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Leisher's Offseason thougts. 1/24/20


jleisher

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Just my thoughts on the offseason, draft needs and free agency.  This can also explain the logic behind some of my mocks.  Yeah, I also just do what the hell type of mocks to shake up the thinking in the forum.  Sometimes we get locked into what we want to see, so I shake it up to give different looks.  

Coaching:  Yeah, I would have liked to see Pettine let go.  Was looking at Wade Phillips as his replacement, but read he was going to Cleveland.  So, thought a good, young, smart college DC would be a good start to stop the new offenses in the NFL.  Some seem to think the NFL and college offenses are similar, what better why to stop that but to bring in a college DC.  Leonhard is one of my favorites.  Marvin Lewis is another thought, has that old Ravens defensive mind set.

Needs, Draft and Free Agency:  

OL:  

75 - T Bryan Bulaga Bulaga   Yes, Bulaga had a solid season and played pretty much injury free.  What are the odds that he repeats that?  IMO, slim.  With it probably going to cost them about $12-$14m per year to resign him, and that might be to much for a player with his injury history.  So, unless he comes back at a very team friendly deal, then I wouldn't be upset with the Packers moving on.

63 - C Corey Linsley Linsley   Solid center, no question about that.  However, with Patrick being resigned for much less, means that Linsley could be a Cap cut, saves $8.5m.  Packers want to be more physical up front, Patrick offers that as well.  I would have no problem moving on from Linsley for cap space.

65 - G Lane TaylorTaylor  Save $4.1m in cap space by cutting him, or pay him that $ as a G backup.  IMO, move on.

68 - T Jared Veldheer Veldheer   Low cost back up RT, that played well when called upon.  Resigning him and moving on from Bulaga would only make sense if the Packers draft a T high in the draft.

2020 OL could be BAK (LT), Jenkins (LG), Patrick (C), Turner (RG), Veldheer (RT)

WR:

 13 - WR Allen LazardLazard, came out of nowhere to be the #2 WR, but his he a true #2?  No!  IMO, #3 or #4 at best.  ERFA, Packers will resign him.

81 - WR Geronimo AllisonAllison, had a down year.  He also is a UFA.  Packers should move on from Allison.

11 - WR Ryan GrantGrant, for whatever reason the Packers kept him around all year, but was never active for the games.  He's an UFA, I say move on, but Packers must see something, so don't be surprised he's back at a low cost deal.

16 - WR Jake KumerowKumerow, was very disappointed in his lack of performance.  ERFA that I could go either way on, but I vote we move on.

2020 WR could be Adams, MVS, ESB and Lazard.  I don't know much about the WR signed from the CFL.  Need to sign a solid #2 and draft a WR that is #3 with #2 possibilities.

TE:

80 - TE Jimmy GrahamGraham, time Packers move on and save $8m in cap space.  

89 - TE Marcedes LewisLewis, UFA.  I would have no problem with a 1yr low cost contract.85 - TE Robert TonyanTonyan, I has a lot of high hopes for him this past season.  Injuries slowed him down.  ERFA I would bring back for 1 year.

Whether it's the talent or lack there of, but Rodgers seems to value WR more the TE's.  Does it pay to go out and sign a big $ FA?  No, IMO.  I think drafting a TE is a better deal.

2020 TE's could be Sternberger, Tonyan and Lewis with a possible draft pick or low cost veteran.

ILB:

50 - LB Blake MartinezMartinez, you either love him or hate him at ILB for the Packers.  I thought the same with Martinez coming our as I do with Evan Weaver this year.  I like him, but not at $14m plus a year.  Sadly I say, move on.

93 - LB B.J. GoodsonGoodson, average player that had some good moments and then had his bad ones.  IMO, let him go as an UFA.

Many are saying bring Martinez back, he knows Pettine's scheme.  Well, not sure Pettine is around after 2020, so why hold back any type of improvement?  I would like to see the Packers bring in 2 top ILB though FA's.  

2020 ILB could be Burks and Summers.  Look for 2 ILB signed by FA.

DE:

95 - DL Tyler LancasterLancaster is the only DL free agent, he's a ERFA.  This man beat out Adams and Keke to start at DE.  He's more of a NT back up IMO.  Packers should bring his back.

DL, Clark is the only sure thing.  If I was in charge, I would hold off until next year to resign Clark.  I want to see a whole season of solid production.  This year started and end well, but fell off the production in the middle.  Here again, I would sign a #1 DL in free agency and 1 mid level DL, someone like Beau Allen to help against the run.

2020 DL could be Lowry, Clark, Lancaster, needs improvement.

Packers other free agents:

2019-Crosby-Mason-hsCrosby, UFA.  Resign 2yrs max.

32 - RB Tyler ErvinErvin, UFA.  Resign 2yrs max.

51 - LB Kyler FackrellFackrell, UFA.  Could go either way on him, not at big $.

79 - T John LeglueLeglue, ERFA.  Couldn't care a less.

25 - S Will RedmondRedmond, ERFA.  Resign.

39 - CB Chandon SullivanSullivan, ERFA.  Resign.

