Jump to content
Nastradamus

Another offseason mock while I'm bored

Recommended Posts

Ok, been listening to a lot of the buzz and analyzing everything a lot the last few weeks and a few things seem to stand out about our offseason

- Upgrading all 3 phases of the D is essential

- Okudah is the favorite for our 1

- We likely will pull a trade down

- We likely will not keep Graham, but its not over

- The focus inside the Lions building in terms of FA seems to be aggressively adding a lot of competent pieces, in the 3ish to maybe 7ish million dollar range. 

 

We start with around 48 mil, draft is 11, Quinn likes to keep a bit. 30 mil to play with basically. Remember though, he likes to do a cap hit in year one lower than the AAV

I think Snacks stays

Sign in FA

Jamie Collins, MIchael Brockers, Rodney Mcleod, Randall Cobb, Jeff Driskel, Kenny Wiggins,Mckissic(tender)

Draft - trade to 5 for 26 and Miami's 2021 2nd

1(5) - Okudah

1(26) - (trade up to 12 using 35) - Derrick Brown - I think Brown slips through the cracks due to his best skill having lost some value, but we still value it a lot. Oakland doesn't have a

2nd round pick from the Khalil Mack trade. 

3rd - Gandy-Golden - Future Marvin replacement, insurance for short term injuries as well. 

4th - Robert Hunt G/OT, Louisiana - One of the major analysts called him the meanest OL in the draft. That's what we need on our right side. Plus he's multiple. 

5th - A.J. Dillon - Physical runner who breaks tackles

5th(Diggs) - Trey Adams - High upside OT with injury issues. I think we can afford a swing like this

6th - I'm likely looking for a LB here, but haven't really found a dude I love just yet haha. Maybe a slot TE

Leaves you with 

QB - Stafford,Driskel,Blough

RB - KJ,Bo,Mckissic,Ty,Dillon(1 misses cut)

FB - Bawden

TE - Hock,James(locked into him for at least a year), Nauta

WR - Kenny,Marvin,Cobb,AGG,Hall,Fulgham/Lacy

OT - Decker,Wagner,Crosby,Adams, Nelson

OG - Dahl,Wiggins,Hunt,Garnett

C - Frank, Beau B

DT - Snacks,Brown,Brockers,Hand,Atkins

EDGE - Flowers,Kennard,Romeo,Bryant (Collins)

LB - Tavai,Davis,Jones,JRM,rookie (Collins)

S Walker,Mcleod,Harris,CJ, camp bodies

CB - Slay, Okudah, Coleman, Amani, Ford, Agnew

Slay and Kenny get extensions. Kenny around 5/85, Slay around Marcus Peters' 3/42. Slay's probably has a void year on the back end and they include 2020 and call it a 5 

year deal knowing Quinn. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not sure if I love it or not.  I love landing both Okudah and Brown.  But would I rather have the extra 1st and second vs drafting Brown?  I'm not sure how I feel about it. I love OL whose description includes the word "mean".  I think I prefer that over athletic, lol. Love a power rb.  All and all I like it the positions you grabbed in the draft, just not sure I like trading up for Brown.  Good job though.

Edited by LionArkie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

I'm not sure if I love it or not.  I love landing both Okudah and Brown.  But would I rather have the extra 1st and second vs drafting Brown?  I'm not sure how I feel about it. I love OL whose description includes the word mean.  I think I prefer that over athletic, lol. Love a power rb.  All and all I like it the positions you grabbed in the draft, just not sure I like trading up for Brown.  Good job though.

You would only have an extra 2nd, and much lower of a first if you dont make that move.  I see what you are saying but in essence, we are moving #3 for Okudah and Brown, given we get Miami's 2nd next year.  You could always use that and another pick to move back into the 2nd if you felt someone dropped.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The trade value from 35 to #26 seems out of whack. We'd have to give up #35 and a future 2nd for sure. 

It all depends on how you want to look at things. Trading down from 3 to 5 and gaining the extra 1st and future 2nd could be treated like playing with house money. Taking a guy like Brown, who was under consideration at #3, for basically the cost of our 2nd rounder (since the 2021 2nd is "house money") isn't a terrible idea. 

The rest of the draft I'm just unsure of. This doesn't feel like a wholesale change from last years roster. Okudah and Brown are premium guys. I don't know how much I love double dipping on OL when we need younger guys at LB and we don't have additional picks. 

I'm intrigued to do a deeper dive into the RB's. I'm leaning towards Kelley but I've been interested in Dillon since last year. I just wonder about his foot speed at his size. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Speaking of Dillon, he was recorded at 6'1 and 239 lbs running a 4.56. I have my own spreadsheet with a Height and Weight Adjusted Speed Score (HASS). I am waiting for the combine before I update my worksheet. Dillon's score is 114.47, which is nearly the same score as Jonathan Taylor 4.44 at 222 lbs and better than JK Dobbins 4.42 at 212 lbs. Derrick Henry at 6'3 and 247 lbs ran a 4.57 but has a HASS score of 123.41, which is an elite level. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Speaking of Dillon, he was recorded at 6'1 and 239 lbs running a 4.56. I have my own spreadsheet with a Height and Weight Adjusted Speed Score (HASS). I am waiting for the combine before I update my worksheet. Dillon's score is 114.47, which is nearly the same score as Jonathan Taylor 4.44 at 222 lbs and better than JK Dobbins 4.42 at 212 lbs. Derrick Henry at 6'3 and 247 lbs ran a 4.57 but has a HASS score of 123.41, which is an elite level. 

