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Mock Draft Godfather V1


Kenrik

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31 minutes ago, MaximusGluteus said:

If there is a player at another position you like better than any available WR when you're on the clock, do you then draft a WR just because it's a deep WR class and we have a need, or do you pick the player at the other position you like better?  Not arguing, just genuinely curious.

You draft BPA at that point IMHO

 

13 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

I did notice a fair bit of money pushed into 2021, with a nasty combination of no money left for this year, but the Packers are not an all-in team.

However, it being your offseason, you can do that.

I would keep Fackrell if he isn't too expensive, and Shelby Harris looks like a second NT when it's DE you need upgrading. This also impacts on the draft where I'd want a DL in the first two rounds.

I always appreciate the efforts of others though, as I know from experience you are unlikely to get good reviews if you don't have almost board-consensus picks (like Shenault in round one, for example, or Pinkney in the 3rd.

Don't even get me going on this...Pinkney is NOT a third round pick and from the rankings I've seen, he's barely a draftable player. Of course the combine could change all that.

 

16 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

I never like to be rude in these because everyone has a right to an opinion on how to improve the team.

Using 50 million dollars and a round 1 pick on the ILB position just isn't mine.

I think his idea was to lock down Blake for a reasonable cost, which 10 mil a year really is, and then pair him up with a rangey ILB. 

One problem: Murray is Stephone Anthony as his decision making skills are his worst trait. He also seems to be spending a fair amount of time with the trainers during the game from the couple games I saw of him. Methinks he's not a first rounder and will be the surprise prospect tumbling down until Day 3. 

 

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I actually don't mind this draft too much and I really don't have an opinion on whether or not to keep Blake at this point so that doesn't factor into my opinion here. A couple things of note, however:

1. Getting Trey Adams in the 4th is a bit unrealistic. He's a 2nd rounder all day, at least where things stand at this point. I really like him as a prospect and he'd be a great player to groom behind Bakh while filling in elsewhere. For a guy his size, he's actually surprisingly quick so we may want to draft him and use him as a pulling Guard rather than a Tackle in certain formations. However, backing that up two picks later with an IOL may not be worth it though he is good value where you have him. 

2. I like the Shelby Harris signing a lot actually. Here, you signed a player who could make a positive impact immediately for a reasonable cost, but there should probably be another IDL early in this draft, probably with our 2nd or 3rd rounder.

3. Why Eric Ebron? Yeah, he's put up some good numbers, but he's really been an underachiever for most of his career. I think you stick with Sternberger and look to add someone like Adam Trautman somewhere in this draft.

4. *This comment is for everyone* I still wonder why we're all clamoring for a WR with one of the first two picks. Yeah, I get the need, but if this draft is so deep at the position, it's not like we can't find someone with our 3rd or 4th pick; especially when we have holes at IDL and still at ILB regardless if Martinez comes back. Frankly, ILB becomes top priority if Martinez walks. Do any of you trust Burks, Bolton, or Summers? I sure don't; especially when we got routinely trucked against the run. I hope to hell that this is the year Gute overhauls the DL and starts building around Kenny. We need at least two guys there, but I could live with one impact FA and a draft pick at the position. 

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3 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Look how many snaps Goodson got. You've either invested 50 mil or a 1st rounder for those snaps. 2 ILBs don't see the field together anymore. 

My bet is that Murray is the far superior ILB and we pay Blake Martinez until we can cut him. 

One or the other is OK, you don't need both whatsoever.

Goodson didn't get minimum snaps because he played ILB. He got minimal snaps because he isn't good. 2 ILB that are run stuffers and offer nothing in coverage don't see the field anymore. I really am hoping Blake gets more in the 5-7million range but I didnt want to completely lowball this because remarks would be flying. If you let Blake walk and draft a LB then we're taking a step back. If you keep blake but dont get another LB with speed, then the blue print is there to beat us. MN is going to do the exact thing SF just did to us. 

Trust me I've always been on this train that it doesnt make sense to draft ILB or WR in the first and honestly still am but I think we're in a tough situation with contending now. 

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9 minutes ago, Joe said:

1. Getting Trey Adams in the 4th is a bit unrealistic. He's a 2nd rounder all day, at least where things stand at this point. I really like him as a prospect and he'd be a great player to groom behind Bakh while filling in elsewhere. For a guy his size, he's actually surprisingly quick so we may want to draft him and use him as a pulling Guard rather than a Tackle in certain formations. However, backing that up two picks later with an IOL may not be worth it though he is good value where you have him. 

