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jetskid007

2020 New York Jets Offseason version 2.0: Post-Combine

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34 minutes ago, jetskid007 said:

You can cook it however you want, I just think the bust potential with Thomas is higher than the rest of the top 4 lineman, and we're starting to see that NFL people are thinking the same (re: Brugler, Jeremiah). As I wrote in my report, there's a lot of Jawaan Taylor/Cam Robinson/Greg Robinson going on there, which scares me. If push came to shove I'd still take him, but it would be like getting married to the girlfriend that's smoking hot and has her moments but clearly has some emotional/mental red flags that you hope get resolved RE: maturity of being married or via therapy lol. 

Douglas doesn't take me as a guy who really cares whether you play G/T; I think he'll opt to take the best offensive lineman, guys who can change the way your scheme works and how defenses are forced to game plan against you, and in this case its Wirfs regardless if he's playing LT, RT, or LG. Sure, you can always build from the outside-in while investing less on the interior guys/asking them to do less, but when you have a player to the caliber of Nelson/Martin, your playbook expands exponentially. Ideally you'd like that guy as a left tackle, but I fear that player is Mekhi Becton/he won't be available when we pick. 

I agree with this. Ive always been big on drafting the best talented OLineman and figure it out later. OTs are harder to do that with bc you need them a bit longer and agile than a guy you can just move to OG. But I am pro moving OTs to OG if they're the best talent on the board and you think they can play there and might struggle at OT in the NFL. 

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I really like Becton.  I think he might have the highest ceiling out of all of these guys.  When I watched his tape this is what i saw.  I saw him make certain snaps look insanely easy.  He can effortlessly move people at times, and he moves like a guy 30-40 pounds lighter.  BUT, then there are other snaps where he looks lost or just flat out misses his guy.  Those aren't super often but it happens more than you like.  If he can even erase just some of those he could be a massive difference maker.  I am thinking like a Trent Brown type impact in the run game with better movement skills and better in with pass pro.  Wondering if you saw the same.  

 

Realistically I'd be happy with any of the top 4 OT's, and I do agree on the gap closing between RT and LT, i think it has gone from LT being quite a bit more valued to there being a very small difference between the 2 with LT taking a slight edge in value.  

 

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1 hour ago, rampantjet said:

Realistically I'd be happy with any of the top 4 OT's, and I do agree on the gap closing between RT and LT, i think it has gone from LT being quite a bit more valued to there being a very small difference between the 2 with LT taking a slight edge in value.  

It used to be LT >>>> LG >> C = RT >> RG

Now I'd argue its LT > RT > LG = RG > C

 

The game of football has always been a zig-zag. I honestly think the Giants "nascar" package from 2007 is what propelled both offenses and defenses to reconsider how they constructed their lines. It used to be so simple: the best/fastest pass rusher lined up at the 7-tech outside of the LT (the most athletic on the line), the quickest/most talented interior lineman would line up at the 3/B gap between the LT-LG (which is why LGs were so important and usually needed to be 2nd most talented player), then the 1-tech (a nose tackle or DT whose primary objective was to take up blockers) were usually subject to the most double-teams by the C and RG, but C's carried more importance as they directed the OL, and the RT was typically in charge of the strong-side DE or 5-tech DE but had help from the TE in pass protection for the most part. The Giants sought to expose mismatches with that package, then we saw more teams copying by moving their top pass rusher over the RT to expose teams weaknesses since. The advances in the exotic blitz packages (large credit to Rex, as he had to be more creative with the Jets than he was in BAL as they had established edge rushers and we didn't). This was also around the same time when teams were countering the defensive mismatches with the quick passing game, which resulted in the NFL seeking more interior DL talent. Hence, the past 6-8 years have been booming with truly elite multi-purpose interior DLineman, as college programs are beefing up would-be LBs/DEs into DTs (and former DBs into LBs), which has allowed teams to scrap the traditional "1-tech, 3-tech, 5-tech" usage by lining up defenders all over the place. The "beautiful chaos" on defense has resulted in the G position becoming that much more important - and now I'd say the difference between LG and RG is null. Center obviously has its importances, but now it's a more mental position and the most important function is blitz pickup, and the Gs are the ones who have to take on the most work- sometimes initiating block contract 2 to 3 players on a single play. IMO you can get away with having a smart center who is very limited talent in talent if you have really good guards, whereas I don't think having a great center makes up for a trash guard they way it used to.

