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Mahomes vs Wilson

Mahomes vs Wilson  

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  1. 1. Mahomes vs Wilson

    • Mahomes
      51
    • Wilson
      13


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On 2/14/2020 at 2:00 PM, Kip Smithers said:

Not all open receivers are created the same.

Yeah, I think this gets lost in the AGG% stat. 

I imagine Matthew Stafford had a high % when he was throwing jump balls to Megatron - but how much skill does that necessarily take? Certain receivers are just naturally going to be more of a ‘tight window’ type target than others. And that doesn’t necessarily make them harder to hit. Hitting a speedster with a smaller catch radius on a timing route requires nuance that throwing a jump ball may not, but that won’t be shown in the AGG%. 

In conjunction with @Jakuvious’ point: throwing into a tight window to make a throw could also very well just be throwing to a covered receiver - which isn’t exactly something to commend a QB for across the board. It’s a decentish stat that does provide some information but it’s being pretty overstated here, @Bearerofnews.

 

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18 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

Yeah, I think this gets lost in the AGG% stat. 

I imagine Matthew Stafford had a high % when he was throwing jump balls to Megatron - but how much skill does that necessarily take? Certain receivers are just naturally going to be more of a ‘tight window’ type target than others. And that doesn’t necessarily make them harder to hit. Hitting a speedster with a smaller catch radius on a timing route requires nuance that throwing a jump ball may not, but that won’t be shown in the AGG%. 

In conjunction with @Jakuvious’ point: throwing into a tight window to make a throw could also very well just be throwing to a covered receiver - which isn’t exactly something to commend a QB for across the board. It’s a decentish stat that does provide some information but it’s being pretty overstated here, @Bearerofnews.

 

I really dont think it is. I'm sorry but there is no scenario were a wide open target is a lower completion probability than a covered target. Regardless the WR, route or physical attribute.  I think you guys are trying way too hard to find holes in the stat and it's purpose. I think the stat aligns with the film. Is anyone going to dare tell me any other qb has more wide open targets on a routine basis than Mahomes.  Are we really trying to alter what the film shows in conjection with advanced metrics and our logical understanding of physics, to add more propping up of Mahomes.

He is doing what he should with a qb who has such a high percentage of open throws. I didnt say he is garbage for it. But it has alot to do with his production. When his receivers arent wide open he has struggled. Seen it a few times. Vs jags last year, chargers twice this year, colts this year, pats in playoffs, 49ers. Mahomes down games have hardly been due to being pressured alot. KC does good job of blocking and Mahomes handles pressure pretty good. He doesn't handle covered targets consistently good. He is young, im sure he will get better at that.

 

You guys can spin it all you want. 2 things you will not be able to do is change that Mahomes has a higher percentage of multiple options per route and that he throws less into tight windows. I dont know how his production looks in tight window throws, i dont have access to that metric. But id be surprised if it was very good. 

Edited by Bearerofnews

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18 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

When his receivers arent wide open he has struggled. Seen it a few times. Vs jags last year, chargers twice this year, colts this year, pats in playoffs, 49ers.

vs Jags: 22/38 for 313yds 0/2 TD/INT - Admittedly not a great game, but he did have a rushing TD. Oh, and they won 30-14.

vs. Chargers: 19/32 for 182yds and 1/1 TD/INT - Fisher's first game back at LT and Mahomes was just starting to get healthy, and they won.

vs Chargers 2: 16/25 174yds 1/1 TD/INT - Not a great game by Mahomes standards, but again they won.

vs Colts: 22/39 321yds 1/0 TD/INT - Not a bad game. But let's not forget that he was on a bum ankle and all the team injuries. Watkins was hurt, Hill was out and Cam Erving was LT this week among other injuries/replacements. Funny you bring up the 13-19 loss this year but not the 31-13 win last year. 27/41 278yds 0/0 TD/INT and 1 rushing TD FYI

vs Patriots: 16/31 295yds 3/0 TD/INT - Not a great first half, but I think anyone would take those stats from a playoff game. But again, you bring up the 31-37 OT loss but not the 23-16 win. 26/40 283yds 1/1 TD/INT.

vs 49ers: 26/42 286yds 2/2 TD/INT - Added a rushing TD and again, he made adjustments and won. But maybe you meant last year when they played the 49ers and went 24/38 314yds 3/0 TD/INT. Both games, they won.

 

I may be off here, but I think that every team would love to have this struggling QB on their team. Hell, I imagine some teams consider these stats a good day.

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1 hour ago, Bearerofnews said:

I really dont think it is. I'm sorry but there is no scenario were a wide open target is a lower completion probability than a covered target. Regardless the WR, route or physical attribute. 

That’s not what I said. I said chucking it to a big WR with a massive catch radius isn’t necessarily easier than throwing a timing route to a speedster. 

Quote

I think you guys are trying way too hard to find holes in the stat and it's purpose. I think the stat aligns with the film. Is anyone going to dare tell me any other qb has more wide open targets on a routine basis than Mahomes.

The stat you are throwing your support into says - yes. So yeah, I “dare say” that according to your stat, Mahomes does not.

Quote

  Are we really trying to alter what the film shows in conjection with advanced metrics and our logical understanding of physics, to add more propping up of Mahomes.

What proof in film do you have?

Quote

He is doing what he should with a qb who has such a high percentage of open throws. I didnt say he is garbage for it. But it has alot to do with his production. When his receivers arent wide open he has struggled. Seen it a few times. Vs jags last year, chargers twice this year, colts this year, pats in playoffs, 49ers. Mahomes down games have hardly been due to being pressured alot. KC does good job of blocking and Mahomes handles pressure pretty good. He doesn't handle covered targets consistently good. He is young, im sure he will get better at that.

You guys can spin it all you want. 2 things you will not be able to do is change that Mahomes has a higher percentage of multiple options per route and that he throws less into tight windows. I dont know how his production looks in tight window throws, i dont have access to that metric. But id be surprised if it was very good. 

Yes, providing context is “spinning” things and looking at stats without any is always the smart thing to do.

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How is this even a question? I would say that Russel Wilson is probably the 2nd best quarterback in the league right now, but Mahomes is just head and shoulders above him. 

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On 2020-02-21 at 8:34 PM, Yin-Yang said:

When his receivers arent wide open he has struggled.

Are you saying Mahomes struggles to hit open receivers? @Bearerofnews

(sorry, @Yin-Yang)

Edited by SmittyBacall

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11 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Are you saying Mahomes struggles to hit open receivers?

Wrong quote?

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