Green Bay Packers Salary Cap Thread

[MrBobGray]

On 5/28/2020 at 9:55 AM, Shanedorf said:

GB and Aaron Jones agent are engaging in initial conversations...to see if there's a middle ground
What's a fair number for Jones and the Packers ?
Assume a 2- 3 year extension on top of 2020 so Jones gets another bite at the apple while still an under -30 RB

And no, we don't need you to barf out your " don't pay RBs mantra"  yet again. All good on that front

Is there a fair number that both sides can live with ? I think it's possible -  so what is that number ?
Current RB contracts linked below,  maybe in the $ 6-7 M range ?

https://overthecap.com/contracts/

Honestly, who even knows anymore?  I'm not sure there's a position I feel less certain on its current value in the NFL.  The top end of the market is basically McCaffrey and Elliott, then a handful of contracts that are clearly regrettable.  Bell is still a good player but there's no way the Jets are happy paying him $13 million a year.   David Johnson is still the fourth highest paid RB by APY, third by guaranteed money per year despite signing his extension two years ago.  I mean, only 7 RBs in the NFL are even making $8 million a year.  

On top of that, Jones has struggled with health and is undersized for the position.  I think he's actually more scheme independent than you would think given his size, he's a great runner on both man and zone runs, but I wonder if the rest of the NFL shares that perception.  It's just hard to know.

Personally, I would love to pay him something like 3/$21M.  I don't see him headed for a big payday unless he repeats last year and stays healthy with big numbers, but he is an explosive and dynamic complementary piece.

[vegas492]

19 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

Honestly, who even knows anymore?  I'm not sure there's a position I feel less certain on its current value in the NFL.  The top end of the market is basically McCaffrey and Elliott, then a handful of contracts that are clearly regrettable.  Bell is still a good player but there's no way the Jets are happy paying him $13 million a year.   David Johnson is still the fourth highest paid RB by APY, third by guaranteed money per year despite signing his extension two years ago.  I mean, only 7 RBs in the NFL are even making $8 million a year.  

On top of that, Jones has struggled with health and is undersized for the position.  I think he's actually more scheme independent than you would think given his size, he's a great runner on both man and zone runs, but I wonder if the rest of the NFL shares that perception.  It's just hard to know.

Personally, I would love to pay him something like 3/$21M.  I don't see him headed for a big payday unless he repeats last year and stays healthy with big numbers, but he is an explosive and dynamic complementary piece.

I think someone who scores 19TD's is not a complementary piece.  The sad part about him is that our centerpiece is Rodgers due to that contract, so that may mean that for us, he is complementary.  Unless you can have multiple centerpieces.  Like Favre/Green.  

The dude proved last year that he can catch and break games open and he's a threat whenever he touches the ball.

He is scheme dependent, and from all accounts, MLF wants to run first and run often.

Sign me up for 3/$21.  I'd even go 3/$30.  He's gonna get paid somewhere.  I'll actually be sad if he leaves GB after this year.  That is how much I've come to adore Jones.  Very few backs run as quick as he does and make it look so effortless.

When I think about what our offense could be...I just can't help but see many sets that include both Jones and Dillon in the backfield, then motioning Jones out to see what the defense does.  Makes me drool a little.  But just a little.

[JBURGE]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

I don't like it either, but it is a reality.

And really, maybe we should embrace it a little.  We aren't stacked in the WR room.  Our QB isn't Prime anymore.  Might as well try the Bronco/Elway approach for a couple of years.

We aren't stacked in the WR room for a reason. We chose not to stack it. There's no secret to it, you have to spend the necessary draft capital on them or bring in outside guys. We chose to do neither. We are choosing to stack the RBs, which I don't agree or embrace. If we let both Jones and Williams go next year I will be happy. Spend the 2nd on RBs every 4 years, I love that. Spend a 2 and a 4 in the same draft I don't care. But I don't want to do both

[Leader]

3 hours ago, Joe said:

That's why I don't think he's starter material. Plus the fact that he's got a ton of mileage as is. I would say he's athletic, but I wouldn't say he's as athletic as Saquon...

Since we're not much inclined to offer competitive second contracts for RB talent and we're gonna be in rinse and repeat mode....the fact he's got mileage on him isnt much of a concern. He doesnt have a bad injury history (or one that I've heard/read about at least.....) and I dont see him averaging 20 carries a game for us.

Anybody can get hurt....but unless he's got a history of injury......I think he'll hold up fine. Do I know that? Nope.

[craig]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

I look at it differently, and that is because I do have a soft spot for Jones.

We lack playmakers on offense.  Jones is one of them.  Dillon is an unknown right now.  MLF wants to run the ball.  We will need 2 backs, and maybe even 3.  Thunder and Lightning make sense to me, especially if our WR corp remains the same.

I'd pay to keep Jones on the team, but I wouldn't go nuts to do it.

If we had Prime Rodgers and were airing it out, I'd totally agree with you.  But we don't.  And won't.  So...might as well have a very strong running game.  

