. Not too difficult for a RB.

Lacy struggled with weight, conditioning and asthma - but most of the RBs that people are mocking aren't built like Eddie and they will struggle in pass pro just like Aaron Jones did. Monty struggled with it too, in part because he was more of a WR in college. 2nd rounder Jonathan Franklin's career got wiped out on a kick return, Starks struggled with pass pro and couldn't get on the same page as AR, DuJuan Harris had issues too. Christine Michael was dumber than a post and couldn't learn the offense.

The main point here is that the "concept" of just plugging in another RB isn't anything more than a concept. The reality is that Aaron Jones isn't so easily replaced when you take football reality in to consideration. Every player looks good in the run up to the draft, but making the leap to the pro's and delivering consistent production in year 1 and 2 just isn't a given for a variety of reasons.

Going into 2020, Aaron Jones would be refining his game at Level 5, while a rookie RB takes the offense back to square one and limits the growth of the MLF offense.  We need a DL or 2 added, no arguments there - I'm just not happy with losing Jones to achieve that goal when there are other options available

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16 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Lacy struggled with weight, conditioning and asthma - but most of the RBs that people are mocking aren't built like Eddie and they will struggle in pass pro just like Aaron Jones did. Monty struggled with it too, in part because he was more of a WR in college. 2nd rounder Jonathan Franklin's career got wiped out on a kick return, Starks struggled with pass pro and couldn't get on the same page as AR, DuJuan Harris had issues too. Christine Michael was dumber than a post and couldn't learn the offense.

The main point here is that the "concept" of just plugging in another RB isn't anything more than a concept. The reality is that Aaron Jones isn't so easily replaced when you take football reality in to consideration. Every player looks good in the run up to the draft, but making the leap to the pro's and delivering consistent production in year 1 and 2 just isn't a given for a variety of reasons.

Going into 2020, Aaron Jones would be refining his game at Level 5, while a rookie RB takes the offense back to square one and limits the growth of the MLF offense.  We need a DL or 2 added, no arguments there - I'm just not happy with losing Jones to achieve that goal when there are other options available

We'll agree to disagree. Most of the RBs you listed were Band-Aids, not a true franchise back. When you invest a decent pick in a back, you should plug and play. Doesn't mean they'll be good as that's the inherent risk of any rookie, however it's not a difficult position to pickup in the pros. Probably the easiest position to transition to.

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5 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

When you invest a decent pick in a back, you should plug and play

Agree to disagree ? Hey - I'm just getting warmed up !  :)

The Packers invested a 2nd in Lacy and he struggled to stay on the field, playing a full 16 game season once in his 5 years in GB.
Eddie delivered 750, 360 and 179 yards in his last 3 seasons.
The Packers invested a 2nd in Franklin and he struggled early and then got wiped out to career-ending injury.
So in the Packers case, you could say that 50% of the 2nd round RBs worked out

Yes, its the easiest position to make an early contribution, but history & reality paints a different picture than the theory you are espousing
Here's the draft list of recent RB's, littered with injuries and less- than- hoped- for production from Gordon, Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Derrius Guice, Rashad Penny
Looks to be about a 60% hit rate for top RB picks working out on other teams too.

https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/rb

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1 minute ago, Shanedorf said:

Agree to disagree ? Hey - I'm just getting warmed up !  :)

The Packers invested a 2nd in Lacy and he struggled to stay on the field, playing a full 16 game season once in his 5 years in GB.
Eddie delivered 750, 360 and 179 yards in his last 3 seasons.
The Packers invested a 2nd in Franklin and he struggled early and then got wiped out to career-ending injury.
So in the Packers case, you could say that 50% of the 2nd round RBs worked out

Yes, its the easiest position to make an early contribution, but history & reality paints a different picture than the theory you are espousing
Here's the draft list of recent RB's, littered with injuries and less- than- hoped- for production from Gordon, Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Derrius Guice, Rashad Penny
Looks to be about a 60% hit rate for top RB picks working out on other teams too.

https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/rb

Lacy won OROY as a rook. That makes it a worthwhile pick for me.

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Green Bay Packers announce a contract extension for Kenny Clark

1477 - Kenny Clark - 34DT

Contract details below.  

2020 Savings: $4,870,000
2021 Savings: -$6,195,000
Year Player Name Pos Exp PFF Grade Vet. Min. Base Salary Base Gtd. Signing Bonus Roster Bonus Workout Bonus Cap Number Contract Terms
2020 Kenny Clark 34DT 4 0.829 820000 820000   2000000     2820000 5 yr / $41,215,000
2021 Kenny Clark 34DT 5 0.829 835000 4250000   2000000     6250000  
2022 Kenny Clark 34DT 6 0.829 850000 6125000   2000000     8125000  
2023 Kenny Clark 34DT 7 0.829 990000 8500000   2000000     10500000  
2024 Kenny Clark 34DT 8 0.829 1005000 11520000   2000000     13520000  
                         
                         
          Sum 31215000 0 10000000 0 0 41215000  
          Avg. 6243000   2000000     8243000  
Edited by squire12
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Anyone want to offer some thoughts on the idea of using the non-exclusive franchise tag on Bryan Bulaga

The cost would be $10,342,500

His expected APY (average per year salary) with an expected 2 year contract length is $7,956,810

