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rbens06

rbens06 Feb 7 2020 Mock Draft

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It has been awhile since I have consistently posted, I think dating back to the old forum page.....with that said I am hoping to get back into discussing and mock drafting more, so what better way than to roll out with a Mock Draft!

Cap

When things are all said and done the Packers will have about $39 million in space, (current contracts, adjusted salaries increases at end of January, cutting Graham, trading Taylor [hopeful on this], etc.)

URFA- Green Bay

Bryan Bulaga- Tough call here, but I think Bulaga will try, and ultimately get, a much bigger deal than we will offer. Bulaga is still a young tackle with a good all around game. His health has been a concern, but some team will take that chance. 

Tramon Williams- Torn on this one as I like Williams for his lockerroom and veteran leadership, but I think we need to give our younger guys more opportunity. Right now, I think we move on, but could bring him back later.

Mason Crosby- no reason to change, 3 year deal worth up to $15 million (cap goes down $3.5 million)

Jared Veldheer- Veldheer proved his value late in the year spot starting for Bulaga. With Bulaga moving on, I think Veldheer can be a stopgap player for us. 2 year deal worth $6 million (cap goes down $2.5 million; no guarantee year 2)

Geronimo Allison- gone

Marcedes Lewis- Back on another one year deal to help bridge the gap; 1 year $2 million

Jason Spriggs- gone

Ryan Grant- gone

Kyler Fackrell- Fackrell is a good situational player for us, but I think he will a) get better money elsewhere and b) get a better opportunity at more playing time elsewhere.

B.J. Goodson- gone

Ibraheim Campbell- came back and got some snaps, but I think he is gone as we go younger. 

Tyler Ervin- Back on a one year deal worth 720k (cap goes down 720k)

Blake Martinez- I think Martinez can be a solid ILB for us, not a superstar, but a good player. However, his market is going to be way to high for us. 

Malcolm Johnson- gone

Robert Tonyan Jr./Jake Kumerow/Chandon Sullivan/Tyler Lancaster/Will Redmond/Allen Lazard- All back on ERFA deals (420k per; 2.52 million cap hit)

John Leglue- gone

Free Agency

We have about $27.76 million left. I am not sure if another big time splash is coming, but I think there are some good mid-tier with potential guys we can hit on. A guy like AJ Green, Cooper, Anderson, Conklin, Jones if he gets to FA, Littleton, etc would be nice, but I think will be too much for us. 

Sammy Watkins WR Kansas City Chiefs 6'1 205lbs- Watkins in all likelihood will not be back with KC. They will be looking to extend Mahomes, in addition to trying to retain Jones, so they will need all the cap they can get and Watkins getting cut saves 14 million. With that said, I know Watkins stated he could take the year off, but at 26 I don't think he will do that. Watkins career has been a rollercoaster being a high pick and developing in Buffalo, to some down years with the Rams and Chiefs. He has durability issues, but he is a very solid number two receiver and can complement our current WR core nicely. He is a speedster with the ability to take the top off the defense and a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Someone that can operate outside or in the slot and give us a solid lineup with Adams-Watkins-Lazard to enter the offseason with. Since he was cut and is young I think he would be willing to take a 1-2 year deal and hit free agency again still in prime years. We sign him for 1 year deal worth up to $10 million with incentives (both playing time and stats). Cap goes down by $8 million. 

Sean Lee ILB Dallas Cowboys 6'2 245lbs- Lee by no means is the answer at the position, but someone that can provide great leadership, experience, and be a solid backup for us. I am unsure if the Pack will give the keys to Oren Burks as the starter as he has been hobbled by injuries and hasnt really shown that he is the answer. Lee was regulated to backup and spot starter for Leighton Vander Esch. I am not sure Lee will want to keep playing, but an option and decent backup for us to have. He signs a cheap 1 year $1.5 million deal, little to no guarantee money. 

Christian Covington DL Dallas Cowboys 6'3 300lbs- Covington is still young, but has been a solid run defender. He needs to still develop a pass rush, but he is stout in the trenches. With money spent on the Smiths we will rely on them for more of the actual rush and have Covington focus on the run stuffing and eating up space. One year deal worth up to $3 million, cap hit of $2 million, little guaranteed money.

Jarran Reed DL Seattle Seahawks 6'3 306lbs- Reed is a tough, strong player that has shown the ability to create a very good inside rush. He had a suspension this year, but in 2018 he put together a good season and played well inside. 2 year deal worth up to $8 million cap hit of $3.5 million. 

