If Julio retired today: How many WR’s higher all-time?

[Mox]

40 minutes ago, scar988 said:

Julio Jones ranks through 9 seasons as compared to other players in their first 9 seasons at WR:

Receptions - 4th

Yardage - 1st by like 300 yards.

TD's - 46th. Which considering the 100 year history of the NFL, the fact that only 45 players scored more TDs than him in their first 9 years at WR says something. 

Yards per target - 1st.

Oh yeah, and Julio missed 20 games due to injury and was banged up and still playing at around 60% for another 8-9 more of those and still is in this area. If he didn't miss those games, I wonder just how many more TDs he would have to shut up the guys on forums like this that can't see that TDs are a function of the team, scheme and offensive coordinator and not the individual player.

I don't know how you can say this with a straight face. He plays in the easiest era to accumulate receiving stats ever. He has pretty much no competition from the first 60-70 years of history. 

[Matts4313]

16 minutes ago, scar988 said:

BTW, I'd have Julio in the top 10, but that's about it if he were to retire today. He's had a great career, but something feels like it's missing from it.

TDs perhaps?

[scar988]

3 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

TDs perhaps?

More like 2-3 seasons of play. TDs to me aren't as important when he's ranking 25th all time in yards for this. 3 seasons from now, if he has another 3000-3300 yards, he's up in the top 5-6 players all time in receiving yards and near Tony Gonzalez range in terms of yardage, that's when I'll feel like his career is complete. After that, it's just gravy.

[iknowcool]

13 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

I don't know how you can say this with a straight face. He plays in the easiest era to accumulate receiving stats ever. He has pretty much no competition from the first 60-70 years of history. 

Yea, kind of misleading.  If you go back to 1978 when the Mel Blount rule was created, which is only 41 years ago, he's still only 36th in receiving touchdowns in one's first 9 years.  If you strictly look at the 2000s, then he's 21st, 10 touchdowns less than #10 (Colston).

TDs can be situational, but even when accounting for that his numbers in that regard are underwhelming (for a great WR).

Edited February 14, 2020 by iknowcool

[scar988]

1 minute ago, iknowcool said:

Yea, kind of misleading.  If you go back to 1978 when the Mel Blount rule was created, which is only 41 years ago, he's still only 36th in receiving touchdowns in one's first 9 years.  If you strictly look at the 2000s, then he's 21st, 10 touchdowns less than #10 (Colston).

Yup. Only 51 players have had as many TDs their first 9 years in the NFL as a WR as Julio Jones. Of those, 18 of them played pre-1980. Another 13 from 1980-2000. And the other 20 played from 2000 til now. Have players gotten better in the last 20 years at catching TDs? sure.

But ignoring how WRs actually score TDs and how the function of the offense is more at play than the actual receiver's talent shows more to me here than anything else. WRs don't throw to themselves. They don't design the plays to get themselves open when facing double teams. Atlanta used Julio as a red zone decoy a lot to draw doubles one way and throw the other. Why is he penalized when the team scored a TD? 

[iknowcool]

6 minutes ago, scar988 said:

Yup. Only 51 players have had as many TDs their first 9 years in the NFL as a WR as Julio Jones. Of those, 18 of them played pre-1980. Another 13 from 1980-2000. And the other 20 played from 2000 til now. Have players gotten better in the last 20 years at catching TDs? sure.

But ignoring how WRs actually score TDs and how the function of the offense is more at play than the actual receiver's talent shows more to me here than anything else. WRs don't throw to themselves. They don't design the plays to get themselves open when facing double teams. Atlanta used Julio as a red zone decoy a lot to draw doubles one way and throw the other. Why is he penalized when the team scored a TD? 

You don't think the Vikings did that with Moss?  Or the Lions with Johnson?  Or the Steelers with AB?  Every elite WR gets used as a decoy at some point.  Damn near every elite WR sees extra coverage in the red-zone.  It isn't like Jones has been playing for incompetent offenses - he's had plenty of other very good players and solid role players to help take pressure off of him.

I'm not suggesting Jones is a bad red-zone receiver or that it's all on him.  But when you are comparing him to other all-time wide receivers, it definitely deserves to be brought up.  Calvin played for generally worse offenses and was doubled just as much, if not more so (probably more so), than Jones and yet at the same point in their careers, had 26 more touchdowns.  Even the 10 extra games Johnson played doesn't account for that.

[scar988]

4 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

You don't think the Vikings did that with Moss?  Or the Lions with Johnson?  Or the Steelers with AB?  Every elite WR gets used as a decoy at some point.  Damn near every elite WR sees extra coverage in the red-zone.  It isn't like Jones has been playing for incompetent offenses - he's had plenty of other very good players and solid role players to help take pressure off of him.

I'm not suggesting Jones is a bad red-zone receiver or that it's all on him.  But when you are comparing him to other all-time wide receivers, it definitely deserves to be brought up.  Calvin played for generally worse offenses and was doubled just as much, if not more so (probably more so), than Jones and yet at the same point in their careers, had 26 more touchdowns.  Even the 10 extra games Johnson played doesn't account for that.

