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ravens5520

TCMD Discussion (Welcome Antoine Brooks JR)

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1 hour ago, ravens5520 said:

Torn on the Bozeman but I backed down from trading Hurst. No value out there and useless to deal him unless I was plugging up a need.

I disagree. ILB was a much larger need last year as we saw almost 4 starters change throughout the season. We couldn’t cover TE very well early on and it showed. Williamson is only $6.5 mill. I don’t count that as expensive with the free agent market showing $10 mill a season for players. Plus with the deal, we would be allowed to extend Williamson. I’d be curious to see his numbers after that

From week 5 we went with Bynes and LJ Fort as rotational pieces. The change up happened when we couldn't figure out who of Onwuasor, Young, Board we had to use. 

We wasn't constantly burned because of our linebackers inability to cover. The cost benefit of removing af starting oline who plays 70 snaps a game for a linebacker who will be a rotational piece with all the nickel/dime/racecar packages we use is just really bad. Even if we can upgrade from Bozeman, we create a hole by trading him that is more difficult to replace than inside linebacker.

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How about Washington’s latest offer? 
 

Jonathan Allen + 148 4th

for Hayden Hurst 

Hurst has two years left. Allen is a UFA after 2020. But I like the Value for Hurst. Allen has shown flashes and could blossom in our system. We are deep at TE and pass rush is weak currently 

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19 minutes ago, ravens5520 said:

How about Washington’s latest offer? 
 

Jonathan Allen + 148 4th

for Hayden Hurst 

Hurst has two years left. Allen is a UFA after 2020. But I like the Value for Hurst. Allen has shown flashes and could blossom in our system. We are deep at TE and pass rush is weak currently 

We are an injury to Andrews away from having zero pass catchers at tight end. Our group is strong but not deep. I don't know how well Allen has played to be honest, and I don't know how he would fit in our system.

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11 hours ago, ravens5520 said:

How about Washington’s latest offer? 
 

Jonathan Allen + 148 4th

for Hayden Hurst 

Hurst has two years left. Allen is a UFA after 2020. But I like the Value for Hurst. Allen has shown flashes and could blossom in our system. We are deep at TE and pass rush is weak currently 

I’m in. We need all the help we can get a IDL. Allen has similar PFF grades to Hurst the last two seasons, he’s 1.5 years younger, he plays the more important position, and we’re getting an additional 4th round pick where we can replace Hurst with a younger receiving TE option. IMO I had Hurst rated as a fringe 2nd/3rd round option in 2018. Getting two years out of him, plus a 4th, plus a potential solution to our need at IDL? Easily it’s a no brainer.

Whats more you have to consider this another way... do we really believe we will give the team option 5th year to Hurst for 2022 at $6-7m based off his current output? I don’t think so. So he’s done after 2021. Whereas if Allen has a great season for us we would have the team option 5th year to retain his services for the additional year or at least as leverage/buy time to work out the extension.

For me it’s a slam dunk, easy option. I take that deal and then on draft day sprint to the podium for U of Cincy TE Josiah Deguara.

Edited by diamondbull424

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11 hours ago, ravens5520 said:

Jonathan Allen + 148 4th

for Hayden Hurst 

I'd do it

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11 hours ago, Danand said:

We are an injury to Andrews away from having zero pass catchers at tight end. Our group is strong but not deep. I don't know how well Allen has played to be honest, and I don't know how he would fit in our system.

I guess nobody has a deep TE group then.

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1 hour ago, drd23 said:

I guess nobody has a deep TE group then.

I guess everybody use as many tight end sets as we do...

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2 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

I’m in. We need all the help we can get a IDL. Allen has similar PFF grades to Hurst the last two seasons, he’s 1.5 years younger, he plays the more important position, and we’re getting an additional 4th round pick where we can replace Hurst with a younger receiving TE option. IMO I had Hurst rated as a fringe 2nd/3rd round option in 2018. Getting two years out of him, plus a 4th, plus a potential solution to our need at IDL? Easily it’s a no brainer.

