SB Sunday Mock Offseason

[StartBarr]

GB Packers 2020 Mock Offseason

 

Cap Space: $29.4 million

>$5 million reserved for draft class

>$24.4 million in cap left

 

Cuts:

Jimmy Graham (saves $8 million)

Lane Taylor (saves $4.6 million)

 

Updated Cap Space: $37 million

 

Re-signed:

 

•Tramon Williams: $4 million/1 year: I noticed most mocks don’t show Tramon resigning. I see value in bringing him back for one more year. He has excelled in the slot even at his age. He graded out with the 6th best coverage grade in the league last year by PFF. Why not give him another year on a cheap deal after he did a good job leading our young secondary this year while more than holding his own in coverage?

 

•Bryan Bulaga: $10.5 million/yr average, $8 million first year

 

•Mason Crosby: $3 million/yr average, $2.5 million first year

 

Others Re-signed:

•Jared Veldheer

•Allen Lazard

•Chandon Sullivan

•Marcedes Lewis

•Tyler Ervin

•Robert Tonyan

•Tyler Lancaster

•Jake Kumerow

•Danny Vitale

 

$8 million total first year cap hit

 

Total Cap Hit: $22.5 million Year 1

 

GOODBYE:

•Blake Martinez

•Kyler Fackrell

•Geronimo Allison

•Jason Spriggs

•Ibraheim Campbell

•Ryan Grant

•Demetri Goodson

 

Updated Cap Space: $14.5 million

 

FREE AGENT SIGNINGS:

 

•Nick Kwiatkoski / ILB / 6’2” / 242 lbs: signed for 4 years / $29 million ($6 million Year 1) - Considering our struggles in run defense this year, I would be surprised if we don’t target Nick Kwiatkoski this offseason. Kwiatkoski is only 26 and really stepped up in Chicago after Trevathan went down with an injury at the end of the year. Known for his run stopping abilities, he showed he is also more than competent in coverage than many thought after PFF graded him quite well. Packers lock him up here until his age 30 season in hopes of improving the ILB position after Blake Martinez signs a high priced deal elsewhere. 

 

•Phillip Dorsett / WR / 5’10” / 192 lbs: signed for 3 years / $10 million ($3 million Year 1) - Dorsett is a reliable receiver who moves the chains. After spending several seasons in New England, he can provide another veteran presence in the locker room next to Davante Adams to mentor some of the younger guys at the position (Lazard, MVS, EQ, any draft picks). Green Bay’s offense has often found themselves in 3rd and long situations over the past few years and often struggled to convert. Dorsett can provide a safety valve type of target for Rodgers, having picked up a first down on 58% of his career catches.

 

•Danny Shelton / NT / 6’2” / 339 lbs: signed for 2 years / $8.5 million ($3.75 million Year 1) - With New England focusing on priorities like Kyle Van Noy, Joe Thuney, Tom Brady, and others, the Packers are able to capitalize and bring in some former Patriots at great value. Shelton is another veteran FA who can fill a need and improve the Green Bay run D immediately.

 

Remaining Cap Space: $750,000 leftover cap + $5 million for rookie class

 

 

2020 NFL Draft

 

30. Tee Higgins / WR / Clemson / 6’4” - 215 lbs

In this scenario, depth of the WR position in this class, as well as a ol run on QBs and OTs allow Higgins to fall into our lap at #30. Honestly, I might prefer Laviska Shenault but I don't think he makes it to us & I don't want to have 3 of the same picks as AG#20. So Tee Higgins it is. Higgins is a big fast wideout who can take the top off of a defense in order to open things up for Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, and our TEs underneath. He has great size & hands to pull in contested catches and serve as a great RZ weapon. I think his skill set compliments Davante and the rest of our offense quite well. Higgins can quickly end up being the guy that we hoped MVS could develop into one day in a best case scenario. 

 

62. Raekwon Davis / DL / Alabama / 6’7” - 315 lbs

Hyped as a draft prospect since his breakout season in 2017, Davis’s draft stock took a hit due to injuries and less production when on the field this past year. The Packers will reap the benefits of this and run to the podium to select Raekwon The Chef. He is a massive body on the DL, a very stout run defender, and has the versatility to play as either NT or 5-tech in a 3-4 alignment. Some concerns over his development as a pass rusher cause him to slip further than anticipated but with good coaching & improved technique at the NFL level should make this a great value pick for the Packers.

 

94. Adam Trautman / TE / Dayton / 6’5” - 251 lbs

Trautman is a big bodied TE who has an advanced route free for a guy coming out of Dayton. Caught the eye of many at the Senior Bowl with his receiving skill set and ability to win matchups. Also a very willing blocker which is of vital importance in LaFleur’s scheme. He will pair with Jace Sternberger & Robert Tonyan to give us multiple high-ceiling TEs who can catch the ball downfield out of 2 TE sets. Rodgers needs more weapons and 2 of our first 3 picks provide that.

