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Ozzy

2021 NFL Draft 7 Round ranking:

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On 6/29/2020 at 4:20 PM, Ozzy said:

Ohio State: W. Davis, J. Myers, Munford, Miller, Petit-Frere

 

My takeaway from the whole thread: there's someone with the last name Petit-Frère. I'm dying right now.

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23 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Oregon having a top 5 DL?  It could happen like you said with elite players in Thibodeaux and Scott but the rest are all very unproven players to me and still need to show a lot.  Just with those two though sure could say they are top 10 no doubt and if they get something from the rest even better, so will see what those other guys look like.  The LB core I am less sold on unless Sewell's brother really is something special, Slade-Matautia is the only proven guy to me and losing Dye is huge because he was the leader of that group.  On the DB group I forgot to include Mykael Wright who is another good DB on Oregon, they will be awesome on the back end, the WR core is solid and the RB core is as well.  The OL and QB are huge question marks though, Brown coming in helps if Shough does not turn into something, Sewell is the best OL in the nation but the rest are all super unproven on the OL and they obviously lost a ton of experience and depth from last year so will see how they do with an entirely new group.

 

Hopefully the season actually happens, just saw that Oregon's first game is NDSU.  That would be an amazing game and a great test for Trey Lance.  Would love to see that would but to me the season is still a massive question mark of even happening.  

agree on everything here, well said. there's potential all over the place (I'm less bullish on the receivers but maybe Devin Williams can provide a spark, I like Pittman but not much else at this point, Johnson is ok), but it definitely is just that: potential. Don't forget Flowe on the linebacker side. Also wouldn't shock me to see Sewell end up on the D line down the road, he's just so big for a linebacker

Shough looked good in garbage time and i think the system will be better under Moorhead. 

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2 hours ago, ScoDucks823 said:

agree on everything here, well said. there's potential all over the place (I'm less bullish on the receivers but maybe Devin Williams can provide a spark, I like Pittman but not much else at this point, Johnson is ok), but it definitely is just that: potential. Don't forget Flowe on the linebacker side. Also wouldn't shock me to see Sewell end up on the D line down the road, he's just so big for a linebacker

Shough looked good in garbage time and i think the system will be better under Moorhead. 

Johnny Johnson III was the best receiver on the team last year and kind of came out of nowhere, he could be even better now and is easily the best receiver on the team, I think that is better than ok.  Sure Devon Williams could provide something and Pittman is decent but I think Addison could be something with his size and athletic ability, they also have Redd as well.  To go 4 or 5 deep at receiver is not a bad thing but sure they are not USC in the receiver core.

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21 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Johnny Johnson III was the best receiver on the team last year and kind of came out of nowhere, he could be even better now and is easily the best receiver on the team, I think that is better than ok.  Sure Devon Williams could provide something and Pittman is decent but I think Addison could be something with his size and athletic ability, they also have Redd as well.  To go 4 or 5 deep at receiver is not a bad thing but sure they are not USC in the receiver core.

I found Johnson to be very inconsistent catching the ball last year, regardless of whether he put up the best numbers. overall our receivers were pretty poor last year and I think they really factored into some of Herbert's struggles. that being said, Pittman and Williams are super talented and Johnson showed some flashes last year despite the drops/ incorrect routes. Redd is a decent gadget guy but nothing special and Addison definitely could progress. Moorhead will make a big difference because last year's passing concepts were terrible

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On 6/29/2020 at 2:20 PM, Ozzy said:

DB: Not really a hard call here, Oregon is standout and experienced at every position.  Two fine corners in Graham and Lenoir and two great safeties in Holland and Breeze.  Awesome group and the best no question, Georgia is a close second with a collection of three very good corners and LeCounte who has a lot of experience at safety.  FSU I think could be something, especially if the transfer Dotson has success like he did at FAU.  Samuel Jr is outstanding and Nasirildeen is a tackling machine, will see if Lars-Woodbey can come back off injury and be something.  LSU could be higher but really depends on how good Stevens ends up being and if Flott at play as the other corner, Vincent did well last year but needs to take a bigger role as well, Stingley is the best though no question.  Love USC with those safeties for sure especially if Hufanga can stay healthy.  SC is very good as well if they can get elite play out of Mukuamu and Horn.  Notre Dame is a sleeper if transfers McCloud and Pryor can be something, Hamilton is already a star safety and Crawford has ability.  