Whats more you have to consider this another way... do we really believe we will give the team option 5th year to Hurst for 2022 at $6-7m based off his current output? I don’t think so. So he’s done after 2021. Whereas if Allen has a great season for us we would have the team option 5th year to retain his services for the additional year or at least as leverage/buy time to work out the extension.

For me it’s a slam dunk, easy option. I take that deal and then on draft day sprint to the podium for U of Cincy TE Josiah Deguara.

I think we agree on the positional value. I don't know how well Allen has played, but I just don't want to "add" another body to the dline by giving up a player I think can play a big role for us.

With regard to the argument "Hurst based off his current output/If Allen has a great season". What if Hurst is the one having a great season? Then he either has trade value or is a candidate to be extended (although I think we should count on Andrews getting the big bucks). We rely a lot on tight ends, and if Andrews goes down/struggles being healthy, then Hurst is the guy we need to rely on. Saying we can find a guy like him in the draft is the same as saying we can find Jonathan Allen in the draft.

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16 minutes ago, Danand said:

I think we agree on the positional value. I don't know how well Allen has played, but I just don't want to "add" another body to the dline by giving up a player I think can play a big role for us.

With regard to the argument "Hurst based off his current output/If Allen has a great season". What if Hurst is the one having a great season? Then he either has trade value or is a candidate to be extended (although I think we should count on Andrews getting the big bucks). We rely a lot on tight ends, and if Andrews goes down/struggles being healthy, then Hurst is the guy we need to rely on. Saying we can find a guy like him in the draft is the same as saying we can find Jonathan Allen in the draft.

No. Jonathan Allen is a defensive interior option that has accumulated 8 sacks and 6 sacks in the last two seasons. Interior rushers that can do that, don’t grow on trees. If Allen can develop further than he could thrust himself onto a PB level. What’s more the bust rates for a player in the mid rounds isn’t nearly as consistent as at TE. Whereas when you look at the TE success rate, its roughly 30-40% for players drafted in the 3rd-5th round of the draft, which is one of the highest success rates of any position in the mid rounds (if not the highest). We found Dennis Pitta in the 4th, Mark Andrews in the 3rd, Darren Waller was a 6th rounder IIRC. Clearly locating and developing mid- late round TEs is something we have a knack for doing.

While Hurst was a mid round pick that rose drastically throughout the process that was almost universally panned by fans when his selection was made, Allen was a borderline top 5 pick that fell due to arthritis in his shoulders. While that diagnosis isn’t good, the fact remains that the last two seasons, he’s flashed his collegiate dominance at a position of need for us. Without Andrews we would still have Boyle who has proven himself capable and has just as much production as Hurst within our offense, adding another rookie to grow behind those guys with a 30-40% chance of starting at least half of his career (higher considering the Ravens track record at the position)... sounds like a smart bet.

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57 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

No. Jonathan Allen is a defensive interior option that has accumulated 8 sacks and 6 sacks in the last two seasons. Interior rushers that can do that, don’t grow on trees. If Allen can develop further than he could thrust himself onto a PB level. What’s more the bust rates for a player in the mid rounds isn’t nearly as consistent as at TE. Whereas when you look at the TE success rate, its roughly 30-40% for players drafted in the 3rd-5th round of the draft, which is one of the highest success rates of any position in the mid rounds (if not the highest). We found Dennis Pitta in the 4th, Mark Andrews in the 3rd, Darren Waller was a 6th rounder IIRC. Clearly locating and developing mid- late round TEs is something we have a knack for doing.

While Hurst was a mid round pick that rose drastically throughout the process that was almost universally panned by fans when his selection was made, Allen was a borderline top 5 pick that fell due to arthritis in his shoulders. While that diagnosis isn’t good, the fact remains that the last two seasons, he’s flashed his collegiate dominance at a position of need for us. Without Andrews we would still have Boyle who has proven himself capable and has just as much production as Hurst within our offense, adding another rookie to grow behind those guys with a 30-40% chance of starting at least half of his career (higher considering the Ravens track record at the position)... sounds like a smart bet.

