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Mind Character

Draft Guarantees & Staying at 10 VS. a Trade-Down

The 7 or so  

30 members have voted

  1. 1. Excluding the top 3 QBs likely to go top 10, how many players are there in the draft that are worthy of 10th overall instead of trading down?

  2. 2. When it's all said and done do you think that we trade down?

  3. 3. When it's all said and done do we select an OLineman at 10 or with our 1st round selection?



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37 minutes ago, NudeTayne said:

Simmons, Brown, Wills or Thomas are top-9 locks--top-20, yes, but another tackle, QB, edge, Lamb/Jeudy, even Kinlaw could jump in.

I disagree about Brown. Simmons would be surprising to me. However, I agree about Wills and Thomas.

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2 hours ago, NudeTayne said:

tl;dr don't think Simmons, Brown, Wills or Thomas are top-9 locks--top-20, yes, but another tackle, QB, edge, Lamb/Jeudy, even Kinlaw could jump in.

Kinlaw and Becton are the two others I could see getting into the top 10.

In this WR Class, I just can't see any of the top 10 teams going Lamb or Jeudy over other premium positions, but maybe I'm wrong.

I think the league sees Wirfs as a Guard mostly. And his sloppy at times tape will push him to the 12-18 range.

Epenesa is the wild card edge player but he's more steady eddy than a dominant player destined for top 10.

If not those 6 non-QBs, then Kinlaw or Becton, but I'd be shocked unless a combine mishap occurs if those 6 + Kinlaw+ Becton aren't the players that variably go top 10.

Edited by Mind Character

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3 minutes ago, Mind Character said:

Kinlaw and Becton are the two others I could see getting into the top 10.

In this WR Class, I just can't see any of the top 10 teams going Lamb or Jeudy over other premium positions, but maybe I'm wrong.

I think the league sees Wirfs as a Guard mostly. And his sloppy at times tape will push him to the 12-18 range.

Epenesa is the wild card edge player but he's more steady eddy than a dominant player destined for top 10.

If not those 6 non-QBs, then Kinlaw or Becton, but I'd be shocked unless a combine mishap occurs if those 6 + Kinlaw+ Becton are the players that variably go top 10.

Epenesa somehow dominating the combine could make him go very high. He's huge, great character, complete player etc. so if he lights up the combine he could sneak in as an edge. 

And it only takes two or so surprises to push someone down to us. *fingers crossed it's either a guy like Wills or else at least leave a QB to maximize trade-down.*

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Best OT or if theres a bunch that you like trade back some and get one

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2 hours ago, mistakey said:

Best OT or if theres a bunch that you like trade back some and get one

Which OT do you have in your tier-1 worth grabbing at 10?

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2 minutes ago, NudeTayne said:

Which OT do you have in your tier-1 worth grabbing at 10?

Everyone raves about wirfs says hed be a great scheme fit so id go Him.  Especially since ferentz is an ol maestro and the iowa boys are pro ready.

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The value from the 2020 trade chart just isn't there to trade down:

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

Unless we are trading back into the 20's, we aren't getting a future 1st, and if we trade down THAT far, it had better be because all 3 OT's that I like for us have a guarantee of being there (not likely) or have been involved in a career altering accident of some kind.

If somehow you could guarantee me something like this:

Trade back to 20, net a 2021 1st:

20: OT (Wills/Wirfs/Thomas)

...then sure. Some speculate Wills won't test as well and could drop. Wirfs is a solid ZB OT prospect, and worst case scenario, will be a rock solid starting OG in his NFL career.

I love Josh Jones from Houston, but more as a late 1st/early 2nd, so if anything, I'd personally rather:

1st: Simmons, OLB from Clemson

1st: Trade 2nd and 3rd to Pick #28 and draft Jones, OT Houston

You get a solid OT AND arguably the best player in the draft not named Chase Young.

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The OL group as a whole is in such dire straits that without any FA acquisitions I think we pull the trigger whomever available fits the best at LT or RT at 10

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9 hours ago, NudeTayne said:

Yeah, but the odds are that someone rises and someone falls. The odds that GM's won't do something randomly stupid or reach on a prime position like QB or edge seems low. Like, you're right that probably most of that list will go top-9, but if someone on that list interviews poorly it has a weak combine or some fringe top-10 like Kinlaw goes ham and rubs a 4.77, annihilates agility etc., maybe they'll end up a surprise pick. 

What I'm saying is that there are a lot of factors between now and the draft, even if it looks logical on paper. Every year some dudes go higher and lower for what seems like almost no logical reason other than perceived fits. Like, maybe Gettleman really does fall in love with Becton for how age and size. Nobody though Ferrell was going top-5 last year. 

