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Mind Character

Draft Guarantees & Staying at 10 VS. a Trade-Down

The 7 or so  

30 members have voted

  1. 1. Excluding the top 3 QBs likely to go top 10, how many players are there in the draft that are worthy of 10th overall instead of trading down?

  2. 2. When it's all said and done do you think that we trade down?

  3. 3. When it's all said and done do we select an OLineman at 10 or with our 1st round selection?



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The Cleveland Browns 7**

Assuming the 3 QBs of Burrow, Tua, and Herbert go top 10, rank the 7 players the Browns should target for selection over a trade-down option.

**If you DON'T think there are 7 players that the Browns should value over a trade down, specify how many players you think there are that should be valued over a trade-down and then rank those players.

Bonus: Add a few Players that you'd want to target via a trade-down.

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The 4  players the Browns should select over a trade down scenario:

1.) Chase Young, DE Ohio STate

2.) Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Alabama

3.) Jeffrey Okudah, CB Ohio State

4.) Andrew Thomas, LT Georgia (too many red flags)

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The 2  players the Browns should be tempted to select over a trade down scenario:

5.) Isaiah Simmons, Hybrid-LB Clemson

6.) Derrick Brown, DT Auburn

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The 11 players the Browns should target in trade down scenarios of all types (i.e., short versus far trade downs)

7.) Javon Kinlaw, DT South Carolina

8.) Robert Hunt, OT Louisiana Lafayette

9.) CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma

10.) Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama

11.) Jalen Reagor, WR TCU

12.) Tristan Wirfs, OG Iowa (The Rest of the league's going to see him as a raw guard and he'll fall between 13th to 19th).

13.) AJ Epenesa, DE Iowa

14.) Jordan Elliot, DT Missouri

15.) Kristian Fulton, CB LSU

16.) Jack Driscoll, RT Auburn  

 

Edited by Mind Character

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I gotta be honest. This is a really tough question to answer. I have to see what we do in free agency with our new GM.

 

If it’s Berry, I could see a trade down and us drafting Josh Jones. However, a LOT of teams need OT’s. So it’d be wise not to gamble.

Edited by candyman93

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Do you really think Driscoll and Hunt are gonna be gone by pick 41? Even with everyone on Dez Nuts of Austin Jackson, Mekhi Bekton, Josh Jones, Biadasz, some on Lemieux's? Seems like at least one will be there, likely Tega Wanogho too (though a bit raw).

Went with the same six guys as you, actually, assuming we are going zone. Add Epenesa to the late first trade-down list for Tayne. CJ Henderson is really good, though the poor tackler talk had been mentioned about him. 

Been thinking about it and still 100% no receiver in the first round unless one of the top two falls to at least 20 and we've already traded down, as well as all our guys being gone. This is the worst draft to grab a receiver high and our line is in shambles.

Also, not seeing the Raegor love (in the first, maybe not even pick 41, though he looks solid). No way. There are so many talented dudes who will be there in the third. Lynn Bowden with our late third or maybe even fourth.

This group is crazy deep. And it's reasonable to think the offensive line is totally dried up by mid-third or so, maybe late third of we're lucky. Tayne's sleeper Chase Claypool is a sleeper no more, sadly, but that's one more receiver in the stack of at least twenty worth grabbing on the first four rounds.

If we trade down, we need a future first or else just a few spots to still grab a blue chip (if some surprise picks happen like a fourth QB, Chaisson, Epenesa top-10 Ferrell-style).

The more info we get, the better this class is looking. If none of our guys are there, it'd be great to trade down far and get lots of picks--pretty indifferent if we get a future first or not, as it would be great to take some shots in this draft. There will be some gems in the third and fourth round--TE class and LB class are not beat as bad as advertised ITO. 

Guys like Moss, Trautman, Bryant, Breeland...someone probably makes it to the fourth.

Guys like Harrison, Dye, Weaver, Quarterman, Phillips, Brooks from Texas Tech, Baum, Uche... someone makes it to the late third or fourth. Projections are all over the place for LB's at this point.

Guys like Dillon(!), Harris(!), Moss, Hubbard(?), the LSU dude, someone makes it late third or later at RB.

There are a lot of NT types and a good one should fall to the fourth or fifth. Loving Gallimore, especially if Phillips is our DC, as actually seeing a little Aaron Donald in him--relentless and can pass rush too. But he may be too rich to grab at 41 when a guy like Fetu or Benito Jones could probably be had two rounds later or more.

