Irish Wolfhounds 2020 Expansion sim

[EirePacker]

Wolfhounds release

WR Quartney Davis with a ps squad designation if cleared through waivers.

[EirePacker]

Been flat out at between work & college. Wolfhounds  place Joe Burrow & Nick Boyle on IR.

Claim DeAndre Baker off the Chiefs Ps squad.

Reactivate Joe Looney off IR.

[EirePacker]

With the season coming to a close it's time to finalize the season record and assign a draft slot for the 2021 draft.

QB ) Actual season Stats: Joe Burrow, Josh Rosen (no stats recorded)

2688 yards, 13/5  TD-Interceptions, 65.3%

• I think it's fair to say the Wolfhounds lose out after Burrow's injury week 11. Early season struggles where to be expected but Joe looked comfortable from game 1.  Joe's yardage probably remains the same with the majority of targets heading Hopkins way.

RB) Actual season stats: Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis Eno Benjiman (no stats recorded)

367 yards 5TD's rushing on average 3.7 YPC, 319 yards 4TD's receiving

• A pretty mediocre year at RB, especially with Eno not seeing the field for the Cards,  With neither Burkhead or Lewis home run threats id expect a ypc around 3.0 and a slight uptick in receiving yards for both backs.

WR) Actual season stats: Deandre Hopkins, Demarcus Robinson, Donovan Peoples Jones

157 receptions, 2039 yards, 11 TD's

• With Funchess opting out it was next man up, Hopkins done the heavy lifting here with the rest of the wr's playing limited snaps. In this scenario Hopkins production would go down due to receiving extra attention from the D, the other receivers receive a small uptake in production due to opportunity but at a lower efficiency.

TE) Actual season stats: Nick Boyle Blake Bell, Brycen Hopkins (no stats recorded)

24 receptions, 216 yards, 2 TD's

• Another poor unit,: Brycen Hopkins didn't see the field for the rams while Boyle spent time on IR.

OL) Josh Jones, Cameron Fleming, Joe Looney, Hakeem Adenjii, Jack Conklin.

• With Marcus Cannon opting out and Joe Looney, Josh Jones & Jack Conklin all missing time on IR Burrow would have been running for his life early on. Conklins had a decent season though.

DT) Actual Season Stats: Danny Shelton, Neville Gallimore

44 tackles, 1 sack

• With Andrew Billings opting out Gallimore was pushed into a starting role early, No eye popping stats here but their job is to stuff the middle and keep the LB's clean.

EDGE) Actual season Stats: Jeremiah Attaochu, Jordon Jenkins, Terrell Lewis Yannick Ngakoue

11 sacks, 5 forced fumbles

• Lewis spent alot of the year on IR while Attaochu & Jenkins underwhelmed. Ngakoue has played well since brought in but needs a running mate to avoid teams double teaming him

LB)  Bernardrick Mckinney, Nick Kwiatkowski, KPL, Kyrs Barnes

• Mckinney went to IR early in the year but Kwiatkowski has had a good year and Barnes has been a pleasant surprise, im very happy with the LB core for next season.

CB ) Kendall Fuller, Jason McCourty, Mackenzie Alexander

5 interceptions, 18 pass deflections

Probably my strongest unit on the team, Fullers been one of the top CB's this season in the NFL, its a well balanced unit with a lot of youth lower on the depth chart.

S) Tre Boston, Adrian Philips,

With Chung opting out Philips moved up the depth chart and the 2 have been solid. JR Reed & Marcus Epps back up the duo .

ST)

• R Blankenship, 29-32 FG's (90.6%), 38/40 XP's (95%). Blakenships been a great  steady presence as a rookie

 

 

I started getting tired half way though looking up them stats 😄. It was a season of 2 halves, Early on the team struggled but made a surge late. However this was after Burrow went down 😔. I think this was 3/4 win team so at the minute ill assign myself the 3rd pick in each round of the 2021 NFL draft for the minute before revisiting at the end of the season.

If anyone has time to give opinions whether harsh or nice feel free to jump in, it would be a great help to here some elses take?

Edited January 2, 2021 by EirePacker

[EirePacker]

I think this team finishes the season with a  3 - 13 or 4 - 12 W/L record @Trojan @jrry32@Techbert Any thoughts fella's?  I'm leaning towards 3 - 13 but I'll go with the majority?