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3 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

Why would Henry Anderson restructure, just to get traded?

Why wouldn't he? The Jets give him a check for $3.5 million now in the form of a signing bonus, and he still makes his $3.5 million in game checks regardless what happens since it is guaranteed. From his perspective its money in his pocket regardless; maybe he wouldn't want to get traded but imagine if there was some slip up and he tested positive for something? His guarantees void and then the Jets can cut him for nothing. As for the team acquiring him, they become more comfortable taking on his contract - i.e. instead of paying him $7 million, they only pay $3.5 and the Jets pay the rest. 

Same could happen with Le'Veon. 

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The stem and quick slants in general have been missing since Brandon Marshall. Need more guys who can run it like Jennings. Easy completion for the QB. DT did his best, but doesn’t have the explosion/flexibility he once had. Crowder is smooth but lacks the hips. In-breaking routes really not part of Robby’s game.

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22 minutes ago, jetskid007 said:

The stem and quick slants in general have been missing since Brandon Marshall. Need more guys who can run it like Jennings. Easy completion for the QB. DT did his best, but doesn’t have the explosion/flexibility he once had. Crowder is smooth but lacks the hips. In-breaking routes really not part of Robby’s game.

Ya really hard for a defender to cover this. Especially with his size. bc just lobbing it up to him and a back shoulder throw to him with his length and strength are always on the table for a CB to have to worry about as well.

 

If he can interview well (put his off the field issues behind him) and show he has a high character... he is someone who I would really like at 48. I have to see that to move him up there though. On skill alone he's a 1st rounder. But we know just skill is a small portion of the game.

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Mock updated. Again, reflection of what I think will happen. The major changes: 

  • The biggest story since Joe Douglas has been here is beefing up the OL, and I think he will accomplish that by adding Graham Glasgow and Connor McGovern in free agency and Jedrick Wills and Danny Pinter in the draft. The Jets want to come away with 2 bonafide starters in free agency, and I think one of them will absolutely be Glasgow, who they love. They would like to pair him with Scherff, who gets franchised, or Thuney, but he signs elsewhere. That's what brings them to settle for McGovern, a very good free agent in his own right. I don't think the Jets are as high on Conklin as has been reported... he's seeking upwards of $18 million per year and I don't think Douglas has any interest in paying that. I wouldn't rule out the Jets potentially signing another tackle in free agency primarily as competition/to play the swing role. Ultimately, there will be a competition for the starting 5, but I'd put my money on a Wills/Glasgow/McGovern/Winters/Edoga combo. For what it's worth, I think Becton and Wirfs go in the top 10, and the Jets make the decision to trade down with IND knowing they will certainly get either Wills or Thomas at 13. Personally, I would take Andrew Thomas, but for now I'll put in Wills. That could change depending on what information comes out. Danny Pinter is a dart-throw, but he's the kind of under-the-radar OL who I think Joe Douglas will take in round 3. Identifying OL prospects are his bread-and-butter, so he's going to take whoever he loves in the 3rd even if its perceived as a little bit of a reach by the media. 
  • The Jets want to add one more difference-maker on defense, either at CB or EDGE. Remember, despite it being "illegal" tampering season is in full-effect, and the Jets will have a good idea where a lot of their targets are likely headed well before the start of free agency. I think most of the Jets top free agent targets will be headed elsewhere for a combination of reasons, and with that, I think Joe will cave and trade for EDGE Matthew Judon. Personally, I would not do this; I'd stick with re-signing Jenkins and try to improve the unit through the draft, but I get the sense Douglas will want to make his stamp, and considering that Judon was his top FA target outside of Scherff/Thuney who will not be coming, I think he will have a slight desperation moment and make the trade. Many are wondering why Judon would even be on the market, which I agree with, but I think ultimately this will be part of a 3 team switch with Baltimore trading their 1st and TE Hayden Hurst to Jacksonville for DE Yannick Ngakou. I also expect that Dante Fowler gets franchise tagged, eliminating him as an option in FA. I see Bradlee Anae falling to the 4th, but that may be unrealistic. Even so, I would expect someone like he or Alton Robinson there in round 4. 
  • They're not going to sign Judon to a big deal and sign a top-tier CB, so I have them adding guys familiar to Joe and the front office in CBs Jimmy Smith and Ronald Darby. I think all the top options are going to be off the board anyway, and their last hope will be Trae Waynes, who opts to sign elsewhere. With Brian Poole re-signed and the Jets investing a 3rd rounder in Bryce Hall, you're probably looking at an all-out competition for the perimeter corner spots. 
  • I think the Jets really want Robby Anderson back, but they're going to set a deadline for themselves so they don't lose out on other options. Everything I've heard is that they'll pursue Breshad Perriman aggressively to replace Robby, who I believe signs with the Eagles. I've come away from the combine with a clear understanding that the Jets want speedy route-runners at WR and are far less concerned with size. I also think Gase will have final say on which WRs the Jets take, given that its his specialty (moreso than QB). KJ Hamler may not even win a starting job this year, but Gase will love him for the same reasons he was all over Mecole Hardman, seeing him as a guy who is simply too fast and too good of a route runner for opposing defenses to press at the line despite his stature. The Jets were linked to John Hightower and James Proche at the senior bowl, and are natural fits for the offense as well. My guess is the Jets will ultimately be without Quincy Enunwa come Week 1 and Josh Doctson/Braxton Berrios/Vyncint Smith could be fighting for the last receiver spots. 
  • Some smaller signings that don't make a lot of sense but I have seen links to the Jets are TE Darren Fells and S Clayton Geathers. Fells would come in and compete for that 3rd TE spot and Geathers would do the same for the 3rd safety spot. 
  • Odds and ends: there are a lot of links between Douglas and the TCU program, so won't be surprised to see more connections between guys like WR Reagor (who I have going earlier) and CB Gladney, but for this exercise I have them selecting RB Jet Anderson in the 5th; he's a very good fit for the outside-zone blocking scheme... TE Jacob Breeland and LB Mykal Walker are just BPA guys who the Jets have been linked to as well. 

