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HTTRDynasty

2020 Free Agency Thread

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1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Honestly, CB is such an unstable position from year-to-year, I wouldn't give any CB a large contract.  Even guys like Jalen Ramsey, Marcus Peters and Patrick Peterson have had seasons where they have looked trash.  PFF says coverage is more important than pass rush, but even they admit how low the correlation of CB grades are from year-to-year.  It's just not worth spending a huge amount of your cap on a position that can be so feast or famine.  I would just keep drafting CBs early and often instead of handing out a top 10 positional salary to a guy who likely won't be worth it.

We have been drafting CB often not so early but we’ve gotten some good play from mid round players

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3 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

Well it would depend on the rotation.  Let's look at the defensive snap counts from the previous two years:

So it looks like there are about 4,750 defensive line snaps to go around.  Let's make a projection on what could be available for Kerrigan:

 

Snap Count Projection - 2020 Season

Total snaps - 4,750

Sweat - 825

Young - 825

Payne - 800

Allen - 775

Ioannidis - 500

Anderson - 200

Others - 100

 

Remainder - 725 snaps

 

So that leaves 725ish snaps available for Kerrigan, or you could put some more towards Ioannidis (I lowered his snap count from this year because I don't think he will get as much playing time in a 4-3 alignment).  Even if you give 200 more snaps to Ioannidis, that still leaves 525 snaps for Kerrigan, which would still be a significant role.  Also, these projections do not take into consideration injuries, which could thrust Kerrigan back into the starting lineup.  

But you’re using numbers from a 3-4 defense (using 5 “DL” on the field in the base formation) and trying to apply them to what will be a 4-3 defense, with only 4 DL on the field. 

In taking a look at some of the familiar/good 4-3 defenses, it looks like Philadelphia, for example, split 4062 snaps among their DL players. Minnesota got 4350 snaps from theirs, San Francisco got 3894, Kansas City got 4313, Seattle got 4172 from theirs, Dallas got 4280 from theirs, New Orleans got 4038. 

In other words, I think you’re probably overestimating the number of snaps our DL players will get by at least 400-500 snaps.

Pretty much as a rule, these teams’ 3rd DEs are getting somewhere between 400-450 snaps. It’s remarkable actually, every single team had their 3rd DE in the middle of that range. Dallas was a bit of an outlier there, which I think is because they had Michael Bennett and Kerry Hyder kick inside and play as small DTs fairly frequently. Are we going to do that? We’re already going to be stretched in trying to get Allen/Ioannidis/Payne/Settle the snaps they deserve as it is — I don’t think it would be wise to cut their reps even further in order to force Kerrigan onto the field. 

Is 425 snaps of Kerrigan worth almost $12M to this team? And more importantly, are those 425 snaps, at that price, worth more than perhaps a 3rd round pick?

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4 minutes ago, e16bball said:

In other words, I think you’re probably overestimating the number of snaps our DL players will get by at least 400-500 snaps.

Hmmm, that's a good point, good catch.  We both came to a pretty similar conclusion though.  

5 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Is 425 snaps of Kerrigan worth almost $12M to this team? And more importantly, are those 425 snaps, at that price, worth more than perhaps a 3rd round pick?

I would give him an extension adding two more seasons to his deal, which could spread out his cap hit a bit.  I do think he's worth keeping around.  

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3 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Honestly, CB is such an unstable position from year-to-year, I wouldn't give any CB a large contract.  Even guys like Jalen Ramsey, Marcus Peters and Patrick Peterson have had seasons where they have looked trash.  PFF says coverage is more important than pass rush, but even they admit how low the correlation of CB grades are from year-to-year.  It's just not worth spending a huge amount of your cap on a position that can be so feast or famine.  I would just keep drafting CBs early and often instead of handing out a top 10 positional salary to a guy who likely won't be worth it.

Or just put JFM on the outside where he belongs and you don't have to worry about it for years! :D

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5 hours ago, e16bball said:

But you’re using numbers from a 3-4 defense (using 5 “DL” on the field in the base formation) and trying to apply them to what will be a 4-3 defense, with only 4 DL on the field. 

In taking a look at some of the familiar/good 4-3 defenses, it looks like Philadelphia, for example, split 4062 snaps among their DL players. Minnesota got 4350 snaps from theirs, San Francisco got 3894, Kansas City got 4313, Seattle got 4172 from theirs, Dallas got 4280 from theirs, New Orleans got 4038. 