I could see Adams possibly falling to the 4th just due to his injury history, especially the back injury that ended his 2018 season and required surgery.  His longevity has to be a concern just due to that alone.

 

9 minutes ago, Joe said:

4. *This comment is for everyone* I still wonder why we're all clamoring for a WR with one of the first two picks. Yeah, I get the need, but if this draft is so deep at the position, it's not like we can't find someone with our 3rd or 4th pick; especially when we have holes at IDL and still at ILB regardless if Martinez comes back. Frankly, ILB becomes top priority if Martinez walks. Do any of you trust Burks, Bolton, or Summers? I sure don't; especially when we got routinely trucked against the run. I hope to hell that this is the year Gute overhauls the DL and starts building around Kenny. We need at least two guys there, but I could live with one impact FA and a draft pick at the position. 

I personally think IDL is a much greater position of need than WR.  Clark can't do everything himself, as we saw all year and especially in the playoffs.  Besides, if you have a d-line that can eat up the blocks of the o-line then just about any ILB is going to look good.  A large part of the success of Ray Lewis was due to the fact that he almost always played behind a stud D-line, and he even said so himself in an interview once, I just don't know if I'll be able to find it now since it was a long time ago.  Yes, Rodgers absolutely needs more weapons, but if a stud IDL or EDGE is there when we're on the clock, I'm going that route over WR, RB, or TE every single time, unless we're absolutely loaded at those positions already, which we definitely aren't.  And, if we lose Bulaga and/or Linsley, I'm also going OT/IOL before WR, RB, or TE.  I also wouldn't mind finding a stud IOL to replace Turner because he's talented but damnit the guy plays like a freaking *****.

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27 minutes ago, Joe said:

I actually don't mind this draft too much and I really don't have an opinion on whether or not to keep Blake at this point so that doesn't factor into my opinion here. A couple things of note, however:

1. Getting Trey Adams in the 4th is a bit unrealistic. He's a 2nd rounder all day, at least where things stand at this point. I really like him as a prospect and he'd be a great player to groom behind Bakh while filling in elsewhere. For a guy his size, he's actually surprisingly quick so we may want to draft him and use him as a pulling Guard rather than a Tackle in certain formations. However, backing that up two picks later with an IOL may not be worth it though he is good value where you have him. 

2. I like the Shelby Harris signing a lot actually. Here, you signed a player who could make a positive impact immediately for a reasonable cost, but there should probably be another IDL early in this draft, probably with our 2nd or 3rd rounder.

3. Why Eric Ebron? Yeah, he's put up some good numbers, but he's really been an underachiever for most of his career. I think you stick with Sternberger and look to add someone like Adam Trautman somewhere in this draft.

4. *This comment is for everyone* I still wonder why we're all clamoring for a WR with one of the first two picks. Yeah, I get the need, but if this draft is so deep at the position, it's not like we can't find someone with our 3rd or 4th pick; especially when we have holes at IDL and still at ILB regardless if Martinez comes back. Frankly, ILB becomes top priority if Martinez walks. Do any of you trust Burks, Bolton, or Summers? I sure don't; especially when we got routinely trucked against the run. I hope to hell that this is the year Gute overhauls the DL and starts building around Kenny. We need at least two guys there, but I could live with one impact FA and a draft pick at the position. 

Honestly, I havent watched much on Murray. I dont know many later round LB that are rangy. This position was suppose to be Burks but I dont think he will be that guy. If we let Martinez walk we dont have **** at ILB and yes Pettine has said he system is designed to rack up tackles for the ILB but this is assuming that the ILB is actually decent.

1. Depending on the site, I saw him being mocked a lot in the 3rd round. Appreciate the write up on Adams. This is always a good way to learn about players.

2. There are a lot of DL free agents so hopefully this drives down some of the contracts. I think Shelby is a little under the radar (by the public). I know Pettine isn't going to play the base very often and taking a LB with range my focus was getting the most talented nickel formation out there. We got gashed in the run and I think adding another talented DL to pair with Clark and a LB with range would allow us to stay in a Nickel and possibly stop the run. We paid lowry good money and Keke was turning it on at the end. 