Vegas, I agree with your viewpoint.  I'd like to be able to keep Jones.  1.  He's been good, he's fun to watch, he's a playmaker on a team without hardly any of them.  2.  He's not heavily worn, and in conjunction with Dillon there's a reasonable chance that he won't get excessively worn on his next contract.  3.  Like it or not, he's on a team that believes having a good and threatening running game is crucial to their offense; I'm not sure that trying to run that offense effectively if Jamaal Williams is one of your two backs is going to work super well?  Perhaps if you're going to run an offense with a lot of running plays, it makes sense to spend some of your budget to keep good players who can make those running plays work?  4.   I think many of the backs who haven't done well in second contract have been more heavily worn during their original contract, and also perhaps in college, than has been Jones.  And sometimes there are attitudinal sense-of-entitlement issues there, too?  5.  Maybe it's dumb to think Jones might be an exception to a general norm, but there is some degree of individuality to each player and each situation, too.  6.  Contracts are always structured to allow releases or restructures later.  So maybe you do a $32/4 deal and the board says "4 years is too long; $8M is too much!"  But the cap hit for year one will be small, and if you keep him for 2-3 years the actual years may not be bad value.  7.  Covid may change, but otherwise salaries keep expanding, and under the new CBA with extra game, extra playoffs, and a higher %-revenue-slice to players, they should continue to do so.  So perhaps at the time that he signs an extension, posters will say "That's too high!"  But as new contracts fly by him, it quickly won't be high at all?  8.  A guy like Blake gets $10.  Would it be so awful for Jones to get $8?  9.  I know this is a dumb argument, because you always want good value per every dollar.  But Rodgers' big salary might hypothetically come off the books after two seasons.  A Jones contract would cap hit until after that.  So there might be some space in the budget to pay a good player something?

Another factor is the cost differential between Jones versus Jamaal.  A number of posters figure to let Jones go, because he's more expensive, but to then pay Jamaal, because he's cheaper.  I get that.  But he's cheaper because he's not actually a good or creative or play-making runner.  He's a JAG runner.  The point I'm rambling to here, is to perhaps not just consider what Jones's price will be, but instead what the price differential will be between Jones and Jamaal.  Suppose Jones costs $8, and Jamaal costs $3.  (maybe dumb numbers, but for sake of argument.)  Then it's not really like Jones is costing you $8; it's then like he's costing you $5 to keep him instead of Jamaal.   Seems to me that if they are to resign one or the other, that Jones will be at least $6 more valuable than Jamaal, because I think for a team that wants running to be a significant part of it's offense, it's probably important to have running backs who can run and improvise around imperfect blocking? 

Sure, I may be just thinking with my heart and being dumb-fan, too!  Depends on the dollars, and on how he looks this season.    

[Dubz41]

17 hours ago, vegas492 said:

I think someone who scores 19TD's is not a complementary piece.  The sad part about him is that our centerpiece is Rodgers due to that contract, so that may mean that for us, he is complementary.  Unless you can have multiple centerpieces.  Like Favre/Green.  

The dude proved last year that he can catch and break games open and he's a threat whenever he touches the ball.

He is scheme dependent, and from all accounts, MLF wants to run first and run often.

Sign me up for 3/$21.  I'd even go 3/$30.  He's gonna get paid somewhere.  I'll actually be sad if he leaves GB after this year.  That is how much I've come to adore Jones.  Very few backs run as quick as he does and make it look so effortless.

When I think about what our offense could be...I just can't help but see many sets that include both Jones and Dillon in the backfield, then motioning Jones out to see what the defense does.  Makes me drool a little.  But just a little.

This^^.  He was incredibly underpaid for last year.  Sign him up for 3-4 years, reward him for last year with a front loaded contract that gives us the ability to release him in two years.  This is a contract we need to get done because of the Covid scenario.  Little to no training camp, will be extra tough for rookies to contribute.  His familiarity with the new offense is crucial for the offense to hit the ground running (pun intended).  I personally believe we are NOT going to see a huge increase in running plays....the difference is that we are NOT going to abandon the run like we did over the last years of the previous regime (I don't care who was calling the plays- we abandoned the run).

So: sign him, that way we achieve continuity on an offense that (complain all you want) went 13-3 last year. The offense will have ONE new starter at RT. Let's GO!

[Shanedorf]

What about existing contracts that run into seasons that could expand to 17 games? Will those be adjusted?

"Yes. Any player who is under contract when the new CBA is signed and remains on that contract in a year in which the league plays 17 games will receive a bonus of 1/17th of his salary if he's on the roster on the date of that 17th game.

So, to make it simple: If your current contract says you're scheduled to earn $17 million in 2021, and the league expands to 17 games that season, you get an extra $1 million as long as you're on the roster on the date of that 17th game."

 

I'm not sure how this is handled for cap purposes, but if they have to cap it - the top 3 look like this for 2021 :

Rodgers would be an extra $ 800K
Adams would be an extra   $ 700K
Z Smith would be an extra  $ 550K

[gizmo2012]

On 6/2/2020 at 4:14 PM, JBURGE said:

We aren't stacked in the WR room for a reason. We chose not to stack it. There's no secret to it, you have to spend the necessary draft capital on them or bring in outside guys. We chose to do neither. We are choosing to stack the RBs, which I don't agree or embrace. If we let both Jones and Williams go next year I will be happy. Spend the 2nd on RBs every 4 years, I love that. Spend a 2 and a 4 in the same draft I don't care. But I don't want to do both

Allowing the Packers first true star RB in many years to walk would be a massive mistake. If it does happen then hopefully AJ Dillon is good but that is a massive reach at this point. Get Clark extended now and then work on Bak and Jones. Don't forget Jones is not only a great RB but a great WR too. 