It'd be great to have an extra fourth, fifth, sixth even to stock up on receivers this draft. Let's assume OBJ and Juice are the guys--we should--and not go full Corbett by spending precious draft capital on a third guy for the maybe future, even if that player could potentially be great.

We need linemen desperately, DT or Simmons still more than receiver, and Okudah still makes sense because he is CB1, prototypical and our young guys are still somewhat unproven (Ward has his injury risk too). Our receivers are established talent.

Analytics have gotta be all over grabbing a guy around the 3rd/4th and 5th/6th who would both go a round or two earlier normally. That's why the first round makes no sense this year. Tayne's $0.02.

And we need to sign a safety. This class 😬.

tl;dr Tayne wants Wills, okay with Thomas because it would be meant, and then for the nerds to nerd and trade down for lots of picks.

Edited by NudeTayne

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16 hours ago, NudeTayne said:

Do you really think Driscoll and Hunt are gonna be gone by pick 41? Even with everyone on Dez Nuts of Austin Jackson, Mekhi Bekton, Josh Jones, Biadasz, some on Lemieux's? Seems like at least one will be there, likely Tega Wanogho too (though a bit raw).

Went with the same six guys as you, actually, assuming we are going zone. Add Epenesa to the late first trade-down list for Tayne. CJ Henderson is really good, though the poor tackler talk had been mentioned about him. 

I don't know if Hunt will be there at 41; my sense is that he won't, but Driscoll likely could be.

I think Hunt will be a late riser as he's thought to have elite leadership intangibles and likely wow people in the interview room. I haven't heard anything about Driscoll in that regard.

CJ Henderson gets a lot of comparison's to Denzel Ward in terms of movement ability and instincts. Durability through tackling on the next level much like Ward is a concern that many people have with Henderson.

I loved Joe Haden because he tackled. Ideally, we'd get a strong-bodied CB that can be a force against the run, but Henderson's other abilities project well in a lot scouts minds to a top man and zone cover corner with tackling deficiencies.

Depending on what Joe Woods wants he might not be a fit as we already have cover CBs that struggle with tackling.

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I don’t think we trade down, despite the nerd concerns of some.

I mean, if a QB is there (Herbert?) and a team wants to offer a huge deal to move up, sure, but I don’t think they’re going to be actively looking for any/every opportunity.  

We need OL help and defensive help at all 3 levels.  With as good as this OL class is, with as many as 4 top shelf OT’s in play at 10, I think the most likely scenario is they take the guy they like and move on.

I’m Captain TradeDown ‘round these parts and I wouldn’t be mad at all to lock down a good to great tackle for a decade at 10.

Of course if someone starts dangling a ‘21 first...well.....

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1 hour ago, brownie man said:

If Okudah is there at 10 do you take him or trade down?

 

If he is BPA, you take him.

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4 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I don’t think we trade down, despite the nerd concerns of some.

I mean, if a QB is there (Herbert?) and a team wants to offer a huge deal to move up, sure, but I don’t think they’re going to be actively looking for any/every opportunity.  

We need OL help and defensive help at all 3 levels.  With as good as this OL class is, with as many as 4 top shelf OT’s in play at 10, I think the most likely scenario is they take the guy they like and move on.

I’m Captain TradeDown ‘round these parts and I wouldn’t be mad at all to lock down a good to great tackle for a decade at 10.

Of course if someone starts dangling a ‘21 first...well.....

Our defensive line, assuming we don't make cuts there shouldn't need starter help. LB, depends if we resign Joe, cut Kirksey and how they feel about Takitaki/Wilson going forward. I think we should be good at starting CB for awhile and I don't think the odds are high that we draft a safety high.

What I'm trying to say here is Oline. We need it one way or another. We realistically could trot out a defense that doesn't have a glaring weakness with what we have and a couple re-signings or average starter signings to replace them. We need offensive line help immediately. We may need receiver help after Landry/OBJ also. I don't see T.E. being a high pick.

So:

OLine X 2 or 3

 

LB
WR/Safety/TE

Unless a gem falls in our lap I'm drafting two offensive linemen before anything else.

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1 hour ago, Thomas5737 said:

Our defensive line, assuming we don't make cuts there shouldn't need starter help. LB, depends if we resign Joe, cut Kirksey and how they feel about Takitaki/Wilson going forward. I think we should be good at starting CB for awhile and I don't think the odds are high that we draft a safety high.