38 - CB Tramon WilliamsTWill, UFA.  Thanks for your time and service, but we move on.

46 - FB Malcolm JohnsonJohnson, ERFA.  Again, couldn't care a less. 

78 - T Jason SpriggsSpriggs, UFA.  Pass

35 - S Ibraheim CampbellCampbell, UFA.  Low cost only.

Free Agent needs, #1) ILB, #2) DE, #3) WR, #4) TE, #5) OL

Draft needs, #1) OL, #2) WR, #3) TE, #4) DE, #5) ILB

 

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I agree on Lancaster. He's carved out a niche in this defense, but if we had an explosive player to play next to Clark, we could run a true 3-4 DL where Clark and the other player would rush or collapse the pocket while Lancaster served as the run stuffer in the middle that creates piles. I don't see why we couldn't bring Spriggs to camp. What's it going to hurt? Seriously. I wouldn't bring Campbell back either. He's replaceable in the draft and only got time because Greene went down.

Not sure we move on from Linsley though I totally see your logic. Linsley was literally drafted for his physicality as the OSU line was known for their physicality his senior year. We didn't exactly get that this year, though he was great in pass pro when healthy. He's the biggest ? for me heading into the offseason TBH. I want to keep him, but I thought Patrick played pretty well in that Detroit game and he's been one of these developmental prospects that has played well when thrust into the limelight.

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17 minutes ago, PACKRULE said:

I bring TWill back at a good price. He was great this year why let him walk. 

Jaire, King, Sullivan, Josh Jackson, Amos, Savage, Greene, Redmond, Hollman. 

That should be good enough, plus any draft picks. Tramon played well enough that he will probably get a $5m deal again for a couple years. Time to see if Josh has anything

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4 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Always good to try and improve your offensive line by significantly downgrading two positions

Losing Bulaga and cutting Linsley would be top level failure, especially to replace them with Lucas Patrick and Jared Veldheer. 

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5 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

Jaire, King, Sullivan, Josh Jackson, Amos, Savage, Greene, Redmond, Hollman. 

That should be good enough, plus any draft picks. Tramon played well enough that he will probably get a $5m deal again for a couple years. Time to see if Josh has anything

Agreed. Kinda hard to gauge a player when they can't get snaps.

 

1 minute ago, JBURGE said:

Losing Bulaga and cutting Linsley would be top level failure, especially to replace them with Lucas Patrick and Jared Veldheer. 

or a rookie that isn't ready.

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11 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Always good to try and improve your offensive line by significantly downgrading two positions

Getting cute with the OL is always a thing that amateur GMs consider but real ones never do.  You might move on from Bulaga if the price gets out of hand, but that's a loss.  You don't cut a starting calibre guy just to save money against the cap though.  Unless he's got a serious medical thing or he's on the run from the law or something like that.

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The cutting Linsely crowd is kind of misinformed. Linsely is the 14th highest paid center. Considering there are 5-10 starters on rookie deals, he really isn’t overpaid. 8-10m is average starter money for second contract Cs, which Linsely is. To marginally improve on him you either need to spend 11+ or burn a second. The route should be to draft a replacement mid rounds this year (maybe develop Madison more)

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2 hours ago, pacman5252 said:

The cutting Linsely crowd is kind of misinformed. Linsely is the 14th highest paid center. Considering there are 5-10 starters on rookie deals, he really isn’t overpaid. 8-10m is average starter money for second contract Cs, which Linsely is. To marginally improve on him you either need to spend 11+ or burn a second. The route should be to draft a replacement mid rounds this year (maybe develop Madison more)

The Packers O line is talented at this time and most other teams would swap their O line for ours in an instant. When you have a veteran QB (who was 36 in December) that's the kind of unit you keep together, if you can (and the Packers can). Sure there is some injury risk with Bulaga, but he is very good when he plays and there is (if re-signed) a viable backup in Veldheer, if things go pear-shaped. Bulaga is not easy to replace without suffering a big dip in talent, drafting a mid-round OT pick that has time to polish their game before starting, would be a sound plan imo, because if Bulaga is retained you have time to see if that mid-round draftee is progressing to starter-level. If not, you have to spend a higher draft pick in a future year as an (almost) instant replacement.

Ideally, I'd keep Bulaga and Linsley and Veldheer on the roster. The only circumstance where I would consider moving on from Linsley this year, is if there is a specific, expensive FA that requires the extra money Linsley's going would generate. For example, if the Packers could get Jets WR Robbie Anderson or DE Michael Brockers AND Rams ILB Littleton by releasing Linsley, I'd be down with it. Unless the net impact of a trade is projected as large, you keep Linsley through 2020 and then reassess his value for another contract.

 

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Elgton Jenkins was a standout center in college .. he's obviously versatile, but the vast majority of his starts his final two seasons were at center.  He rarely had played guard before the Packers stuck him at LG.  He was really good there, but would he be even better at center?  If so cutting Linsley would provide the big cap savings and may not be much of a loss at all.  Probably would allow us to resign Bulaga.  When the Packers drafted Jenkins I thought it was to protect themselves from life without Linsley.  

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