Cap is left at $12.76 million

Draft

1. Patrick Queen ILB LSU 6'1 227lbs- Queen is a very athletic, fast linebacker that does a good job in space and has excellent range. He reads/reacts well and using his quickness and athleticism to make plays and shows a good feel for the game. Two big things that I don't like from this pick, one he is smaller and struggles to fight off blocks. We have been gouged by running games in the past and if he doesnt improve his disengage skills this trend can continue, however, he is more athletic and sees the game fast, so he is able to keep himself clean better than Martinez did. Second, he does not have a ton of starting experience under his belt, which isnt necessarily a product of a lack of talent, but just we will be getting a raw ILB that we are hoping would start. I am not one that thinks we need an ILB in the first, but the athleticism is very high and think the potential too good to pass on here as other positions are either of bad value here or are deep and we can get value later. 

2. Jalen Reagor WR TCU 5'11 195lbs- Reagor falls some here due to a deep receiver class. We say guys with more athleticism, i.e. Paris Campbell last year, fall in the draft and that was a weak class at receiver. I think Reagor offers us the speed and quickness we do not really have on the roster. He is not a big  receiver, but adequate enough size to play inside or out and he does a fairly good job at winning at the line of scrimmage. He has good deep speed that needs to be respected and has a good feel for coverages to find holes and space. Thing that he can offer that we do not really have is that quick catch and run ability. He is very good with the ball in his hands and has the ability to gain big yards every time he touches it. The quick jets, screens, dump passes, etc will be a good re-addition the the playbook.

3. Trey Adams OT Washington 6'8 315lbs- Adams was once considered to be a high first round pick, then injuries derailed that. His injury history is still concerning, but in the third round and not having to start him for a year so he can continue to get healthy will be a plus. He is a big tackle that has good strength and has shown good ability in the run game at not only at controlling the line of scrimmage, but getting to the second level too. He shows some athleticism and ability to block well on the move, but he is a little heavy footed and will need to work on his pass set. As a right tackle it will be workable and much like Bulaga that struggled with some speed guys in the later years. Adams has the talent and can still improve in this area and I think can be a solid swing guy for the immediate and be a future RT for us. 

4.Jacob Breeland TE Oregon 6'5 250lbs- Breeland is a good, not great athlete that plays well out of the slot and running the seam. He isn't a tighend that is a burner, but he has solid speed. Not called on to block a ton, so he will need to improve his inline blocking to be a more complete tightend. I like what we have in Sternberger, but having another guy to develop will help. Tonyan has been up and down on the field too. 

5. (Lane Taylor trade).  Shyheim Carter DB Alabama 6'0 195lbs- Carter played the hybrid safety/corner/linebacker role at Alabama. He isn't fluid enough to be a true corner and not big enough to be a linebacker, although he plays with a linebacker demeanor. He would be someone to compete with Greene for that hybrid role and I believe offers better coverage ability and range.  

5. Keith Ismael IOL San Diego 6'3 310lbs- A solid interior swing guy that can offer us position flexibility at either guard or center. Much like Patrick, just a younger option to develop. 

6. Carter Coughlin EDGE Minnesota 6'4 234lbs- Someone that will give max effort every play and has some solid skills to develop. Not someone that will give starter snaps, but a good rotational guy that can also play on special teams. 

6. Quentez Cephus WR Wisconsin 6'2 205lbs- Some off the field red flags to vet, but another speed receiver that can offer us something of a deep threat. Questions will arise to his route tree knowledge and route running ability as he was in a run heavy offense, but good athleticism to work with and develop. 

7.Chris Evans RB Michigan 5'11 215lbs- someone that missed the last year, but showed a solid all around came prior to that. 

7. Kelly Bryant QB Missouri 6'4 220lbs- a project quarterback with good athleticism and a strong arm. He showed potential at Clemson, but then Lawrence took over. Purely a guy we see if the potential can still be developed with. 

 

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I think you are optimistic on what Watkins will take.  He concerns me, for a number of reasons.  He will want a longer term deal with the big up front money.  I find it difficult to believe he would settle for the contract you offer.  Regardless, like I said, he concerns me.  Ability to stay healthy, desire to play and perform.  Potential head case when it doesn't happen for him.

Lee also concerns me for very different reasons. 