Oregon: T. Graham Jr, Holland, B. Breeze, D. Lenoir, N. Pickett
Georgia: R. LeCounte, DJ. Daniel, E. Stokes, T. Campbell, Cine
Florida State: Samuel Jr, Nasirildeen, M. Dotson, Lars-Woodbey, House, Dent
LSU: D. Stingley, J. Stevens, Vincent Jr, T. Harris, C. Flott 
USC: T. Hufanga, Pola-Mao, Griffin, C. Steele
South Carolina: I. Mukuamu, J. Horn, RJ Roderick, J. Robinson
Notre Dame: K. Hamilton, S. Crawford, N. McCloud, I. Pryor, T. Bracey
Northwestern: G. Newsome II, Pace, Whillock, Ruiz

 

Kinda interested in how UW didnt make the list.

They lose Myles Bryant, but Elijah Molden is an All-American. Trent McDuffie had the 11th highest coverage grade in FBS lasts year (PFF) and only one missed tackle as a true freshman. Keith Taylor is an uber talented corner essentially as a 3rd fiddle. Molden-McDuffie-Taylor is a comedy of riches at corner. The CB unit will be backed up by Kyler Gordon and Dominque Hampton, two very talented players. Asa Turner and Cam Williams both started as true freshman at safety, and should be capable of replace Myles Bryant collectively. 

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On 6/29/2020 at 5:20 PM, Ozzy said:

Penn State would have been even more stacked if Slade did not transfer, still with Brown and Cain they are very good.

Slade ultimately became an afterthought for us. He wasn't much of a factor. too many mouths to feed.

This year it's gonna be primarily Journey Brown as the lightning, and Noah Cain as the Thunder. With Devyn Ford mixed in at times. 

Devyn Ford gets a bigger role after Brown goes to the NFL next year.

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3 hours ago, animaltested said:

Kinda interested in how UW didnt make the list.

They lose Myles Bryant, but Elijah Molden is an All-American. Trent McDuffie had the 11th highest coverage grade in FBS lasts year (PFF) and only one missed tackle as a true freshman. Keith Taylor is an uber talented corner essentially as a 3rd fiddle. Molden-McDuffie-Taylor is a comedy of riches at corner. The CB unit will be backed up by Kyler Gordon and Dominque Hampton, two very talented players. Asa Turner and Cam Williams both started as true freshman at safety, and should be capable of replace Myles Bryant collectively. 

In 2018 they had Bryon Murphy, Taylor Rapp, JoJo McIntosh, Jordan Miller, Austin Joyner, Myles Bryant etc.  To me that is a DB unit to talk about.  Murphy is better than any DB on the 2020 roster and it is not even close, same with Taylor Rapp.  I like Keith Taylor but to me right now he is a 2nd or 3rd rounder at best, Molden probably a 3rd or 4th rounder and is not near the top of the better safeties out there, I doubt he could play CB in the NFL but maybe some type of hybrid slot safety position.  Maybe I am not familiar enough with McDuffie, I probably need to watch him some more.  

Lake is a heck of a DB coach. And maybe I am underrated some of them but to me they are not as solid from a preseason standpoint compared to some years in the past.  And maybe I overrated Washington DBs, I loved Myles Bryant and had him high to mid round selection and he was a UDFA, but would not be surprised if he gets on the roster at New England even in a absolutely stacked DB unit they have, might be a safety even though he is probably best in the slot.  

Limiting big plays on D is great but 30+ yard plays, more telling would be a stat like 25 or 20 yard plays might be a little more representative.  As an overall unit no way Washington last year was a better defense then Utah or Oregon.  Heck USC as well has more youth at all levels and talent arguably, and absolutely no way is Washington's DB core better than Oregon's this up coming season.