3. I dont want to bank on Sternberger being our #1 TE. He missed a majority of TC (i think) and the season. If he doesnt pan out then we have another year wasted because our TEs suck. I didnt want to pay big money for Hooper or Henry. Ebron has under performed from the expectations but he is a solid TE. Its really an insurance sign if Sternberg doesn't develop.

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4 hours ago, Kenrik said:

Honestly, I havent watched much on Murray. I dont know many later round LB that are rangy. This position was suppose to be Burks but I dont think he will be that guy. If we let Martinez walk we dont have **** at ILB and yes Pettine has said he system is designed to rack up tackles for the ILB but this is assuming that the ILB is actually decent.

1. Depending on the site, I saw him being mocked a lot in the 3rd round. Appreciate the write up on Adams. This is always a good way to learn about players.

2. There are a lot of DL free agents so hopefully this drives down some of the contracts. I think Shelby is a little under the radar (by the public). I know Pettine isn't going to play the base very often and taking a LB with range my focus was getting the most talented nickel formation out there. We got gashed in the run and I think adding another talented DL to pair with Clark and a LB with range would allow us to stay in a Nickel and possibly stop the run. We paid lowry good money and Keke was turning it on at the end. 

3. I dont want to bank on Sternberger being our #1 TE. He missed a majority of TC (i think) and the season. If he doesnt pan out then we have another year wasted because our TEs suck. I didnt want to pay big money for Hooper or Henry. Ebron has under performed from the expectations but he is a solid TE. Its really an insurance sign if Sternberg doesn't develop.

Pettine not staying in base(because he doesn't have the talent TBH) is the key issue here. The reason he doesn't have the talent is in part because we made a mistake in extending Lowry who was horrible this year; literally all of his numbers except for total tackles and asst. tackles went down. Keke is a Day 3 pick who was on the ascent when the draft arrived. I think Shaun Bradley could be that rangy ILB we've been looking for and we can have him on Day 3. His issue is that he's only 6-1, 225 though if he's been invited to the combine, I'm sure his speed numbers will make him shoot up the boards.

Every year we have a conversation about the TE position and it's as if MM or MLF didn't value the TE position. We saw more action this year with Graham, but I'm beginning to think MLF's offense is a run-to-set-up-the-pass offense at this point. I too want an upgrade at TE but....Trautman's the only guy that looks good to me in this draft TBH and not because he's the flavor of the month.

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6 hours ago, MaximusGluteus said:

If there is a player at another position you like better than any available WR when you're on the clock, do you then draft a WR just because it's a deep WR class and we have a need, or do you pick the player at the other position you like better?  Not arguing, just genuinely curious.

I think you always go for the BPA in the first round. Since this class is deep in WRs, I was speculating that the BPA would be a WR at #30. However, if the BPA is at another position, you take him, and then take advantage of the deep WR class by getting one in the second round. But I think the first round should always be BPA. After the first round I would go with BVA, which takes into account team needs. The first round is your best shot at a blue chip player and a blue chipper shouldn't be passed up for position need. (Well, except for punters, long snappers, and kickers. They can wait.) I know this philosophy will probably give OutPost a hemorrhage, but that's just my philosophy. Go for the blue chippers in round 1. Thanks for asking. What do you think?

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7 minutes ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

I think you always go for the BPA in the first round. Since this class is deep in WRs, I was speculating that the BPA would be a WR at #30. However, if the BPA is at another position, you take him, and then take advantage of the deep WR class by getting one in the second round. But I think the first round should always be BPA at a position of need or a position that lacks depth. After the first round I would go with BVA, which takes into account team needs. The first round is your best shot at a blue chip player and a blue chipper shouldn't be passed up for position need. (Well, except for punters, long snappers, and kickers. They can wait.) I know this philosophy will probably give OutPost a hemorrhage, but that's just my philosophy. Go for the blue chippers in round 1. Thanks for asking. What do you think?

fixed

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6 hours ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

I think you always go for the BPA in the first round. Since this class is deep in WRs, I was speculating that the BPA would be a WR at #30. However, if the BPA is at another position, you take him, and then take advantage of the deep WR class by getting one in the second round. But I think the first round should always be BPA. After the first round I would go with BVA, which takes into account team needs. The first round is your best shot at a blue chip player and a blue chipper shouldn't be passed up for position need. (Well, except for punters, long snappers, and kickers. They can wait.) I know this philosophy will probably give OutPost a hemorrhage, but that's just my philosophy. Go for the blue chippers in round 1. Thanks for asking. What do you think?