Yeah, they forced it to Moss and Johnson in the red zone. Ryan doesn't force it to any one receiver in the red zone. Look at the TD % of those players vs. the other receivers on the team in the red zones. It'd be shocking to you how much other teams force it to certain guys. 

[scar988]

I also put blame on the OC's here in Atlanta. Sarkisian sucked as a guy in red zone offense in general. Shanahan was good, but he spread the ball out to literally everyone. The idea was the least likely guy to catch the pass was the one getting it.

[iknowcool]

Just now, scar988 said:

Yeah, they forced it to Moss and Johnson in the red zone. 

Yeah, except 71 of Moss' 101 touchdowns in his first 9 years were outside of the redzone.  Which means if you eliminate all of his touchdowns that were from being "forced the ball in the red zone", he still scored more touchdowns than Julio.

Source

 

[ET80]

I have him nearly identical to Andre Johnson - physical mismatches with elite athleticism, couldn't score TDs, but could take over games at any time, from any part of the field. Both played in variants of Mike Shanahan offenses (both had some of their biggest years with Kyle Shanahan, in fact) due to their ability to run strong routes and fearlessness running the deep in routes with two S deep - knowing that any DB foolish enough to try to light them up would take the brunt of punishment. These two guys were race horses, big body and physical - you weren't jamming them at the line, at all. 

He's incredibly elite, in the top 10 discussion - but more TDs would get him into the top 5 discussion. 

[scar988]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

I have him nearly identical to Andre Johnson - physical mismatches with elite athleticism, couldn't score TDs, but could take over games at any time, from any part of the field. Both played in variants of Mike Shanahan offenses (both had some of their biggest years with Kyle Shanahan, in fact) due to their ability to run strong routes and fearlessness running the deep in routes with two S deep - knowing that any DB foolish enough to try to light them up would take the brunt of punishment. These two guys were race horses, big body and physical - you weren't jamming them at the line, at all. 

He's incredibly elite, in the top 10 discussion - but more TDs would get him into the top 5 discussion. 

I think we'll see an uptick in TDs for him the farther his career goes. Ryan's been targeting him more in the red zone lately even if the TDs don't show it. Just a matter oftime before 3-4 more of those passes hit every year.

[showtime]

6 hours ago, scar988 said:

I think you should go back and watch every Falcons red zone drive for the last 10 years and tell me what you see in regards to the coverage on Julio. After 2012, Julio started seeing straight doubles or bracket zones every single play. Outside of plays literally schemed for him to get open, he was getting double teamed and his QB was smart enough to know that if Julio is doubled, someone else is either singled or open. So Ryan being smart threw to the open man. It's not rocket surgery, man.

I seriously don't understand what argument you're trying to make.  "Julio started seeing straight doubles or bracket zones every single player".... so?  Are you saying that Calvin Johnson and Randy Moss didn't see those same types of coverages?  What about Antonio Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens, etc?  Elite all-time great position players get doubled and have defenses schemed to stop them. 

That's the issue - all the others elite all-time great WRs have the touchdowns and Jones doesn't.  AND, he's played with Matt Ryan.  Look at the QBs that Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson played with their entire careers.  That makes it even more absurd.

[showtime]

I think the mistake I and others are making is that we're comparing Julio Jones to guys like Randy Moss and Terrell Owens.  Jones isn't even on the same planet as those guys.

[scar988]

Just now, showtime said:

I seriously don't understand what argument you're trying to make.  "Julio started seeing straight doubles or bracket zones every single player".... so?  Are you saying that Calvin Johnson and Randy Moss didn't see those same types of coverages?  What about Antonio Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens, etc?  Elite all-time great position players get doubled and have defenses schemed to stop them. 

That's the issue - all the others elite all-time great WRs have the touchdowns and Jones doesn't.  AND, he's played with Matt Ryan.  Look at the QBs that Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson played with their entire careers.  That makes it even more absurd.

Maybe what I need to realize is that Julio Jones is not in the same class as a guy like Larry Fitzgerald.

Or, maybe you need to realize that Larry and Calvin didn't have a No. 2 that could actually get open. Randy was a No. 2 to Carter for years. Rice is the GOAT. So is Owens, I'm not including them on this. And Antonio Brown had an OC that would scheme him open underneath. Julio's primarily just been sent out there to carry the coverages.

[scar988]

Just now, showtime said:

I think the mistake I and others are making is that we're comparing Julio Jones to guys like Randy Moss and Terrell Owens.  Jones isn't even on the same planet as those guys.

No, the issue here is that you're thinking it's on the WR and ONLY the WR to get TDs. Not the case at all. There are times when Julio's wide open, but Ryan throws it elsewhere because it's an even easier throw. How is that on Julio? I don't think he's the GOAT right now. But using TDs for an argument for the WR position shows a complete lack of understanding of how that position actually gets TDs.