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22 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

In 2018 they had Bryon Murphy, Taylor Rapp, JoJo McIntosh, Jordan Miller, Austin Joyner, Myles Bryant etc.  To me that is a DB unit to talk about.  Murphy is better than any DB on the 2020 roster and it is not even close, same with Taylor Rapp.  I like Keith Taylor but to me right now he is a 2nd or 3rd rounder at best, Molden probably a 3rd or 4th rounder and is not near the top of the better safeties out there, I doubt he could play CB in the NFL but maybe some type of hybrid slot safety position.  Maybe I am not familiar enough with McDuffie, I probably need to watch him some more.  

Lake is a heck of a DB coach. And maybe I am underrated some of them but to me they are not as solid from a preseason standpoint compared to some years in the past.  And maybe I overrated Washington DBs, I loved Myles Bryant and had him high to mid round selection and he was a UDFA, but would not be surprised if he gets on the roster at New England even in a absolutely stacked DB unit they have, might be a safety even though he is probably best in the slot.  

Limiting big plays on D is great but 30+ yard plays, more telling would be a stat like 25 or 20 yard plays might be a little more representative.  As an overall unit no way Washington last year was a better defense then Utah or Oregon.  Heck USC as well has more youth at all levels and talent arguably, and absolutely no way is Washington's DB core better than Oregon's this up coming season.

Utah was elite, kinda standing alone in that regard. 

Base Statistics, UW - Oregon were a coin flip when it came to defending the pass: (Slight edge to Oregon)

Yards Per Attempt

UW - 6.35

OU - 6.09

Passing First Downs per game

UW -10.0

OU - 9.9

Oregon obviously gets the nod on overall defense since they were significant more stout against the run. UW was really let down by their Linebacker group last year. Oregon also gets an edge with a infinitely better pass rush (43 sacks vs 29 sacks) which undoubtable boosted the efficiency of the pass defense. Crazy to think that 2019 was considered a huge step back on defense for UW, and they were still performance wise a very stout defense.  Sophomore slumps could impact key players (Turner, Williams, McDuffie) but this unit could be a lot better than 2019's unit. Turner + Williams really need to take the next leap to solidify the back end. 

Not sure what Molden could be in the pros. Some intial blogs have him with the agility and explosiveness to be a Day 2 pick in the slot. He seems to be a consensus preseason All-American pick. Dude is a beast along the LOS too. Plays alot bigger than his 5'10 frame.

Cant really speak to the UW's DB's struggles in the pros. Budda and Rapp seem like legit players. Sidney Jones, and Kevin King have been let downs. 

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22 hours ago, animaltested said:

Utah was elite, kinda standing alone in that regard. 

Base Statistics, UW - Oregon were a coin flip when it came to defending the pass: (Slight edge to Oregon)

Yards Per Attempt

UW - 6.35

OU - 6.09

Passing First Downs per game

UW -10.0

OU - 9.9

Oregon obviously gets the nod on overall defense since they were significant more stout against the run. UW was really let down by their Linebacker group last year. Oregon also gets an edge with a infinitely better pass rush (43 sacks vs 29 sacks) which undoubtable boosted the efficiency of the pass defense. Crazy to think that 2019 was considered a huge step back on defense for UW, and they were still performance wise a very stout defense.  Sophomore slumps could impact key players (Turner, Williams, McDuffie) but this unit could be a lot better than 2019's unit. Turner + Williams really need to take the next leap to solidify the back end. 

Not sure what Molden could be in the pros. Some intial blogs have him with the agility and explosiveness to be a Day 2 pick in the slot. He seems to be a consensus preseason All-American pick. Dude is a beast along the LOS too. Plays alot bigger than his 5'10 frame.

Cant really speak to the UW's DB's struggles in the pros. Budda and Rapp seem like legit players. Sidney Jones, and Kevin King have been let downs. 