And we saw Herbert shoot back up. Maybe a QB like Eason or Love checks all the boxes at the combine/pro-day and goes full Daniel Jones.

Just some counterpoints here against being sure of much at this point, even though we're getting closer.

tl;dr don't think Simmons, Brown, Wills or Thomas are top-9 locks--top-20, yes, but another tackle, QB, edge, Lamb/Jeudy, even Kinlaw could jump in.

I'm a fan, so I would take him if he ran a 4.85. My dream is to significantly address the OL and still be able to take BPA in the draft

On ‎1‎/‎24‎/‎2020 at 10:10 PM, Mind Character said:

14.) Jordan Elliot, DT Missouri

Ewwww,Unless this is the 3rd/4th round, I don't want anything to do with this one.

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1 hour ago, NudeTayne said:

Which OT do you have in your tier-1 worth grabbing at 10?

There are only two players I think I would take over one of the OT's (of course assuming somehow C.Young and the top 3 QB's are off the board....

DT Derrick Brown (I've been pimping him for years on this Board, him and Marlon Davidson, when they were recruited to Auburn)

CB Jeff Okudah.....adding him along with Ward and Greedy and we have literally the best young group of CB's in league

Short of those two......its OT or Trade down for me. And them if we trade down...hell trade down and get another 1rst....and then take the top Valued Player (NOT a WR) that has slipped....someone like Delpit or Kinlaw....Even if all the OT's are on the board, I wouldnt get cute and try to trade down a bit AND get one of them. With our needs and talented roster, I would draft my top OT and keep it moving.

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35 minutes ago, Reginaldm9 said:

The OL group as a whole is in such dire straits that without any FA acquisitions I think we pull the trigger whomever available fits the best at LT or RT at 10

Yeah it’s not like we need just a RT or just a LT, we have neither, and this is a strong tackle class.

Unless someone offers a huge bounty of picks, I’m assuming we stay at 10 and take the top T on the board.

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37 minutes ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

Ewwww,Unless this is the 3rd/4th round, I don't want anything to do with this one.

Interesting.

I see an ultra competitor guy that will run and chase beyond the whistle, explosive, nasty mentality, plays all out in the 4th quarter even when the game is decided, slippery, quick guy with good but not heavy hands who will be better in the pass than the run in the pros. Eye and ball awareness deficiencies. doesn't rush with a plan; lacks advanced hand combat skills. I think he's a mid 2nd round guy to early 2nd round talent with quality starter upside. He's better than Christian Wilkins who everyone raved about as a next level guy last year when I thought thought he was an amazing intangibles rotational starter but not a high impact quality starter.

We'll see what he becomes as our evals disagree.

Edited by Mind Character

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38 minutes ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

Ewwww,Unless this is the 3rd/4th round, I don't want anything to do with this one.

 

8 minutes ago, Mind Character said:

Interesting.

I see an ultra competitor guy that will run and chase beyond the whistle, explosive, slippery, quick guy with good but not heavy hands who will be better in the pass than the run in the pros. I think he's a mid 2nd round guy to early 2nd round talent with quality starter upside. He's better than Christian Wilkins who everyone raved about as a next level guy last year when I thought thought he was an amazing intangibles rotational starter but not a high impact quality starter.

We'll see what he becomes as our evals disagree.

After recent evaluation (reading these two posts), I have him firmly pegged as a late second/early third round prospect.

Hope that helps fellas.

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34 minutes ago, Mind Character said:

Interesting.

I see an ultra competitor guy that will run and chase beyond the whistle, explosive, nasty mentality, plays all out in the 4th quarter even when the game is decided, slippery, quick guy with good but not heavy hands who will be better in the pass than the run in the pros. Eye and ball awareness deficiencies. doesn't rush with a plan; lacks advanced hand combat skills. I think he's a mid 2nd round guy to early 2nd round talent with quality starter upside. He's better than Christian Wilkins who everyone raved about as a next level guy last year when I thought thought he was an amazing intangibles rotational starter but not a high impact quality starter.

We'll see what he becomes as our evals disagree.

I definitely see the tools, but he is way too inconsistent to me, almost frustrating. Is too inconsistent to invest a high draft pick on IMO. That's my only beef with him, he will make a huge splash play then you won't see it for quarters or even games

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2 hours ago, mistakey said:

Everyone raves about wirfs says hed be a great scheme fit so id go Him.  Especially since ferentz is an ol maestro and the iowa boys are pro ready.

They run almost the same run scheme as Stefanski’s. He would start and play at a high level immediately. 
 

Top choice in a trade down is Josh Jones. He’s a brick wall in pass protection.

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