Packers Regression

[Joe]

49 minutes ago, Pugger said:

We also have to be better at containing fast athletic TEs over the middle.  This has been a problem for a while.

Agreed, but that falls in line with upgrading the ILB and Safety position. We did a much better job with it this year compared to years past.

[Leader]

2 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Receiver talent wasn't the reason our offense failed in the playoffs. When our good receiver got hurt, the offense played better. 

Yeah - because we switched reliance to another player - that you dont want to pay. Listen - nobody's saying AR played lights out. At least no posts I've read - but at what point have you made your point? At what point have you pretty much covered everything.....and double/triple repeated yourself? You're entitled. Not in question - but havent we heard it all before by now?

[craig]

On 2/6/2020 at 1:35 AM, pacman5252 said:

1.  The close game argument is legit but misleading. GB was in games they controlled. 538 did an analysis of coin flip games (50% shot of winning under 5 minutes). GB was in 3 and went 2-1. There were a lot of misleading box scores (team needing to drive whole field to tie, late tds to bring within a score).
Thanks

3- GB naturally has a plus TO margin. (The Vegas guys are partially wrong on TOs, fumbles are luck, ints are not). The formula is easy;

AR + average defense  = positive TO margin.

VERY GOOD POINT.  I think the magnitude of the turnover advantage seemed unsustainable even for a Rodgers team.  But yeah, at least some advantage should continue next year.  And I don't think we were getting that fluky-large advantage during the second half, either. 

To some degree, I'd almost think the TO-advantage has a chance to improve again (relative to playoffs and second half), and to be pretty significant again.  The vulnerability of the run defense didn't really contribute to turnovers.  *IF* an adjustment and addition or two on defense was able to better stuff the run, obviously more turnovers arise on 3rd-and-long than on 2nd-and-4.

And thinking optimistically *IF* the offense did improve (RT didn't devolve, TE and WR both improved...), turnovers obviously increase when teams are playing catchup and taking more risks.  So *IF* both the scoring and the run-stopping were to both improve, both of those might prompt increased odds of turnovers.  

I do agree with some of the age analysis on O m, Should be countered a bit by the defense though.

This too is a good point.  There are some youngish defensive guys who might have age-based improvement.   (Although I was kinda scared when Gute mentioned both Josh jackson and Burks.  Yes, it would be awesome if suddenly they emerged as useful competent NFL players.  But I'm kinda nervous that if you don't have it, you don't have it, and they probably don't.)  Obviously we don't draft offensive players much.  I know there's been a bunch of optimism that Sternberger will emerge as a player.  But man, that would be so fun if somehow he did.  And Jenkins can get better, too.  But yeah, can't depend entirely on new personnel; absolutely need some carryover young players to improve and become useful, perhaps unexpectedly.

 

[Pugger]

2 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

No, he was not.

And on the whole Brees sucked until they improved their roster?  Also not true.

Since Rodgers has been starting, Drew’s completion percentage never dropped below 63%.  His yards per attempt never dropped below 7 yards per attempt.  Other than the one year his YPA dropped to 7, it never dropped below 7.5.  

Rodgers completed below 7.5 yards per attempt every single year since 2014.  

If your QB needs more than an elite WR, elite RB, elite LT to be elite, he was never elite.

OIC.  Rodgers was never elite.  Got it.  We should ship his sorry tail out of town while is worth something and hope when we get a top 5 draft pick after a couple of losing seasons that that pick isn't another Trubisky.

Be careful what you wish for.  Right now there aren't 32 competent starting QBs in the league.  When you have one, even if he isn't what he once was, you ride him as long as you can because after he retires we might be QB purgatory like those years between Starr and Favre.

Edited February 7, 2020 by Pugger

[AlexGreen#20]

24 minutes ago, Pugger said:

OIC.  Rodgers was never elite.  Got it.  We should ship his sorry tail out of town while is worth something and hope when we get a top 5 draft pick after a couple of losing seasons that that pick isn't another Trubisky.

Be careful what you wish for.  Right now there aren't 32 competent starting QBs in the league.  When you have one, even if he isn't what he once was, you ride him as long as you can because after he retires we might be QB purgatory like those years between Starr and Favre.

We can't ship him out of town. It was impossible to trade or cut him before the restructure. It's now even more impossible.

There's a history developing that suggests the bolded might be the exact opposite.

[MacReady]

34 minutes ago, Pugger said:

OIC.  Rodgers was never elite.  Got it.  We should ship his sorry tail out of town while is worth something and hope when we get a top 5 draft pick after a couple of losing seasons that that pick isn't another Trubisky.

Be careful what you wish for.  Right now there aren't 32 competent starting QBs in the league.  When you have one, even if he isn't what he once was, you ride him as long as you can because after he retires we might be QB purgatory like those years between Starr and Favre.

Cool your jets, grumpy.  I said he wasn’t elite when we signed him to his elite contract.

[Norm]

We're in purgatory right now

[coachbuns]

1 hour ago, Outpost31 said:

Cool your jets, grumpy.  I said he wasn’t elite when we signed him to his elite contract.

Probably true.  He's above average now - not elite.  That being said, don't blame Rodgers ... blame Packer brass.  If your boss gave you a huge raise due to your previous overall performance you'd take it.  That's exactly what Rodgers did ...  right or wrong that's how the NFL does business.  He is not ever going to be elite again.  The team has to get better around him ... that's reality.

[MacReady]

I will blame whomever I want to blame.  

[mikemike778]

8 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Do players ever really perform better in their 37 year old season than their 36 year old season barring a significant injury the previous year?

Hard to imagine his garbage deep ball getting better. 

 

Congratulations my friend.  I'm not sure it is possible for anyone to miss a point more than you managed to. Good work.

I didn't say he was going to become a better player. I said that the passing game is largely about timing.  With the second year of a system, you would expect the timing of the passing game to be more in sync - a lot of the time, the timing seemed to be all over the show. I also said that it is the weakest group of receivers he has ever played with and there is a good chance that isn't going to be the case next year. All these things should make Rodgers job easier next year and there is therefore a realistic chance that the passing game will be significantly improved.

For someone who makes out to be analytical, its astonishing how blinkered you can be.

 

[MacReady]

2 hours ago, mikemike778 said:

Congratulations my friend.  

You’re not acting very friendly.

[Fox_NFLs_GG]

4 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

I will blame whomever I want to blame.  

 

[Fox_NFLs_GG]

9 hours ago, Joe said:

Agreed, but that falls in line with upgrading the ILB and Safety position. We did a much better job with it this year compared to years past.

I think the Safety position is fine, it was ILB and having to play to cover up the weakness. Also a better DL would help.

[coachbuns]

4 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

I will blame whomever I want to blame.  

Shocking!

[Pugger]

19 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

I will blame whomever I want to blame.  

Yes, Rodgers is to blame but he isn't the ONLY one to blame.  Football is the ultimate team sport but the QB gets too much praise when things go well and too much blame when things go south.