I mean, Kevin King was kind of always overrated. Kind of one of those guys that built up a lot of buzz after the season for some reason with just an okay pre-draft process. I mean, he was good in college, but never really looked like a top-2 CB for an NFL team.

Sydney Jones has had some strong play - and yeah, he's also had some not-so-strong play - but he has also missed quite a bit of time and in a CB room lacking direction. If I'm an NFL team and Jones is on the block, I'm trading for him in a heartbeat. He was advertised as a top-10 pick, and he's had some moments where he's quietly looked really good in limited playing time.

Budda Baker is a stud at the hybrid DB position. He matches up really well in man coverage, has a natural sense of where the play's going, has crazy explosion and just attacks the football. Honeybadger 2.0.

Taylor Rapp is an ideal SS in today's NFL. He can play LB when he needs to, he's very smart, hits hard and doesn't really miss tackles as well, reliable in shallow zone... Really his only weakness is that he doesn't have the range of a cover 1 guy or cover 2 FS, but he's very advanced in basically every other aspect.

I've seen every play in Murphy's NFL career so far. Byron Murphy definitely struggled last year as the team's number 1 corner for nearly half of the season (Patrick Peterson was suspended for the first six weeks and Robert Alford missed the season due to injury), but, to be fair, it was trial by fire. He lined up against Kenny Golladay (huge physical mismatch), DK Metcalf (same), Julio Jones (also same), Tyler Boyd, Hollywood Brown, Tyler Lockett, Calvin Ridley, and DJ Moore in his first 6 weeks. Surprisingly, he was able to pretty much shut down Golladay in week 1, Metcalf in week 2, and Moore in week 3 (though he allowed a single reception to Moore which resulted in a 50+ yard TD). He was wrecked by Julio and Boyd.  He struggled against Hollywood Brown. He played well against Lockett. So, in total, Murphy played really well against four top-flight wideouts (Moore, Lockett, Metcalf, and Golladay) in three of the games where he lined up as the Cards' top corner, but was absolutely ABUSED in the other three. There doesn't seem to be a body-type correlation, as I would have expected, as Julio is really the only big WR that gave him trouble. Short-area quickness is also supposedly his strength, but he was simply beaten by Hollywood on a bunch of short passes. I liked that Murphy didn't seem to struggle very much in the deep game, even thriving against some WRs that are known for being deep threats, which was my biggest concern with him coming out of school. He also played admirably against some big guys and erased my fears of getting wrecked in mismatches. However, he was very inconsistent on the year. He DID give reason for optimism going forward, but to call him a good corner in the NFL at this point would be a stretch, as he shut down some guys, but also had some embarrassing plays mixed in there.

Overall, I think Washington DBs have done about as well as expected in the NFL. Guys like Baker and Rapp, while still very young, have arguably outplayed their draft slot. The jury is out on Murphy, but he did about as well as expected as a rookie second-rounder asked to be a team's #1 corner. The jury is similarly out on Jones, as there really needs to just be more tape before he can be labeled good or bad. King hasn't been awful, but he's been disappointing, but most of his hype was unwarranted IMO.

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Posted (edited)
On 4/30/2020 at 12:39 AM, Ozzy said:

Trey Lance is an awesome player who had a great season last year and maybe since next year is such a some what down season for QBs he could come out.  But honestly the NFL QB room is absolutely packed on almost every roster, and just look at what Winston had to do and he lead the league in passing yards last year.  I think it would be foolish for Lance to come out as a RS SOPH, maybe he plays lights out like he did last year and he probably will if there is a season.  Still not sold on him being this super high 1st round pick in 2021.  Top 5?  Not so sure about that one.  Would be great for him sure but could be a little early.  

 

 

Maybe I missed some guys, but I believe these are most of the RS SOPH quarterbacks who came out early for the draft.  Not a great list but also no one from a FCS school either, all had awesome seasons outside of Kizer but all were on a much more national stage.  Even though I must say the FCS playoffs are tough no doubt about it so what Lance did last year was impressive but not like no other QB has done the same at NDSU.