[festiveonion]

Someone just posted the FA RB's for next offseason. That market is going to be so over-saturated...

 

Not going to provide a crutch for Green Bay's FO (lord knows I'm not on board spending a 2nd on a RB and resigning one in the same year) BUT if we can get Jones or Williams back cheap I'm less opposed than I was.
2 RBs for a 17 game season is a necessity.

[gizmo2012]

On 6/2/2020 at 3:02 PM, MrBobGray said:

Honestly, who even knows anymore?  I'm not sure there's a position I feel less certain on its current value in the NFL.  The top end of the market is basically McCaffrey and Elliott, then a handful of contracts that are clearly regrettable.  Bell is still a good player but there's no way the Jets are happy paying him $13 million a year.   David Johnson is still the fourth highest paid RB by APY, third by guaranteed money per year despite signing his extension two years ago.  I mean, only 7 RBs in the NFL are even making $8 million a year.  

On top of that, Jones has struggled with health and is undersized for the position.  I think he's actually more scheme independent than you would think given his size, he's a great runner on both man and zone runs, but I wonder if the rest of the NFL shares that perception.  It's just hard to know.

Personally, I would love to pay him something like 3/$21M.  I don't see him headed for a big payday unless he repeats last year and stays healthy with big numbers, but he is an explosive and dynamic complementary piece.

Jones is headed for 10 mil plus per year on average and he is worth it. Jones, Rodgers and Adams were the offense last year and Jones proved he is a true star as a running back and as a wide receiver. He may walk but the Packers have no one who is at his level or close. Will the Packers again allow another player Rodgers relies on to walk or be forced off the team. 

[Brat&Beer]

26 minutes ago, festiveonion said:

Someone just posted the FA RB's for next offseason. That market is going to be so over-saturated...

 

Not going to provide a crutch for Green Bay's FO (lord knows I'm not on board spending a 2nd on a RB and resigning one in the same year) BUT if we can get Jones or Williams back cheap I'm less opposed than I was.
2 RBs for a 17 game season is a necessity.

Quote

It will be interesting to see what the going rates for top RB's will be. It could be a buyer's market. Reason is the list of RB's set to hit free agency in 2021 is incredible. It includes: Derrick Henry, Kenyan Drake, Leonard Fournette, Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara,James Conner, Tarik Cohen, Marlon Mack, as well as Jones.

I had posted this awhile back in another thread. It' an incredible list of FA's to be. Not sure how this is going to play out. 

[JBURGE]

1 hour ago, gizmo2012 said:

Jones is headed for 10 mil plus per year on average and he is worth it. Jones, Rodgers and Adams were the offense last year and Jones proved he is a true star as a running back and as a wide receiver. He may walk but the Packers have no one who is at his level or close. Will the Packers again allow another player Rodgers relies on to walk or be forced off the team. 

If someone is willing to pay Aaron Jones $10m a year, he is welcome to leave. There is no way I pay a RB that much, especially with Rodgers cap hit and another 1st round pick at QB's cap hit. RB has turned into a draft and recycle strategy, and I sincerely hope we do this. Unless like @MrBobGray said we can get him for 3/$21m, do that. Even then I would rather just roll with Dillon and another mid round draft pick next year.

And as to your first note, Aaron Jones is not a great WR. He is an above average receiving back.

[AlexGreen#20]

2 hours ago, gizmo2012 said:

Jones is headed for 10 mil plus per year on average and he is worth it. Jones, Rodgers and Adams were the offense last year and Jones proved he is a true star as a running back and as a wide receiver. He may walk but the Packers have no one who is at his level or close. Will the Packers again allow another player Rodgers relies on to walk or be forced off the team. 

On what basis is Jones worth 10 million per year?

[craig]

Management may have a better idea after this season.  *If* they love Love and everything they see from him, and *if* Rodgers declines this year, they may be more comfortable expecting to switch QB's after 2021.  If so, that frees up a lot of discretionary dollars for 2022 and 23.  If you sign Jones during 2021, the first year of any FA contract has a modest cap hit.  His cap wouldn't really hit until 22, by which time there may be more dollars available than we are accustomed to.  

[vegas492]

Top 5 RB money...$13.46M/year.

Top 10 RB money....$10.44M/year.

Top 15 RB money...$8.64M/year.

From Spotrac based on 2020 average contract for RB.

Guessing agent wants top 10 money.  Guessing GB taking a "wait and see" approach.

For me?  If he would take an average of 8M/year over 3 years, and have 2-4M/year in bonus for production, I'd do it.  I'm making him earn the top 10 money, not just giving it to him based on one year.  And honestly, I feel like Dillon is going to vulture some of those goalline TD's......  And a lot of snaps.