With the logic in the bolded, we found McPhee, Brandon Williams, Michael Pierce, Arthur Jones from the 3rd round to UDFA. 

Boyle is not the pass catcher or has the ability that Hurst has to stretch the field.  

If Hurst was a 3-4 round pick, I doubt people wanted to trade him so quickly. In my opinion we don't win much by filling one hole while creating another.

I still agree though, that the positional value for a DT with pass rush ability exceel what we get from Hurst now

 

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Huge feedback gents!!! Love it. I’ll reach out to Washington as I was truly valuing that deal the same way everyone chimes in. 
 

 

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Deal was accepted with Washington. Welcome Jonathan Allen!

very excited for this move! Still young and could hit his prime with our schemes. 14 sacks in the last two season has me thinking we could fill a huge pass void from our front 3.

Sad to move on from Hurst, but Andrews has shown his chemistry with Lamar and the sky is the limit. 
 

** I will post an updated Depth Chart on page 1 later today**

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Free Agency Bids

1. Daryl Williams OG: contract is valued at 5 Mill APY

2. Markus Golden OLB: Valued at 4.5 Mill APY

3. Charles Clay TE: 2 year deal at 2 Mill APY

4. (resign own players slot: Judon at 5-6 Mill APY

Golden has 4 bids on him currently and Judon was at 0. It’s likely we only land one of them. Golden had his bounce back season in New York & offers a fair price for rotational depth to push Bowser/Ferguson 

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6 hours ago, Danand said:

With the logic in the bolded, we found McPhee, Brandon Williams, Michael Pierce, Arthur Jones from the 3rd round to UDFA. 

Boyle is not the pass catcher or has the ability that Hurst has to stretch the field.  

If Hurst was a 3-4 round pick, I doubt people wanted to trade him so quickly. In my opinion we don't win much by filling one hole while creating another.

I still agree though, that the positional value for a DT with pass rush ability exceel what we get from Hurst now

 

Which of those guys has gotten 8 sacks at 300 lbs in a season, I’ll wait... we need pass rush interiors. If we simply needed a “talent IDL” sure I would trust us to draft them. But we need pass rush.

We haven’t found that in any of those mid round options. McPhee is the closest and it’s a completely different position as he peaked at 7.5 sacks and plays at 265 lbs. He can’t be a beef specialist at 300 lbs and get 8 sacks at the same time.

Whereas out of all the names I listed Hurst is arguably (at least right now) the worst player. So even if we fall short of Hurst, we likely land on an Ed Dickson or Crockett Gillmore.

I mean I can name over 5 pretty legit TEs that can produce in receiving department we've drafted in the middle rounds in the last 15 years; Pitta, Dickson, Gillmore, Waller, Andrews. How many pass rushing IDL can you name that we’ve drafted? Which is why this was a great deal to accept. The team got a lot better with this move.

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10 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Which of those guys has gotten 8 sacks at 300 lbs in a season, I’ll wait... we need pass rush interiors. If we simply needed a “talent IDL” sure I would trust us to draft them. But we need pass rush.

We haven’t found that in any of those mid round options. McPhee is the closest and it’s a completely different position as he peaked at 7.5 sacks and plays at 265 lbs. He can’t be a beef specialist at 300 lbs and get 8 sacks at the same time.

Whereas out of all the names I listed Hurst is arguably (at least right now) the worst player. So even if we fall short of Hurst, we likely land on an Ed Dickson or Crockett Gillmore.

I mean I can name over 5 pretty legit TEs that can produce in receiving department we've drafted in the middle rounds in the last 15 years; Pitta, Dickson, Gillmore, Waller, Andrews. How many pass rushing IDL can you name that we’ve drafted? Which is why this was a great deal to accept. The team got a lot better with this move.

They where all quality players. Don't just list up stats/make one stat the utmost important measurement.

Gillmore was a non-factor for years and often injured. He is a bad example and Waller never really produced for us - he just did it with the Raiders. Pitta and Andrews are the guys, so that is two. Hurst is on the Dickson level after 1 healthy season and his upside is still there.

 

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