In other words, I think you’re probably overestimating the number of snaps our DL players will get by at least 400-500 snaps.

Pretty much as a rule, these teams’ 3rd DEs are getting somewhere between 400-450 snaps. It’s remarkable actually, every single team had their 3rd DE in the middle of that range. Dallas was a bit of an outlier there, which I think is because they had Michael Bennett and Kerry Hyder kick inside and play as small DTs fairly frequently. Are we going to do that? We’re already going to be stretched in trying to get Allen/Ioannidis/Payne/Settle the snaps they deserve as it is — I don’t think it would be wise to cut their reps even further in order to force Kerrigan onto the field. 

Is 425 snaps of Kerrigan worth almost $12M to this team? And more importantly, are those 425 snaps, at that price, worth more than perhaps a 3rd round pick?

That's why i said at first glance it looks like it should be Kerrigan.  But the more I look at it, the more that it looks like it's got to be one of the interior guys.  Not to mention escalating rookie contracts for four straight DL picked in the first round.  Kerrigan rotating between both end spots is needed with Sweat and Young there.  

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5 hours ago, ripsean21 said:

We have been drafting CB often not so early but we’ve gotten some good play from mid round players

I would credit Torrian Gray with a lot of that, even while he was at Virginia Tech.  He coached Jarrett and Fuller at VT, and continued with Fuller for a year here.  Stroman was another one of his guys, and obviously he played a huge role in helping to develop Dunbar too.  

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Just for comparison’s sake, here’s the DE3 for each of the teams I looked at earlier:
 

PHI: Vinny Curry ($2.2M)

MIN: Stephen Weatherly ($720k)

SF: Solomon Thomas ($7.7M)

KC: Alex Okafor ($3.0M)

SEA: Branden Jackson ($720k)

DAL: Kerry Hyder ($888k)

NO: Trey Hendrickson ($845k)

Even including the obvious outlier in Solomon Thomas, a top 5 bust who basically can’t play DE in a 4-3 and got a lot of his snaps inside, the average salary outlay for these 7 teams for their DE3 was $2.3M. Which I think throws into pretty sharp relief how much of an overpay it would be to keep Kerrigan and deploy him in that role. Even if they did restructure him as some are suggesting (not sure why), he’s still basically going to be sitting about 3x that average salary for backup DEs. 

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2 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:

Kerrigan rotating between both end spots is needed with Sweat and Young there.  

But doesn’t that speak to one of the other issues with using Kerrigan in that role? He evidently can’t play on the defensive right side because of his deafness. 

So in order to use Kerrigan as a sub/replacement for Young, we’d have to flip Sweat over to the RE spot — at a time in his career when he should be fully focused on bulking up, and re-learning how to play with his hand in the dirt and hold up against the run. Just another contortion we’d have to perform, I guess, in order to find ways to justify keeping Kerrigan instead of looking to move on. 

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18 hours ago, Thaiphoon said:

Or just put JFM on the outside where he belongs and you don't have to worry about it for years! :D

I want this to be true. I hope it becomes true but we can’t go into the season with the status quo at corner. We need to add competition for guys like Dunny, Moreland, Moreau and Stroman.

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We definitely should trade Kerrigan. Heck, we should've traded him last October to the Ravens, but we didn't.

We aren’t going to trade him or cut him. All signs have pointed to the Redskins NOT doing that since it was starting to be discussed last season.

I’m not really sure why we are even discussing this other then bc there's not much else to talk about that we haven't already discussed at nausea in the forum. 

He’s going to be here. The question we should be discussing - and we discussed this too - is if we should restructure his deal and turn his base salary into a bonus and prorated it out over two or three years until he retires as a Redskin?

Since it's clear he's going to be here anyway, I think it makes sense to do that to his contract so it will free up $8 to 10 million more in cap space this year for us to retain players like Flowers and Scherff and sign a handful of free agents to make our team better.

Edited by turtle28

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I have interest in him but he is 30 (31 in September) If we signed him, it’d have to be on the cheap.

Obviously, I’d much rather sign Cory Littleton to play at WLB then to sign a 30-year-old like Bradham.

Edited by turtle28

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Greg Olsen to the Seahawks. Thank god we didn’t sign him. This team does not need to get older. 

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Could Austin Hooper be the guy instead?

Edited by turtle28

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