Way too early 2020 predictions

[Bolts223]

AFC East

1. Patriots (11-5-0) [Assuming Brady come back]

2. Bills (10-6-0)

3. Dolphins (7-9-0)

4. Jets (5-11-0)

 

AFC North

1. Ravens (12-4-0)

2. Steelers (10-6-0) [If Ben is back healthy and well]

3. Browns (7-9-0)

4. Bengals (4-12-0)

 

AFC South

1. Titans (10-6-0) [Assuming they tag/sign Tannehill]

2. Texans (8-8-0)

3. Colts (6-10-0)

4. Jaguars (4-12-0)

 

AFC West

1. Chiefs (12-4-0)

2. Chargers (8-8-0)

3. Broncos (7-9-0)

4. Raiders (5-11-0)

 

NFC East

1. Eagles (10-6-0)

2. Cowboys (9-7-0)

3. Giants (6-10-0)

4. Redskins (3-13-0)

 

NFC North

1. Vikings (11-5-0)

2. Packers (10-6-0)

3. Bears (8-8-0)

4. Lions (5-11-0)

 

NFC South

1. Saints (12-4-0) [Assuming Brees comes back, if not this division will be like the 2014 edition]

2. Buccaneers (8-8-0)

3. Falcons (5-11-0)

4. Panthers (3-13-0)

 

NFC West

1. 49ers (12-4-0)

2. Seahawks (9-7-0)

3. Cardinals (7-9-0)

4. Rams (6-10-0)

[dtait93]

AFC South will be better than everybody predicts, again. 

[Magnifico]

From a quick glance you've basically got no change in the playoff qualifying teams at all bar the Steelers qualifying depending on tiebreakers. That doesn't really happen in the NFL at all.

[Bolts223]

Just now, Magnifico said:

From a quick glance you've basically got no change in the playoff qualifying teams at all bar the Steelers qualifying depending on tiebreakers. That doesn't really happen in the NFL at all.

I mean in the AFC the division winners in 2019 were literally the exact same as in 2018. The 2017 wild cards were the 2019 wild cards.

[BayRaider]

This isn’t bold enough IMO. Every year we see teams you didn’t see coming. My candidates this year the Washington Redskins with Alex Smith winning the QB job, Tampa Bay depending on their QB situation (even with Winston, 10-6 could be their record), and whatever team Brady lands on between the Chargers and Raiders (unless he re-signs with the Pats). 

[Bolts223]

3 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

This isn’t bold enough IMO. Every year we see teams you didn’t see coming. My candidates this year the Washington Redskins with Alex Smith winning the QB job, Tampa Bay depending on their QB situation (even with Winston, 10-6 could be their record), and whatever team Brady lands on between the Chargers and Raiders (unless he re-signs with the Pats). 

Yeah but if you predict a random team to breakout you are more likely to pick a team that picks in the top 5-10 than you are to actually pick the correct breakout team.

Alex Smith will be 36 years old, two years removed from his last time playing and he no longer has Andy  Reid's offense or the Chiefs elite skill players. Not to mention coming off of a devastating injury.

Plus the Redskins would be stupid to think that starting him solves anything for them long term. May as well see if Haskins can develop at all in year 2 and then cut your losses and draft a QB next year if he sucks.

Edited February 4, 2020 by Bolts223

[BayRaider]

Just now, Bolts223 said:

Yeah but if you predict a random team to breakout you are more likely to pick a team that picks in the top 5-10 than you are to actually pick the correct breakout team.

I’d rather aim for the fences and try to be right then play it conservatively and be 100% wrong though. You are aiming for a safe 80% guaranteed instead of shooting for 100% but risking only being 60% accurate basically. 
 

At least one of those teams picking in the Top 10 will make the playoffs 100%.  Probably two honestly. And another in the Top 15. 

[Bolts223]

Just now, BayRaider said:

I’d rather aim for the fences and try to be right then play it conservatively and be 100% wrong though. You are aiming for a safe 80% guaranteed instead of shooting for 100% but risking only being 60% accurate basically. 
 

At least one of those teams picking in the Top 10 will make the playoffs 100%.  Probably two honestly. And another in the Top 15. 

Think about it this way.

You're making a march madness bracket.

Is there a probable chance some team nobody is expecting will end up in the Final 4? Yes.

But if you pick any random 7-11 seed to make the final 4 you're far more likely to be wrong on them than you are picking a 1-2 seed.

Same logic applies here.

Will there be a breakout team? Yes, probably. But if I pick any random team picking in the top 10 right now I'm far more likely to have them be picking in the top 10 again than me picking a team that made the playoffs last year and generally has a similar returning cast.