That makes sense.  As much as I believe in BPA, especially in round 1, I do think positional value should be taken into account, and not just with kickers, punters, and and long snappers.  IDL, OT, EDGE, CB should probably get first priority, but of course if you're on the clock and you don't like any of the players at those positions, then you definitely look elsewhere rather than reaching.  It's tough because the draft is such an inexact science.  It seems like it's often a complete crapshoot, even for NFL front offices with all their scouting resources.  When I'm doing mock drafts on Fanspeak or TDN (mostly Fanspeak now) I never feel satisfied afterward, even though I've probably done 100 of them by now.

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10 hours ago, MaximusGluteus said:

That makes sense.  As much as I believe in BPA, especially in round 1, I do think positional value should be taken into account, and not just with kickers, punters, and and long snappers.  IDL, OT, EDGE, CB should probably get first priority, but of course if you're on the clock and you don't like any of the players at those positions, then you definitely look elsewhere rather than reaching.  It's tough because the draft is such an inexact science.  It seems like it's often a complete crapshoot, even for NFL front offices with all their scouting resources.  When I'm doing mock drafts on Fanspeak or TDN (mostly Fanspeak now) I never feel satisfied afterward, even though I've probably done 100 of them by now.

Yeah, It's the old argument between BPA and BValueA. (Value adds positional value to the BPA rankings.) For example, OutPost 31 says never draft an IOL, or WR in the first round because of low positional value. It's just my preference, but I would rather have a blue chip IOL, or WR, than a mediocre T or Edge that were drafted because of need. I guess with free agency as it is in the modern NFL, I would use this talent stream to address positional needs, as Gute did last year when he signed the Smiths, Amos, and Turner. And go for BPA in the draft, especially the first round where obtaining blue chip prospects is the highest. I think that is what Gute did in his last draft too, by taking Gary at 12. Even his next two picks looked like BPAs to me, although Savage also just happened to be a need position. 

If I were to guess this year, the way FA and the draft are lining up, Gute will go for IDL, and ILB in FA. Maybe add T if he lets Bulaga walk. In the draft he will go BPA again, which is why I was predicting WRs early. With this draft class being rich in WRs, it's entirely possible that a WR will be the BPA in several rounds, including the all important round 1. RB and T may also present a BPA for us in the middle rounds (the late rounds are always a crap shoot, so all rules are off). I predict our draft haul will be heavy on WRs, RBs, and Ts. I'm probably wrong, but I'm not getting paid for my predictions, so who cares? LOL! 

What do you think are the strongest positions in the draft this year? Am I right or wrong about WRs, RBs, and Ts being deep? That would change my predictions above.

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On 30/01/2020 at 3:50 PM, Joe said:

 

4. *This comment is for everyone* I still wonder why we're all clamoring for a WR with one of the first two picks. Yeah, I get the need, but if this draft is so deep at the position, it's not like we can't find someone with our 3rd or 4th pick; especially when we have holes at IDL and still at ILB regardless if Martinez comes back. Frankly, ILB becomes top priority if Martinez walks. Do any of you trust Burks, Bolton, or Summers? I sure don't; especially when we got routinely trucked against the run. I hope to hell that this is the year Gute overhauls the DL and starts building around Kenny. We need at least two guys there, but I could live with one impact FA and a draft pick at the position. 

Because if you draft a receiver in the 2nd you are more likely to get the one you want whereas if you draft in the 4th then you get what is left after everyone else picks their guy. Its getting a bit comical now ..

  • In years with a weak receiver class then you can't draft receiver high because you should work with the strength of the draft
  • In years with a strong receiver class then you can't draft receiver high because you can get one later

This mock sees us going defence, receiver, defence. So basically its yet another defence heavy draft. Its not that much to ask for one shiny new piece on the offence in the second round, it really isn't. If Gute waited until the end of the 4th to pick a receiver then the only conclusion is that Aaron must have run over his cat or something. Either that or he truly hates MLF.