[Techbert]

5 hours ago, EirePacker said:

I think this team finishes the season with a  3 - 13 or 4 - 12 W/L record @Trojan @jrry32@Techbert Any thoughts fella's?  I'm leaning towards 3 - 13 but I'll go with the majority?

Before I start, let me warn you that I am the tough judge. I think winning in the NFL is really tough, and no week is a sure thing. For example, my Zaps have a thousand yard rookie rusher and a bright young receiver, and three rookies who started on the OL, and I am wavering between 1 and 0 wins for my team. So be aware that if I am brutal it is because I think what we do is brutal. We are competing, not with each other, but with trained full-time professional general managers. And a first year expansion team that does not overpay for win now talent has real troubles.

I think you should compare your team with the Jags, Jets, and Bengals, and see how your team slots in there. I'll leave that to you.

With the Bengals, I think their offensive line, as bad as it is, is better than yours. So does Burrow make it to game 11? Your assumptions are he does, but rookie quarterback running for his life is a bad combo, and has kept quarterbacks like Greg Cook, Randy Johnson, Tim Couch, and David Carr from ever reaching their potential. Your running backs are not built to run behind a weak offensive line, and pro defensive coordinators will take away your running game completely. So Burrow, and a veteran quarterback like Dalton you pick up again, will be throwing it to Hopkins and hoping. That will be even tougher once the defense drops a few scores early and the defenses pin their ears back.

I would project your offense would get maybe 2700 yards passing and 1000 yards rushing, plus the last game, so 3000 yards passing and 1050 yards rushing.  That would put you in last place offensively, 400 yards behind the Jets with 1 game to play. This is also giving you a positive curve late in the season, which as the Jets and Jags are showing, is a 50/50 proposition.

On defense, the opt outs hurt and the first half of the year will be a disaster. Your defensive line is controllable, and your linebackers would have needed time to gel. Even your secondary, which is your best unit, would need time to gel, cuz expansion team. It is the DL that would get you pushed around by the other teams, and they would pick you apart in the air once their ground games were established and they provide a reliably clean pocket most of the afternoon.

In summary, I think your team has some nice pieces and some young players with future potential. I would not be discouraged in the least. While I would say 1 win, you can say 3 wins if you want and have your pick of the non-quarterbacks in the draft. To role-play it, one team came in flat against you for the first win. Joe Burrow was out of his mind in the zone for the second win. Veteran quarterback recalls his past glory with a smart and efficient game for the third win, with the defense having peaks and valleys all season. I don't see a fourth win, though.

 

Edited January 2, 2021 by Techbert

[jrry32]

I'll say 2 wins.

[Trojan]

I think you might as well pick 3rd overall and claim 3 wins as two QBs likely start the draft off and you have Burrow it will let you have top option, but a slight chance of a team jumping in front of you. I think you would have played out like a reverse of the Jets season with some success early with Burrow to Hopkins pulling a win or two, but without Burrow it's hard to imagine wins coming late in the year.

[EirePacker]

So after consideration I'm giving myself a 2 - 14 W/L record for the 2020 season. That puts me at either the 2nd or 3rd pick in the 2021 draft, To brake the tie fairly I'm going to use the Irish Daily millions lotto draw at 9pm tonight. If the bonus ball is an even number I get the  2nd pick if its an odd number I receive the the 3rd pick.

[EirePacker]

And the Bonus ball from tonight's Lotto to decide the tiebreaker between the Wolfhound's and Jets is...34.

 

With that concluded the Wolfhounds will hold the 2nd pick of the 2021 draft in the 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th & 7th rounds.

[Techbert]

I like the random idea, but for simplicity I say that if only one team has the same record that I do, for simulation I am the only team with that record. The rationale is when I am bad I lose to that tying team and when I am good I beat it.

For ties of more than one team, I assume that my opponents have a .500 record for all the games that do not involve me and my W-L for the rest. That gives me a strength of schedule which you can plug in.

If SOS ties, you can then do a randomizer, but that is rare. In balance, I think #2 pick is reasonable and just.

[Techbert]

On 1/2/2021 at 7:01 PM, Trojan said:

I think you might as well pick 3rd overall and claim 3 wins as two QBs likely start the draft off and you have Burrow it will let you have top option, but a slight chance of a team jumping in front of you. I think you would have played out like a reverse of the Jets season with some success early with Burrow to Hopkins pulling a win or two, but without Burrow it's hard to imagine wins coming late in the year.

#2 pick has value if there is a trade near the top of the order that Eire wants to participate in. If I had Burrow that is what I would want to have happen.