Deadline to make use the tag is Friday Feb 7th at 11pm EASTERN

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Keep in mind, I really suck at this TCMD

From a positional spending POV, GB is at # 10* in the league for OL spending.  Adding $10.3M  puts them at # 4 for 2020
That's not the worst use of cap space if you're trying to go on a run -  and Bryan is still playing at a high level

Bulaga and his agent aren't going to be all that happy about it - especially since they can get more cash and a longer deal in FA
A 2 year deal gives you a bit more 2020 cap space in exchange for assuming some of the injury risk and you can probably spread some bonus into a 3rd year

However, if you use that tag -  then both OTs are FA's in March of 2021 and that's a tight - sphincter place to be when you're going for it

 

* Lane Taylor $$ backed out of the OL number

Edited by Shanedorf
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11 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Keep in mind, I really suck at this TCMD

From a positional spending POV, GB is at # 10* in the league for OL spending.  Adding $10.3M  puts them at # 4 for 2020
That's not the worst use of cap space if you're trying to go on a run -  and Bryan is still playing at a high level

Bulaga and his agent aren't going to be all that happy about it - especially since they can get more cash and a longer deal in FA
A 2 year deal gives you a bit more 2020 cap space in exchange for assuming some of the injury risk and you can probably spread some bonus into a 3rd year

However, if you use that tag -  then both OTs are FA's in March of 2021 and that's a tight - sphincter place to be when you're going for it

 

* Lane Taylor $$ backed out of the OL number

Bahktiari will be extended once the Clark extension is processed by the league office.  

 

Tagging Bulaga ensures he returns to GB.   1 year deal.  Not really concerned if Bulaga is pissed about it.  He will be getting $10.3M and can sign another deal next season.

Plan is to draft an OT at some point, but bringing Bulaga back means that can be anywhere in the first 4 rounds vs having to go OT really early.

Based on the APY numbers for Bulaga, his was a 2 year deal (max of 2 years) for an average of $7.98M.   Best I could do with the formulas for salary increases per year (they are limited to a min/max percent increase per year) was a 2020 cap hit of $5M and then 2021 of $11M.   That was just the bare minimum to meet his minimum contract expectation.  

We also need to stay under the cap for 2021.  So shoving $11M into 2021 would have affected that as well.  Limiting the ability to build contracts that escalate into future years.

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Just now, squire12 said:

and can sign another deal next season.

Can GB use the same tag again, or are there escalators ?

 

1 minute ago, squire12 said:

Plan is to draft an OT at some point, but bringing Bulaga back means that can be anywhere in the first 4 rounds vs having to go OT really early.

^ that's smart strategy

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13 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

Can GB use the same tag again, or are there escalators ?

 

^ that's smart strategy

GB could, assuming bulaga is a  GB free agent next year.   This mock does not carry players forward to new teams (related to transactions that take place within this mock)

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Green Bay announces a contract extension for David Bahktiari

0650 - David Bakhtiari - LT

Contract details below

2020 Savings: $5,255,000
2021 Savings: -$11,200,000

Year Player Name Pos Exp PFF Grade Vet. Min. Base Salary Base Gtd. Signing Bonus Roster Bonus Workout Bonus Cap Number Contract Terms
2020 David Bakhtiari LT 7 0.779 945000 945000   8000000     8945000 5 yr / $78,233,000
2021 David Bakhtiari LT 8 0.779 960000 6400000   4800000     11200000  
2022 David Bakhtiari LT 9 0.779 975000 9760000   4800000     14560000  
2023 David Bakhtiari LT 10 0.779 1090000 14128000   4800000     18928000  
2024 David Bakhtiari LT 11 0.779 1105000 19800000   4800000     24600000  
                         
                         
          Sum 51033000 0 27200000 0 0 78233000  
          Avg. 10206600   5440000     15646600  
                         
          2020 Savings: 5255000            
          2021 Savings: -11200000            

 

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On 1/20/2020 at 9:32 AM, squire12 said:

Round 1 Free Agent Bidding

  • Deadline to have contracts created - Sat, Feb. 8th @ 9pm

  • FA Bidding Results - Sat, Feb 8th @ 11pm

    • Note:  1st round announcement may exceed 11pm

Phase 2

  • Tender Offer Sheet Contract(s)

    • Deadline to have offer sheet bids completed - Mon, Feb 10th @ 9pm

    • Match or Decline - Wed, Feb 12th @ 10pm.

  • GM’s can submit extensions to tagged players after Match/Decline deadline.

  • Can release or trade tagged or tendered players for less value after deadline.

Deadline to submit contract offers to FA in first round of free agency is tonight.  If you have thoughts, post or PM

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I stole this from another thread - these are Cadmus' suggestions for FA WRs

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"I'd love Ebron and Robby as much as the next guy, but I'm not sure how realistic either or both are.
What Gute really needs to do is target at least 1-2 high-upside, low risk fliers at WR and then supplement with the draft
(if we can get a stud FA awesome-- I'm just saying this needs to be the bare minimum in terms of FA moves at WR).

UFAs 

Rashard Higgins. Tajae Sharpe 

Both have been buried on depth charts and/or lost in anemic passing offenses.

I'd also watch the following RFAs: 

Tim Patrick , David Moore , Keelan Cole 

 

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