 

136. Robert Hunt / OL / LA Lafayette / 6’5” - 336 lbs

Hunt is a versatile OL who spent time at both OT and LG. Hunt was expected to rise on many draft boards during the evaluation process but he falls outside the top 100 picks after being forced to miss the Senior Bowl. He has shown the ability to dominate in pass protection at tackle but many see his best fit being inside a the the pro level. He can provide relief at OT in a pinch but he is picked to improve our pass protection inside, which was an issue in several games this year. In this scenario he starts his career as a swing OL backup before eventually taking Billy Turner’s starting job. With Robert Hunt, Elgton Jenkins, Billly Turner at guard, Green Bay is set at the position for a few years. Versatility and depth along both lines is a common theme for many picks here.

 

176. Charlie Heck / OT / UNC / 6'8" - 315 lbs

Heck is a RT prospect who has NFL size & length but could use some work in the weight room. Played hurt for part of the year and have a great game against Clemson while injured.

 

192. David Woodward / ILB / Utah State / 6'2" - 235 lbs

Woodward is known as a stout run defender who is considered a Day 3 prospect. See a trend here? He is projected to run the 40 in the 4.75-4.8 range which causes him to fall to the 6th round but he can be a contributor on early down run sets.

 

209. Josiah Coatney / NT / Ole Miss / 6'4" - 325 lbs

More help against the run. Coatney is a developmental guy for Shelton to mentor. Honestly, I don't know much about him but I liked his name. He is a big run stuffing guy NT type for us to mold and eventually replace Shelton.

 

219. Thakarius Keyes / CB / Tulane / 6'1" - 195 lbs

Another guy whose name I like. The name heavily influenced this pick, kinda like when I bet on horse racing. That's definitely not why I always lose though. Anyways, Thakarius meets the height threshold Green Bay usually follows and has solid speed for a guy his size. It will also be awesome to hear the play by play guy say "Za'Darius tips the ball at the line of scrimmage and it's been picked off by Thakarius.. Are you aware of this?". This is a stash him and coach him type pick since we have good young talent at the position and Tramon is back to mentor the young position group.

 

243. Case Cookus / QB / Northern Arizona / 6'5" - 235 lbs

Cookus had a great year statistically at Northern Arizona, finishing with 4114 yards, 31 TDs, and just 7 INTs. Coming from a small school, Cookus still put up good numbers without elite talent around him. He is a big dude but has great speed. Scouts expect Cookus to run the 40 in around 4.7 seconds, a great time for any QB - let alone one that is 6'5" and pushing 250 lbs. He has athleticism and limited his mistakes in college despite throwing for a high volume of passes. This could be a great pick for a guy to try to develop behind Aaron Rodgers. 

 

244. D|ck Morningwood / OLB / 6'4" - 269 lbs

Morningwood is consistent, showing up day after day. Morningwood may be just what the Packers need moving forward.

 

 

2020 Depth Chart:

 

QB: A. Rodgers / T. Boyle / C. Cookus

RB: A. Jones / J. Williams / T. Ervin / D. Williams

FB: D. Vitale

WR: D. Adams / T. Higgins / A. Lazard / P. Dorsett / MVS / EQ St. Brown / J. Kumerow

TE: J. Sternberger / M. Lewis / A. Trautman / R. Tonyan

OT: D. Bakhtiari / B. Bulaga / J. Veldheer / C. Heck

OG: E. Jenkins / B. Turner / R. Hunt

C: C. Linsley / L. Patrick

 

DL: K. Clark / R. Davis / D. Shelton / D. Lowry / M. Adams / K. Keke / T. Lancaster / J. Coatney

OLB: Z. Smith / P. Smith / R. Gary / D. Morningwood

ILB: N. Kwiatkoski / O. Burks / T. Summers / D. Woodward / C. Bolton

CB: J. Alexander / K. King / C. Sullivan / T. Williams / J. Jackson / K. Hollman / T. Keyes

S: A. Amos / D. Savage / R. Greene

 

K: M. Crosby

P: J.K. Scott

LS: H. Bradley

 

I know there are more than 53 players listed above but I don't feel like trimming the roster by like 4 players right now.

 

Please let me know your thoughts (and hate). And go Chiefs (until tomorrow)

Edited February 2, 2020 by StartBarr

[AlexGreen#20]

I refuse to believe we can't do better than that in FA.