[BayRaider]

3 minutes ago, Bolts223 said:

Think about it this way.

You're making a march madness bracket.

Is there a probable chance some team nobody is expecting will end up in the Final 4? Yes.

But if you pick any random 7-11 seed to make the final 4 you're far more likely to be wrong on them than you are picking a 1-2 seed.

Same logic applies here.

Will there be a breakout team? Yes, probably. But if I pick any random team picking in the top 10 right now I'm far more likely to have them be picking in the top 10 again than me picking a team that made the playoffs last year and generally has a similar returning cast.

The goal is to be 100% right though. What you are saying is correct, but what I am saying is also correct. Yes it’s likely you’ll lose your bracket early, but there’s a small chance you can win the entire bracket, which is the goal. If you don’t pick any sleeper teams, you have already 100% lost your bracket, because there will always always be teams making the playoffs that no one sees coming. 

Edited February 4, 2020 by BayRaider

[ET80]

31 minutes ago, dtait93 said:

AFC South will be better than everybody predicts, again. 

Let em sleep, baby. Let em sleep. 

[Bolts223]

2 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

The goal is to be 100% right though. What you are saying is correct, but what I an saying is also correct. Yes it’s likely you’ll lose your bracket early, but there’s a small chance you can win the entire bracket, which is the goal. If you don’t pick any sleeper teams, you have already 100% lost your bracket, because there will always always be teams making the playoffs that no one sees coming. 

I'm more likely to be 100% right this way than randomly picking a 4-5 win team to make the playoffs.

The chances of being 100% right on anything like this are astronomically low no matter what you predict because there are hundred/thousands different potential outcomes.

Edited February 4, 2020 by Bolts223

[stl4life07]

@Bolts223 Im willing to bet anything the Rams arent finishing (6-10). 

First off just moving into the new stadium alone is going to from a renewed energy level get this team fired up. Then to put last season behind them knowing that even in a down season they were literally a Zeurlein missed field goal in Seattle away from finishing (10-6) and making the playoffs. They were the only team to finish with a winning record and not make the playoffs. They will come back for vengeance.

Then we look at the schedule. The Rams have a very easy schedule. Most of their hard games will come at home. Dallas, Chicago, New England, and the Jets all have to come to LA. Thats alot of east coast to west coast trips for those teams and its not going to be easy for them. The Rams toughest road games are at Philly and at Buffalo. We know the Rams always play the Seahawks tough and they have shown they can play with the Niners and they own the Cards. So again Im positive, unless a mass unit of injuries happen AGAIN, which one has to just think lady luck is going to shine on the Rams next season when it comes to health because this season it wasnt too kind on the injuries especially on the oline. So yeah at the very very worst I can see the Rams finishing (9-7) again but Im saying (11-5) at least. 

Edited February 4, 2020 by stl4life07

[BayRaider]

Just now, Bolts223 said:

I'm more likely to be 100% right this way than randomly picking a 4-5 win team to make the playoffs.

No you aren’t lol. No one ever picking all favorites to make the playoffs or bracket winners will be 100% right. Not even close. 

[Bolts223]

1 minute ago, stl4life07 said:

@Bolts223 Im willing to bet anything the Rams arent finishing (6-10). 

First off just moving into the new stadium alone is going to from a renewed energy level get this team fired up. Then to put last season behind them knowing that even in a down season they were literally a Zeurlein missed field goal in Seattle away from finishing (10-6) and making the playoffs. They were the only team to finish with a winning record and not make the playoffs. They will come back for vengeance.

Then we look at the schedule. The Rams have a very easy schedule. Most of their hard games will come at home. Dallas, Chicago, New England, and the Jets all have to come to LA. Thats alot of east coast to west coast trips for those teams and its not going to be easy. The Rams toughest road games are at Philly and at Buffalo. We know the Rams always play the Seahawks tough and they have shown they can play with the Niners and they own the Cards. So again Im positive, unless a mass unit of injuries happen AGAIN, which one has to just think lady luck is going to shine on the Rams next season when it comes to health because this season it wasnt too kind on the injuries especially on the oline. So yeah at the very very worst I can see the Rams finishing (9-7) again but Im saying (11-5) at least. 

Not sure why.

They'll have 6 extremely tough divisional games.

It'll be tough to do anything to drastically improve their o-line given the lack of draft capital cap space they have. Especially if they give Ramsey a long term deal.

The loss of Wade Phillips is going to be significant for the defense.

Just like the Chargers you don't really have any kind of HFA anyways. The 49ers, Seahawks, Giants, Cowboys, Patriots, Jets and Bears games are all going to be loaded with opposing fans.

[RaidersAreOne]

Booooo.