What I'm trying to say here is Oline. We need it one way or another. We realistically could trot out a defense that doesn't have a glaring weakness with what we have and a couple re-signings or average starter signings to replace them. We need offensive line help immediately. We may need receiver help after Landry/OBJ also. I don't see T.E. being a high pick.

So:

OLine X 2 or 3

 

LB
WR/Safety/TE

Unless a gem falls in our lap I'm drafting two offensive linemen before anything else.

Defense needs depth more than anything, but that can be addressed with mid to late round picks.

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3 hours ago, brownie man said:

If Okudah is there at 10 do you take him or trade down?

Severely doubt he will be, as most have him as blue chip and very clearly CB1. But if Wills and Thomas are off the board, it'd be an easy decision based on what we know of the prospects.

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On 1/25/2020 at 8:51 PM, brownie man said:

If Okudah is there at 10 do you take him or trade down?

 

A lot of scouts think he's a better prospect than Marshon Lattimore.

I think you'd have to take him as we've had two seasons of multiple games missed with Ward and 1 rookie season of multiple games missed with Greedy.

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On 1/25/2020 at 8:51 PM, brownie man said:

If Okudah is there at 10 do you take him or trade down?

 

No problem with building strength in the DB.

Yes.

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On 1/24/2020 at 10:10 PM, Mind Character said:

The 4  players the Browns should select over a trade down scenario:

1.) Chase Young, DE Ohio STate

2.) Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Alabama

3.) Jeffrey Okudah, CB Ohio State

4.) Andrew Thomas, LT Georgia

--------------

The 2  players the Browns should be tempted to select over a trade down scenario:

5.) Isaiah Simmons, Hybrid-LB Clemson

6.) Derrick Brown, DT Auburn

I think the first 9 players off the board are set.

I don't know where each is going to be selected, but that they'll all likely come off the board before 10.

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1.) Chase Young, DE Ohio STate

2.) Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Alabama

3.) Jeffrey Okudah, CB Ohio State

4.) Isaiah Simmons, Hybrid-LB Clemson

5.) Derrick Brown, DT Auburn

6.) Joe Burrow, QB LSU

7.) Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama

8.) Justin Herbert, QB Oregon

9.) Andrew Thomas, LT Georgia

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I think if that situation plays out then it will be just like the year that we were waiting for Deforest Buckner to fall to us at 8 but he didn't.

As long as one of those 6 non-QBs are on the board, I think we stay put and make the selection.

If not, much like the DeForest Buckner scenario, I believe we trade down.

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1 hour ago, Mind Character said:

I think the first 9 players off the board are set.

I don't know where each is going to be selected, but that they'll all likely come off the board before 10.

----------

1.) Chase Young, DE Ohio STate

2.) Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Alabama

3.) Jeffrey Okudah, CB Ohio State

4.) Isaiah Simmons, Hybrid-LB Clemson

5.) Derrick Brown, DT Auburn

6.) Joe Burrow, QB LSU

7.) Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama

8.) Justin Herbert, QB Oregon

9.) Andrew Thomas, LT Georgia

-----------

I think if that situation plays out then it will be just like the year that we were waiting for Deforest Buckner to fall to us at 8 but he didn't.

As long as one of those 6 non-QBs are on the board, I think we stay put and make the selection.

If not, much like the DeForest Buckner scenario, I believe we trade down.

Yeah, but the odds are that someone rises and someone falls. The odds that GM's won't do something randomly stupid or reach on a prime position like QB or edge seems low. Like, you're right that probably most of that list will go top-9, but if someone on that list interviews poorly it has a weak combine or some fringe top-10 like Kinlaw goes ham and rubs a 4.77, annihilates agility etc., maybe they'll end up a surprise pick. 

What I'm saying is that there are a lot of factors between now and the draft, even if it looks logical on paper. Every year some dudes go higher and lower for what seems like almost no logical reason other than perceived fits. Like, maybe Gettleman really does fall in love with Becton for how age and size. Nobody though Ferrell was going top-5 last year. 

And we saw Herbert shoot back up. Maybe a QB like Eason or Love checks all the boxes at the combine/pro-day and goes full Daniel Jones.

Just some counterpoints here against being sure of much at this point, even though we're getting closer.

tl;dr don't think Simmons, Brown, Wills or Thomas are top-9 locks--top-20, yes, but another tackle, QB, edge, Lamb/Jeudy, even Kinlaw could jump in.

Edited by NudeTayne

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