The Argument for a 2nd Round WR

[Sllim Pickens]

11 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Yeah, the Hockenson pick was intended to add a versatile, all-around weapon at TE to a strong WR group. The argument here is that one of those WRs will likely not be on the team past this year, and, if we're in position to grab a 1st round prospect in the 2nd round, it would be wise to do so.

I would say contrary to that argument, is that your argument works in a vacuum when lookin gonly at WR.   The same could be said about OTs, RB, LB, CB, DT, and OG.  All are either holes now or will be next year.  I also think its easier to get a WR either through FA or the later rounds of the draft than any other position.  So I am in the I want BPA, with some emphasis on need.  If stud falls to us, then maybe, but also its not really at the top of my list.  

[LionArkie]

12 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

 So I am in the I want BPA, with some emphasis on need.  If stud falls to us, then maybe, but also its not really at the top of my list.  

this is my draft argument as well.  I think too many times we say draft for team need or draft for bpa.  In actuality, I believe drafting the way you suggested is the best practice.

Edited February 13, 2020 by LionArkie

[DavisTyranus]

Why the 2nd though, while I get the logic of adding another playmaker for Stafford, do you really think it’s a good idea to spend a 2nd on that pick while there is still some value of taking Anae or a DB with that 2nd pick, a playmaker of defense who can swing games in our favor. Golliday and if he stays healthy Hockensen are the offensive threats, maybe grabbing a solid possession WR who may not have dynamic burner speed, but crispy routes and sticky fingers to move the sticks. You can find players like that in the 4th or 5th.

[LionArkie]

15 minutes ago, DavisTyranus said:

Why the 2nd though, while I get the logic of adding another playmaker for Stafford, do you really think it’s a good idea to spend a 2nd on that pick while there is still some value of taking Anae or a DB with that 2nd pick, a playmaker of defense who can swing games in our favor. Golliday and if he stays healthy Hockensen are the offensive threats, maybe grabbing a solid possession WR who may not have dynamic burner speed, but crispy routes and sticky fingers to move the sticks. You can find players like that in the 4th or 5th.

I'm not really for it, but I think the thought is a major talent will be there in the second and will payoff better than other positions and help Stafford.  Making the offense better will help us more, faster.

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

11 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I would say contrary to that argument, is that your argument works in a vacuum when lookin gonly at WR.   The same could be said about OTs, RB, LB, CB, DT, and OG.  All are either holes now or will be next year.  I also think its easier to get a WR either through FA or the later rounds of the draft than any other position.  So I am in the I want BPA, with some emphasis on need.  If stud falls to us, then maybe, but also its not really at the top of my list.  

My response to his point was that we can't let selecting Hockenson last year change the way we view this draft, and that Hockenson was intended to add a talented TE to a talented WR group. Allowing those WRs to become depleted seems contrary to that goal.

As for those other positions: one big difference is the importance of Stafford's arm to the success of this team. There's no question that we have to improve on the defensive side of the ball, and that we could use depth at RB and an upgrade on the OLine, but landing a 1st round WR talent at the top of the 2nd would be huge for this team moving forward.

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

Side note:

I was messing around with a pretty realistic Madden sim (draft prospects and final standings were relatively accurate), and my goal was to trade down, obtain a bunch of additional picks and draft Jeudy. After trading down to 5, Jeudy was selected 4th, so I went with Okudah. CeeDee Lamb was still available at 12, and I was able to trade our 2nd and the 2nd and 4th acquired in the trade down to move up and grab Lamb. Jonathan Taylor remained on the board until our 3rd, so I grabbed him there. (The rest of the draft consisted of a DE, C, DE, LB and LB.)

Imagine that: Okudah, Lamb and Taylor with our first 3 picks. That would be insane.

(If you aren't sold, ask yourself this: would you draft Lamb with our 2nd round pick? If yes, moving up with our 2nd and the trade-down compensation would essentially be just that.)

Edited February 14, 2020 by TL-TwoWinsAway

[Sllim Pickens]

7 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

As for those other positions: one big difference is the importance of Stafford's arm to the success of this team. There's no question that we have to improve on the defensive side of the ball, and that we could use depth at RB and an upgrade on the OLine, but landing a 1st round WR talent at the top of the 2nd would be huge for this team moving forward.

I dont think a 1st round WR talent helps Stafford more than protecting him to be able to throw.  I think a 3rd/4th round WR and a 2nd rd OL if a 1st rd talent OL drops helps him more.  At least right now.  And I also think finding one in FA or later in the draft that can have a big impact is much easier at the WR position.  A mid level OG is going to get 10Mil a year.  A Marvin Jones caliber WR depending on age would likely cost 5-8 M a year.  

[Sllim Pickens]

I did a first pick mock and this would get me a little excited for the season with a 2nd round WR. 

Your Picks:
Round 1 Pick 3: Chase Young, DE/OLB, Ohio State (A+)
Round 2 Pick 5 (LAC): Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU (A)
Round 3 Pick 3: Neville Gallimore, DT, Oklahoma (A+)
Round 3 Pick 11 (IND): Josh Uche, OLB/DE, Michigan (A)
Round 4 Pick 3: Calvin Throckmorton, OT, Oregon (A+)
Round 5 Pick 3: DeMarkus Acy, CB, Missouri (A+)
Round 5 Pick 26: Tuf Borland, OLB, Ohio State (A+)
Round 6 Pick 3: Damien Lewis, OG, LSU (A+)

[LionArkie]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I dont think a 1st round WR talent helps Stafford more than protecting him to be able to throw.  I think a 3rd/4th round WR and a 2nd rd OL if a 1st rd talent OL drops helps him more.  At least right now.  And I also think finding one in FA or later in the draft that can have a big impact is much easier at the WR position.  A mid level OG is going to get 10Mil a year.  A Marvin Jones caliber WR depending on age would likely cost 5-8 M a year.  

