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General off-season discussion/plan thread


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So I was wondering about how injury luck or being unlucky in that regard and per FO, we ranked 23rd on offense and 26 on defense. Terrible....Once again. But that actually is a good sign going forward for those that are afraid this may be a team that regresses next season. The depth is still there and as long as we don't lose Jimmy, the team should be dominant once again. Eventually these numbers are going to flip though and we will have great injury luck. But when will that happen? We have been on like a six or seven year run with terrible injury luck. 

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2 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

So I was wondering about how injury luck or being unlucky in that regard and per FO, we ranked 23rd on offense and 26 on defense. Terrible....Once again. But that actually is a good sign going forward for those that are afraid this may be a team that regresses next season. The depth is still there and as long as we don't lose Jimmy, the team should be dominant once again. Eventually these numbers are going to flip though and we will have great injury luck. But when will that happen? We have been on like a six or seven year run with terrible injury luck. 

What source were you using for those ranks? 

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6. Saleh did an excellent job of matching scheme to personnel last season as the 49ers climbed to the No. 2 ranking in defensive efficiency. And San Francisco had bad injury luck on defense, finishing 26th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted games lost metric.

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1. The 49ers finished seventh in offensive efficiency last season. That ranking is especially impressive, considering they had below-average injury luck on offense, ranking 23rd in Football Outsiders’ adjusted games lost metric.

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The 49ers were not a particularly lucky team last year. They ranked 27th in injury luck and 14th in fumble luck and were 5-3 in one-possession games. San Francisco ranked 12th on special teams.

 

https://theathletic.com/1921423/2020/07/13/ten-things-a-football-nerds-guide-to-the-2020-san-francisco-49ers/

@John232

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From that article:

 
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Pass defense vs. different targets
TARGET DVOA/EPA
WR
4th
TE
2nd
RB
1st

The one area where they weren’t among the best was covering slot receivers. The 49ers ranked third against outside wide receivers but were 15th against slot receivers.

At 31 and two seasons removed from an Achilles injury, Sherman was one of the best corners. The 49ers were fantastic against running backs and tight ends. Warner, who is terrific in coverage, was a big reason for that performance.

San Francisco had eight defensive backs play at least 200 snaps last season. All eight are back.

 

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Overall, the 49ers were great at limiting big plays. They ranked second in EPA per attempt on downfield attempts, which went 20 yards or more. Opponents produced big plays against them on just 6.5 percent of dropbacks, which also ranked second.

I sound like a broken record, but this is why I hate when people talk about pass defense all they think about is the DBs. And really the corners and how good they are. But no, it's much more than that. Having legit good safety and LB play is a great indicator of how good the passing defense will be. The Pats are built different as well as the Ravens compared to the rest of the league, which is fine. But for us, having Kwon/Warner being able to cover any RB out of the backfield or any TE is such a huge plus. Tartt and Ward preventing big plays was also one of the biggest keys to the 2nd rated pass defense. 

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9 hours ago, John232 said:

I am never getting into a QB debate on this forum again. Alex Smith years were traumatizing. 

LOL... worry no more, friend. The remaining folks here have matured and learned from the past toxicity. We'll be fine. 

winking-thumbs-up-smiley-emoticon.gif

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22 hours ago, 757-NINER said:

Like I said, to each his own. Everyone's has their own view and that's perfectly fine. I'll argue that everyone of those QBs I mentioned could have done wihay Jimmy did or better for this offense last year, with the same parts around them.

Nothing wrong with being critical of Jimmy and his play. There's some things he does really well. Just acknowledging there's definitely room for improvement if he and this team want to take the next step.

The O-Line metric I take with a grain of salt. Yes, the O-Line needs improving along the interior. I have acknowledged personally, on numerous occasions. But I would attribute less than half of Jimmy's bad passes or errant throws to shotty O-Line play. I had nothing to do but rewatch all of our games from last season when Coronavirus first hit us and everything was shutdown. Most of our games I watched the coaches film numerous times and took notes. Jimmy had issues with anticipation, bad footwork, piss-poor throwing mechanics, tunnel vision/not seeing the field, pocket awareness and with his accuracy. And in alot of those instances, it had nothing to do with the blocking in front of him. 

I can agree with most of that. Oline play is a highly subjective metric, I still buy that we were among the bottom 10% of the league though. And I wasn't trying to say Jimmy was a top 5 elite guy but I'd easily have him in the top third of the league. How much of Jimmy's issues is that he doesn't trust the oline though leading to some of his bad habits? I think (hope) there was numerous issues that caused some of Jimmy's less than steller play last season between the oline as mention, the receivers just being flat out bad until Emanuel got here, and him coming off of his ACL, which could have compounded the oline mistrust.

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16 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

 

Not the most fluid route runner yet, but his catch radius is pretty ridiculous. As long as he is not afraid to take hits in the middle of the field, he's going to be one of Jimmy's favorites sooner than later. 

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23 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Not the most fluid route runner yet, but his catch radius is pretty ridiculous. As long as he is not afraid to take hits in the middle of the field, he's going to be one of Jimmy's favorites sooner than later. 

I agree with this. But, his suddenness and burst is apparent. He has the makings of being a very exciting player.

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Elite coverage play from safeties/LBs>>>>>>>>>>

Tartt is so damn important to this defense. He finally stayed healthy for the most part and it proved dividends. When he did get hurt, we saw what happened. This is why I'm hoping the coaching staff adjusts and just goes with the Ward/Moore duo if Tartt has to be out for some time. 

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So ESPN is doing their top 10 lists by polling execs, players, coaches etc.

From what I've seen, these are the Niners that have made the list:

Kittle - TE #1

Warner - LB #10

Bosa - Edge #3

Armstead - Interior DL #7 (Buckner was #4 on that list)

Williams - OT #3

They put out the corners and safeties list the next two days. I'm sure Sherman be on that list and possibly Ward? Though the latter is a big maybe. 

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On 7/15/2020 at 9:47 AM, J-ALL-DAY said:

So ESPN is doing their top 10 lists by polling execs, players, coaches etc.

From what I've seen, these are the Niners that have made the list:

Kittle - TE #1

Warner - LB #10

Bosa - Edge #3

Armstead - Interior DL #7 (Buckner was #4 on that list)

Williams - OT #3

They put out the corners and safeties list the next two days. I'm sure Sherman be on that list and possibly Ward? Though the latter is a big maybe. 

Actually Sherman only made honorable mention. 

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https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/07/19/pfts-2020-preseason-power-rankings/

Niners #2 in preseason power rankings

Assuming there's a season...NFC is gona be tough this year though. If i had to class the NFC, it would be...

Playoff Contenders - 49ers, Seahawks, Rams, Saints, Bucs, Packers, Vikings, Eagles, Cowboys

Potential sleepers/spoiler teams - Cardinals, Falcons, Panthers, Washington (i think Ron Rivera will improve the team year 1)

Likely to be bad teams - Giants, Bears, Lions

Got a tough road back...

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