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Packers Regression

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On paper, the 2019 Packers  are the 2nd biggest "overperformance" of the 2000s and beyond from a wins perspective.  They overperformed their point differential by over 3 wins (3.29).

 

So, Packers would have to really overcome the trend to make it back to the 1/2 seed.  Why are we the 2012 Colts or the 2014 Cardinals rather than the 2016 Raiders or 2015 Panthers?

I think there's 2 or 3 things in our favor right off the bat, but would be curious about other thoughts:

1) Experience and stability at QB.  Outside of the Manning Colts (who did fairly well below) these teams don't have good QBs and relied on a good year from their defense.  Defense is historically much less stable from year to year than offense.  And QB is the most stable and predictable part of an offense.  And yes, Rodgers wasn't great  this year.  But he's still an edge.

2) Stability and improvement in the offensive scheme and in the overall personnel.  Despite the 13-3 record, this was a brand new team which underwent massive changes on the defensive  personnel and overall coaching staff.  If this is indeed a great staff, they will do some serious self-scouting this offseason and come back with reinforcement of the stuff that works and should work again, as well as additional wrinkles that suit the players they have.  This staff has a much better feel for who their players are now, and they can start to bake in the concepts that work best for them as core concepts for the team.

3) there aren't any long term injuries at this point which carry over from this year to next.

 

Team W L PF PA Pythagorean Wins Pyth Difference    Following Year Wins change in wins
2012 Indianapolis Colts+ 11.00 5.00 357 387 7.20 (3.80) 11.00 0.00
2019 Green Bay Packers 13 3 376 313 9.77 (3.23)                                  ???            ???
2016 Oakland Raiders+ 12.00 4.00 416 385 8.79 (3.21) 6.00 -6.00
2009 Indianapolis Colts+ 14.00 2.00 416 307 10.88 (3.12) 10.00 -4.00
2011 Kansas City Chiefs 7.00 9.00 212 338 4.07 (2.93) 2.00 -5.00
2011 Green Bay Packers* 15.00 1.00 560 359 12.22 (2.78) 11.00 -4.00
2013 New York Jets 8.00 8.00 290 387 5.29 (2.71) 4.00 -4.00
2014 Arizona Cardinals+ 11.00 5.00 310 299 8.34 (2.66) 13.00 2.00
2017 Buffalo Bills+ 9 7 302 359 6.35 (2.65) 6.00 -3.00
2015 Carolina Panthers* 15.00 1.00 500 308 12.40 (2.60) 6.00 -9.00
2016 Houston Texans+ 9 7 279 328 6.49 (2.51) 4.00 -5.00
2016 Miami Dolphins+ 10.00 6.00 363 380 7.54 (2.46) 6.00 -4.00
2017 Pittsburgh Steelers* 13 3 406 308 10.63 (2.37) 9.00 -4.00
2006 Indianapolis Colts* 12.00 4.00 427 360 9.71 (2.29) 13.00 1.00
2015 Denver Broncos* 12.00 4.00 355 296 9.73 (2.27) 9.00 -3.00
2011 Denver Broncos* 8.00 8.00 309 390 5.77 (2.23) 13.00 5.00
2008 Miami Dolphins* 11.00 5.00 345 317 8.82 (2.18) 7.00 -4.00

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The injury luck factor will be there.

Defensively I do think we have reason for optimism. When projecting appreciation/depreciation age is always factor 1. The Smiths are our oldest starters and they are going to be 28 next year. Other than that the rest of the squad is young. If the D stays healthy, it should improve. We should improve barring injuries or significant drop from Blake/T Williams replacements.

 

Offensively is kind of a mixed bag. AR is getting older. Bulaga might be gone or is old. Bak seems to have nagging injuries. I expect Jones to regress. Our wrs should be better (young+talent infusion).