[Packerraymond]

Rookie picks will be something like 3m in space and you don't need to deduct for the ERFAs, they'll make minimum contracts and won't factor into the rule of 51. Bulaga at 10.5 per as long as it's a 3-4 year deal will come in around 5-6m in year 1 hit, no way we guarantee that much of the deal to get it to 8m and we always put a minimum base salary on a year 1 deal.

That should give you 5-6m more in FA to play with for your next mock, which can give you a better DL than Danny Shelton, which is really all this mock is missing to me. Good work on the draft.

[Tperk]

Bigger question, is there really someone named **** Morningwood? 

[StartBarr]

3 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Rookie picks will be something like 3m in space and you don't need to deduct for the ERFAs, they'll make minimum contracts and won't factor into the rule of 51. Bulaga at 10.5 per as long as it's a 3-4 year deal will come in around 5-6m in year 1 hit, no way we guarantee that much of the deal to get it to 8m and we always put a minimum base salary on a year 1 deal.

That should give you 5-6m more in FA to play with for your next mock, which can give you a better DL than Danny Shelton, which is really all this mock is missing to me. Good work on the draft.

Appreciate the feedback and tips to improve for next go around. I am new to salary cap stuff, this was my first attempt to really learn how to play with the numbers so much appreciated on the corrections. 

Based on your Bulaga correction, can I free up more space applying the same concept to other deals here? Changing the first year cap hit on the Kwiatkoski, and Dorsett deals could free up another $1.5M-$2M if so. Another $500k or so with Crosby’s deal also and we are looking at more like $8M more to play with.

With more cap space for next mock, what players on the D-line do you see as best fits for improving our run D? Based on the added $5M (maybe $8M) to the free agency budget, which players in that price range do you like most?

[StartBarr]

3 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I refuse to believe we can't do better than that in FA.

Yea I was trying to be realistic and more conservative cuz we aren’t as flush with cap space as last year. But it looks like I nearly went full Ted Thompson in free agency as a result... next mock I’m making it rain

[Packerraymond]

3 hours ago, StartBarr said:

Appreciate the feedback and tips to improve for next go around. I am new to salary cap stuff, this was my first attempt to really learn how to play with the numbers so much appreciated on the corrections. 

Based on your Bulaga correction, can I free up more space applying the same concept to other deals here? Changing the first year cap hit on the Kwiatkoski, and Dorsett deals could free up another $1.5M-$2M if so. Another $500k or so with Crosby’s deal also and we are looking at more like $8M more to play with.

With more cap space for next mock, what players on the D-line do you see as best fits for improving our run D? Based on the added $5M (maybe $8M) to the free agency budget, which players in that price range do you like most?

I think the rule of thumb is, if you're paying nice money to a FA DL, don't worry about the run D. Kenny Clark is excellent there, but he's earned a 14-16m a year deal based on his ability to collapse the pocket. Don't spend nice money on a run plug, they are easy to find, buy a complete DL.

[Fl0nkerton]

I'd be shocked if Woodward was there at 192. He's a top 100 player IMO.

 

 

17 hours ago, StartBarr said:

 

244. D|ck Morningwood / OLB / 6'4" - 269 lbs

Morningwood is consistent, showing up day after day. Morningwood may be just what the Packers need moving forward.

 

Hard not to like this pick.

[66fan]

16 hours ago, Tperk said:

Bigger question, is there really someone named **** Morningwood? 

I heard that he is a prick.

[MaximusGluteus]

From what I've read so far Robert Hunt is a road grader better suited to a gap/power scheme rather than zone.  If he would fit though, he'd help out immensely in the run game, plus he apparently has one hell of an anchor in pass pro.

[Joe]

16 hours ago, StartBarr said:

Yea I was trying to be realistic and more conservative cuz we aren’t as flush with cap space as last year. But it looks like I nearly went full Ted Thompson in free agency as a result... next mock I’m making it rain

Actually, I thought this was the most realistic FA portion of a mock that I've seen so far. Dorsett isn't as reliable as you think though. He couldn't breakout on a roster that was depleted at WR last year, but I'd take him over stone hands Agholor any day; that makes bringing back Kumerow pointless as you're also spending your #1 on a receiver who I think can be of impact in Year 1. Resigning Williams and Kumerow is a waste of cap space, especially when you have Sullivan coming back and Hollman making a push for snaps later in the year followed up by a late round draft pick and yes, I get that Williams is supposed to be a mentor, but I think that may be wishful thinking given our current situation there. 

As for the draft itself, I like pretty much everything after the Davis pick, but I'm thinking Keyes is more of a Safety than a CB at the next level; which bodes well for him in this mock given that Campbell isn't coming back, Greene is more of a box Safety, and we're obviously set at the starting two positions. Keyes could standout as a role player early on and develop into that physical dime CB that can match up on a TE if necessary given his physicality.

 

Well done!