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Goldfish's 7 Rounds (Updated 04/01/2020)


goldfishwars

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1 hour ago, CHOMP_CHOMP said:

According to what? No team actually follows that "value chart" if you look up past trades he falls right in line with value. The Jets traded 3 seconds to move up from #6 to #3 for a far inferior prospect. To think Miami wouldn't give up #18 is kind of laughable. I actually think they would have to give up more for Detroit to move that pick. For the Indianapolis trade, the Bills just traded 2 second rounders to move from #12 to #7 in 2018, so giving up #34 wouldn't be out of the question, especially when moving up to get a QB. 

I honestly think he has underpaid on 2 of the trades, but thats usually how it works until we see what teams actually get. 

Teams do use a chart, though possibly a different one. They also ignore it when they want a player badly.

I agree that none of the trades is impossible, especially for a QB. However, they are out of the norm. Each of the trades should have had some return compensation, call it change back. If he did not want to adjust the draft he had constructed, he could have used a future pick.

Edited by onejayhawk
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12 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

Teams do use a chart, though possibly a different one. They also ignore it when they want a player badly.

I agree that none of the trades is impossible, especially for a QB. However, they are out of the norm. Each of the trades should have had some return compensation, call it change back. If he did not want to adjust the draft he had constructed, he could have used a future pick.

But they aren't out of the norm... I just listed trades that resembles those exactly... the Jets went from #6 to #3, trading with Indianapolis. And they gave up #6, #37, #49, and 2019 2nd and got back only #3. The Bills went from #12 to #7, trading with the Bucs. And the gave up #12, #53, and #56 and got back #7 and a 7th rounder. Teams moving up into the top-10, especially to get a QB, do not get to dictate the terms of the trade. History has proven that... The Bucs-Philadelphia trade, there is some history to back up maybe getting a 5th rounder back. But thats not a top-10 pick, and not for a QB. Teams know they hold the leverage in those cases. 

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1 hour ago, BZski said:

Not for getting a QB. Teams routinely overpay.

Alright, since they are moving up for a QB, I'll cut some slack to the first two. The third one was always the closest. 

It makes you appreciate the Pat Mahomes trade more. They worked that out days before the draft because Reid thought New Orleans (#11) was showing interest in Mahomes. He traded a first and third, plus a deferred first, to move up. That's not even as good as the chart, though it's close.

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On 2/14/2020 at 5:03 AM, onejayhawk said:

The trades are off.

Miami is overpaying a mid-2nd round pick to trade up two spots. At least give back the Lions' third. It's still a premium, but not as big a one.
Indianapolis does not own #7, they want to acquire it. Again, they overpay significantly. Just use Indy's pick at #44.
The last one is closest. If you give back Tampa's 4th it's quite close. 

You already have my thoughts on the Chiefs' picks. That said, consider a penetrating DT. Chris Jones is a free agent. He says he wants to return, but...

J

They are massively under paying.

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You're usually spot on with Miami's picks but this is not good.

1. Don't mind the trade up for Tua, the pick on the other hand is the issue. I think it would be much better to give up #26, comp 4th, and future 2nd. 18 is a more valuable spot, especially if Epenesa falls there, to get an impact player on for a team that lacks talent than 26. Jones is a great pick but keep in mind that a RT would be more valuable than LT given that Tua is left-handed.

2. QB check, OT check, LB...? Miami already has two starting young LB's in Raekwon McMillan and Jerome Baker. I also think they pull Van Noy in free agency. Maybe some depth in the 4th or 5th. Miami also would be looking for bigger backers, like in the 240-250 + lbs range that can cover AND rush in Flores' scheme.

3. Miami prefers RB's that can catch as well so Taylor wouldn't be the best fit. I also think they target either Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, or running backs in that vein during free agency.

4. Miami just drafted a kicker. Not sure why they'd draft another one. 

 

EDIT: Just seeing your changes. My picks in the 1st would be the same but flipped since I think YGM is more of a late 1st talent. The addition of KJ Hill is perfect; Miami needs a slot to compliment DeVante and Preston. 

Edited by Ajayii
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Actually I would find it extremely amusing if Detroit traded the 3rd overall to Jacksonville or Las Vegas (only other teams with multiple 1st rounders this year) and then lost out on Okudah,  Simmons, Wills, Wirfs, Brown, and Thomas.  And the Dolphins would then simple rebuild this year and go after Lawrence Next year.  See Miami holds more cards than people give them credit for. 

Besides, I do not see any of them (Miami, Jacksonville, or Las Vegas) trading away their future for a player with Tua's red flags.  Now trading a first and a Second this year, I could see being worth it.  Just my opinion.

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1 hour ago, praegler said:

Actually I would find it extremely amusing if Detroit traded the 3rd overall to Jacksonville or Las Vegas (only other teams with multiple 1st rounders this year) and then lost out on Okudah,  Simmons, Wills, Wirfs, Brown, and Thomas.  And the Dolphins would then simple rebuild this year and go after Lawrence Next year.  See Miami holds more cards than people give them credit for. 

Besides, I do not see any of them (Miami, Jacksonville, or Las Vegas) trading away their future for a player with Tua's red flags.  Now trading a first and a Second this year, I could see being worth it.  Just my opinion.

Miami wants Tua and will trade up. Why wouldnt they? They cant have a team with half of the roster rookies? Makes no sense at all. I would bet they trade up with WAS or DET giving up #5, and their 2 2nd rd picks

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8 minutes ago, BZski said:

Miami wants Tua and will trade up. Why wouldnt they? They cant have a team with half of the roster rookies? Makes no sense at all. I would bet they trade up with WAS or DET giving up #5, and their 2 2nd rd picks

Miami doesn't have to trade up though. As @praegler  said, Miami can take BPA or even Herbert at 5 and keep all of their picks. They're not backed into a wall like these other teams.

So you'd trade your two picks where the most value is? LOL. I'd love to see you as a GM.

 

 

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