Mike Vick
Sam Darnold
Johnny Manziel
Dwayne Haskins
DeShone Kizer
Jameis Winston

 

 

 

Outside of a few hundred more yards rushing and less INTs, Easton Stick had similar numbers his last year at North Dakota State.  Heck had arguably close passing stats again minus the interceptions over three seasons really.  Carson Wentz had a great JR season and still came back for his SR season where he did get injured though, still was a top pick in the draft after leading the team to the title.  

Maybe if 2-4 QBs retire next year but with how most are talking that is not going to happen.  

I mean he doesn't need to be a super high first round pick he just has to be a first round pick and hes guaranteed the team's confidence, trying to go high is just a game / wanting a bigger contract but you're already making millions as a 21 year old so I don't think it'd be foolish if he wants to be making money earlier.

I also don't think that QB-wise the NFL is stacked. I can think of several teams that will probably need to draft a QB in the first round. Patriots (in case Newton is a bridge QB), Colts, Jaguars, Bears, Panthers, Buccs, perhaps 49ers. That's just being modest and not pushing out teams like Falcons and Steelers, they could if teams wanna plan for the future and have a QB sit. I think specially the Panthers and Buccs would LOVE Trey Lance, he fits their offenses very well.

Edited by Drained

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Drained said:

I mean he doesn't need to be a super high first round pick he just has to be a first round pick and hes guaranteed the team's confidence, trying to go high is just a game / wanting a bigger contract but you're already making millions as a 21 year old so I don't think it'd be foolish if he wants to be making money earlier.

I also don't think that QB-wise the NFL is stacked. I can think of several teams that will probably need to draft a QB in the first round. Patriots (in case Newton is a bridge QB), Colts, Jaguars, Bears, Panthers, Buccs, perhaps 49ers. That's just being modest and not pushing out teams like Falcons and Steelers, they could if teams wanna plan for the future and have a QB sit. I think specially the Panthers and Buccs would LOVE Trey Lance, he fits their offenses very well.

True teams seem to always need QBs, but all at the moment right now most do not and many not only have a starter  but a future project QB and a backup QB, most have three decent ones or two at least.  Proof of the crap market is what Cam Newton signed for and even more so Jameis Winston who lead the league in passing yards just one year ago.  If the NFL was so QB hungry Winston would have been a much more wanted player than he was.

Sure the flood gates will open and these QBs will retire at some point but if they all take the lead of Tom Brady, yeah most are not going anywhere anytime soon outside of them getting a major injury.  Think the Jaguars are not fine with Minshew, Dobbs, Glennon and Luton?  That is a decent group I feel with experience and future potential, Bears fine with Trubisky and Foles but sure maybe could take a late round flyer if someone falls, Colts have Rivers, Brissett, Eason and Chad Kelly I would be fine with that no question about it.  49ers have Jimmy G, Beathard and Mullens all have proven game experience and Jimmy G is not a bad QB at all and is still young.  Panthers have Bridgewater, PJ Walker and Will Grier sure that is a question but Bridgewater knows that offense well obviously, but they take Lance over say Trevor Lawrence of Justin Fields, I doubt it.  Then the Steelers with Big Ben is everything if he is gone but they do have Mason Rudolph who is not bad, Hodges and JT Barrett.  Then the Falcons with Matt Ryan is not going anywhere, but yes the backup situation is rough with Benkert, Etling and Schaub but Benkert does have some ability.  Bucs sure might be the only legit one with only one real QB with Tom Brady and backups being Gabbert and Ryan Griffin.  All the rest though yeah I am not sold on them being in absolute need of a QB especially if said QB is a RS SOPH that only played one season of college football if this up coming season is canceled. Fun to speculate sure but might need to wait for the season to play out and he only has to go undefeated, beat every team they play by what 10-20+ and win the national title.  Kid played great last year no question but honestly no one knew who he was before the season and even for over half of the active season, he clearly will be getting much more attention from teams this year and beyond.    

Edited by Ozzy
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