Gute old buddy, you aren't reading this but if somehow you can sense this post, please Gute, just this one year - enough throwing every pick at defence trying to fix the defence. Just this one year have a go at making the offence fun to watch again. No more watching Geronimo and Kumerow going up against corners way more talented than them. Come on buddy - draft offence early and often. Just this one year then after that if it doesn't work, knock yourself out using all your picks on defence again. Would love it if all his Day 1 and Day 2 picks went on offence and he tried to plug the defensive holes in FA. Make it happen. Just this once then promise I wont ask again.

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On 30/01/2020 at 4:12 PM, Kenrik said:

Goodson didn't get minimum snaps because he played ILB. He got minimal snaps because he isn't good. 2 ILB that are run stuffers and offer nothing in coverage don't see the field anymore.

This x2

Good DCs make the most of what they have. If you have two good ILBs you find ways to maximise their use..........and the Packers do play 3-4 base, rather than 4-3 base with only one ILB (even if they aren't in base very often).

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9 hours ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

Yeah, It's the old argument between BPA and BValueA. (Value adds positional value to the BPA rankings.) For example, OutPost 31 says never draft an IOL, or WR in the first round because of low positional value. It's just my preference, but I would rather have a blue chip IOL, or WR, than a mediocre T or Edge that were drafted because of need. I guess with free agency as it is in the modern NFL, I would use this talent stream to address positional needs, as Gute did last year when he signed the Smiths, Amos, and Turner. And go for BPA in the draft, especially the first round where obtaining blue chip prospects is the highest. I think that is what Gute did in his last draft too, by taking Gary at 12. Even his next two picks looked like BPAs to me, although Savage also just happened to be a need position. 

If I were to guess this year, the way FA and the draft are lining up, Gute will go for IDL, and ILB in FA. Maybe add T if he lets Bulaga walk. In the draft he will go BPA again, which is why I was predicting WRs early. With this draft class being rich in WRs, it's entirely possible that a WR will be the BPA in several rounds, including the all important round 1. RB and T may also present a BPA for us in the middle rounds (the late rounds are always a crap shoot, so all rules are off). I predict our draft haul will be heavy on WRs, RBs, and Ts. I'm probably wrong, but I'm not getting paid for my predictions, so who cares? LOL! 

What do you think are the strongest positions in the draft this year? Am I right or wrong about WRs, RBs, and Ts being deep? That would change my predictions above.

I agree that WR, RB, and OT are deep.  I do hope we can grab a WR or two since there are some really good ones in this draft.  We'll just have to see how the draft falls I guess.

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17 hours ago, mikemike778 said:

Because if you draft a receiver in the 2nd you are more likely to get the one you want whereas if you draft in the 4th then you get what is left after everyone else picks their guy. Its getting a bit comical now ..

  • In years with a weak receiver class then you can't draft receiver high because you should work with the strength of the draft
  • In years with a strong receiver class then you can't draft receiver high because you can get one later

This mock sees us going defence, receiver, defence. So basically its yet another defence heavy draft. Its not that much to ask for one shiny new piece on the offence in the second round, it really isn't. If Gute waited until the end of the 4th to pick a receiver then the only conclusion is that Aaron must have run over his cat or something. Either that or he truly hates MLF.

Gute old buddy, you aren't reading this but if somehow you can sense this post, please Gute, just this one year - enough throwing every pick at defence trying to fix the defence. Just this one year have a go at making the offence fun to watch again. No more watching Geronimo and Kumerow going up against corners way more talented than them. Come on buddy - draft offence early and often. Just this one year then after that if it doesn't work, knock yourself out using all your picks on defence again. Would love it if all his Day 1 and Day 2 picks went on offence and he tried to plug the defensive holes in FA. Make it happen. Just this once then promise I wont ask again.

You didn't watch this team all season then. We run to set up the pass now. Go look at Aaron Jones' numbers vs. that of our receivers. Then go look at why we lost the four games we lost. There's a pattern: learn it, know it, live it.

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On 1/29/2020 at 5:39 PM, Redt said:

I've said for awhile Martinez needs to be our second best ILB, but not at that price.

I've never been so sure that one of our FA's isn't coming back in my life as I am with Blake Martinez. I holeheartedly agree that he is adequate as your 2nd ILB at best. He isn't a scab, but at 10 million a season, it just isn't going to happen. I don't think it would happen at 5 million a season. That all being said, I do like the 1st round selection in this mock and think we'd be very lucky to get him at pick #30. Thanks for putting in the work on a mock, love mock's!

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