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News and Notes: Offseason Edition


Matts4313

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On 5/25/2020 at 12:55 PM, Matts4313 said:

It is part lip service, but its also true. Some times its mandatory to throw high/low/whatever. WRs have to make the play. 

True, but that doesn't mean throw it a mile over the head of a wide open WR or throw it so far behind him that it's impossible to catch.

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1 hour ago, D82 said:

 

Normally I wouldn't even Dare ask But.. at what point do we at least consider Martin = Larry Allen as a guard?? 

*side note I consider Larry Allen the GOAT O-lineman for overall ability/talent and versatility.. But straight up OG vs OG that is my question..

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1 hour ago, resilient part 2 said:

Normally I wouldn't even Dare ask But.. at what point do we at least consider Martin = Larry Allen as a guard?? 

*side note I consider Larry Allen the GOAT O-lineman for overall ability/talent and versatility.. But straight up OG vs OG that is my question..

This needs a thread

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1 hour ago, resilient part 2 said:

Normally I wouldn't even Dare ask But.. at what point do we at least consider Martin = Larry Allen as a guard?? 

*side note I consider Larry Allen the GOAT O-lineman for overall ability/talent and versatility.. But straight up OG vs OG that is my question..

No, he’s not there.  LA had a level of dominance that is unmatched.  That’s not being critical of Martin either.  Martin is more of an Alan Faneca.    

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3 hours ago, resilient part 2 said:

Normally I wouldn't even Dare ask But.. at what point do we at least consider Martin = Larry Allen as a guard?? 

*side note I consider Larry Allen the GOAT O-lineman for overall ability/talent and versatility.. But straight up OG vs OG that is my question..

He’s got a long way to go before we start talking about him being as dominant as Larry Allen, and that’s no disrespect to Martin. Allen’s dominance as a player can’t be understated. He’s one of the best offensive linemen in NFL history, and one of only a handful of players to be elected to multiple All Decade Teams as well as the NFL’s 100th Anniversary Team. Martin is incredible and still ascending as a player, but he’s not at Larry Allen’s level.

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2 hours ago, D82 said:

Defense was so, so bad last year 

Defense only went bad once the injuries occurred to the dline and LBs. Having 2 heads working the defense also didnt help matters. Last years play was geared towards more bad coaching than player mistakes

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4 hours ago, D82 said:

Defense was so, so bad last year 

Let's not pretend that the offense played well in many situations, either. Garbage 4th Quarter stats are meaningless when the QB play, coaching, and play calling are trash for the first three.

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11 minutes ago, plan9misfit said:

Let's not pretend that the offense played well in many situations, either. Garbage 4th Quarter stats are meaningless when the QB play, coaching, and play calling are trash for the first three.

I wonder if there's a stat that shows where running the ball, controlling clock, sustaining drives, giving your defense a chance to rest or adjust is a thing. Not to mention long sustained drives limiting the number of possessions for the other team actually helps defenses allow less points against

Or perhaps going 3 and out, then getting scored on, then going 3 and out and then getting scored on again is maybe a bad thing for the defense

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Is scoring first and winning the first quarter important in football?

 

...Yes. Yes it is.

Quarter Score differential (spread)

Next we look at the spread by quarter. We can see a major difference in spread for teams… this could be a sign of momentum as well. This indicated, teams that win early, typically stay ahead. Sounds like when a winning teams sets a tone they usually keep the lead for the win.

 

https://towardsdatascience.com/nfl-which-quarters-correlate-most-with-winning-87f23024c44a

 

1*C0R8DmuAI4pSD8lzW9eY0w.png Figure 16 — Feature Performance and Importance based on discrete quarter perdictions

Interestingly we can see a decrease in value as quarters progress in the importance of first down and conversely an increase in qt_score_diff which is the point spread in the quarter scores.

Summary

This has been an intriguing analysis and this post was not intended to conclude that winning in the first quarter is not important, but as we have seen there is a strong correlation between winning the first quarter and winning games over the course of the season.

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Dallas was 7-6-3 after the 1st qt last year. Not terrible. Not great. Recipe for 8-8.

 

I also noticed we lost a few games that we won the 1st qt in. The Bears, Saints, and Bills.


In the Bears game we got out to a 7-0 lead in the 1st, but then we didn’t score another point till the 4th. Truthbisky passed for 3TDs on our defense on won.

The Bills game... same thing. Got out to a 7-0 lead in the 1st quarter then crickets until the 4th quarter. 15 total points scored isn’t going to get many wins.

We were up 3-0 on the Saints at the end of the first, but we lost. We only scored 10 points that game. Defense held Bridgewater to 12. 

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