Losing Bulaga concerns me.  Veldheer is a nice signing and I hope that does happen.  Not enough done to replace the white whale.  OT becomes my numero uno draft need with him gone.

To get Reagor with our 2nd would be a windfall.  Even in this deep WR class, I don't like the odds.  No doubt if you allow Martinez to walk we need to replace him, you have with Lee and Queen.  But the cost is no OT until the late 3rd and a vet who likely will not hold up as a starter for the majority of the season.  I'm also not sold on Queen this high.

I like the D-Linemen you added in FA, but again not sure they will tip for those contracts.  We definitely need to improve here, and you've drafted nobody.

Very concerning for me....

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4 minutes ago, rbens06 said:

It has been awhile since I have consistently posted

welcome back and your 1 football was looking lonely, so now you have 2

I think Sean Lee is all done at this point and putting his battered body into the frozen tundra seems like a less- than- ideal scenario
Also - You might want to take a quick glance at the police report on Jarran Reed before bringing him into GB

https://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/nfl/seattle-seahawks/article233018892.html

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42 minutes ago, 15412 said:

I think you are optimistic on what Watkins will take.  He concerns me, for a number of reasons.  He will want a longer term deal with the big up front money.  I find it difficult to believe he would settle for the contract you offer.  Regardless, like I said, he concerns me.  Ability to stay healthy, desire to play and perform.  Potential head case when it doesn't happen for him.

Lee also concerns me for very different reasons. 

Losing Bulaga concerns me.  Veldheer is a nice signing and I hope that does happen.  Not enough done to replace the white whale.  OT becomes my numero uno draft need with him gone.

To get Reagor with our 2nd would be a windfall.  Even in this deep WR class, I don't like the odds.  No doubt if you allow Martinez to walk we need to replace him, you have with Lee and Queen.  But the cost is no OT until the late 3rd and a vet who likely will not hold up as a starter for the majority of the season.  I'm also not sold on Queen this high.

I like the D-Linemen you added in FA, but again not sure they will tip for those contracts.  We definitely need to improve here, and you've drafted nobody.

Very concerning for me....

Very fair points....I agree the Watkins one to me is a wildcard. Contract can earn him $10 million for one year with a quarterback and system that should allow him to produce and then cash in really big next offseason when he is still only 27. He also is likely to be the second tier of WR in free agency, guys like Cooper, Green, and Anderson, to me, will be sought after more than Watkins. I dont think $10 million is that bad of a number, yes incentives in there so that is why it is $7 cap, but I do see it could be a tad light for a young guy. I haven't seen anything that makes me believe he is a headcase, he was KC's top receiver for most of the last two post seasons, so when playing I am comfortable, but as you said durability will be the concern.

Lee is not someone I am counting on for significant snaps, if he shows rejuvenation and it happens great, if not then it is more just the backup and veteran to have if we need to turn to someone. 

Reagor I have personally as somoene I with late first round talent, but there are, to me, 5 guys with better talent in front of him and then at least 3 with similar grade, but different style, so based on how they fell last year and other years prior that is where I am at. 

No OT is a concern for me too, but it didn't fall where we could get one. I didnt see the talent there at the end of the first, second maybe a Josh Jones if he is there, but he is still a project too. To note, Wills, Wirfs, Thomas, Becton, Jackson are all gone when we pick in round 1. I would like a better option than Veldheer for the future, but I think he can hold up for at least a year for us. A guy like DJ Humphries might be had in FA, but think he will get more than we want to offer for him. 

I agree optimistic on those two for FA DL, but neither are superstars, but agree the way contracts have risen we are probably looking at the $5 million range for them, seeing thats what Lowry got from us. I agree I have drafted no body, but the two added are both 26 year old defensive lineman that are still young and can provide plenty of potential to the position. Add in we still have Lowry, Clark, Keke, Adams as young guys to continue to develop and although I would prefer a DL in the draft I am not freaking out we didnt get one. 

 

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52 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

welcome back and your 1 football was looking lonely, so now you have 2

I think Sean Lee is all done at this point and putting his battered body into the frozen tundra seems like a less- than- ideal scenario
Also - You might want to take a quick glance at the police report on Jarran Reed before bringing him into GB

https://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/nfl/seattle-seahawks/article233018892.html

Agree I think Lee most likely retires than take a backup cheap contract, but he might want the opportunity to play for a title and we offer that. 