Ok, help me out here, what relevance does HASS have and do people use this?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nevermind, I looked it up.  HASS would not apply to running backs, this is why I questioned it, it would be used on WR andTE, which makes more sense.

Height-adjusted Speed Score (HaSS) – first discussed by Shawn Siegele on his Money In The Banana Stand blog, it builds on Bill Barwell’s Speed Score concept to create a more relevant metric for wide receivers and tight ends. Unlike running backs, weight and height are correlated to wide receiver and tight end production, because height expands the player’s catch radius. HaSS layers height into the traditional speed score equation by also dividing the player’s height by the average wide receiver height: 73.0 inches (6’1”) or average tight end height: 76.4 inches (6’4 5/12’’). This results in a measure of a player’s speed that also incorporates a premium on both body weight and body length.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/terms-glossary/

 

****Edit -- I see you described the speed score which still seems like a gimmicky stat, but what do I know.

( Speed Score – Bill Barnwell first posited the metric in Pro Football Prospectus to better predict running back success. The formula is (weight*200) / (40-time^4). It factors weight into a player’s 40-yard dash time assigning a premium to fast times run by bigger, often stronger, running backs. )

Edited by LionArkie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

Ok, help me out here, what relevance does HASS have and do people use this?

It is one piece in an overall picture. There's also an explosion score which is, Bench Press + Vertical + Broad Jump and measured on a H/W basis. Agility score (3 cone + short shuttle). It helps to compare guys of different heights and builds in terms of their overall athletic ability. I also gather their production and bake that into the overall cake. I then have these numbers matched up against every player at their position from the combine since 2011. There's different colours for the top 5%, 10%, 20%, etc. It's not a perfect system as some guys are tremendous athletes and it doesn't show up on the field. Some guys find more production in the NFL vs in college. I'll usually watch film of guys that have been highlighted to get a better feel for them and see if what the numbers are saying shows up on tape. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

Nevermind, I looked it up.  HASS would not apply to running backs, this is why I questioned it, it would be used on WR andTE, which makes more sense.

Height-adjusted Speed Score (HaSS) – first discussed by Shawn Siegele on his Money In The Banana Stand blog, it builds on Bill Barwell’s Speed Score concept to create a more relevant metric for wide receivers and tight ends. Unlike running backs, weight and height are correlated to wide receiver and tight end production, because height expands the player’s catch radius. HaSS layers height into the traditional speed score equation by also dividing the player’s height by the average wide receiver height: 73.0 inches (6’1”) or average tight end height: 76.4 inches (6’4 5/12’’). This results in a measure of a player’s speed that also incorporates a premium on both body weight and body length.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/terms-glossary/

 

****Edit -- I see you described the speed score which still seems like a gimmicky stat, but what do I know.

( Speed Score – Bill Barnwell first posited the metric in Pro Football Prospectus to better predict running back success. The formula is (weight*200) / (40-time^4). It factors weight into a player’s 40-yard dash time assigning a premium to fast times run by bigger, often stronger, running backs. )

I make that adjustment for all players. Derrick Henry running at 6'3 and 247 lbs is different than a guy running at 5'11 and 247 lbs. I let my worksheet figure out the average's based on what has been input. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

It is one piece in an overall picture. There's also an explosion score which is, Bench Press + Vertical + Broad Jump and measured on a H/W basis. Agility score (3 cone + short shuttle). It helps to compare guys of different heights and builds in terms of their overall athletic ability. I also gather their production and bake that into the overall cake. I then have these numbers matched up against every player at their position from the combine since 2011. There's different colours for the top 5%, 10%, 20%, etc. It's not a perfect system as some guys are tremendous athletes and it doesn't show up on the field. Some guys find more production in the NFL vs in college. I'll usually watch film of guys that have been highlighted to get a better feel for them and see if what the numbers are saying shows up on tape. 

 

Hmmm....my hobbies include taking kids to baseball practice, and try to get out of washing dishes. I feel like I need to work on myself after reading this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, LionArkie said:

Hmmm....my hobbies include taking kids to baseball practice, and try to get out of washing dishes. I feel like I need to work on myself after reading this.

My son is only 5 months old. I'll be in those shoes soon enough! This really isn't anything remarkable. It's really more like "I'm bored at lunch and try to figure stuff out". There is far too much effort put into it than it's truly worth. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

I would be ecstatic to land Okudah and Brown. That would be insane.

I think they have the ammo to do something similar if they are able to pull the Miami trade back. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m not sure I’m a fan of picks 3-6 (other than rolling the dice on Dillion and Adams) but who cares. If we could land Okudah (who I think is the second best player in this draft) and Brown. Sign me up. Sign me way up. Plus I actually think the trades are feasible. If Quinn doesn’t mess this up trades like this could really happen. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×