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That’s a very shaky right side of the line with Winters and Edoga.

And I don’t see Perriman (often injured), Hamler and a couple mid late round flyers budging the needle much for us at WR. It in fact is arguably downgrading the group.

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Love the effort and detail you put into your mocks. Personally I wouldn’t like this to be quite honest, don’t think we would need to add 1 more piece to the OL and we need more WR help

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9 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

That’s a very shaky right side of the line with Winters and Edoga.

And I don’t see Perriman (often injured), Hamler and a couple mid late round flyers budging the needle much for us at WR. It in fact is arguably downgrading the group.

I’ll admit that fantasyland would seem a lot more pleasant, but it’s just not realistic. Adding 4 new players with significant monetary and draft capital investments is pretty significant in it of itself. 

As for receiver group assessment as a whole, I’m not sure what you’re drinking but I’d love to have some. 

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7 hours ago, Dr.O said:

Love the effort and detail you put into your mocks. Personally I wouldn’t like this to be quite honest, don’t think we would need to add 1 more piece to the OL and we need more WR help

Thanks for your appreciation. As I continue to preach, the team isn’t going to solve every issue in one offseason. In this scenario they’re going to see how Crowder, Enunwa, Perriman, Hamler, Hightower, Proche, etc work out. You have to keep in mind that they’re expecting Enunwa back and his re-evaluation isn’t until potentially May, meaning they’re kind of stuck with him. Maybe it’s not the names Jets fans want to see because there’s no “prototypical #1” who is 6’0, 200+ lbs., but replacing Robby/DT with Perriman/Hamler/Hightower/Proche is very significant... Next offseason will be a historic FA class for WRs if they’re not impressed with the development of their young guys at this point next year.