 

I think we might win less games next year but in general have a better roster

 

 

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Doubt we’ll ever be as fortunate as we were this year with injuries. Close wins. Pretty light schedule. The regression is inevitable 

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7 minutes ago, FinneasGage said:

Doubt we’ll ever be as fortunate as we were this year with injuries. Close wins. Pretty light schedule. The regression is inevitable 

To think GB got within a foot of having home-field advantage this year too!  Man, just a crazy year.  Regression does seem inevitable, and I'm not as concerned about what the overall record looks like, as much as just getting into the playoffs, where anything can happen.

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I'll take less wins for a more complete team. Fix the middle of the defense, and get some WR help and I think we will be in a much better position.

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2 minutes ago, Toddfather said:

I'll take less wins for a more complete team. Fix the middle of the defense, and get some WR help and I think we will be in a much better position.

You said that more succinctly than me.

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I think this is a bit of an overreaction to say the least. FFS if we can stop the run and find a 2nd target for Rodgers, this team is very dangerous. We've solved the pass rush, we have an underrated secondary IMHO, and lo and behold we can actually run the damn ball now.

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If Aaron is of the 2019 variety, regression is likely. If 2020 Aaron finds more comfort in year 2 of this scheme and has more playmakers, we've upgraded the most important position on the field. 

Like anything with football, it's mostly dependent on QB play. Outside of SF game, this defense was good enough to win it all with the kind of offense we're accustomed to. 

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I think a strong argument can be made that with some reasonable improvements at WR, IDL, and ILB, the Packers are a top three team next year (GB, SF, and Seattle). The draft is set up to stock the WR position, and FA has some good IDL. I think we win the NFC North again. Whether we can get by SF remains to be seen, but Jimmy G didn't look all that good in the Super Bowl. Wilson is probably the best QB of the three, but I would take Rodgers over Jimmy G. 

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3 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

If Aaron is of the 2019 variety, regression is likely. If 2020 Aaron finds more comfort in year 2 of this scheme and has more playmakers, we've upgraded the most important position on the field. 

Like anything with football, it's mostly dependent on QB play. Outside of SF game, this defense was good enough to win it all with the kind of offense we're accustomed to. 

Still need to do something about the DL though ... agree otherwise.

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Need to think about bringing in a QB, maybe not our next starter, but some insurance for a few game injury. I don't know if Boyle can do more than finish a game at this point.

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I don’t think we regress.  I think we win 14 next year.  Unless the Lions get Chase Young.  If the Lions get him, he will wreck us.  

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The defense needs to get stronger up the middle with IDL and ILB upgrades. We were owned in the middle of the field this year.  I think we can all agree that Blake was adequate, but never had the ability to be a tone setting difference maker. I think year two on the offensive side of the ball will be more consistent and proficient, hopefully with the addition of an explosive slot player. That said, I do not expect 13-3 again, but I will be happy to win the North and have a shot.

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We will get the talent undoubtedly to look better on paper. I don't see the offense getting any worse in 2020, 2nd year in Lafleurs scheme, and a couple new weapons, we should be a lot better. Of course Rodgers needs to be more accurate and trust his receivers more, but it's just really hard for me to see the Offense get worse, even with Rodgers decline. If he starts to throw more picks, yes we will regress immensely on offense. But for all the grief Rodgers has gotten over the past 2 seasons, he still takes care of the ball well like he's always has. Guy needs to work on his accuracy, because he still makes pretty good reads, he just misses wide open guys. 

Defense, we just need a consistent defense and I think we're back in the NFCCG at the very least. We're probably gonna get a new DL to sure up the Front 7, and get some other depth pieces. What kind of Pettine are we going to get though? An aggressive style Pettine we had year 1, or a soft coverage rush 4 year 2 Pettine. I'd like him to get more aggressive again. I don't know what we're going to do at ILB, but at least get a decent guy there. Cheaper than Blake.

Basically I don't think we are going to be starved of talent that makes us regress. Just comes down to the health and execution of our team on both sides of the ball. 

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