I'm pretty much in this camp.

 

 

8 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Side note:

I was messing around with a pretty realistic Madden sim (draft prospects and final standings were relatively accurate), and my goal was to trade down, obtain a bunch of additional picks and draft Jeudy. After trading down to 5, Jeudy was selected 4th, so I went with Okudah. CeeDee Lamb was still available at 12, and I was able to trade our 2nd and the 2nd and 4th acquired in the trade down to move up and grab Lamb. Jonathan Taylor remained on the board until our 3rd, so I grabbed him there. (The rest of the draft consisted of a DE, C, DE, LB and LB.)

Imagine that: Okudah, Lamb and Taylor with our first 3 picks. That would be insane.

(If you aren't sold, ask yourself this: would you draft Lamb with our 2nd round pick? If yes, moving up with our 2nd and the trade-down compensation would essentially be just that.)

For me, if I'm moving up to 12 I think I'd rather have Becton, Simmons, Epenesa or Whirfs.  I could also say I'd want them in the second over Lamb.  A better OL would help both Stafford AND Taylor in this scenario.

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I did a first pick mock and this would get me a little excited for the season with a 2nd round WR. 

Your Picks:
Round 1 Pick 3: Chase Young, DE/OLB, Ohio State (A+)
Round 2 Pick 5 (LAC): Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU (A)
Round 3 Pick 3: Neville Gallimore, DT, Oklahoma (A+)
Round 3 Pick 11 (IND): Josh Uche, OLB/DE, Michigan (A)
Round 4 Pick 3: Calvin Throckmorton, OT, Oregon (A+)
Round 5 Pick 3: DeMarkus Acy, CB, Missouri (A+)
Round 5 Pick 26: Tuf Borland, OLB, Ohio State (A+)
Round 6 Pick 3: Damien Lewis, OG, LSU (A+)

Yeah, that looks insane.

[LionArkie]

@TL-TwoWinsAway, just out of curiosity I'm interested in what you think our team needs are.  Take away the win-now mandate, how would you rank our needs in terms of positions? I know you are factoring in bpa as well, but I'm trying to see how it correlates with a 2nd round wr.

Edited February 14, 2020 by LionArkie

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

55 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

@TL-TwoWinsAway, just out of curiosity I'm interesting our team needs.  Take away the win-now mandate, how would you rank our needs in terms of positions? I know you are factoring in bpa as well, but I'm trying to see how it correlates with a 2nd round wr.

Good question.

It's difficult to know exactly what we need prior to the start of free agency, as I feel that many positions can/will be upgraded or supplemented with free agents this year. I do believe that Wagner's time may be coming to an end, and I think bringing Conklin back to MI is a possibility. I also hope that they hold onto Glasgow, and that A'Shawn and Snacks both return. Knowing that, I don't have RT, LG or DT as high as they would be if none of those players were signed or retained.

1. Edge pressure

2. CB

3. WR

4. OG

5. DT depth/prospect

6. LB depth/prospect

7. RB

Without Snacks and A'Shawn, DT moves up substantially, as does OG without Glasgow (or another free agent). I also believe that Hand is a quality rotational piece that was sorely missed in 2019, and him coming back healthy would be huge for this team.

Related topic: a lot of the comparisons I've read for CeeDee Lamb list Odell Beckham or De'Andre Hopkins, true stars in the NFL at the WR position. We may have a more pressing need, but I think landing the best impact player at nearly any position is the better long-term approach.

Edited February 14, 2020 by TL-TwoWinsAway

[LionArkie]

I definitely see where you are coming from, and although I hate it, there is a lot of merit to what you're saying.  One of the things I noticed is your belief on how FA changes your list, which it should.  I've been approaching this as it stands now, as I have no idea what we are going to do in FA.  With that being said, my list is still quite different.

1. DT
2. OG
3. Edge
4. OT
5. DB
6. LB
7. RB
8. QB
9. WR

I feel like, at this moment, WR is our strongest position group going into the 2020 season.  That definitely doesn't mean we shouldn't prepare for some veterans departures in 2021, but in a way, we kind of have already done this.  Galloday, and Hall could be a good combo.  I also feel like picking up a decent WR is relatively easy in FA.  OL/DL not quite as easy and more pricey.  Of course, depending on how FA goes, my list could change completely and I may want to revisit this then, but for now this is where I'm at.

Edited February 14, 2020 by LionArkie

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

Good info. Outside of WR, I don't think we're that far off: if Glasgow, Snacks and A'Shawn don't return, our lists may look relatively similar.

I just don't want to get into a position where Stafford has mediocre weapons around him.

[diehardlionfan]

I think everyone knows I’m a huge believer in building a team inside, outside, front back.

That said if Lamb is available in the second I would be upset if the Lions didn’t draft him. That of course is dependant on what they do in round one. 

If a player with his talent is available in the second I don’t think you pass up the opportunity. The draft only provides so many gifts and if you’re offered one you gleefully rub your hands together and sprint to the podium.