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FWIW, my top 12: 

  1. CIN - QB Burrow 
  2. WAS - DE Young 
  3. LAC* - QB Tagovailoa 
  4. MIA* - QB Herbert
  5. NYG* - LB Simmons 
  6. DET* - CB Okudah
  7. CAR - DL Brown  
  8. ARI - OT Becton 
  9. JAX - CB Henderson 
  10. CLE - OL Wirfs 
  11. IND* - WR Lamb 
  12. OAK - WR Jeudy 
  13. NYJ* - OL Wills 

* I’m all in on Tua to LAC and Herbert to MIA
* NYG can very well take an OL, but when you consider the kind of talent Simmons is (and Gettleman’s infatuation with players of his ilk) and that Gettleman has never selected an OL in round 1. 
* CAR is a wildcard when it comes to possibly taking an OL. 
* JAX is the most intriguing scenario... They’re tanking and will truly select who they believe to be the BPA. Can it be an OL? I’m not so sure... unless they’re totally giving up on Cam Robinson, Jawaan Taylor, Andrew Norwell, and A.J. Cann... where they playing a first round tackle?
* Two scenarios can play out at 11: either Colts trade up to jump Raiders for Love or for the receiver they want. There is a strong relationship between the teams, so if the Jets are confident they can move down a few spots and still get their guy, I think they’ll do it... this scenario Colts go WR and Jordan Love goes to TB at 14.
* I think there will be significant interest from teams to move up to 13/14 for WR Henry Ruggs, but the Jets/Bucs aren’t prepared to move down again. 

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2 hours ago, jetskid007 said:

I’ll admit that fantasyland would seem a lot more pleasant, but it’s just not realistic. Adding 4 new players with significant monetary and draft capital investments is pretty significant in it of itself. 

As for receiver group assessment as a whole, I’m not sure what you’re drinking but I’d love to have some. 

The OL I think is realistic. I have Lewis resigned in mine playing RG rather than Winters and Edoga at RT. But you also used a more valuable pick on OL than I did. I’d rather see us go WR there than a backup OLineman. I just see it as we are losing DT and Robby 2 of our 3 main WRs. Any replacing them with Perriman (like I said who’s often injured) so he can’t be relied on regularly. And Hamler who’s a 6 inch shorter Robby. Then some flyers in the mid later rounds. Guys who I’m not too high on. So I see it as a downgrade.

 

For me... if we’re going OT and ignoring WR at 11 than our 2nd and for sure 1 of our 3rds (preferably the NYGs 3rd) should be used on WR. Not use none our our 3rds on a WR that would maybe start rather than a backup OLinrman and backup edge.

 

All this being said... it would be boring if we all had the same opinion on an ideal offseason

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On 3/4/2020 at 1:15 PM, jetskid007 said:

FWIW, my top 12: 

  1. CIN - QB Burrow 
  2. WAS - DE Young 
  3. LAC* - QB Tagovailoa 
  4. MIA* - QB Herbert
  5. NYG* - LB Simmons 
  6. DET* - CB Okudah
  7. CAR - DL Brown  
  8. ARI - OT Becton 
  9. JAX - CB Henderson 
  10. CLE - OL Wirfs 
  11. IND* - WR Lamb 
  12. OAK - WR Jeudy 
  13. NYJ* - OL Wills 

* I’m all in on Tua to LAC and Herbert to MIA
* NYG can very well take an OL, but when you consider the kind of talent Simmons is (and Gettleman’s infatuation with players of his ilk) and that Gettleman has never selected an OL in round 1. 
* CAR is a wildcard when it comes to possibly taking an OL. 
* JAX is the most intriguing scenario... They’re tanking and will truly select who they believe to be the BPA. Can it be an OL? I’m not so sure... unless they’re totally giving up on Cam Robinson, Jawaan Taylor, Andrew Norwell, and A.J. Cann... where they playing a first round tackle?
* Two scenarios can play out at 11: either Colts trade up to jump Raiders for Love or for the receiver they want. There is a strong relationship between the teams, so if the Jets are confident they can move down a few spots and still get their guy, I think they’ll do it... this scenario Colts go WR and Jordan Love goes to TB at 14.
* I think there will be significant interest from teams to move up to 13/14 for WR Henry Ruggs, but the Jets/Bucs aren’t prepared to move down again. 

I’d love to get Willis and I assume a3rd for the 11 pick. Personally I’d prefer Thomas but at this point I’ll trust JD’s decision. The 2nd I’d use on a WR. I‘D love for Higgins to drop but that’s unrealistic, still one of Aiyuk, Mims,  Hamler or DPJ  should still be available. In the 3rd I’d go for an IOL (Hennessy, Muti, D Williams would be my choices), another WR (Gandy-Golden, Hightower, j Reed, ,G. Davis) and, probably with the Giants pick, an edge (Anae, Highsmith, Uche ) 

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