That is a terrible police report, no crime was ever charged though. Not necessarily the same situation, but look at Zeke, he had it reported, but was never charged. Not saying I agree with it and am not downgrading it, but think we do our due diligence beforehand. Schneider didn't cut him when the report surfaced and he is from our tree, if that holds any value. 

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Love the draft actually. Drop the Reed and Lee signings and this makes a lot more sense. I too am concerned about Watkins but we should at least inquire. Covington could be a decent stop-gap starter next to Clark but we can't consider him a long-term solution. I think Reagor falls if he doesn't run in the 4.3's, but as much as I like Trey Adams, I'd risk it to see if Reagor were to fall that far and go IDL in the 2nd round; Raekwon Davis should be there.

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On 2/7/2020 at 11:46 AM, rbens06 said:

but think we do our due diligence beforehand. Schneider didn't cut him when the report surfaced and he is from our tree, if that holds any value. 

Jarran Reed

We can get the straight dope from Schneider, so that's a plus, but GB typically has a different tolerance level for the "bad boys" than Seattle.
That's a reflection of both the organization and the community they live in. It's still worth checking into the guy, he fills a need

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I agree with you Packer FA re-signs...although I am optimistic that Bulaga Returns.

Other FA's 

I like Perriman, Pierce, and Littleton as signings.

I like the draft.

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On 2/7/2020 at 12:46 PM, 15412 said:

I think you are optimistic on what Watkins will take.  He concerns me, for a number of reasons.  He will want a longer term deal with the big up front money.  I find it difficult to believe he would settle for the contract you offer.  Regardless, like I said, he concerns me.  Ability to stay healthy, desire to play and perform.  Potential head case when it doesn't happen for him.

Lee also concerns me for very different reasons. 

Losing Bulaga concerns me.  Veldheer is a nice signing and I hope that does happen.  Not enough done to replace the white whale.  OT becomes my numero uno draft need with him gone.

To get Reagor with our 2nd would be a windfall.  Even in this deep WR class, I don't like the odds.  No doubt if you allow Martinez to walk we need to replace him, you have with Lee and Queen.  But the cost is no OT until the late 3rd and a vet who likely will not hold up as a starter for the majority of the season.  I'm also not sold on Queen this high.

I like the D-Linemen you added in FA, but again not sure they will tip for those contracts.  We definitely need to improve here, and you've drafted nobody.

Very concerning for me....

I think Watkins might only get a 1 year prove it deal like that. The guy hasn’t been healthy and isn’t a #1.

I agree on Lee, and the OT take

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15 hours ago, Joe said:

Love the draft actually. Drop the Reed and Lee signings and this makes a lot more sense. I too am concerned about Watkins but we should at least inquire. Covington could be a decent stop-gap starter next to Clark but we can't consider him a long-term solution. I think Reagor falls if he doesn't run in the 4.3's, but as much as I like Trey Adams, I'd risk it to see if Reagor were to fall that far and go IDL in the 2nd round; Raekwon Davis should be there.

Thanks! I did consider IDL in the second as I think we could still get a quality receiver in the third, but I went Reagor as I think he is too much value and can compliment Adams/Lazard combo extremely well. I like Davis and that swap out I’d be on with, I did have Davis off the board though.

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11 hours ago, pacman5252 said:

I do think either Hamler or Reagor drops a bit

 

11 hours ago, Pilprin said:

Hamler, Hill, or Reagor in round 2 would be a hit for me.

It will be interesting to see the WR class and how they fall this year compared to last year. I’m indifferent on Hamler, some things I really like about his game but his size scares me that he is smaller than the 5’9 he is listed at.

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11 hours ago, pacman5252 said:

I think Watkins might only get a 1 year prove it deal like that. The guy hasn’t been healthy and isn’t a #1.

I agree on Lee, and the OT take

That would be my hope with him and coming to GB with a good quarterback and an established number one can do a lot for him to parlay his one year deal to a big contract. With that said he is a high draft pick, has shown that skill set and is still very young so some team very well could over pay.

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13 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

Jarran Reed

We can get the straight dope from Schneider, so that's a plus, but GB typically has a different tolerance level for the "bad boys" than Seattle.
That's a reflection of both the organization and the community they live in. It's still worth checking into the guy, he fills a need

Fair point this type of incident is different than the Jolly, Robinson type second chances we have given. 

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